BoxRec

Juan Carlos Payano 13/8 to beat Rau'shee Warren. I will cover the draw given it may well go the distance and Payano is boxing on foreign soil.

GlobalBox wrote:Money seems to be coming in on Rose by Ko started 7/2 with Betfred this morning and they have now suspended and you can only get 11/8 and its 5/4 in a place, I know he wobbled him before getting hurt himself and I can see there is an argument for either man getting stopped, but the points is drifting like a barge so someone thinks they know something.

It's very odd. Rose just isn't very good and I don't see any reason to believe he has any advantages that he didn't the first time around, unless, and here's that classic caveat, Jones is just coming for the payday.

Absolutely baffled by the Rose-Jones odds.

First fight prices where:

Rose 1/5
Jones 10/3

Rose Pts 8/15
Rose KO 11/4
Jones Pts 12/1
Jones KO 11/2

Outrigh odds for Saturday's fight are:

Rose 4/9
Jones 7/4

I expected the following 'Method of Victory' prices based on the first fight:

Rose Pts 4/5
Rose KO 7/2
Jones Pts 15/2
Jones KO 3/1

I make Rose on points 4/5 and you can get 5/2!! I was hoping that I'd be able to get 4/1+ about the Rose KO given he wobbled Jones early last time, I thought would be the value bet but I can't not back Rose on Points at 5/2, the same bet was 8/15 5 months ago!

Riddick Blowe wrote:

GlobalBox wrote:Money seems to be coming in on Rose by Ko started 7/2 with Betfred this morning and they have now suspended and you can only get 11/8 and its 5/4 in a place, I know he wobbled him before getting hurt himself and I can see there is an argument for either man getting stopped, but the points is drifting like a barge so someone thinks they know something.

It's very odd. Rose just isn't very good and I don't see any reason to believe he has any advantages that he didn't the first time around, unless, and here's that classic caveat, Jones is just coming for the payday.

I guess the only extra advantage he has is the catchweight with the fight being at 158 and not 154, I know he made noises about the weight being a bit harder to make last time, so that will help him and he clearly wants the fight badly having agreed to a pay cut according to an article I read the other day. Think this fight could see prices moving on outright and all options of how to win for the next couple of days and upto fight time, no one is sure I don't think, including both boxers.

Stan James offering a staggering 16/1 on Jones by decision. Not that I'm tipping that outcome but would expect no more than 10/1.

bruthead wrote:Stan James offering a staggering 16/1 on Jones by decision. Not that I'm tipping that outcome but would expect no more than 10/1.

The thinking must be that if Jones lands enough to warrant a pts victory he will have stopped Rose before final bell, for what its worth I had it a 14s shot with all my percentage on either by ko or Rose pts

Garcia 7/4 to stop malignaggi think that's a great price

bruthead wrote:Stan James offering a staggering 16/1 on Jones by decision. Not that I'm tipping that outcome but would expect no more than 10/1.

Gotta love Stan 'We don't want anyone's money' James, the only time the tight f*ckers offer odds longer than the competition it's on a result that probably could easily be priced at 16/1 anyway since it ain't happening. Exactly how many people do they expect to sucker in with this?

This book may as well just never give prices for boxing at all.

18/1 on Campbell in round 1 looks a bit tempting. I can see Luke overwhelming Coyle early doors with that speed and volume once he sees his opponent doesn't have a great defence.

Riddick Blowe wrote:18/1 on Campbell in round 1 looks a bit tempting. I can see Luke overwhelming Coyle early doors with that speed and volume once he sees his opponent doesn't have a great defence.

No chance it's over in 1.

A bit of a strange one, but got Corbyn for next UK PM @22 earlier this week...dropped a bit since then

Shanemc wrote:Garcia 7/4 to stop malignaggi think that's a great price

i agree. when is that fight?

freddydoesdallas wrote:

Shanemc wrote:Garcia 7/4 to stop malignaggi think that's a great price

i agree. when is that fight?

Saturday night BT Sport down to 6/4 now but I reckon still a good price

Shanemc wrote:

freddydoesdallas wrote:

Shanemc wrote:Garcia 7/4 to stop malignaggi think that's a great price

i agree. when is that fight?

Saturday night BT Sport down to 6/4 now but I reckon still a good price

That depends how shot Paulie is. Garcia wont ever stop prime Malignaggi.

