Re: Golovkin is a bigger draw in California than Ward
Posted: 29 Oct 2014, 22:09
You again refuse to answer the question I posed up top so I'll assume that you don't want to concede a hole in your argument.
1. It's perfectly consistent with GGG's ratings increasing due to him being promoted more heavily in the US, which would account for both his numbers and the numbers that undercard bouts did.
2. Donaire fighting in California doesn't necessarily equate to a disproportionately large number of Californians watching his fight on TV. By similar logic I could diminish Ward's career best TV ratings against Dawson because in addition to being an A side on HBO and Showtime multiple times the latter is an American. Similarly, Rodriguez has lived in the USA since he was a young teenager and he fought for the US as an amateur. One could then suggest that GGG's recent HBO opponents generally disadvantaged him because Macklin is British, Geale is Australian, and Rubio is Mexican, and I can offer support for this by noting that the further an opponent's country is to the US the lower the ratings were.
One thing I did note is that the fight was nearly sold out before Donaire's bout was added and there were loud chants of 'Triple G' while there was nothing comparable for Donaire.
3. Entering the Ward bout Dawson was a well-known name to boxing fans and had ratings that were comparable to Donaire's: 1.6m for Hopkins, 1.1m for Pascal, and 1.0m for Stevenson. The impact of Dawson on the 1.3m him vs Ward drew is another topic you keep avoiding.
Donaire and Walters split $575k, so I wouldn't say that the former's purse was 'massive; maybe that applies better to the $1 million that Rodriguez was initially being paid. I've mentioned this countless times, and you refuse to address it, but if you add Donaire and Walters' purses to GGG and Rubio's you still end up below $2 million paid for a 1.3m average, which means better ratings than Ward-Rod for around $1 million cheaper. That means that someone was either overpaid or underpaid based on drawn viewers, which means purses need not correspond precisely to drawing power.
I also think it's pretty laughable, to use a word that you're sensitive about, to simply throw out GGG's ratings like that without doing the same to Ward's.
If you're not a fan of arguing with people who dishonestly misquote statistics and you think I'm guilty of that, maybe you shouldn't argue with me. I'm not particularly fond of people continually dodging questions, attributing claims to me that I never made, and cherry picking two words of an extensive post I made only to then complain that it was me who was trying to be elusive, but I still generally enjoy the debate.
Dan Rafael: According to Nielsen, last Saturdays' Andre Ward-Edwin Rodriguez fight on HBO drew 1.2M viewers, peaking at 1.3M. Considering HBO paid $3.15M for the fight that's poor.
Even assuming the higher figure of 1.2m for the $3.15 m Ward-Rod, it was still eclipsed by GGG's rating for his bouts with Stevens and Rubio so the question remains. Are you going to dodge it again?If you’re going to try to force me to ask questions, at least use an accurate premise.
Here are the average HBO viewing figures for Gennady Golovkin’s last four fights (average figures quoted by Dan Rafael using figures supplied by Nielsen):
• Rubio = 1.304m
• Geale = 984K
• Stevens = 1.41m
• Macklin = 1.097m
Here are Andre Ward’s only HBO viewing figures (average figures quoted by Dan Rafael using figures supplied by Nielsen):
• Edwin Rodriguez = 1.2m (peaked at 1.3m)
• Chad Dawson = 1.3m
Some shortcomings of your evidence:What evidence do you have that Donaire was the reason for those ratings, and that he was any more a boost to the them than Dawson was to the figure his fight with Ward did?
I keep on having to copy and paste the same posts time-and-time again... and it’s getting really tedious:
Here are the facts:
• The Gennady Golovkin & Marco Antonio Rubio contest was staged in the US state of California.
• Gennady Golovkin & Marco Antonio Rubio had NEVER EVER fought in the state of California prior to the 18th October, 2014.
• Nonito Donaire had fought in California 13 times and it was his third time that he fought in Carson (the location of Golovkin-Rubio).
• Nonito Donaire grew up in California, got married there and currently lives there.
• Nonito Donaire is a popular fighter, because his fights against Arce, Rigondeaux & Darchinyan attracted 1.3m, 1.1m & 1m HBO viewers respectively.
• The supporting bout for Golovkin-Geale was Jennings-Perez, who split a $190K fight purse, with the HBO figures bringing in a disappointing 984K viewers.
• The supporting bout for Golovkin-Rubio was Donaire-Walters, who split a $575K fight purse, which drew 1.3m HBO viewers.
• Almost 1.2m HBO viewers watched the Donaire versus Walters fight.
