BoxRec

Counter-puncher wrote:

dirk2686 wrote:
McGregor is 6/1 and has been backed in because money has been staked on him, but that still doesn't change the fact that he wasn't much bigger than that when the fight was announced and prices went up for the first time

okay, so the odds are that McGregor would win 1 fight out of 7 with Mayweather

and in your terms, that chance is basically, that Mayweather has a really bad freak Haye-type injury

Mayweather has had 49 fights, against actual boxersand in none of them has he had an injury so severe that he had to retire from the fight

remind me again how likely it is that McGregor might win? his only chance, is an eventuality that is at this point in time quantifiably worse than a one in 49 chance

if you think 6/1 is a good representation of the odds, you lump on it big mate and pray for the 6 rematches (or 49, depending on how you look at it) necessary for McGregor to eventually benefit from Mayweather's freak injury

That's not really how odds work - in that the bookmaker isn't actually posting honest odds. McGregor is probably more realistically somewhere in the region of 50/1 to win the fight.

But he's a long way off 5,000/1 to win the fight, which is the point you're arguing against. I don't think the odds on McGregor represent any value whatsoever, and I expect him to lose handily. But as far as sporting upsets go, this is simply nowhere near the biggest.

SaadOffTheDeck wrote:

dirk2686 wrote:

SaadOffTheDeck wrote:The fact that they had to beat several Mayweather's sells me(and I know nothing about soccer), but I don't think Conor would win 1 out of 5,000 fights with all things being the same.

Do you follow any other sports than boxing? Not a leading question - just wondering if you do in order to illustrate a point about just how unreal Leicester winning the league was.

Yes, NFL, College Football, Golf, Tennis, MMA, NBA, LOL. I'm a junkie. I know enough to understand the enormity. I'm with you, it's the Browns winning the Super Bowl next year. I'd still consider this the biggest upset in Boxing history, much more shocking than Douglas/Tyson.

Cool.

So to illustrate the point, Cleveland Browns are 500/1 to win the next Super Bowl. You stake $1, you win $500.

The closest example I can get in any form of American Football is in the CFP National Championship. The favourite to win that is Alabama Crimson Tide. Leicester winning the Premier League was the same price as Texas El Paso winning that. I assume, (and I know nothing about it), that it's pretty unlikely?!

If was going to Vegas and some casual friends asked me to bet $200 on McGregor at 50 to 1, I wouldn't bet it, let them enjoy the rush and then ask them after if they wanted to bet on the roulette wheel or have me bring their money back.

If you compare apples with apples and only compare single event one on ones it'd be the biggest upset I can think of.

dirk2686 wrote:

SaadOffTheDeck wrote:

dirk2686 wrote:
Do you follow any other sports than boxing? Not a leading question - just wondering if you do in order to illustrate a point about just how unreal Leicester winning the league was.

Yes, NFL, College Football, Golf, Tennis, MMA, NBA, LOL. I'm a junkie. I know enough to understand the enormity. I'm with you, it's the Browns winning the Super Bowl next year. I'd still consider this the biggest upset in Boxing history, much more shocking than Douglas/Tyson.

Cool.

So to illustrate the point, Cleveland Browns are 500/1 to win the next Super Bowl. You stake $1, you win $500.

The closest example I can get in any form of American Football is in the CFP National Championship. The favourite to win that is Alabama Crimson Tide. Leicester winning the Premier League was the same price as Texas El Paso winning that. I assume, (and I know nothing about it), that it's pretty unlikely?!

That's completely impossible. Shouldn't even be odds on it. LOL, if they won all their games they wouldn't even play for the championship.

Sklar wrote:If you compare apples with apples and only compare single event one on ones it'd be the biggest upset I can think of.

Japan beating South Africa in the Rugby World Cup 2015.

That's 15+ v 15+

Give me a bigger one on one

It is odd how people are getting so excited about blokes standing on a stage screaming f.uck. The tour they did was so tiresome with the same dross dished out four days in a row.

Sklar wrote:That's 15+ v 15+

Give me a bigger one on one

Andy Callaby knocking Phil Taylor out of the World Grand Prix.

