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Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 12:14
by freddydoesdallas
It is a better way to gamble, but i've stuck with maybe 2 or 3 teams and midstakes so that if any major upsets do happen i won't have to work my nuts off to recoup.

I would make Vitali around the 1/50 too. I mean Khan is normally around 1/10 for anyone he fights (he's 1/4 against an opponent who's just beat him) so to lump them in the same bracket is wrong

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 12:20
by SteveDow
freddydoesdallas wrote:It is a better way to gamble, but i've stuck with maybe 2 or 3 teams and midstakes so that if any major upsets do happen i won't have to work my nuts off to recoup.

I would make Vitali around the 1/50 too. I mean Khan is normally around 1/10 for anyone he fights (he's 1/4 against an opponent who's just beat him) so to lump them in the same bracket is wrong
I've also got a few sportsmen/horses/teams I will pile into now having never lost on them before (Frankel, Big Bucks, Floyd Mayweather, Barcelona and Vitali being a few of them). I'm also now trying to seek out value and have had some decent wins lately on the snooker in particular.

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 12:22
by markfightoptions
SteveDow wrote:
markfightoptions wrote:3grand to win 250, absolutely nuts in my opinion, but then again... william hill and victor chandler drive much nicer cars than me

stick that 3 grand on brian magee @ 7/2

:TU:
Depends on how you calculate value. Betting long odds on is not always a mugs option. I make Vitali about a 1/50 shot for this so 1/12 is good value.

Let's look at the plain facts, the only way Vitali can lose this fight is if he gets injured. Chisora is not a big puncher and Vitali has arguably the best chin in the history of heavyweight boxing having never been down in his career. Chisora will never get a points decision in Germany even if he wins every round which he won't as he is vastly inferior technically to Vitali.
Your 100% correct with this but in a risk/reward equation i still account for the fact that 1 correct punch from a 17 stone professional boxer onto the chin of another man will put him on his arse, klitz probably can evade him for 36 minutes or less but theres always that small chance that stops me risking anything on the short odds.

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 12:26
by SteveDow
markfightoptions wrote:
SteveDow wrote:
markfightoptions wrote:3grand to win 250, absolutely nuts in my opinion, but then again... william hill and victor chandler drive much nicer cars than me

stick that 3 grand on brian magee @ 7/2

:TU:
Depends on how you calculate value. Betting long odds on is not always a mugs option. I make Vitali about a 1/50 shot for this so 1/12 is good value.

Let's look at the plain facts, the only way Vitali can lose this fight is if he gets injured. Chisora is not a big puncher and Vitali has arguably the best chin in the history of heavyweight boxing having never been down in his career. Chisora will never get a points decision in Germany even if he wins every round which he won't as he is vastly inferior technically to Vitali.
Your 100% correct with this but in a risk/reward equation i still account for the fact that 1 correct punch from a 17 stone professional boxer onto the chin of another man will put him on his arse, klitz probably can evade him for 36 minutes or less but theres always that small chance that stops me risking anything on the short odds.
Fair enough mate, each to their own with gambling. If I lose the 3k it will hurt but it won't bankrupt me, it won't really affect me in terms of my day to day life over the next few days. You have to always gamble with the mindset of never betting what you can't afford to lose and that way you will always be ok. I'm not saying I'd have 3k on everything, far from it, but I just cannot envisage any realistic scenario in which Vitali won't win this fight. If he loses I'll be back here to admit I was wrong.

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 12:32
by markfightoptions
SteveDow wrote:
markfightoptions wrote:
SteveDow wrote: Depends on how you calculate value. Betting long odds on is not always a mugs option. I make Vitali about a 1/50 shot for this so 1/12 is good value.

Let's look at the plain facts, the only way Vitali can lose this fight is if he gets injured. Chisora is not a big puncher and Vitali has arguably the best chin in the history of heavyweight boxing having never been down in his career. Chisora will never get a points decision in Germany even if he wins every round which he won't as he is vastly inferior technically to Vitali.
Your 100% correct with this but in a risk/reward equation i still account for the fact that 1 correct punch from a 17 stone professional boxer onto the chin of another man will put him on his arse, klitz probably can evade him for 36 minutes or less but theres always that small chance that stops me risking anything on the short odds.
Fair enough mate, each to their own with gambling. If I lose the 3k it will hurt but it won't bankrupt me, it won't really affect me in terms of my day to day life over the next few days. You have to always gamble with the mindset of never betting what you can't afford to lose and that way you will always be ok. I'm not saying I'd have 3k on everything, far from it, but I just cannot envisage any realistic scenario in which Vitali won't win this fight. If he loses I'll be back here to admit I was wrong.
Fair play, im typically a very bad gambler so i now only use it as a form of entertainment, used to bet big but it looses its entertainment value and becomes more of a squeeky arse one once you punt above a certain level.

