Re: Pacquiao - Mosley Round-by Round
Posted: 08 May 2011, 01:31
No problem.
OK. Here's a summary of the arguments about what could have been going on tonight, and what it means for the future. I will try to frame them objectively, and hopefully it can provide a framework for our future discussions.
So, I think that the story will be why wasn't Pacquaio as dominant and as explosively destructive as he was against Hatton, Cotto, Clottey, Margarito and De La Hoya?
I guess there are three potential schools of thought here, and they would be: (1) It was simply a bad style match up for Manny, and it involved fighting a man who was interested in doing nothing other than survive; (2) Pacquaio had a bad training camp or was otherwise distracted; and (3) Pacquiao is just losing it slightly and can no longer maintain that buzz-saw pace.
Taking these in order, I think that it was definitely a bad style matchup. Pacquaio obviously likes guys who come on to him, and further, he needs guys to leave gaps. Pacquiao is fast, but not so blindingly fast and accurate that he can find his own gaps, and certainly he doesn't have the guile to set traps and walk opponents onto things. Also, Mosley has the kind of power (or the reputation of it, because we didn't really see it during the fight) that could make Pacquaio think twice before rushing in. I wonder whether Mosley landed one or two, or Pacquaio could feel the shots on his gloves, and realized that the old man had a bit more left in the power tank that he had thought. Either way, it was a bad matchup. Second, Mosley deserves a lot of credit/blame for the way the fight worked out. He was very defensive and showed just enough old man skills to keep Pacquaio at bay. Because he had literally no ambition, he didn't leave any gaps, really, and Pacquaio had to force matters. And we all know that Pacquaio looks far worse against cagey boxers than he does against men who are in front of him.
But really, when Pacquiao did force matters, he looked dominant. Why didn't he do it more often?
Well, Jim Watt suggested a bad training camp, or other distractions that meant that he couldn't keep up the pace. I'm not sure if I can accept this. Against Margarito, there was much talk about the bad training camp, and certainly in the HBO 24/7 documentary series, you could tell that Roach and Ariza were extremely frustrated with what went on. And yet in the fight. Pacquaio kept up a blinding pace. Here, there was nothing but good said about training in the build up. Roach has gone out of his way to say that it's been a great training camp.
This leaves us with two options. The first is that Pacquiao is genuinely losing a bit. He could be, actually. I thought that some of his sharpness was missing against Margarito, to be honest. He looked a milisecond slower and he took more punches than I thought he would have a year or so earlier. But I put this down to a bad camp. But this his is now the second fight in a row. I think we need to see one more fight to confirm, though, because it could have equally been the bad style matchup tonight that did it. You'd have to say though, bad training camp, bad style matchup, how many more excuses are there going to be for sub-par performances before we accept he's on the slide?
The counter argument to the "losing it" hypothesis would be this: The style match up was bad, Pacquaio was winning easily, had felt Mosley's power and didn't want to give the older fighter his only chance of victory. So, given he was sweeping the rounds, why push matters? And besides, didn't people criticise him for taking too many punches against Margarito? Here he can't have taken ten power shots.
But then, that still leaves us with the unanswered question of why he didn't notice that every time he lifted the pace he looked like Mosley couldn't cope.
Anyway, as for Mayweather, I think people are going to overreact and now say that Mayweather will easily win. I've always thought that Mayweather would be favourite, so I haven't really got any way of disagreeing with that, but what I can disagree with is the knee jerk swing of opinion. Look, if Mayweather follows Mosley's template, he's going to lose to Pacquiao. To beat someone, you have to actually throw punches, don't you? If Mosley had thrown punches, I have no doubt he would have been clean knocked out. If Pacquiao now shows patience and the willingness to win boring but sweep the scorecards, that could actually be more trouble for Mayweather than the old Pacquaio. And clearly, Pacquaio hasn't lost his power. Mosley has one of the best chins in the game (which we often forget), and he was badly shaken by a left that didn't catch him on the point of the chin, but on the side of the chin.
But, of course, that's assuming Pacquiao isn't on the slide, or is now unable to fully concentrate on training.
