BoxRec

Ratchet Exits Nu wrote:Nathan is NOT World Class.

He is WBO World class, and that's not always the same as bieng World Class.

Pascal. Knocks him out and so would Dawson,Ward, Froch, Hopkins.

Hopkins isn't knocking out any top ten fighter. He couldn't even hurt Enrique Ornalas or ancient Roy Jones Jr.

crusader wrote:He's done nothing to make himself an overwheming favorite, but I think his strengths and style are anathema to Hopkins, and thus give him a realistic chance of winning.

You're also right that Hopkins is an exception to a trend, but he's looked increasingly slow, reluctant to throw, and troubled by his opponents' attacks; Pascal rocked him on numerous occasions and landed easily before gassing, while Dawson shut him down in a large majority of the rounds they fought. Pascal and Dawson are good fighters, but Hopkins also looked poor against Enrique Ornalas a few years back, and I think the process of decline has set in, or increased it's intensity.

Hopkins was a great fighter, and it's very probable that he's still good enough to beat Cleverly, but I think the inverse result is almost as probable.

Point taken, but in contrast cleverly stuttered againt mohameddi (who?) and squeeked past a very raw bellew. Really think nathan has the boxing to cause anyone problems, but doesnt have the power to discourage the top guys enough. Honestly see hopkins setting traps and catching clev. will hopkins do enough over 12 to convince judges in uk tho. he did in many peoples eyes against joe and nathan is nowhere near as good compared to how much nard has regressed. Look forward to seeing who's called it right though. This is from the guy who claimed brook looked a bit chinny after barrie jones fight and tipped hatton to overwhelm pacquiao.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/wales/20292461

I'd make Hopkins a big favourite if he fights Cleverly but the bookies probably won't which will be good news for me. I just don't see what Cleverly has done to suggest he could beat Hopkins. He'll be outsmarted and outfought on the inside. The only chance he has for me is to try to stay on the outside and use his speed to nick the fight on points but I could see him being countered an awful lot. Cleverly doesn't seem to have the ability to stick to a plan and enjoys getting into a tear up too much. That'll be his downfall against Hopkins who will frustrate him.

SteveDow wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/wales/20292461

I'd make Hopkins a big favourite if he fights Cleverly but the bookies probably won't which will be good news for me. I just don't see what Cleverly has done to suggest he could beat Hopkins. He'll be outsmarted and outfought on the inside. The only chance he has for me is to try to stay on the outside and use his speed to nick the fight on points but I could see him being countered an awful lot. Cleverly doesn't seem to have the ability to stick to a plan and enjoys getting into a tear up too much. That'll be his downfall against Hopkins who will frustrate him.

Hopkins doesn`t do tear ups though does he. He negates people`s strengths by smothering the fight. It is unlikely there would be any kind of tear up between Cleverely and Hopkins. I feel sorry for Cleverly. he clearly has talent, but he has been matched pretty poorly (apart from the Bellew and Murat fights).

The last two have been at joke level. I fail to see how Hawk can be classed as a bona fide world title challenger. There were barely 500 people watching the fight in that arena, yet is was a world title defence.

Hagler2002 wrote:

crusader wrote:I think that Cleverly would have a good chance of beating Hopkins; his fast hands, high volume, and good stamina could enable him to edge a decision.

He's nearly 48! The guy he beat tonight was probably a better test.

Silly comment. Even though he's 48, he'd be by far the hardest fight Cleverly has had.

SteveDow wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/wales/20292461

B-Hop looks remarkably like Chad Dawson in that picture!

forcefraser wrote:

SteveDow wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/wales/20292461

I'd make Hopkins a big favourite if he fights Cleverly but the bookies probably won't which will be good news for me. I just don't see what Cleverly has done to suggest he could beat Hopkins. He'll be outsmarted and outfought on the inside. The only chance he has for me is to try to stay on the outside and use his speed to nick the fight on points but I could see him being countered an awful lot. Cleverly doesn't seem to have the ability to stick to a plan and enjoys getting into a tear up too much. That'll be his downfall against Hopkins who will frustrate him.

