BoxRec

Posted: **14 Aug 2006, 17:56**

jujigatame wrote:Ok, look, why don't you then explain to me how you decided on the current criteria for what fights are counted in the predictive rate. I want to know how you came to define the criteria.

If you have already done this in a prior post, I apologize, but there is a bit of a language barrier here and some of your posts have been very confusing to me.

So this is quite simple - but can be read in the ratings description ...

- all bouts since 2000-01-01 between established (launched boxers)
- the bouts should be not too far in history, as the sport and thus the parameters might depend on times - and we focus on current ratings
- we need enough bouts to ensure significance in the tests

Posted: **14 Aug 2006, 19:12**

What I'm particularly curious about is how you decided what would make an "established" boxer. How did you decide what "launches" a boxer?

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 04:00**

jujigatame wrote:What I'm particularly curious about is how you decided what would make an "established" boxer. How did you decide what "launches" a boxer?

Please look at the ratings description - launching system:

http://www.boxrec.com/media/index.php/B ... escription

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 05:21**

hey jugi,

you slightly misunderstood my position on the 'predictive' rankings. I do not consider the predictability statistic as artificial, it is a valid statistical test of the results. I consider it wrong to use it as the only measure of the currently published rankings for active boxers on boxrec.

I consider several statements about 'being the best' as artificial. Mathematically it is impossible to prove that the current metrics used in the formulas produce the best results. I started a thread to test this, but was interrupted by my holidays (unfortunately I missed then the Sechew Powell loss, which was notable because he was boxrecs number 1).

The overwhelming feedback of the community towards the rankings is disbelief and confusion. It is either brave or foolish of John Shep to pursue such an approach. I have tried to convince Martin otherwise, but to say the least, Martin is convinced in his approach.

I am thus thankful for Martin, that he is trying another approach at the moment, which is more in line with traditional rankings. This is work in progress, please feel free to participate.

cheers

conan

/edit/

p.s. I forgot to add, that the problem that I see solely relying on the predictive statistic is a cyclic one. The fighters that end up at the top are the fighters that are the most predictable. Hence the Shannon Briggs and Stipe Drews of the world end up on top.

Martin has another view on this, justified by his launched fighters statistics. Martin claims selective memory on our part, that the fighters who are now at the top, were once like the Tony Thompsons of today. my counter claim is that the top is a pyramid, and for every Tony Thompson in the top ten, there's a Rydell Booker or hector comancho jnr who didn't make the grade. But this is an old debate that I have with Martin, and I see little point in continuing it.

If I could change two single things in the predictive rankings, then I would change the following.

a) the grade used in launching fighters should form part of the points u get for beating a fighter. The grades should be extended all the way up to infinity.

b) given that people review the top 25 fighters more intensely than any other range, the predictability statistic should weight fights between top 25 fighters higher. This might shed some light on whether fighters like Shannon Briggs, Sechew Powell, Chad Dawson, Calvin Brock have climbed too far, too soon.

/end edit/

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 08:39**

... now the results for a traditional ranking with smaller division change multiplier of 1.5 is better - rule R6 changed:

6 simple rules

R1) winner was better ranked than loser
-> no change

R2) winner was worse ranked than loser
-> winner gets loser's rank
-> loser gets geometric mean rank of winner and loser

R3) draw
-> no change

R4) inactivity
-> after 18 months of inactivity the boxer is removed from the division
-> his background ranking is multilpied with factor 3 for every complete inactivity period of 18 months
-> in case of come back, the background ranking is activated and 1 reank added

R5) missing quality of opponents
-> after 18 months of missing an opponent within factor 3 of own rank, quality is missing
-> for top 15 the tolerance area is within rank 45
-> the boxer's rank is multiplied with 2 and 1 rank added for missing quality of opponents

R6) division change
-> for move up the rank is multiplied by a factor 1.5 per division and 1 rank added
-> for move to heayvweight 10 ranks are added
-> for move down the rank unchanged

Results until August 3, 2006 - prediction rate 67.1%:

M Heavyweight 1 Nikolay Valuev
M Heavyweight 2 Hasim Rahman
M Heavyweight 3 John Ruiz
M Heavyweight 4 Wladimir Klitschko
M Heavyweight 5 Calvin Brock
M Heavyweight 6 James Toney
M Heavyweight 7 Chris Byrd
M Heavyweight 9 Matt Skelton
M Heavyweight 10 Serguei Lyakhovich
M Heavyweight 11 Lamon Brewster
M Heavyweight 12 DaVarryl Williamson
M Heavyweight 13 Luan Krasniqi
M Heavyweight 14 Zuri Lawrence
M Heavyweight 15 Larry Donald
M Heavyweight 16 Samuel Peter
M Heavyweight 17 Sultan Ibragimov
M Heavyweight 18 Damian Wills
M Heavyweight 19 Danny Williams
M Heavyweight 20 Tony Thompson