• An average of 714K HBO viewers watched the Jennings-Perez supporting bout.
1. It's perfectly consistent with GGG's ratings increasing due to him being promoted more heavily in the US, which would account for both his numbers and the numbers that undercard bouts did.
2. Donaire fighting in California doesn't necessarily equate to a disproportionately large number of Californians watching his fight on TV. By similar logic I could diminish Ward's career best TV ratings against Dawson because in addition to being an A side on HBO and Showtime multiple times the latter is an American. Similarly, Rodriguez has lived in the USA since he was a young teenager and he fought for the US as an amateur. One could then suggest that GGG's recent HBO opponents generally disadvantaged him because Macklin is British, Geale is Australian, and Rubio is Mexican, and I can offer support for this by noting that the further an opponent's country is to the US the lower the ratings were.
One thing I did note is that the fight was nearly sold out before Donaire's bout was added and there were loud chants of 'Triple G' while there was nothing comparable for Donaire.
3. Entering the Ward bout Dawson was a well-known name to boxing fans and had ratings that were comparable to Donaire's: 1.6m for Hopkins, 1.1m for Pascal, and 1.0m for Stevenson. The impact of Dawson on the 1.3m him vs Ward drew is another topic you keep avoiding.
I'm not convinced that it played a particularly large role, and more specifically I'm not convinced that it was any larger than the role played by Chad Dawson in his bout with Ward drawing 1.3m.So do you really believe that HBO paying a big name Californian resident (Nonito Donaire) a massive purse to be involved in the supporting bout of Golovkin-Rubio, which was coincidentally staged in California, played no part whatsoever in the commercial success of the Golovkin-Rubio contest, when the fighters involved in the main event had NEVER EVER fought in that US state before?
Donaire and Walters split $575k, so I wouldn't say that the former's purse was 'massive; maybe that applies better to the $1 million that Rodriguez was initially being paid. I've mentioned this countless times, and you refuse to address it, but if you add Donaire and Walters' purses to GGG and Rubio's you still end up below $2 million paid for a 1.3m average, which means better ratings than Ward-Rod for around $1 million cheaper. That means that someone was either overpaid or underpaid based on drawn viewers, which means purses need not correspond precisely to drawing power.
GGG's averages are dragged down by his mediocre early numbers, but this thread is about current drawing power. If you ignore Ward's averages against Dawson and Rodriguez they'll be significantly under a million as well.As I’ve already stated, "with the exception of the Stevens & Rubio bouts, Golovkin’s average viewing figures are far less than one million" (i.e. 895,500).
The figure you’ve dishonestly quoted for the Ward-Rodriguez fight was well short of the actual numbers quoted by Nielsen (i.e. average of 1.2m, with a peak of 1.3m).
I also think it's pretty laughable, to use a word that you're sensitive about, to simply throw out GGG's ratings like that without doing the same to Ward's.
I never cited anything dishonestly. If that figure is incorrect then I was mistaken, but I never portrayed any number as accurate while knowing that it wasn't.To be honest, I’m not a big fan of arguing with people who misquote statistics as a dishonest debating tactic!
If you're not a fan of arguing with people who dishonestly misquote statistics and you think I'm guilty of that, maybe you shouldn't argue with me. I'm not particularly fond of people continually dodging questions, attributing claims to me that I never made, and cherry picking two words of an extensive post I made only to then complain that it was me who was trying to be elusive, but I still generally enjoy the debate.
I may be incorrect about the figures, but it doesn't change the key points of my argument. In our discussions about the Smith-AA rematch you suggested that Rafael is a credible source and implied that his opinion should be valued, so here's what he said about Ward-Rodriguez from a business perspective:The figures you’ve quoted for the Ward-Rodriguez bout is contradicted by ESPN, Dan Rafael and Nielsen Media Research. It actually averaged 1.2m viewers, but peaked at 1.3m viewers.
You’ve got your figures from Steve Kim, who’s a boxing scribe (via BS.com)? So who do you think are supplies more reliable figures? Steve Kim… or ESPN, Dan Rafael and Nielsen Media Research?
Dan Rafael: According to Nielsen, last Saturdays' Andre Ward-Edwin Rodriguez fight on HBO drew 1.2M viewers, peaking at 1.3M. Considering HBO paid $3.15M for the fight that's poor.
The points are perfectly relevant because they consider how much each fighter was being paid and how many viewers watched them fight. I suspect that you're dodging the questions because they make flaws in your argument apparent.I won’t bother to discuss other points you’ve raised, because I refuse to be distracted from our original topic of discussion.