Betting thread

[keithmoonhangover]

Is everyone agreed that Chisora scoring a turgid decision over Kevin Johnson is a pretty safe bet at 4/7?

I can't see it going the distance mate. Johnson doesn't have a lot of foot movement and will likely be in front of Chisora for most of the fight. He relies on covering up and countering. Against Fury he was forced to try and chase Fury and really struggled to get off. He won't have that problem with Chisora and Chisora's style will give Johnson a lot more opportunity to counter. Del's chin ain't what it used to be, add to that Chisora style lends itself to wearing people down and land the odd bomb. I just can't see this one going the distance, it might, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Are you saying you fancy Johnson by stoppage?
I see your point about the styles meaning a stoppage is more likely in the sense they'll probably be in a phone booth, but I don't see Del's come-forward style as suddenly lighting a fire under Kevin. In my book, Johnson can always be relied upon to not show up.

Just think that Johnson's negativity will see Chisora pounding away on arms and elbows all night but with not much coming back. Johnson might have the odd moment, because as you point out it will be contested at close quarters, but Kevin's toughness and Del's lack of power equals decision for Del for me.

I think it's possible that Johnson could win by stoppage, it's also possible that Del could wear him down for the stoppage. There's also the possibility of a hometown stoppage and Chisora could well win on points.

I wouldn't bet on this fight because there are too many possibilities.

[black panther]

I can't see it going the distance mate. Johnson doesn't have a lot of foot movement and will likely be in front of Chisora for most of the fight. He relies on covering up and countering. Against Fury he was forced to try and chase Fury and really struggled to get off. He won't have that problem with Chisora and Chisora's style will give Johnson a lot more opportunity to counter. Del's chin ain't what it used to be, add to that Chisora style lends itself to wearing people down and land the odd bomb. I just can't see this one going the distance, it might, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Are you saying you fancy Johnson by stoppage?
I see your point about the styles meaning a stoppage is more likely in the sense they'll probably be in a phone booth, but I don't see Del's come-forward style as suddenly lighting a fire under Kevin. In my book, Johnson can always be relied upon to not show up.

Just think that Johnson's negativity will see Chisora pounding away on arms and elbows all night but with not much coming back. Johnson might have the odd moment, because as you point out it will be contested at close quarters, but Kevin's toughness and Del's lack of power equals decision for Del for me.

I think it's possible that Johnson could win by stoppage, it's also possible that Del could wear him down for the stoppage. There's also the possibility of a hometown stoppage and Chisora could well win on points.

I wouldn't bet on this fight because there are too many possibilities.

Yeah I was thinking on just putting a little on Chisora in 6-12 for fun. Plus I could envisage Chisora flurrying a bit and the ref jumping in for a very "British" stoppage.

[Bard of Boxrec]

Put a tenner on the following outrageous accumulator at 264/1

Abell KO
Wlad points
Crawford
Chisora points

Don't exactly expect to get it back but it would be a fun sweat if Abell can land a home run punch vs Fury.

[domjon]

I'm having a small punt on Johnson to stop Chisora. Del's chin looks positively shaky these days and while Johnson probably aint going to be the one to prove it 12/1 is too big a price to pass up on.

[Bard of Boxrec]

Yeah I originally thought Chisora UD all day but I've been thinking about it more and Keith kinda made me think Johnson might do it.

But then Kevin is so bored and sluggish and moribund

AARRGHHH WHAT TO DO

I agree 12/1 is good value.

[Boxing Prospect]

Holy chit, only just saw this. Bloody hell, nice job! Can you tell us about the 10/1 shot?

Rey Loreto is a young Filipino who, who picked up a lot of losses early in his career. He lost his first 4 and 7 of his first 13. A number of those however were controversial and very close.

From around 2011 he was used a journeyman in Asia, notable Thailand, and whilst he often lost he was fighting high calibre guys such as Yodngoen Tor Chalermchai (who faced Ioka), Paipharob Kokietgym and Noknoi Sitthiprasert and whilst he lost all 3 of those bouts he did upset Wisanu Kokietgym (another who faced Ioka).

The reason I backed him to beat Joyi however was from watching his fight with Pornsawan Porpramook (which I felt was one of the biggest upsets of 2013, even though few gave it any attention). Although the cards suggest it was close, it really wasn't. Loreto battered Porpramook until a cut forced the end of the bout.

At just 23 years old Loreto is potentially a world champion (and not just an IBF one) despite his scratchy 18-13 (10) record. Young, hungry, talented, in great form and experienced I'd keep an eye on him

[Bard of Boxrec]

Thanks, amazing a guy like that could be priced so long, did the price shorten with any insider money since you put the bet down? What were the stoppage odds?

