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Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 09:53
by nickd
Terence wrote:Joe punches with poor technique so that accounts for the hand problems but he also throws volumes of shots. Is it true he hasn't scored a KO (count-out) since 1997? That is the last one I recall. I'm not up on the odds thing but Lacy has the momentum going into this one. I know it is not an exact science but that shock absorber neck Jeff has gives him a bit more in the chin department. I don't think Sheika really had him going, Jeff just got hit a lot because he went power crazy. I see Calzaghe getting KO'd in this one, if he wants to win I don't think it will be by boxing but the way he did for Mitchell; put Lacy down then pour on lots of shots in the hope the ref steps in. Joe seems to get hand problems to order at times.
Possibly, could the ref be pre-primed to jump in as soon as Calzaghe starts his pat-a-cakes?
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 09:56
by nickd
Anyone betting on Calzaghe is nothing short of mad. While he might win there are so many intangibles that dont work in his favour. i.e. poor competition recently, injury prone, 33 years old and slowing.... by all means pick Calzaghe to win but anyone putting any serious money on it should think again. Lacy has a huge neck and is built like a brick shithouse, I'd say the chances of Calzaghe hurting one of his hands with some of his 'unorthodox' shots is pretty high. It's a 50-50 fight with two hands, imagine if one of his hands goes? He'll get slaughtered. So money on Calzaghe is not wise if you ask me.
That's if he can get through the next 3 and a half weeks unscathed.
If he loses I guarantee the first thing he will say is "my hand went in the X round". You can take that to the bank!
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:11
by Phenomenal-Nutrition
This isn't a KO competition, its a bxoing contest, beat your opponent to the punch and don't get hit. When was the last time Winky Wright ko'd someone? His arm punching still beat Trinidad/Mosley who can both take heads off. Calazage doesn't have a Wright like defense but he does have superb hand speed, high workrate, decent power and decent movement.
I'm really looking forward to this fight now after analysing it I see it as been a real backburner
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:30
by Max Molyneux
Phenomenal-Nutrition wrote:MightyWarrior wrote:Haven't seen it, but I read that Sheika stunned Lacy a few times?
Plus the fact that both Lacy and Shaw are probably not expecting JC to hit that hard, as I've heard Shaw talk about how Joe slaps rather than punches. Calzaghe is a very fast starter, and Lacy might be in for an early shock if he doesn't think Joe can punch any.
Watched it, yes Lacy was stunned, once really shook up, I don't think it means that much - Lacy certainly has a chin imo. Does Joe hit as hard as Sheika?
He hits harder than Sheika!
Anyone betting on Calzaghe is nothing short of mad.
He is more proven than Lacy and is rightly the favourite to win.
While he might win there are so many intangibles that dont work in his favour. i.e. poor competition recently, injury prone, 33 years old and slowing.... by all means pick Calzaghe to win but anyone putting any serious money on it should think again. Lacy has a huge neck and is built like a brick shithouse, I'd say the chances of Calzaghe hurting one of his hands with some of his 'unorthodox' shots is pretty high. It's a 50-50 fight with two hands, imagine if one of his hands goes? He'll get slaughtered. So money on Calzaghe is not wise if you ask me.
Better comp than Lacy and he beat Sheika 100 times easier.
He maybe slowing down but he still has enough for Lacy and 33 is only a number. I think Joe mosly has to watch out for Lacy's right as skill wise Joe has the advantage and the same with speed wise.
Lacy may have the advantage with trading but not sure since he hasn't traded with someone like Joe.
Power wise there even in the punch or Joe a little bit more since he's proved it more than Lacy.
If Lacy can be shook by Sheika who doesmn't hit as hard as Joe than Joe can certainly shake Lacy.
Being built like a bickwall is fine but if your one dimensional and have average mobility then your in for a tough time.
ossibly, could the ref be pre-primed to jump in as soon as Calzaghe starts his pat-a-cakes?
Only if it was in America where Lacy has his biased refs.
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:33
by nickd
Max Molyneux wrote:Phenomenal-Nutrition wrote:MightyWarrior wrote:Haven't seen it, but I read that Sheika stunned Lacy a few times?
Plus the fact that both Lacy and Shaw are probably not expecting JC to hit that hard, as I've heard Shaw talk about how Joe slaps rather than punches. Calzaghe is a very fast starter, and Lacy might be in for an early shock if he doesn't think Joe can punch any.