A bloke who had never even qualified for the World Championship beats the sixteen-time World Champion and undoubted greatest player in history. One of those flukes where he would have to play better than he'd ever done in his life by miles coupled with his opponent having an absolute disaster - and it clicked.

The market gives Conor a 15% chance of winning so despite all the hype this wouldn't be that much of a shock were Conor to win.

It's not unusual or rare for the 6/1 underdog to win a sporting event. Happens several times every week in tennis for example.

Counter-puncher wrote:

dirk2686 wrote:

Deserter wrote: I'm interested to hear your rationale behind that belief...

Leicester City won the Premier League for god's sake.

McGregor is nowhere near LC level in boxing terms

Is he even Tranmere?

Terrible point of comparison

Leicester were 5,000-1 to win premiership. That's the biggest sports up ever in sport to my knowledge. By far.

MCGregor is (admittedly way overpriced at around 6-1.

Regardless of the validity of the fight, Leicester were far,far,far less likely to win prem. they had to last a whole season not just one match.

Plenty more opportunities for Floyd to lose: a fluke cut, a fluke knockout, a freak injury, a disqualification.

Leicester is the biggest sporting upset of all time and will remain so for a long time.

dirk2686 wrote:

Sklar wrote:That's 15+ v 15+

Give me a bigger one on one

Andy Callaby knocking Phil Taylor out of the World Grand Prix.

A bloke who had never even qualified for the World Championship beats the sixteen-time World Champion and undoubted greatest player in history. One of those flukes where he would have to play better than he'd ever done in his life by miles coupled with his opponent having an absolute disaster - and it clicked.

I disagree. the 'bloke' still had pedigree in the sense of playing the same game. Connor has none.

CaptainSpacerod wrote:The market gives Conor a 15% chance of winning so despite all the hype this wouldn't be that much of a shock were Conor to win.

It's not unusual or rare for the 6/1 underdog to win a sporting event. Happens several times every week in tennis for example.

As mentioned above, odds of 6/1 is in no way reflective of saying someone has a c. 15% chance of winning.

dalcumly wrote:In this weeks Boxing News editorial Matt Christie expresses his feelings on the Mayweather/McGregor 'world tour' and the forthcoming 'fight'.
In my opinion it sums up exactly how I feel about this absolute joke of a boxing contest. Perhaps my age, and being a traditionalist has a lot to do with it, but how can any boxing fan treat this seriously. A few people, I accept, are going to make an awful lot of money, but I'm stunned and extremely disappointed that ANY boxing sanctioning organisation should authorise this event. Furthermore , how can a recognised referee and judges agree to take part. All it does as far as these officials are concerned, is prove that their love of money is greater than their respect for the sport.
If Matt Christie believes that by covering the fight will sell more magazines then he's obliged to report on it and the build up but if not he should leave well alone.
This is equivalent of letting McGregor play centre half for Real Madrid in the Champions league final. Mayweather will box him senseless for a few rounds and then he'll let rip until the referee steps in with MCGregor's face looking like a 'pound of mince'.
The whole event sums up the lack of integrity among those in Las Vegas who control boxing. Money is king.

I agree with you. I can understand why its happening (money). I understand its official and why (money). Whist Im not buying this I have a few question -
Where is it taking place ?.
What channel has the ppv ?.
How much ?. I've see £90 quoted on websites ?.
IMO this takes it to a new level of stupidity.
Can anyone advise ?.

afcpaul wrote:

dalcumly wrote:In this weeks Boxing News editorial Matt Christie expresses his feelings on the Mayweather/McGregor 'world tour' and the forthcoming 'fight'.
In my opinion it sums up exactly how I feel about this absolute joke of a boxing contest. Perhaps my age, and being a traditionalist has a lot to do with it, but how can any boxing fan treat this seriously. A few people, I accept, are going to make an awful lot of money, but I'm stunned and extremely disappointed that ANY boxing sanctioning organisation should authorise this event. Furthermore , how can a recognised referee and judges agree to take part. All it does as far as these officials are concerned, is prove that their love of money is greater than their respect for the sport.
If Matt Christie believes that by covering the fight will sell more magazines then he's obliged to report on it and the build up but if not he should leave well alone.
This is equivalent of letting McGregor play centre half for Real Madrid in the Champions league final. Mayweather will box him senseless for a few rounds and then he'll let rip until the referee steps in with MCGregor's face looking like a 'pound of mince'.
The whole event sums up the lack of integrity among those in Las Vegas who control boxing. Money is king.