Do you think the lower weights might offer better value opportunities in the same way a non-league football match might? (less exposure and interest, less attention from oddsmakers)

[Boxing Prospect]

Thanks, amazing a guy like that could be priced so long, did the price shorten with any insider money since you put the bet down? What were the stoppage odds?

Do you think the lower weights might offer better value opportunities in the same way a non-league football match might? (less exposure and interest, less attention from oddsmakers)

Bet365 had him at 8/1 at the same time sky had him at 10/1 so there was always money on him. Bet365 had odds on the stoppage at 13/1 not sure on Sky unfortunately.

Lower weights probably do offer more value over-all but then again they don't tend to be offered that often (I can only see 1 currently on oddschecker and that's Gonzalez v Kantun).

Whilst on the subject of "not being offered" who is worth contacting about request bets? There's a few bouts I want pricing up from the East.

[domjon]

Yeah I originally thought Chisora UD all day but I've been thinking about it more and Keith kinda made me think Johnson might do it.

But then Kevin is so bored and sluggish and moribund

AARRGHHH WHAT TO DO

I agree 12/1 is good value.

Not a fight to have a decent bet on imo. Chisora points is the logical outcome but when Johnson shells up and throws nothing you just know the ref will be itching in to jump in...

[MR T]

i think I'm gonna throw Harris in an accumulator. I watched a bit of Skeete/Lynes but got bored, Skeete seemed to be fairly solid? I think Harris is likely to be in disinterested opponent mode but what the hey, it's an accumulator. Will do a few variations.

Does anyone know anything about the BETDAQ £500 bonus? It babbles on about 'accumulating commission', have no idea how to clear the bonus though? Anyone use this service before? thanks

Every time you accumulate 100 in paid commission you get a 25 free bet. You pay a small percentage commission every time you win. It's a good offer if you gamble regularly or large sums. If you bet the odd tenner here and there it will take a lifetime.

Thanks mate, any chance you could put this into an example though please? EG, I deposit 500, I bet X, at odds of X, I win, I pay X commission, that releases £25? I can put the £25 on at odds of x, or any odds?
Thanks

I'm not an expert but will have a go - You deposit £100, you bet £50 on a football team, win £100 profit, pay £4.50 commission (total bank £145.50), you then bet £100 on a horse, win £300 profit, pay £13.50 commission (total bank £432 and you've paid £18 in total commission), as you continue to bet the commission you pay accumulates, every time you pass £100 in paid commission you get a free £25 bet.

The free £25 bet does not include that stake being returned so if you bet it at even money, you will just get the £25 winnings.

I think its quite a good deal because you essentially will end up with £500 of free bets just for betting as you would normally. Obviously you need to understand how the exchange (betdaq/ladbrokes in this case) works but its relatively simple once you know how.

[MR T]

Does anyone know anything about the BETDAQ £500 bonus? It babbles on about 'accumulating commission', have no idea how to clear the bonus though? Anyone use this service before? thanks

Every time you accumulate 100 in paid commission you get a 25 free bet. You pay a small percentage commission every time you win. It's a good offer if you gamble regularly or large sums. If you bet the odd tenner here and there it will take a lifetime.

Thanks mate, any chance you could put this into an example though please? EG, I deposit 500, I bet X, at odds of X, I win, I pay X commission, that releases £25? I can put the £25 on at odds of x, or any odds?
Thanks[/quote]

I'm not an expert but will have a go - You deposit £100, you bet £50 on a football team, win £100 profit, pay £4.50 commission (total bank £145.50), you then bet £100 on a horse, win £300 profit, pay £13.50 commission (total bank £432 and you've paid £18 in total commission), as you continue to bet the commission you pay accumulates, every time you pass £100 in paid commission you get a free £25 bet.

The free £25 bet does not include that stake being returned so if you bet it at even money, you will just get the £25 winnings.

I think its quite a good deal because you essentially will end up with £500 of free bets just for betting as you would normally. Obviously you need to understand how the exchange (betdaq/ladbrokes in this case) works but its relatively simple once you know how.[/quote]

*Just to add this is assuming a commission rate of 4.5%

[Bard of Boxrec]

Thanks. OK so you pay the commission on the profit only? Makes sense from their point of view as it encourages mugs to bet on no-hopers to clear their free bets easier.

The commission for Betdaq is 3 per cent apparently.