Watched it, yes Lacy was stunned, once really shook up, I don't think it means that much - Lacy certainly has a chin imo. Does Joe hit as hard as Sheika?
He hits harder than Sheika!
Anyone betting on Calzaghe is nothing short of mad.
He is more proven than Lacy and is rightly the favourite to win.
While he might win there are so many intangibles that dont work in his favour. i.e. poor competition recently, injury prone, 33 years old and slowing.... by all means pick Calzaghe to win but anyone putting any serious money on it should think again. Lacy has a huge neck and is built like a brick shithouse, I'd say the chances of Calzaghe hurting one of his hands with some of his 'unorthodox' shots is pretty high. It's a 50-50 fight with two hands, imagine if one of his hands goes? He'll get slaughtered. So money on Calzaghe is not wise if you ask me.
Better comp than Lacy and he beat Sheika 100 times easier.
He maybe slowing down but he still has enough for Lacy and 33 is only a number. I think Joe mosly has to watch out for Lacy's right as skill wise Joe has the advantage and the same with speed wise.
Lacy may have the advantage with trading but not sure since he hasn't traded with someone like Joe.
Power wise there even in the punch or Joe a little bit more since he's proved it more than Lacy.
If Lacy can be shook by Sheika who doesmn't hit as hard as Joe than Joe can certainly shake Lacy.
Being built like a bickwall is fine but if your one dimensional and have average mobility then your in for a tough time.
ossibly, could the ref be pre-primed to jump in as soon as Calzaghe starts his pat-a-cakes?
Only if it was in America where Lacy has his biased refs.
My point is anybody would be mad to bet on Calzaghe in a close matchup with his propensity for injury and his advancing age.
If you're going to be pedantic - as for Lacy being shaken by Sheika, lets not forget Calzaghe was dropped by the feather fists of Kabary Salem.
Lacy is more than one dimensional, take your blinkers off.
Re: Calzaghe v Lacy Betting and more......
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:38
by pundit
ALI wrote:Interesting to note that when the betting first opened for the Calzaghe v Lacy fight that Joe was a slight favourite with almost all of the leading bookmakers. I have been keeping a close watch on the betting for this fight and the money has definately been for Lacy. The 6/4 that was originally offered about him seems like huge odds now, best price today is evens and i think that will go soon.
Best price today: (Calzaghe 6/5 Pinnacle) - (Lacy evens Ladbrokes)
Who's favourite with who
Sporting Odds: Calzaghe
Ladbrokes: Calzaghe
Paddy Power: Calzaghe
Blue Square: Calzaghe
Total Bet: Level
William Hill: Level
Sky Bet: Level
UK Betting: Level
Bet Direct: Level
Coral: Lacy
Bet 365: Lacy
Pinnacle: Lacy
Stan James: Lacy
I go for Calzaghe in this fight, by stoppage or decision, but its a close call and its not a fight i'd bet on.
---------------------------------------------------------
On another note, i strongly fancy Mosley to beat Vargas. I think he is way over priced at 4/6 with Blue Square and the Tote. I also like Maccarinelli to beat Nelson, Pinnacle are offering 21/20 for that result, good odds i think. I am also very confident that Magee will beat Froch but i cannot find any odds for that fight yet, can anyone else?
Regards
ALI
What about the pull-out option - I'd price it at about 4:1.
P
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:43
by stujones
William Hill's odds have been changing like the wind - first Calzaghe was a decent favourite (you could get better odds for Lacy than you could Danny Williams vs Skelton and Enzo Mac vs Nelson).
Only last week I viewed the site to see Lacy was the favourite (similar odds to Cazalghe's early price) - now its evens.
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:43
by pundit
Max Molyneux wrote:He hits harder than Sheika!
No he doesn't. Power has never been one of Joe's assets. He hit Mitchell with 20 unanswered shots (as Mitchell was off-balance) and still didn't have much of an impact. And he tried like mad to KO old slow Brewer but couldn't.
Calzaghe's main assets are (i) handspeed, (ii) grit, and (iii) chin. His power is so so - normally his opponents get overwhelmed by the quantity of punches, not their strenght. His main weakness is flat-footedness and defense.
