Russia cannot win this "special operation". Their troupes are poorly led, unmotivated, underpaid and lacking in equipment. Throwing conscriptees at the front line won't change a thing. Winter is coming, and it's going to be miserable hunkering down in some trench, waiting for a shell to hit. Meanwhile the Ukrainians feel buoyed every time they take back a small village.
The Russians have left a wake of pillaging, torture and rape. They cannot count on local support. Their military does even get along with the local militia.
It's going to be a rout in the end. I doubt they'll be even able to hold Crimea.
Meanwhile many Russians have apparently decided not to be drafted and crossed into sympathetic neighbours.
The Georgian border was rammed and some of the Baltic States are faced with the thorny issue of not wanting an influx of young Russian men that hugely upsets their domestic politics, but recognising it is a sign of Putin's desperation.
As a somewhat extreme 'tabloid' example, the Alaskan authorities have taken in two guys who arrived by small boat on an outlying fishing island which is closer to Siberia than the US State.
It has predictably caught the headlines, but maybe also suggests an underlying tension.
Standing-up to Putin - through mass civil disobedience - is clearly not a currently sane or viable option. You're looking at prison and Putin retains a significant internal, and still loyal and capable, security apparatus.
My best guess is that is this is a long runner. With Putin and his war party suffering a death by a thousand cuts, losing the fight village-by-village, sanctions biting slowly but surely and the troop surges dwindling and being of little consequence.