Hopkins doesn`t do tear ups though does he. He negates people`s strengths by smothering the fight. It is unlikely there would be any kind of tear up between Cleverely and Hopkins. I feel sorry for Cleverly. he clearly has talent, but he has been matched pretty poorly (apart from the Bellew and Murat fights).

The last two have been at joke level. I fail to see how Hawk can be classed as a bona fide world title challenger. There were barely 500 people watching the fight in that arena, yet is was a world title defence.

That's exactly what I'm saying, Cleverly will try and have a tear up but will be frustrated time and again by Hopkins' ability to take him out of his gameplan

Personally I think Cleverly will get a close points decision purely based on workrate. In his fight with Dawson, neither guy really landed anything of note, but Dawson was busier so got the nod and i think that will be the same with Cleverly. His fast tippy tappy punches probably won't leave a mark on BHop, but will do enough to catch the judges eye.

The Light Heavy division has enough decent names for Cleverly to be able to steer well clear of B-Hop. Yes, he's old and past his best (B-Hop), but donw that way trouble lies. He's an awkward pudendum, will take the very thick end of the purse and is not pretty to watch. Beating him will generate more "well he was old and past it. Calzaghe did him in his prime." type comments, while a defeat will be held up as an example of why Clev is not world class. It's a classic no-win.

Go for Dawson, Cloud, Shumenov, Pascal - all big enough names to be the best opponent he's faced by a decent stretch and all to a greater or lesser extent, beatable.

I think that tendency is more likely to redound to Cleverly's benefit, as I've explained below in my take on the bout.

SteveDow wrote: Cleverly doesn't seem to have the ability to stick to a plan and enjoys getting into a tear up too much. That'll be his downfall against Hopkins who will frustrate him.

Hopkins is now a passive-reactive fighter. He's passive because he tends to sit back, throws only occasionally, and grabs or moves away instead of trading blows; he's reactive because he relies on countering his opponents as they advance or engage. I think that Cleverly has a good chance of winning, and these chances follow from the specific manner in which Hopkins uses the style described above, and the conditions in which it is most effective for him.

Hopkins scores points in two general ways: he rushes in with a single shot on an inactive opponent and then clinches, or he counters a shot thrown in isolation by an opponent and then clinches. In each case, his success depends on the opponent's output: a lower output produces more chances for Hopkins to initiate an attack and more chances for him to counter an unsustained attack; a higher output produces fewer chances for him to lead and ironically fewer chances for him to counter, as the opponent is more likely to throw combinations and thus induce his passivity. Consequently, a sustained and busy attack can reduce his success by forcing him into a shell and limiting his opportunities to counter in ways he prefers.

I’ve noted this in Hopkins' performances over the last several years. He was nearly shut down and couldn't keep up when Pascal had the energy to maintain a decent output and string punches together, but he excelled when the pace slowed and Pascal's output dropped. He was also shut down when Dawson was active and initiating, and enjoyed his limited success only when the latter slowed in spots. While Pascal and Dawson are top fighters, Enrique Ornalas and the aged Roy Jones Jr. enjoyed relative success by increasing their activity and putting together combinations. Thus, a trend appears in Hopkins’ performances against disparate opponents; he struggles with activity and combination punching.

I don't think that Cleverly is a special fighter, but his style and strengths are suited for success against Hopkins. A high output enables him to limit Hopkins' opportunities to initiate and counter; good stamine enables him to maintain that high output; and quick hands enables him to reduce the time available for Hopkins to counter effectively. I believe that Cleverly has a solid chance of winning based on these factors and the possibility that Hopkins has declined since he last fought. It's important to note that I've spent time focusing on how Cleverly could beat Hopkins, as I think there's consensus about how the latter could beat the former. Cleverly doesn’t punch hard, his defense isn’t great, and he’s inexperienced. Each of these factors can be exploited by the crafty Hopkins, and the bout could go either way.