Lacy's power is quite outstanding though. If Calzaghe stands in front of him and slaps - and I don't think Calzaghe knows any other way of fighting - he is taking a serious risk.
P
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:48
by MightyWarrior
Ask Chris Eubank if Calzaghe can hit or not. Plus I don't think Mitchell tripped over his own feet did he.
Re: Calzaghe v Lacy Betting and more......
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:49
by ALI
pundit wrote:What about the pull-out option - I'd price it at about 4:1.
P
Well, i'm naturally worried about that, as is everyone else is. But, for a little bit of needed reassurance that he wont pull out, go over to 'boxing scene' and watch the Calzaghe interview they did when he was in the States for the opening press conference. Calzaghe was super cool and confident and after watching that interview i feel more sure that he will be there on the night, primed and ready to go.
Go watch it........
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:53
by Max Molyneux
pundit wrote:Max Molyneux wrote:He hits harder than Sheika!
No he doesn't. Power has never been one of Joe's assets. He hit Mitchell with 20 unanswered shots (as Mitchell was off-balance) and still didn't have much of an impact. And he tried like mad to KO old slow Brewer but couldn't.
Calzaghe's main assets are (i) handspeed, (ii) grit, and (iii) chin. His power is so so - normally his opponents get overwhelmed by the quantity of punches, not their strenght. His main weakness is flat-footedness and defense.
Lacy's power is quite outstanding though. If Calzaghe stands in front of him and slaps - and I don't think Calzaghe knows any other way of fighting - he is taking a serious risk.
P
Listen to mighty warrior.
No one put Eubank down that fast.
Lacy hasn't proven he can trade with the best yet, we'll see March 4th. I only think Lacy has power because he dropped Reid but Reid traded. If Reid had boxed Lacy would of wona decision. You can have an iron chin but recklessness can still get you dropped. So I don't think he hits harder than Joe.
People who have traded with Joe have been stopped too and those slaps hurt.
Doesn't know any other way? He has and can adjust if needed.
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:53
by stujones
MightyWarrior wrote:Ask Chris Eubank if Calzaghe can hit or not. Plus I don't think Mitchell tripped over his own feet did he.
True, but its a good few years and good few hand injuries later since the Eubank fight - plus, Mitchell was floored and hurt vs fat Light Middle Green.
Herol Graham came closer to stopping a younger, fresher Brewer than Joe did.
Not saying Joe is feather fisted (far from it) but I agree with Pundit's view that if you list Joe's strengths in priority, punch power wouldn't be that high on the list.
It wouldn't be on his weaknesses either.
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:54
by jamesmcdonnell
MightyWarrior wrote:Ask Chris Eubank if Calzaghe can hit or not. Plus I don't think Mitchell tripped over his own feet did he.
Good points, but I think it is fair comment to say that Lacy has better power. Most of Calzaghe's stoppages are from overwhelming a stunned opponent rather than knocking them out.
Lacy by contrast lands bombs, but isn't as quick with the follow up.
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:58
by pundit
stujones wrote:MightyWarrior wrote:Ask Chris Eubank if Calzaghe can hit or not. Plus I don't think Mitchell tripped over his own feet did he.
True, but its a good few years and good few hand injuries later since the Eubank fight - plus, Mitchell was floored and hurt vs fat Light Middle Green.
Herol Graham came closer to stopping a younger, fresher Brewer than Joe did.
Not saying Joe is feather fisted (far from it) but I agree with Pundit's view that if you list Joe's strengths in priority, punch power wouldn't be that high on the list.
It wouldn't be on his weaknesses either.
Let's add one thing: I believe power is an overrated quality anyway. A fighter with so-so power can still be great if he hits fast and precise (well, take Muhammad Ali for starters). A fighter lacking a decent jab, defense, hand- and/or footspeed though can never make it to the top, whatever his power.
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 10:59
by MightyWarrior
Yes punch for punch Lacy looks to have it, can't argue with that. Though I'd guess Joe has the better chin, so things might even out there.
Although I'm not 100% about how much Joe has left these days. But when it comes to a winning mentality, it's seems to border on life & death with Calzaghe - it's like he'd rather die than lose ( last time when he was 17 I think ) and I don't know if Lacy is willing to take it as far as he might need to. Maybe he wont have to - we'll soon know..I hope.
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 11:44
by nickd
Max Molyneux wrote:pundit wrote:Max Molyneux wrote:He hits harder than Sheika!
