Ukraine advances in the war

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Bodyshot3
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Bodyshot3 »

Putin annexes bits of Ukraine officially. Upping the ante. Next couple of weeks could be interesting.

This could be the Moscow exit strategy politically and militarily laid bare.

Especially as the devour/topple Ukraine 'whole and quickly' effort has been a singular, humiliating failure and biting back hard - even Putin must be beyond the Special Operation BS now and needs to accept the Ukraine is not a false construct.

It's a full-blown war and the Ukrainians - in some places - are potentially able to drive into Russia if they so wish.

I suspect that Putin is trying to keep some turf - needs to visibly demonstrate "a gain for Russia" to save his hide - but is now far more eager to speak with Kiev and on equal, different terms.
conan_the_cribber
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by conan_the_cribber »

Russia cannot win this "special operation". Their troupes are poorly led, unmotivated, underpaid and lacking in equipment. Throwing conscriptees at the front line won't change a thing. Winter is coming, and it's going to be miserable hunkering down in some trench, waiting for a shell to hit. Meanwhile the Ukrainians feel buoyed every time they take back a small village.

The Russians have left a wake of pillaging, torture and rape. They cannot count on local support. Their military does even get along with the local militia.

It's going to be a rout in the end. I doubt they'll be even able to hold Crimea.
Bodyshot3
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Bodyshot3 »

Russia cannot win this "special operation". Their troupes are poorly led, unmotivated, underpaid and lacking in equipment. Throwing conscriptees at the front line won't change a thing. Winter is coming, and it's going to be miserable hunkering down in some trench, waiting for a shell to hit. Meanwhile the Ukrainians feel buoyed every time they take back a small village.

The Russians have left a wake of pillaging, torture and rape. They cannot count on local support. Their military does even get along with the local militia.

It's going to be a rout in the end. I doubt they'll be even able to hold Crimea.
Meanwhile many Russians have apparently decided not to be drafted and crossed into sympathetic neighbours.

The Georgian border was rammed and some of the Baltic States are faced with the thorny issue of not wanting an influx of young Russian men that hugely upsets their domestic politics, but recognising it is a sign of Putin's desperation.

As a somewhat extreme 'tabloid' example, the Alaskan authorities have taken in two guys who arrived by small boat on an outlying fishing island which is closer to Siberia than the US State.

It has predictably caught the headlines, but maybe also suggests an underlying tension.

Standing-up to Putin - through mass civil disobedience - is clearly not a currently sane or viable option. You're looking at prison and Putin retains a significant internal, and still loyal and capable, security apparatus.

My best guess is that is this is a long runner. With Putin and his war party suffering a death by a thousand cuts, losing the fight village-by-village, sanctions biting slowly but surely and the troop surges dwindling and being of little consequence.
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by coneye »

Think one thing thats come out of this is , Russia are not the super power they thought they were ,, Ok they have nuclear ,, but so does everyone else would they press the button because a mad man told them too knowing full well they and there famillies are next ,,,

Leaving normal forces they just are not up to it on a grand scale ,, American generals will probably be thankful of all this , thinking they arn't all there cracked up to be , we fancy it now
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Coco »

coneye wrote: 07 Oct 2022, 14:58 Think one thing thats come out of this is , Russia are not the super power they thought they were ,, Ok they have nuclear ,, but so does everyone else would they press the button because a mad man told them too knowing full well they and there famillies are next ,,,

Leaving normal forces they just are not up to it on a grand scale ,, American generals will probably be thankful of all this , thinking they arn't all there cracked up to be , we fancy it now
Remember too that having nuclear bombs and detonating them are very different things.
It's not like bullets and a gun.
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by coneye »

Coco wrote: 07 Oct 2022, 15:06
coneye wrote: 07 Oct 2022, 14:58 Think one thing thats come out of this is , Russia are not the super power they thought they were ,, Ok they have nuclear ,, but so does everyone else would they press the button because a mad man told them too knowing full well they and there famillies are next ,,,

Leaving normal forces they just are not up to it on a grand scale ,, American generals will probably be thankful of all this , thinking they arn't all there cracked up to be , we fancy it now
Remember too that having nuclear bombs and detonating them are very different things.
It's not like bullets and a gun.
Correct and thats my point , doubt Putin will run to the war room and push the buttons himself , load ready to fire , blast off would be done by others ,, push comes to shove WOULD they do it or turn on a madman
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by BoxBuzz »

I don't disagree, AND They have to able to assess that he is indeed a madman. This depends on just how effective he has been in packing his cabinet with cronies whose only gift is loyalty.