Hope you come through this one unscathed.

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 12:35
by SteveDow
markfightoptions wrote:
SteveDow wrote:
markfightoptions wrote: Your 100% correct with this but in a risk/reward equation i still account for the fact that 1 correct punch from a 17 stone professional boxer onto the chin of another man will put him on his arse, klitz probably can evade him for 36 minutes or less but theres always that small chance that stops me risking anything on the short odds.
Fair enough mate, each to their own with gambling. If I lose the 3k it will hurt but it won't bankrupt me, it won't really affect me in terms of my day to day life over the next few days. You have to always gamble with the mindset of never betting what you can't afford to lose and that way you will always be ok. I'm not saying I'd have 3k on everything, far from it, but I just cannot envisage any realistic scenario in which Vitali won't win this fight. If he loses I'll be back here to admit I was wrong.
Fair play, im typically a very bad gambler so i now only use it as a form of entertainment, used to bet big but it looses its entertainment value and becomes more of a squeeky arse one once you punt above a certain level.

Hope you come through this one unscathed.
Thanks mate. Are you getting involved in the fight? I was tempted to take the 1/3 on a Vitali stoppage but Del Boy has a decent chin and may just look to survive like he did against Fury once he realises he can't win.

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 12:43
by markfightoptions
SteveDow wrote:
markfightoptions wrote:
SteveDow wrote: Fair enough mate, each to their own with gambling. If I lose the 3k it will hurt but it won't bankrupt me, it won't really affect me in terms of my day to day life over the next few days. You have to always gamble with the mindset of never betting what you can't afford to lose and that way you will always be ok. I'm not saying I'd have 3k on everything, far from it, but I just cannot envisage any realistic scenario in which Vitali won't win this fight. If he loses I'll be back here to admit I was wrong.
Fair play, im typically a very bad gambler so i now only use it as a form of entertainment, used to bet big but it looses its entertainment value and becomes more of a squeeky arse one once you punt above a certain level.

Hope you come through this one unscathed.
Thanks mate. Are you getting involved in the fight? I was tempted to take the 1/3 on a Vitali stoppage but Del Boy has a decent chin and may just look to survive like he did against Fury once he realises he can't win.

Im generally staying away from it, dont really like the heavyweights for betting, as i said too much chance of a stray punch.

I stuck chisora in for a k/o along with brian magee and jason booth

chisora 11/1
magee 10/3
booth 9/1

£10 pays 5 grand, gives me a small amount of interest in the fight which promises to be a typical klitz borefest.

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 12:48
by Dirk Kelly
Think I've got Galihand, Eubank Jr and Vitali all to win by KO. Shite odds, £10, returns £62 or something.

Pay for a nice Sunday lunch if it happens.

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 12:51
by SteveDow
Dirk Kelly wrote:Think I've got Galihand, Eubank Jr and Vitali all to win by KO. Shite odds, £10, returns £62 or something.

Pay for a nice Sunday lunch if it happens.
Don't know much about Galihand but Eubank Jnr and Vitali should oblige there I'd have thought. 5/1 is ok value.

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 13:00
by markfightoptions
SteveDow wrote:
Dirk Kelly wrote:Think I've got Galihand, Eubank Jr and Vitali all to win by KO. Shite odds, £10, returns £62 or something.

Pay for a nice Sunday lunch if it happens.
Don't know much about Galihand but Eubank Jnr and Vitali should oblige there I'd have thought. 5/1 is ok value.


Still don't know how they can justify galahad to be odds on favourite at 1/5

Galahad has fought absolutely nobody, hes had 2 positive record opponents; hes beat a 40 year old paul griffin and a 3-2-0 dougie curran

booth has lost 3 of his last 4, but these were all against quality opponents, he was fighting for a bonafide world title less than 18 months ago, he didnt look impressive against quigg but im hoping he still has enough in the tank to take an inexperienced galahad to school.

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 13:54
by markfightoptions
I do hope people shop around for prices in this day and age.... klitz is 1/12 with ladbrokes and 1/22 with sportingbet.

big difference.

:geek2:

Re: betting this weekend

Posted: 18 Feb 2012, 21:35
by markfightoptions
Squeeky bum time with that 3 grand ;)

I walk away up about £240, not bad for a nights work.


Night folks