BoxRec

diddy wrote: ↑22 Feb 2018, 23:07 Guys over on boxing 24-7 think Nieky should only be an 8-1 dog.

The size disparity here is ridiculous.

But Boxing 24/7 doesn't set odds for business purposes. They're just giving an opinion.

A survey of betting sites shows odds ranging from as short as 20-1 to as one sided as 100-1.

The 50-1 price is the most common line on the fight.

Other odds have Smith a heavy -700 pick to win by KO. If you like him by decision it's +500.

And if you like longshots, Holzken is +1800 to win by KO and +3300 to take a decision.

At +500 odds for Nieky Holzken to simply SURVIVE the distance, and not get knocked out that might be a worthwhile bet. He's only been stopped twice in 105 bouts as a Kickboxer so he's obviously tough, and he's fought the toughest of the tough in Kickboxing.

i think it will get to a point where he's simply taken too much , even if he stands up to it

I'm hugely surprised by the odds, I think I'm going to make a bet, I love it when people underestimate a Dutch guy.
I'd have to say with this that he's not that good, he wasn't even that good as a kickboxer as far as I remember, but I've never heard of his opponent either, I'll check both out when I'm back from work. I know that he has been world champion in kickboxing and even defended his title a few times, but the heavyweights where dominating this class much more, and still.

gilgamesh wrote: ↑22 Feb 2018, 17:31

jamamb wrote: ↑22 Feb 2018, 17:22 holzken would beat callum no problem in kickboxing but cant see him having much of a chance in boxing!

Actually I always wonder if it would indeed be "No Problem" for a Kickboxer to beat a Boxer in a Kickboxing match. I mean they'd definitely have the advantage obviously, but I wonder how Elite Boxers would fare in Kickboxing contests. For the most part you never find out because they make so much more money in Boxing that there'd be no reason for the crossover the majority of the time.

Boxer has no chance in that one. Those leg kicks would make it very short fight. If you don't know how to block or take them properly its pretty much impossible to win.

Here is old match recap from fight where there is old style kickboxer (no low kicks allowed) fighting against muay thai boxer in a competition where low kicks are allowed.



The part about low kicks starts from 3 minutes.

Watch this and find the answer to you question

Hmmm, by a 2nd look, I've just watched a boxing match of Nieky, but this is a step too high, much too high, I expect this fight to be over around the 6th round, with Nieky losing by tko.

gilgamesh wrote: ↑23 Feb 2018, 00:34 At +500 odds for Nieky Holzken to simply SURVIVE the distance, and not get knocked out that might be a worthwhile bet. He's only been stopped twice in 105 bouts as a Kickboxer so he's obviously tough, and he's fought the toughest of the tough in Kickboxing.

I think that part of the problem would be that he's only gone 10 rounds twice in his brief career, both times against soft opposition.

Now he's being asked to go 12 rounds in a huge step up fight against a world class fighter.

Oddsmakers probably doubt he has the experience and stamina to survive the distance, even in a losing battle.

SenorPipino wrote: ↑23 Feb 2018, 13:19

gilgamesh wrote: ↑23 Feb 2018, 00:34 At +500 odds for Nieky Holzken to simply SURVIVE the distance, and not get knocked out that might be a worthwhile bet. He's only been stopped twice in 105 bouts as a Kickboxer so he's obviously tough, and he's fought the toughest of the tough in Kickboxing.

I think that part of the problem would be that he's only gone 10 rounds twice in his brief career, both times against soft opposition.

Now he's being asked to go 12 rounds in a huge step up fight against a world class fighter.

Oddsmakers probably doubt he has the experience and stamina to survive the distance, even in a losing battle.

And I'm sure they're right.

But still I don't think it's completely out of the question that a guy that has only been stopped twice in 105 Kickboxing bouts is tough enough to survive the distance. Callum Smith show he's shown great promise isn't the biggest puncher ever necessarily, though he does hit pretty damn hard, and with all the other advantages in his favor yeah it's pretty hard to imagine Holzken being able to stand up for 12 (or being allowed to by the ref even if he could).

If you're going for one of the crazy odds bets though I think Holzken surviving the distance is certainly more of a possibility than Holzken winning the fight...but yeah I'd imagine he stops Holzken. There's a reason why the odds are what they are for Holzken to even last the distance.