I agree with you. I can understand why its happening (money). I understand its official and why (money). Whist Im not buying this I have a few question -
Where is it taking place ?.
What channel has the ppv ?.
How much ?. I've see £90 quoted on websites ?.
IMO this takes it to a new level of stupidity.
Can anyone advise ?.

Probably somewhere in Vegas.
In the UK not yet decided but probably Sky Box Office.
Almost certainly the same price bracket as Joshua Klitschko and Mayweather Pacquaio. The prices quoted mentioning £90/£120 seem to be people on Facebook who haven't worked out that they've been discussing American price models.

Again, there are bigger surprises which could happen every week in boxing than McGregor winning this fight. There has been a farcical amount of overstating this as a mismatch, (and believe me, I think it's a mismatch), which seems to have been missed. Honestly, if some of the people on here think a McGregor win is a bigger upset than Leicester winning the league they should genuinely and without hesitation be remortgaging homes, withdrawing full bank balances and borrowing as much as possible to get everything they can on a Mayweather win.

To put it into context, you can get 1/6 on Mayweather winning, yet those who believe him not winning would be a bigger shock than Leicester winning the league are suggesting his realistic odds that the bookies should be offering would be somewhere in the region of 1/15,000, those being the odds that would be needed to produce an overround in a three-horse race where one selection is 5,000/1.

Out of interest, anyone know the odds for Mayweather's last few opponents? Say Berto, Maidana, Cotto & Canelo?

Boxerbeetle wrote:Out of interest, anyone know the odds for Mayweather's last few opponents? Say Berto, Maidana, Cotto & Canelo?

These are American odds, which I believe work in the sense of anything starting with a minus is how much you need to stake to win a hundred dollars, and anything with a plus is how much you win if you stake a hundred dollars.

Conor McGregor -500
Andre Berto -3000
Manny Pacquiao -200
Marcos Maidana -600
Marcos Maidana -900
Canelo Alvarez -300
Robert Guerrero -600
Miguel Cotto -700
Victor Ortiz -500
Shane Mosley -400
Juan Manuel Marquez -360
Ricky Hatton -240
Oscar De La Hoya -190
Carlos Baldomir -700
Zab Judah -500
Shambra Mitchell -950
Arturo Gatti -400
Henry Bruseles -2000

When you have a 'one against one' sporting event you do not get huge odds. The most I've seen is something like a non league side visiting a Premiership club in the FA cup. Usually the odds on the expected result being 1-20. It's not higher because of a variety of reasons.
Do I think that McGregor has a better chance of beating Mayweather than Tranmere Rovers going to Chelsea and wining. About the same I would say.
The point is , would our own BBB if C sanction a rugby league player challenging Joshua in his first professional contest? I'm pretty certain, no matter the money involved, they wouldn't on the grounds of safety ( for the rugby league player !).
McGregor simply cannot prepare for Mayweather. There is no sparring he can undertake to replicate the speed and timing of Mayweather and McGregors own toughness will count against him making him slow, predictable and a 'sitting duck' . I'm not joking when I say he will not land a single clean punch on Mayweather no matter how long the fight lasts. This is why the contest is an event and not a true boxing match. To my mind it's equivalent to 'celebrity boxing' except the ' celebrity' is fighting a world class boxer who will not be pulling his punches, wearing 16 ozs gloves and wearing head guards.
Anyone who thinks McGregor can make a fight of it has no idea what they're talking about.