M Cruiserweight 1 Guillermo Jones
M Cruiserweight 2 Johnny Nelson
M Cruiserweight 3 O'Neil Bell
M Cruiserweight 4 Jean Marc Mormeck
M Cruiserweight 5 Steve Cunningham
M Cruiserweight 8 Wayne Braithwaite
M Cruiserweight 9 Antonio Mercado
M Cruiserweight 10 Enzo Maccarinelli
M Cruiserweight 11 Aloryi Moyoyo Mensah
M Cruiserweight 12 Vadim Tokarev
M Cruiserweight 13 Vincenzo Cantatore
M Cruiserweight 15 David Haye
M Cruiserweight 16 Nicolay Popov
M Cruiserweight 17 Vincenzo Rossitto
M Cruiserweight 18 Krzysztof Wlodarczyk
M Cruiserweight 19 Felix Cora Jr.
M Cruiserweight 20 Darnell Wilson

M Light Heavyweight 1 Zsolt Erdei
M Light Heavyweight 3 Glen Johnson
M Light Heavyweight 4 Antonio Tarver
M Light Heavyweight 5 Roy Jones Jr
M Light Heavyweight 6 Fabrice Tiozzo
M Light Heavyweight 7 Clinton Woods
M Light Heavyweight 8 Julio Gonzalez
M Light Heavyweight 9 Tomasz Adamek
M Light Heavyweight 12 Thomas Ulrich
M Light Heavyweight 15 Mehdi Sahnoune
M Light Heavyweight 16 Chad Dawson
M Light Heavyweight 17 Stipe Drews
M Light Heavyweight 19 Prince Badi Ajamu

M Super Middleweight 1 Joe Calzaghe
M Super Middleweight 2 Mikkel Kessler
M Super Middleweight 3 Jeff Lacy
M Super Middleweight 4 Markus Beyer
M Super Middleweight 7 Rudy Markussen
M Super Middleweight 9 Anthony Mundine
M Super Middleweight 10 Danilo Haussler
M Super Middleweight 11 Mger Mkrtchian
M Super Middleweight 12 Jose Luis Herrera
M Super Middleweight 13 Danny Green
M Super Middleweight 14 Carl Froch
M Super Middleweight 15 Lucian Bute
M Super Middleweight 17 Cristian Sanavia
M Super Middleweight 19 Vitali Tsypko

M Middleweight 1 Jermain Taylor
M Middleweight 3 Ronald Wright
M Middleweight 9 Arthur Abraham
M Middleweight 10 Kelly Pavlik
M Middleweight 12 Edison Miranda
M Middleweight 13 Sam Soliman
M Middleweight 14 Javier Castillejo
M Middleweight 16 Bronco McKart
M Middleweight 17 Raymond Joval
M Middleweight 19 Kingsley Ikeke

M Light Middleweight 1 Shane Mosley
M Light Middleweight 2 Sergio Gabriel Martinez
M Light Middleweight 3 Cory Spinks
M Light Middleweight 4 Oscar De La Hoya
M Light Middleweight 5 Fernando Vargas
M Light Middleweight 6 Ricardo Mayorga
M Light Middleweight 7 Ike Quartey
M Light Middleweight 8 Michele Piccirillo
M Light Middleweight 9 Roman Karmazin
M Light Middleweight 10 Ian MacKillop
M Light Middleweight 11 Kassim Ouma
M Light Middleweight 15 Jamie Moore
M Light Middleweight 16 Vernon Forrest
M Light Middleweight 16 Marco Antonio Avendano
M Light Middleweight 17 Sergiy Dzinziruk
M Light Middleweight 18 Rodney Jones
M Light Middleweight 19 Sebastian Andres Lujan

M Welterweight 1 Carlos Manuel Baldomir
M Welterweight 3 Floyd Mayweather Jr
M Welterweight 4 Ricky Hatton
M Welterweight 5 Antonio Margarito
M Welterweight 6 Kermit Cintron
M Welterweight 7 Zab Judah
M Welterweight 8 Luis Collazo
M Welterweight 9 Sharmba Mitchell
M Welterweight 11 Oktay Urkal
M Welterweight 12 Dondon Sultan
M Welterweight 14 Arturo Gatti
M Welterweight 15 Frederic Klose
M Welterweight 16 Juan Lazcano
M Welterweight 17 Ben Tackie
M Welterweight 18 Carlos Quintana