For what it's worth, the combined record of Holzken's 13 opponents is 162-128-16.

I've seen many fighters with a record of much weaker early opposition, but it still shows that Holzken hasn't had a real gut check test.

And all but one of his bouts have been held in the friendly confines of the Netherlands where he's a big favorite because of his kickboxing background.

We will see if he travels well.

I looked at this match:

Against a currently 10 win 8 lose guy.

And that was the one that told me, Nieky doesn't have much of a chance, I don't even think he will hit the canvas, but the fight will be stopped by the ref, a bit like that American 50-0 guy vs that never fights against guys he knows he will lose against, against that Irish MMA guy from a few months back, I can't remember their names.

asdfjkl wrote: ↑23 Feb 2018, 14:22 a bit like that American 50-0 guy vs that never fights against guys he knows he will lose against, against that Irish MMA guy from a few months back, I can't remember their names.

pure trolling

I doubt this guy can box going backwards. You'd think that with Smith's range he can win on the back foot or by applying pressure. Callum has laboured to victories against lesser opponents before whereas he tends to start fast when he's properly switched on (stopped Fielding and Mohoumadi in the 1st). Either way he should be stopping this guy comfortably inside the distance.

Counter-puncher wrote: ↑23 Feb 2018, 14:29

asdfjkl wrote: ↑23 Feb 2018, 14:22 a bit like that American 50-0 guy vs that never fights against guys he knows he will lose against, against that Irish MMA guy from a few months back, I can't remember their names.

pure trolling

I'm not even sure if he is trolling anymore! Guys one knock on the head away from becoming an actual potato

Stuarty wrote: ↑23 Feb 2018, 14:46

Counter-puncher wrote: ↑23 Feb 2018, 14:29

asdfjkl wrote: ↑23 Feb 2018, 14:22 a bit like that American 50-0 guy vs that never fights against guys he knows he will lose against, against that Irish MMA guy from a few months back, I can't remember their names.

pure trolling

I'm not even sure if he is trolling anymore! Guys one knock on the head away from becoming an actual potato

No, that's bum Stiverne, I remember his name.
*Or Charles Martin, he's not that far off either

It's one way traffic of pillow hits vs missing hard fists

And it's live on Dutch television RTL7

Well it's Round 8 and Nieky's still there.

gilgamesh wrote: ↑24 Feb 2018, 18:49 Well it's Round 8 and Nieky's still there.

Did you make that +500 bet on Smith by decision.?

It's even money right now that it goes 12.

SenorPipino wrote: ↑24 Feb 2018, 18:55

gilgamesh wrote: ↑24 Feb 2018, 18:49 Well it's Round 8 and Nieky's still there.

Did you make that +500 bet on Smith by decision.?

It's even money right now that it goes 12.

Nah I didn't. That would've been the bet to make though definitely.

For me, 117-111, Smith.................

I had it 118-110 and I was generous to the game but very inexperienced Holzken.

SenorPipino wrote: ↑24 Feb 2018, 19:09 I had it 118-110 and I was generous to the game but very inexperienced Holzken.

Holzken's plenty experienced. Just not as a Boxer. Going the distance here he held his own really well.

He did pretty good. Tough as nails. Did not win but did pretty good at this level.

Callum Smith had his hands full with this guy all night. And Nieky lasted all 12 and got hit good.

SenorPipino wrote: ↑24 Feb 2018, 19:09 I had it 118-110 and I was generous to the game but very inexperienced Holzken.

He won three rounds, IMHO............

Callum will need to take more risks against Groves.

A steady diet of jabs won't be enough to get the job done against a guy a few levels above a late sub.

Holzken did better than could be expected, at least in terms of effort. He came to fight, not just pick up a paycheck.

But he was seriously overmatched and had no answer for the Smith jab.

SenorPipino wrote: ↑24 Feb 2018, 19:13 Callum will need to take more risks against Groves.

A steady diet of jabs won't be enough to get the job done against a guy a few levels above a late sub.

Holzken did better than could be expected, at least in terms of effort. He came to fight, not just pick up a paycheck.

But he was seriously overmatched and had no answer for the Smith jab.

I expect Groves' victory................