We can only hope he was incompetent in that area. Any bets on that?
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by jimmystone »

It is now clear to see that the Russian army has nowhere near the manpower the personnel dept are paying for. Not hard to work out what has been going on over there. Same as ANA in Afghanistan. Somewhere there's a lot of money being skimmed for ghost employees. It is biting them on the arse now. Corruption again. Greed will eat you up, people.
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Ricky »

Looks like Russia's tin pot army never really recovered much from being stuck in the mud right at kick off. Every time Putin mentions his nuclear arsenal he just looks more and more desperate, there's no logic to it. Where exactly does detonating a nuclear bomb help the boots on the ground losing in the trenches and woodlands?
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by The Gratest »

It would be a helluva way to end these 'Military drills' that they started back in February.
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Counter-puncher »

jimmystone wrote: 07 Oct 2022, 17:02 It is now clear to see that the Russian army has nowhere near the manpower the personnel dept are paying for. Not hard to work out what has been going on over there.
interesting, you're better informed than I am, how is this apparent (and from what sources or stories)? cheers :TU:
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Fray Bentos »

Ricky wrote: 07 Oct 2022, 22:50 Looks like Russia's tin pot army never really recovered much from being stuck in the mud right at kick off. Every time Putin mentions his nuclear arsenal he just looks more and more desperate, there's no logic to it. Where exactly does detonating a nuclear bomb help the boots on the ground losing in the trenches and woodlands?
This wasn't the original plan or so it seems, it looked like a 'blitzkrieg' of some sort, four days or so to enter Kyiv and probably arrest and kill Zelensky and get out of there whilst taking the Donbas, the tanks getting stuck in the mud en route to Kyiv was the first sign that things weren't going to go to plan.

That and the tactics etc used by the Russians will be known to the Ukrainians as they were part of the same army up until 1991. That they're being armed by NATO means they have the upper hand. I didn't think it would take this short of time for Putin to recruit 60 year olds and from the prisons - that in itself shows he is near to capitulating there. Hitler was recruiting/conscripting children and old men just before his regime capitulated.
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by BigGar »

Crimean bridge extensively damaged now. If this is down to Ukraine it shows just how confident and daring they are becoming.
Bodyshot3
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Bodyshot3 »

That and the tactics etc used by the Russians will be known to the Ukrainians as they were part of the same army up until 1991. That they're being armed by NATO means they have the upper hand. I didn't think it would take this short of time for Putin to recruit 60 year olds and from the prisons - that in itself shows he is near to capitulating there. Hitler was recruiting/conscripting children and old men just before his regime.

That's a worthwhile comparison Fray :salut:
Additionally, the Third Reich was already hugely reliant on millions of unpaid Eastern European industrial workers.

Personally, I'd be seriously interested to get some more reliable information on how much longer the Russian economy can viably fund this war before imploding.

Every month that ticks past means the bill accumulates, yet nobody is precisely sure how much Russia is still earning, and the rouble seems to be a deliberately propped-up currency, largely underpinned by the vital Petro-Chemical earnings.

GDP is set to contract by 10% this year whilst Putin is also increasing state pensions and increasing borrowing on some very unfavourable terms.

Sanctions do sting but are only one part of an overall equation and won't bring the house tumbling down...

...but calling up 300,000 extra men creates a serious food and payroll burden and the Russians are also essentially bankrolling the parts of Ukraine they currently occupy.

The Russian Finance Minister recently claimed they can afford this annexation bill - the money is apparently there and was earmarked - but I suspect that calculation is entirely bogus and a case of grandstanding. The original premise was that a rapid Special Operation would supposedly eat the Ukraine whole in a couple of weeks.