M Light Welterweight 3 Jose Luis Castillo
M Light Welterweight 5 Miguel Angel Cotto
M Light Welterweight 7 Carlos Maussa
M Light Welterweight 9 DeMarcus Corley
M Light Welterweight 11 Courtney Burton
M Light Welterweight 12 Demetrius Hopkins
M Light Welterweight 13 Jonathan Thaxton
M Light Welterweight 14 Lamont Peterson
M Light Welterweight 15 Junior Witter
M Light Welterweight 16 Cesar Rene Cuenca
M Light Welterweight 17 Miguel Callist
M Light Welterweight 19 Lenny Daws

M Lightweight 1 Diego Corrales
M Lightweight 3 Acelino Freitas
M Lightweight 4 Zahir Raheem
M Lightweight 5 Julio Diaz
M Lightweight 7 Jesus Chavez
M Lightweight 8 Ricky Quiles
M Lightweight 11 Aldo Nazareno Rios
M Lightweight 12 Juan Diaz
M Lightweight 13 Fernando David Saucedo
M Lightweight 15 Diego Martin Alzugaray
M Lightweight 18 Joel Casamayor
M Lightweight 19 Joan Guzman
M Lightweight 20 Sergio Eduardo Gonzalez

M Super Featherweight 1 Manny Pacquiao
M Super Featherweight 2 Erik Morales
M Super Featherweight 2 Humberto Soto
M Super Featherweight 3 Marco Antonio Barrera
M Super Featherweight 4 Gairy St Clair
M Super Featherweight 5 Jorge Rodrigo Barrios
M Super Featherweight 6 Janos Nagy
M Super Featherweight 7 Manuel Medina
M Super Featherweight 8 Alex Arthur
M Super Featherweight 10 Oscar Larios
M Super Featherweight 11 Vicente Mosquera
M Super Featherweight 12 Bobby Pacquiao
M Super Featherweight 13 Roberto David Arrieta
M Super Featherweight 14 Kevin Kelley
M Super Featherweight 15 Robbie Peden
M Super Featherweight 17 Cassius Baloyi
M Super Featherweight 18 Jose Alberto Gonzalez
M Super Featherweight 20 Javier Osvaldo Alvarez

M Featherweight 2 Oscar Leon
M Featherweight 3 Sandro Marcos
M Featherweight 4 Thomas Mashaba
M Featherweight 5 Scott Harrison
M Featherweight 6 Chris John
M Featherweight 9 Juan Manuel Marquez
M Featherweight 10 Jorge Lacierva
M Featherweight 13 Spend Abazi
M Featherweight 15 Juan Gerardo Cabrera
M Featherweight 19 Eric Aiken

M Super Bantamweight 1 Israel Vazquez
M Super Bantamweight 2 Somsak Sithchatchawal
M Super Bantamweight 4 Wethya Sakmuangklang
M Super Bantamweight 7 Steve Molitor
M Super Bantamweight 10 Takalani Ndlovu
M Super Bantamweight 12 Julio Zarate
M Super Bantamweight 14 Katsushige Kawashima
M Super Bantamweight 17 Ratanachai Sor Vorapin
M Super Bantamweight 18 Mauricio Pastrana
M Super Bantamweight 20 Sergio Manuel Medina

M Bantamweight 1 Hozumi Hasegawa
M Bantamweight 2 Rafael Marquez
M Bantamweight 3 Irene Pacheco
M Bantamweight 4 Veeraphol Sahaprom
M Bantamweight 5 Silence Mabuza
M Bantamweight 6 Heriberto Ruiz
M Bantamweight 7 Simone Maludrottu
M Bantamweight 9 Alejandro Valdez
M Bantamweight 10 Samuel Lopez
M Bantamweight 11 Wladimir Sidorenko
M Bantamweight 12 Johnny Bredahl
M Bantamweight 13 Jhonny Gonzalez
M Bantamweight 14 Fernando Montiel
M Bantamweight 16 Damaen Kelly
M Bantamweight 19 Mauricio Martinez

M Super Flyweight 1 Masamori Tokuyama
M Super Flyweight 3 Nobuo Nashiro
M Super Flyweight 6 Simon Ramoni
M Super Flyweight 9 Martin Castillo
M Super Flyweight 11 Pramuansak Posuwan
M Super Flyweight 13 Rosendo Alvarez
M Super Flyweight 16 Cristian Mijares
M Super Flyweight 17 Luis Alberto Perez

M Flyweight 1 Lorenzo Parra
M Flyweight 2 Jorge Armando Arce
M Flyweight 3 Vic Darchinyan
M Flyweight 4 Brahim Asloum
M Flyweight 5 Charitt Mukondelela
M Flyweight 6 Pongsaklek Wonjongkam
M Flyweight 10 Omar Andres Narvaez
M Flyweight 11 Akhona Aliva
M Flyweight 12 Hussein Hussein
M Flyweight 13 Daisuke Naito
M Flyweight 14 Lee Haskins
M Flyweight 16 Monelisi Mhikiza Myekeni
M Flyweight 17 Alejandro Hernandez
M Flyweight 19 Moruti Mthalane