Sounds like it could take ages as you said to release the full bonus...was kind of hoping it was the bet £500 and receive £500 to bet on odds of 1/2 or better type deal, but that would probably have been too good to be true. That sort of deal does exist for some sites but the best deal is £100 i think.

[Bard of Boxrec]

Yeah I originally thought Chisora UD all day but I've been thinking about it more and Keith kinda made me think Johnson might do it.

But then Kevin is so bored and sluggish and moribund

AARRGHHH WHAT TO DO

I agree 12/1 is good value.

Not a fight to have a decent bet on imo. Chisora points is the logical outcome but when Johnson shells up and throws nothing you just know the ref will be itching in to jump in...

Not sure I agree actually in this case. The ref will probably know about Johnson's toughness and that he doesn't get hit clean a lot, and that's worth a lot when a ref is leaning in assessing whether a guy is taking too much punishment. I think Johnson will get a fair shake here.

[Boxing Prospect]

Johnson's laziness means I rule him out completely hear. He is classy as hell when he opens up but he seems to open up as much as a Scotman's wallet.

[domjon]

Yeah I originally thought Chisora UD all day but I've been thinking about it more and Keith kinda made me think Johnson might do it.

But then Kevin is so bored and sluggish and moribund

AARRGHHH WHAT TO DO

I agree 12/1 is good value.

Not a fight to have a decent bet on imo. Chisora points is the logical outcome but when Johnson shells up and throws nothing you just know the ref will be itching in to jump in...

Not sure I agree actually in this case. The ref will probably know about Johnson's toughness and that he doesn't get hit clean a lot, and that's worth a lot when a ref is leaning in assessing whether a guy is taking too much punishment. I think Johnson will get a fair shake here.

I suppose it depends on whether you view these stoppages as incompetence or corruption...a well informed ref might also know about Dels recent wobbles and look for any opportunity to jump in and protect the Money Pot that comes with Chisora-Fury

[keithmoonhangover]

AARRGHHH WHAT TO DO

Don't bet anything on the fight mate.

[The Insider]

AARRGHHH WHAT TO DO

Don't bet anything on the fight mate.

Better still don't bet on anything this weekend.

[palooka]

He can't help himself, he's probably betting on which rain drop reaches the bottom of the window right now

[Bard of Boxrec]

Not true, I love gambling like a dear son but 'YOU GOTTA KNOW WHEN TO FOLD 'EM AND WHEN TO HOLD 'EM!'

Boxing Prospect has alerted the betting community to Shafikov over Vasquez...HIT ME! Shafikov is busy and handy with some solid wins while Vasquez is coming off a long layoff. I think it looks a pick em but Shafikov is on the table at 2/1. Accumulator play!

[Boxing Prospect]

Another reason to favour Shafikov is that Quintero, another shortish southpaw like Shafikov, gave Vazquez hell AND Shafiov has recently signed with Top Rank himself.

[keithmoonhangover]

Not true, I love gambling like a dear son but 'YOU GOTTA KNOW WHEN TO FOLD 'EM AND WHEN TO HOLD 'EM!'

You can't beat a bit of Kenny Rogers in the afternoon.

[Bard of Boxrec]

Kevin Johnson has said in the press conference the only person who has stopped him is his momma.
This basically means he's planning to turn up, not throw any punches and lose valiantly on points as expected.

[The Insider]

Fury just weighed in at a career heaviest of 19st 8lb!!!!!

Hmmmmmm, na, he'll still win.........won't he????????

[Bard of Boxrec]

Fury just weighed in at a career heaviest of 19st 8lb!!!!!

Hmmmmmm, na, he'll still win.........won't he????????

Abell stoppage 16/1. Guy knocked down Pulev...

Think how much of a useless slob Fury looked when he was that heavy in the past. If Abell goes for it, he could easily catch that shaky chin with something. I'm gonna put a cheeky 20 on Abell 1-3 at 30/1.

Actually scratch that, Fury to get knocked down is enough for me at 6/1 and some speculative early round bets for Abell.

[reggaereggae]

Fury just weighed in at a career heaviest of 19st 8lb!!!!!

Hmmmmmm, na, he'll still win.........won't he????????

Abell stoppage 16/1. Guy knocked down Pulev...

Think how much of a useless slob Fury looked when he was that heavy in the past. If Abell goes for it, he could easily catch that shaky chin with something. I'm gonna put a cheeky 20 on Abell 1-3 at 30/1.

Actually scratch that, Fury to get knocked down is enough for me at 6/1 and some speculative early round bets for Abell.

Good points