Riddick Blowe wrote:18/1 on Campbell in round 1 looks a bit tempting. I can see Luke overwhelming Coyle early doors with that speed and volume once he sees his opponent doesn't have a great defence.

Good call that. Luke will out to impress and will be 100% focused on this, as it's his coming out party as a pro.

My logic for an early finish is that it's a massive home crowd and if anyone gets hurt the crowd will go nuts and I think that's off putting for the hurt fighter and spur on the aggressor.

keithmoonhangover wrote:

Riddick Blowe wrote:18/1 on Campbell in round 1 looks a bit tempting. I can see Luke overwhelming Coyle early doors with that speed and volume once he sees his opponent doesn't have a great defence.

Good call that. Luke will out to impress and will be 100% focused on this, as it's his coming out party as a pro.

My logic for an early finish is that it's a massive home crowd and if anyone gets hurt the crowd will go nuts and I think that's off putting for the hurt fighter and spur on the aggressor.

Plus the UK refs love to dive in with quick guys like Campbell who'll be putting shots together.

Think I'll have a little on rd 1 and hedge 2 and 3. Coyle is a defensive mess and doesn't have much of a chin either. Campbell will take him out the first chance he gets, and that chance will be early. Anything 14/1 and up and I would have backed this, 18s is very good. With Hills of all people.

Campbell rds 1-4 is 11/4 with skybet, had a bit of that too. It's hard for me to envisage Coyle lasting much past 4.

Riddick Blowe wrote:

keithmoonhangover wrote:

Riddick Blowe wrote:18/1 on Campbell in round 1 looks a bit tempting. I can see Luke overwhelming Coyle early doors with that speed and volume once he sees his opponent doesn't have a great defence.

Good call that. Luke will out to impress and will be 100% focused on this, as it's his coming out party as a pro.

My logic for an early finish is that it's a massive home crowd and if anyone gets hurt the crowd will go nuts and I think that's off putting for the hurt fighter and spur on the aggressor.

Plus the UK refs love to dive in with quick guys like Campbell who'll be putting shots together.

Think I'll have a little on rd 1 and hedge 2 and 3. Coyle is a defensive mess and doesn't have much of a chin either. Campbell will take him out the first chance he gets, and that chance will be early. Anything 14/1 and up and I would have backed this, 18s is very good. With Hills of all people.

Campbell rds 1-4 is 11/4 with skybet, had a bit of that too. It's hard for me to envisage Coyle lasting much past 4.

I'll be getting on it after work. I've got a respect for you on the betting front and I like to think I can usually get it right - with the odd terrible exception!!!

haven't done a whole lot of betting this year mate, i would advise you have more respect for the likes of insider, globalbox, boxing prospect, bruthead et al than me. disclaimer :)

Difficult to find any value this weekend for me. As mentioned earlier the Garcia stoppage looks favorable. Possibly in the second half of the fight. Think thats all for me.

Anyone see the method of victory odds for raushee warren vs juan carlos payano? Stan james has warren odds on to win on points but both bet365 and betvictor have the points with at 13/2 and 6/1 respectively surely this is a mistake as they have the warren stoppage as odds on

Shanemc wrote:Anyone see the method of victory odds for raushee warren vs juan carlos payano? Stan james has warren odds on to win on points but both bet365 and betvictor have the points with at 13/2 and 6/1 respectively surely this is a mistake as they have the warren stoppage as odds on

Mistake by 365 and Betvictor, pts price should be the lesser price.

Unusual one for two books to get it back to front but you'd have to think Warren decision should be the favourite, not Warren KO.

Looks like 365 had the line first so if someone from Victor has just cluelessly copied it, that's pretty hilarious.

bruthead wrote:Unusual one for two books to get it back to front but you'd have to think Warren decision should be the favourite, not Warren KO.

Looks like 365 had the line first so if someone from Victor has just cluelessly copied it, that's pretty hilarious.

Yeah that's what I was surprised by worth putting a few quid on both bookies and hopefully they don't void

365 have flipped their line but haven't void my bet yet...

To their credit, they didn't void me when they briefly had Richar Abril and Derry Mathews both at 5/6 and I hammered Abril. Was gutted when he pulled out of the fight!

Update: they messaged me to say the bet would now stand at 5/6 unless I want to cancel it. Of course I want to cancel it! Oh well, worth a try.

BV still have Warren via points at 6/1. Hit that with Bet365 K/O @ 13/2 and keep em crossed.