No he doesn't. Power has never been one of Joe's assets. He hit Mitchell with 20 unanswered shots (as Mitchell was off-balance) and still didn't have much of an impact. And he tried like mad to KO old slow Brewer but couldn't.
Calzaghe's main assets are (i) handspeed, (ii) grit, and (iii) chin. His power is so so - normally his opponents get overwhelmed by the quantity of punches, not their strenght. His main weakness is flat-footedness and defense.
Lacy's power is quite outstanding though. If Calzaghe stands in front of him and slaps - and I don't think Calzaghe knows any other way of fighting - he is taking a serious risk.
P
Listen to mighty warrior.
No one put Eubank down that fast.
Lacy hasn't proven he can trade with the best yet, we'll see March 4th. I only think Lacy has power because he dropped Reid but Reid traded. If Reid had boxed Lacy would of wona decision. You can have an iron chin but recklessness can still get you dropped. So I don't think he hits harder than Joe.
People who have traded with Joe have been stopped too and those slaps hurt.
Doesn't know any other way? He has and can adjust if needed.
Reid traded because Lacy put him in a position where he had to.
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 11:47
by jamesmcdonnell
Think it was partly the case that Reid couldn't find his timing, and therefore couldn't land often enough to keep Lacy off him. Reid looked truly awful that night.
Posted: 08 Feb 2006, 18:22
by Max Molyneux
If only Reid had kept focused on his boxing instead of doing that modeling shit. He could of least stayed decent as he was talented.
Re: Calzaghe v Lacy Betting and more......
Posted: 28 Feb 2006, 07:40
by ALI
ALI wrote:Interesting to note that when the betting first opened for the Calzaghe v Lacy fight that Joe was a slight favourite with almost all of the leading bookmakers. I have been keeping a close watch on the betting for this fight and the money has definately been for Lacy. The 6/4 that was originally offered about him seems like huge odds now, best price today is evens and i think that will go soon.
Best price today: (Calzaghe 6/5 Pinnacle) - (Lacy evens Ladbrokes)
Who's favourite with who
Sporting Odds: Calzaghe
Ladbrokes: Calzaghe
Paddy Power: Calzaghe
Blue Square: Calzaghe
Total Bet: Level
William Hill: Level
Sky Bet: Level
UK Betting: Level
Bet Direct: Level
Coral: Lacy
Bet 365: Lacy
Pinnacle: Lacy
Stan James: Lacy
I go for Calzaghe in this fight, by stoppage or decision, but its a close call and its not a fight i'd bet on.
---------------------------------------------------------
On another note, i strongly fancy Mosley to beat Vargas. I think he is way over priced at 4/6 with Blue Square and the Tote. I also like Maccarinelli to beat Nelson, Pinnacle are offering 21/20 for that result, good odds i think. I am also very confident that Magee will beat Froch but i cannot find any odds for that fight yet, can anyone else?
Regards
ALI
UPDATE
All the money for this fight has been for Jeff Lacy, he is now favourite with all but two of our leading bookmakers. He is odds on right across the board and is best priced today at 5/6 with Ladbrokes.
You can now get 11/10 about Calzaghe with several of the big firms.
When the betting opened for this fight the odds were the direct opposite of todays market, it was Calzaghe who was odds on and Lacy who was odds against.
Anyone got any prices for the Froch/Magee fight yet?
Re: Calzaghe v Lacy Betting and more......
Posted: 28 Feb 2006, 07:43
by states
ALI wrote:
Anyone got any prices for the Froch/Magee fight yet?
You might have to wait a while for those.
Posted: 28 Feb 2006, 07:58
by ALI
Yeah, just read Froch's bottle crashed, er, sorry, he's got an injury
He know's Magee has his number!!!
Posted: 28 Feb 2006, 08:22
by jamesmcdonnell
Which is why the fight has already been scheduled for May? It's only a delay of a few weeks.
Posted: 28 Feb 2006, 08:28
by hitman_hatton1
Terence wrote:Eubank did get up to go the full route with a young Joe so if his power was truly impressive he'd have kept Chris down. I don't recall Chris looking greatly hurt but rather off-balance. It was a long time ago. Can anyone recall a Calzaghe KO since 1997-8!?
nobody would have kept chris eubank down for the count.