dalcumly wrote:When you have a 'one against one' sporting event you do not get huge odds. The most I've seen is something like a non league side visiting a Premiership club in the FA cup. Usually the odds on the expected result being 1-20. It's not higher because of a variety of reasons.
Do I think that McGregor has a better chance of beating Mayweather than Tranmere Rovers going to Chelsea and wining. About the same I would say.
The point is , would our own BBB if C sanction a rugby league player challenging Joshua in his first professional contest? I'm pretty certain, no matter the money involved, they wouldn't on the grounds of safety ( for the rugby league player !).
McGregor simply cannot prepare for Mayweather. There is no sparring he can undertake to replicate the speed and timing of Mayweather and McGregors own toughness will count against him making him slow, predictable and a 'sitting duck' . I'm not joking when I say he will not land a single clean punch on Mayweather no matter how long the fight lasts. This is why the contest is an event and not a true boxing match. To my mind it's equivalent to 'celebrity boxing' except the ' celebrity' is fighting a world class boxer who will not be pulling his punches, wearing 16 ozs gloves and wearing head guards.
Anyone who thinks McGregor can make a fight of it has no idea what they're talking about.

I don't think McGregor will make a fight of it, but he's not a celebrity. This isn't Andrew Flintoff having a go at boxing. It's more akin to a tennis player playing badminton or a 200m runner having a crack at the 400m. They're different disciplines but they are related.

The fact that McGregor is the best at what he does and it's related to boxing is reason as to why it can be allowed to happen. Personally, I think there was a lot more danger putting someone like Michael Sprott in front of Anthony Joshua and allowing him to unload than putting McGregor in with Floyd. I think it'll be embarrassing and one-sided but I'm not sure I see it as inherently more dangerous than quite a few fights to be fair.

Covfefe wrote:Is anyone actually taking this seriously? All I've seen is people slagging the match off.

I am not I see it as a novelty fight. Canelo v Golovkin is what I am interested in plus the Super Middleweights in the WBSS.

IRLangmaid25 wrote:

Covfefe wrote:Is anyone actually taking this seriously? All I've seen is people slagging the match off.

I am not I see it as a novelty fight. Canelo v Golovkin is what I am interested in plus the Super Middleweights in the WBSS.

As any boxing fan should be.

Canelo and Golovkin should be dwarfing this circus.

Covfefe wrote:

IRLangmaid25 wrote:

Covfefe wrote:Is anyone actually taking this seriously? All I've seen is people slagging the match off.

I am not I see it as a novelty fight. Canelo v Golovkin is what I am interested in plus the Super Middleweights in the WBSS.

As any boxing fan should be.

Canelo and Golovkin should be dwarfing this circus.

I agree especially with Canelo having such a large Mexican following, and becoming more mainstream as he gets more confident in English. Plus also Golovkin is very marketable too. As for the WBSS, feels like we are going back to the 90s a tad I feel.

It is a divvy fight

It's mainly for the 2 of them to get themselves a nice payday

Mayweather will box mcgregors ears off

But it's happening, I see no sense in keeping on slagging it off, however silly it is

Il stil watch it just for the sake of it tbh, as will many others

IRLangmaid25 wrote:

Covfefe wrote:

IRLangmaid25 wrote:
I am not I see it as a novelty fight. Canelo v Golovkin is what I am interested in plus the Super Middleweights in the WBSS.

As any boxing fan should be.

Canelo and Golovkin should be dwarfing this circus.

I agree especially with Canelo having such a large Mexican following, and becoming more mainstream as he gets more confident in English. Plus also Golovkin is very marketable too. As for the WBSS, feels like we are going back to the 90s a tad I feel.

What's not to like about the WBSS ?!

skanksta wrote:

IRLangmaid25 wrote:

Covfefe wrote:
As any boxing fan should be.

Canelo and Golovkin should be dwarfing this circus.

I agree especially with Canelo having such a large Mexican following, and becoming more mainstream as he gets more confident in English. Plus also Golovkin is very marketable too. As for the WBSS, feels like we are going back to the 90s a tad I feel.

What's not to like about the WBSS ?!

I'm sure he means in a good way, like the Eubanks, Benn and Collins days.