Thoughts?
OK. Here's a summary of the arguments about what could have been going on tonight, and what it means for the future. I will try to frame them objectively, and hopefully it can provide a framework for our future discussions.
So, I think that the story will be why wasn't Pacquaio as dominant and as explosively destructive as he was against Hatton, Cotto, Clottey, Margarito and De La Hoya?
I guess there are three potential schools of thought here, and they would be: (1) It was simply a bad style match up for Manny, and it involved fighting a man who was interested in doing nothing other than survive; (2) Pacquaio had a bad training camp or was otherwise distracted; and (3) Pacquiao is just losing it slightly and can no longer maintain that buzz-saw pace.
Taking these in order, I think that it was definitely a bad style matchup. Pacquaio obviously likes guys who come on to him, and further, he needs guys to leave gaps. Pacquiao is fast, but not so blindingly fast and accurate that he can find his own gaps, and certainly he doesn't have the guile to set traps and walk opponents onto things. Also, Mosley has the kind of power (or the reputation of it, because we didn't really see it during the fight) that could make Pacquaio think twice before rushing in. I wonder whether Mosley landed one or two, or Pacquaio could feel the shots on his gloves, and realized that the old man had a bit more left in the power tank that he had thought. Either way, it was a bad matchup. Second, Mosley deserves a lot of credit/blame for the way the fight worked out. He was very defensive and showed just enough old man skills to keep Pacquaio at bay. Because he had literally no ambition, he didn't leave any gaps, really, and Pacquaio had to force matters. And we all know that Pacquaio looks far worse against cagey boxers than he does against men who are in front of him.
But really, when Pacquiao did force matters, he looked dominant. Why didn't he do it more often?
Well, Jim Watt suggested a bad training camp, or other distractions that meant that he couldn't keep up the pace. I'm not sure if I can accept this. Against Margarito, there was much talk about the bad training camp, and certainly in the HBO 24/7 documentary series, you could tell that Roach and Ariza were extremely frustrated with what went on. And yet in the fight. Pacquaio kept up a blinding pace. Here, there was nothing but good said about training in the build up. Roach has gone out of his way to say that it's been a great training camp.
This leaves us with two options. The first is that Pacquiao is genuinely losing a bit. He could be, actually. I thought that some of his sharpness was missing against Margarito, to be honest. He looked a milisecond slower and he took more punches than I thought he would have a year or so earlier. But I put this down to a bad camp. But this his is now the second fight in a row. I think we need to see one more fight to confirm, though, because it could have equally been the bad style matchup tonight that did it. You'd have to say though, bad training camp, bad style matchup, how many more excuses are there going to be for sub-par performances before we accept he's on the slide?
The counter argument to the "losing it" hypothesis would be this: The style match up was bad, Pacquaio was winning easily, had felt Mosley's power and didn't want to give the older fighter his only chance of victory. So, given he was sweeping the rounds, why push matters? And besides, didn't people criticise him for taking too many punches against Margarito? Here he can't have taken ten power shots.
But then, that still leaves us with the unanswered question of why he didn't notice that every time he lifted the pace he looked like Mosley couldn't cope.
Anyway, as for Mayweather, I think people are going to overreact and now say that Mayweather will easily win. I've always thought that Mayweather would be favourite, so I haven't really got any way of disagreeing with that, but what I can disagree with is the knee jerk swing of opinion. Look, if Mayweather follows Mosley's template, he's going to lose to Pacquiao. To beat someone, you have to actually throw punches, don't you? If Mosley had thrown punches, I have no doubt he would have been clean knocked out. If Pacquiao now shows patience and the willingness to win boring but sweep the scorecards, that could actually be more trouble for Mayweather than the old Pacquaio. And clearly, Pacquaio hasn't lost his power. Mosley has one of the best chins in the game (which we often forget), and he was badly shaken by a left that didn't catch him on the point of the chin, but on the side of the chin.
But, of course, that's assuming Pacquiao isn't on the slide, or is now unable to fully concentrate on training.
Thoughts?