Putin actually has two wars to fight - one against the Ukrainians in the ditches, villages and cities - and another against a shrinking economy that needs to spend far more and an opponent that has a better credit line.
Bodyshot3
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Bodyshot3 »

Sorry about all the bold text folks.....something seems to have gone wrong :lol:
Nightmare Roy
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Nightmare Roy »

Bodyshot3 wrote: 08 Oct 2022, 14:35 Sorry about all the bold text folks.....something seems to have gone wrong :lol:
No problem it's when people type in caps I get offended :lol:
margaret thatcher
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by margaret thatcher »

seamus please give us good news for daddy pootin
Nightmare Roy
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Nightmare Roy »

margaret thatcher wrote: 08 Oct 2022, 15:19 seamus please give us good news for daddy pootin
Tick Tock Tick Tock....

Jake Savage
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Jake Savage »

If you're China, you want to be the #1 World Superpower.

A Russian defeat would be a bad thing for China because that would strengthen "The West" and ultimately weaken China's geopolitical and international position. Within China, there is a feeling that despite possessing the World's largest economy, they have no real international pull, and are seen as a "Western Lapdog". So, if you're China, you either accept being a perennial #2 to the current system, or you're interested in establishing a new world order and if that's what you want to do, you would likely support states like Russia North Korea and Iran.

I personally am on the side of peace. In the West, we are propagated with images of Ukrainian gains and victories but it's important to note that still, today, almost 25% of their pre2014 territory is under Russian control. This is a conflict that could take years to play out in its entirety. Might I add, Ukraine had received more weapons, assistance, and funding from NATO in this conflict than any nation in history. By proxy, Russia is not just fighting Ukraine, they are by proxy facing NATO. May I also add, Russia for the most part has not introduced its airforce and bombing capabilities to this conflict. Ukraine right now, is well armed and has received more military assistance than any nation in recent history. This is not a campaign against nomadic terrorists living in Mountains who barely had rifles like we saw in Iraq or Afghanistan in USA. Ukraine has had state of the art arms and weapons supplied to them and right now their arms would be on par with or exceed any nation in Western Europe. This is not just Russia invading Ukraine, this conflict is by proxy Russia VS NATO and NATO has done their best to arm the Ukrainians to the point they have state of the art arms comparable to any Western Power aside from having nukes.

You do hope peace will prevail on both sides and nukes is the no go area that will kill us all. Interesting times we are living in. I think at the end of the day Putin is a nutter and he will need to be negotiated with (as in Ukraine cedes 25% of its land), or overthrown by his own people.

I could see Putin using a small nuke, like Hiroshima and Nagasaki, on Ukrainian territory if he feels he's backed up to the wall. The dynamics of this conflict would change in an instant if that happened. He's nuts enough to do it. God Help us all and Pray for the Young People of today.
conan_the_cribber
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by conan_the_cribber »

Blowing up the Kersh bridge on Putin's birthday, now that was a statement. It was really, a "you're fücked" statement i.e. we can do whatever we want, because we are superior to you in every single way statement. The only thing that the world can hope for, is that Putin doesn't start throwing nukes around.

Putin has recently changed the leadership of the army in Ukraine. I imagine it's like re-arranging the deck-chairs on the titanic. There's no way a new general can perform the re-organisation needed to "win" this war. That will take 20 years of institutional change and in the mean time, so many career soldiers are dead and being replaced with unwilling conscriptees fighting for what? A war in a country that they never should've invaded in order to distract people from Putin's corruption? The new leadership doesn't have a chance either.

Meanwhile, it's getting cold and estimates of 20K Russian soldiers trapped near Kherson, unable to cross the river to the Russian occupied side, an unable to be supplied. It's going to be a disastrous couple of months for the new leadership.
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by coneye »

Jake Savage wrote: 08 Oct 2022, 16:27 If you're China, you want to be the #1 World Superpower.

A Russian defeat would be a bad thing for China because that would strengthen "The West" and ultimately weaken China's geopolitical and international position. Within China, there is a feeling that despite possessing the World's largest economy, they have no real international pull, and are seen as a "Western Lapdog".

Think the thing is China are really a victim of there own success , Has much has they may feel there a real world super power , fats are , that billion people population cannott feed there 400 million armed forcesces WITHOUT the help of the western world , so big note bluster all they want ,If theres a war they need there enemys too survive
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Nightmare Roy »

conan_the_cribber wrote: 09 Oct 2022, 06:07 Blowing up the Kersh bridge on Putin's birthday, now that was a statement. It was really, a "you're fücked" statement i.e. we can do whatever we want, because we are superior to you in every single way statement. The only thing that the world can hope for, is that Putin doesn't start throwing nukes around.

