i think the top hws are just too big and too strong, though i do think usyk could still be a strong contender and beat some good names like joe parker or povetkin or pulev. tbf, he widely beat some top amateur shws too, including that 3x world champ from azerjban who won a close won over aj...that guy is a great puncher in the ams
one thing i will say, is that i think hws are more likely to fight usyk in a way that forces usyk into the style where hes most effective. imo usyk is least effective when he has to lead, and most effective when someone is pressing him and hes on the move and boxing
Re: Usyk vs Joshua
Posted: 12 Nov 2018, 02:12
by jamamb
another thing....i dont think usyk is even all that tiny for a hw (although the giants are obviously much bigger)
hes like 6'3, 78 inch reach, and is ripped and muscular drained to 200 (whereas a guy like bellew is a bit soft and thin framed)....he probably steps in the ring more around 210-215
now, if he were to flab up and add 25 pounds of fat, you basically have joe parker with a longer reach. so many hws today are artificially heavy through fat.
even luis ortiz, whose showtime stats were given as 6'3 with a 78 inch reach (same as usyk), is probably more like 220 in shape then the 240+ weight he is with that flab. a guy like stiverne, who won a belt, is shorter then usyk and i doubt any heavier, if heavier at all, without those layers of lard.
now, these giants like aj, wilder, and fury are one thing, but so many hws out there these days are really hardly much naturally bigger then usyk imo.
Re: Usyk vs Joshua
Posted: 12 Nov 2018, 02:23
by jamamb
recent hw champs/contenders who i think were hardly much naturally bigger then usyk (the artifical flab weight game is strong):
-joe parker
-kubrat pulev
-luis ortiz (showtime gave him at the same height and reach as usyk and easily has 20+ pounds of flab)
-alex povetkin
-david haye
-ruslan chagaev
-bermane stiverne
-carlos takam
-derek chisora
-bryant jennings
-andy ruiz jr
-mike perez
-adam kownacki
-artur szpilka
-thomas admaek
-eddie chambers (lost at cruiser to usyk victim thabiso mchunu)
-chris arreola
-etc
and what would a guy like dyl whyte, with very similar height and reach to usyk, weigh if he were as ripped as usyk? maybe more in the low 220s then high 240s im thinking. i dont think a guy like whyte is naturally far bigger then usyk.
tbf, none of these guys were absolute top hws, but a few won titles and some like povetkin and ortiz were probably among the top 3-5 for a while. i can see the same for usyk, not bettering the elite giants, but being among the next best.
Re: Usyk vs Joshua
Posted: 12 Nov 2018, 04:17
by jamamb
ya, he also won 5-0 vs that magomedrasal fellow whose won 3 world shw championships, including last year and vs aj in 2011
obvs that is not pro, but i think he can do well at hw. not beat the elite giants imo but be among the next best, maybe pick up a regular title or a full title if someone vacates.
plus like i said, accounting for flab i dont think usyks really naturally way smaller then most hw contenders. i think the big hws will also make him fight in a way that suits him more then taking the lead like he did vs bellew
Re: Usyk vs Joshua
Posted: 12 Nov 2018, 04:20
by TheLeprechaun
joelouis1234 wrote: ↑12 Nov 2018, 04:07
See Usyk beating Olympic Silver Medalist Joe Joyce at heavyweight in the WSB - he looked impressive, fast, with reasonable power at the weight.
That's the thing about Usyk. He can do it on the front foot, back foot, inside, mid range etc. He seems to be very effective fighting in any style and can obviously adapt on the fly if need be. I think when you have that kind of versatility you can come up with a diverse range of tactics against the big guys. His stamina and punch output are going to be top drawer up at heavyweight and while he may not have the pure power that heavies have, his accuracy would make him very effective. If a fight was made between him and Joyce next and Usyk was a backable Price, I would be running to the bookies at a fast pace to lump on and I don't think I would be the only one.
Re: Usyk vs Joshua
Posted: 12 Nov 2018, 04:42
by Ricky
jamamb wrote: ↑12 Nov 2018, 02:02
i think the top hws are just too big and too strong
Usyk isn't that much smaller than Wlad who is as big as you get without being a grotesque deformity like Valuev.
Usyk is also a very broad guy with real estate to bulk up some if he wants.
The size discrepancy of Joshua/Usyk isn't enough to counter the fact Usyk is a vastly superior technician.
I give AJ a punchers chance.
Re: Usyk vs Joshua
Posted: 12 Nov 2018, 09:11
by skanksta
jamamb wrote: ↑12 Nov 2018, 02:23
recent hw champs/contenders who i think were hardly much naturally bigger then usyk (the artifical flab weight game is strong):
-joe parker
-kubrat pulev
-luis ortiz (showtime gave him at the same height and reach as usyk and easily has 20+ pounds of flab)
-alex povetkin
-david haye
-ruslan chagaev
-bermane stiverne
-carlos takam
-derek chisora
-bryant jennings
-andy ruiz jr
-mike perez
-adam kownacki
-artur szpilka
-thomas admaek
-eddie chambers (lost at cruiser to usyk victim thabiso mchunu)
-chris arreola
-etc
and what would a guy like dyl whyte, with very similar height and reach to usyk, weigh if he were as ripped as usyk? maybe more in the low 220s then high 240s im thinking. i dont think a guy like whyte is naturally far bigger then usyk.
tbf, none of these guys were absolute top hws, but a few won titles and some like povetkin and ortiz were probably among the top 3-5 for a while. i can see the same for usyk, not bettering the elite giants, but being among the next best.
Your general thesis is spot on - as usual - but I think you've been a bit harsh with some of those names there.
Delboy for eg. - Not saying he couldn't trim plenty, but while he's only 6'1 he's a barrell-chested unit with huge hands, head etc. - genuine short heavyweight for me.
Parker too - big-boned solid Maori, not a skinny 6'4"
Adamek - he's a big LHW bulking up for the money and never pretended different. He deserves props for the bravery rather than being called fat !
Re: Usyk vs Joshua
Posted: 12 Nov 2018, 09:23
by jamamb
thing is , even when those guys are considered in shape, they clearly are packing a lot more fat then usyk is cutting to make 200. at around 200 at weigh ins, usyk is ripped with 6 pack and all sorts of definition, and reality is hes probably artifically taken down to 200 at weigh ins by losing water weight
now, lets say usyk doesnt drain any water weight , and he adds the same amount of 'layer' as they have, i think your looking at not much of a weight difference, and at 6'3/78 usyk is around the same length or longer. its not as though guys like parker and chis are just a mere 5-10 pounds away from being ripped
Re: Usyk vs Joshua
Posted: 12 Nov 2018, 09:28
by leejonesjnr
Haye and Holyfield were never fat at heavy and neither are taller than Usyk. They both fought in the modern era of giant heavies and had success so It is certainly plausible that Usyk can do the job.
Re: Usyk vs Joshua
Posted: 12 Nov 2018, 09:30
by danconnollyeire
I think it could be similar (if not less sloppy) than Fury/Cunningham. Cunningham was outboxing Fury and frustrating his with movement so Fury just pushed and lent on him, wearing him down. AJ could eventually do the same