Putin has recently changed the leadership of the army in Ukraine. I imagine it's like re-arranging the deck-chairs on the titanic. There's no way a new general can perform the re-organisation needed to "win" this war. That will take 20 years of institutional change and in the mean time, so many career soldiers are dead and being replaced with unwilling conscriptees fighting for what? A war in a country that they never should've invaded in order to distract people from Putin's corruption? The new leadership doesn't have a chance either.

Meanwhile, it's getting cold and estimates of 20K Russian soldiers trapped near Kherson, unable to cross the river to the Russian occupied side, an unable to be supplied. It's going to be a disastrous couple of months for the new leadership.
I'm guessing he wish he never started this now.
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Baby Face Finster »

Nightmare Roy wrote: 09 Oct 2022, 06:29
conan_the_cribber wrote: 09 Oct 2022, 06:07 Blowing up the Kersh bridge on Putin's birthday, now that was a statement. It was really, a "you're fücked" statement i.e. we can do whatever we want, because we are superior to you in every single way statement. The only thing that the world can hope for, is that Putin doesn't start throwing nukes around.

Putin has recently changed the leadership of the army in Ukraine. I imagine it's like re-arranging the deck-chairs on the titanic. There's no way a new general can perform the re-organisation needed to "win" this war. That will take 20 years of institutional change and in the mean time, so many career soldiers are dead and being replaced with unwilling conscriptees fighting for what? A war in a country that they never should've invaded in order to distract people from Putin's corruption? The new leadership doesn't have a chance either.

Meanwhile, it's getting cold and estimates of 20K Russian soldiers trapped near Kherson, unable to cross the river to the Russian occupied side, an unable to be supplied. It's going to be a disastrous couple of months for the new leadership.
I'm guessing he wish he never started this now.
Putain thought he could simply steamroll and take over the Ukraine in a few weeks. He thought wrong.
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by conan_the_cribber »

Baby Face Finster wrote: 09 Oct 2022, 08:55
Nightmare Roy wrote: 09 Oct 2022, 06:29
conan_the_cribber wrote: 09 Oct 2022, 06:07 Blowing up the Kersh bridge on Putin's birthday, now that was a statement. It was really, a "you're fücked" statement i.e. we can do whatever we want, because we are superior to you in every single way statement. The only thing that the world can hope for, is that Putin doesn't start throwing nukes around.

Putin has recently changed the leadership of the army in Ukraine. I imagine it's like re-arranging the deck-chairs on the titanic. There's no way a new general can perform the re-organisation needed to "win" this war. That will take 20 years of institutional change and in the mean time, so many career soldiers are dead and being replaced with unwilling conscriptees fighting for what? A war in a country that they never should've invaded in order to distract people from Putin's corruption? The new leadership doesn't have a chance either.

Meanwhile, it's getting cold and estimates of 20K Russian soldiers trapped near Kherson, unable to cross the river to the Russian occupied side, an unable to be supplied. It's going to be a disastrous couple of months for the new leadership.
I'm guessing he wish he never started this now.
Putain thought he could simply steamroll and take over the Ukraine in a few weeks. He thought wrong.
Biggest scale military miscalculation since Göring said he could supply the encircled 6th Army outside of Stalingrad. For those that don't know, the Germans had the choice, break out in one direction, or sit there and be re-supplied. Göring said he could supply them, but had neither the planes, the pilots, the fuel to do it, and on top of that, the planes that could fly, were badly affected by the freezing temperatures. It resulted in the complete defeat of the 6th army and the end of the Nazis basically.
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Re: Ukraine advances in the war

Post by Coco »

It would have been interesting to see what the West would have done if Russia had steamrolled the Ukraine.

Would they have just left things as they did in the Crimea?

I suppose if the Ukrainan forces had joined the Russians it would have been a different story.

Instead the Ukranian forces have demonstrated unbelievable courage beyond the call of duty, and of course the Investment in the defence of the Ukraine has been unprecedented
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