M Light Flyweight 1 Roberto Vasquez
M Light Flyweight 2 Muvhuso Nedzanani
M Light Flyweight 4 Mfundo Gwayana
M Light Flyweight 6 Munetsugu Kayo
M Light Flyweight 7 Sizwe Sinyabi
M Light Flyweight 8 Koki Kameda
M Light Flyweight 11 Wandee Singwangcha
M Light Flyweight 13 Samora Msopi
M Light Flyweight 15 Noel Arambulet
M Light Flyweight 16 Vuyani Kheswa
M Light Flyweight 17 Juanito Rubillar
M Light Flyweight 18 Junichi Ebisuoka

M Minimumweight 1 Muhammad Rachman
M Minimumweight 2 Yutaka Niida
M Minimumweight 3 Eagle Kyowa
M Minimumweight 4 Nkosinathi Joyi
M Minimumweight 5 Katsunari Takayama
M Minimumweight 6 Mawanda Sineko
M Minimumweight 7 Ivan Calderon
M Minimumweight 9 Gabriel Pumar
M Minimumweight 10 Isaac Bustos
M Minimumweight 11 Carlos Melo
M Minimumweight 12 Florante Condes
M Minimumweight 14 Thobani Mbangeni
M Minimumweight 15 Lulama Ngqaka
M Minimumweight 16 Omar Soto
M Minimumweight 17 Satoshi Kogumazaka
M Minimumweight 18 Armand de la Cruz
M Minimumweight 19 Teruo Misawa
M Minimumweight 20 Pornsawan Kratingdaenggym

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 09:18**

computerrank wrote:
jujigatame wrote:What I'm particularly curious about is how you decided what would make an "established" boxer. How did you decide what "launches" a boxer?
Please look at the ratings description - launching system:

http://www.boxrec.com/media/index.php/B ... escription

You are not answering my question. I know what the launching system is. What I want to know is how you came up with it.

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 09:30**

jujigatame wrote:
computerrank wrote:
jujigatame wrote:What I'm particularly curious about is how you decided what would make an "established" boxer. How did you decide what "launches" a boxer?
Please look at the ratings description - launching system:

http://www.boxrec.com/media/index.php/B ... escription
You are not answering my question. I know what the launching system is. What I want to know is how you came up with it.

The basic idea behind is to ensure, that opponents defeated are good enough.

The launched boxer will have defeated boxers, who defeated boxers, who defeated boxers etc. up to a certain level.

So it will never be enough
- to defeat winless boxers
- or to defeat boxers, who only defeated winless boxers
- or to defeat boxers, who defeated boxers, who defeated winless boxers

It proved, that the maximum grade (15) now used in the launching system, is only reached by few boxers. Most good boxers defeat an already launched boxer before reaching the maximum grade and are so launched too.

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 09:57**

Hi Martin,

the list is starting to look very good, across all divisions. But where has Chris Johns, the number one feather gone?

conan

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 10:08**

conan_the_cribber wrote:Hi Martin,

the list is starting to look very good, across all divisions. But where has Chris Johns, the number one feather gone?

conan

... just forgot to copy featherweight ... I edited the original message ...

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 10:13**

computerrank wrote:
jujigatame wrote:
computerrank wrote: Please look at the ratings description - launching system:

http://www.boxrec.com/media/index.php/B ... escription
You are not answering my question. I know what the launching system is. What I want to know is how you came up with it.
The basic idea behind is to ensure, that opponents defeated are good enough.

The launched boxer will have defeated boxers, who defeated boxers, who defeated boxers etc. up to a certain level.

So it will never be enough
- to defeat winless boxers
- or to defeat boxers, who only defeated winless boxers
- or to defeat boxers, who defeated boxers, who defeated winless boxers

It proved, that the maximum grade (15) now used in the launching system, is only reached by few boxers. Most good boxers defeat an already launched boxer before reaching the maximum grade and are so launched too.

Martin,

The launching system protects against complete abuse of the system. However I think jugi's point, and that of most observers, is that it doesn't protect against the Shannon Briggs, Tony Thompson and many of the world.

I think this is an example Martin, of where you allowed other considerations other than the predictive statistic to affect the appearance of the rankings. If you left people who beat up on 0-1 fighters or people who beat up on people that beat up on 0-2 fighters in the mix, then you would have a better prediction statistic.

However, you, John or whoever, didn't want to do that, you didn't want to comprimise your credability that far. You implemented the launching system because you didn't want your rankings to appear manipulated by people who had been beating up on nobodies. It is therefore not much of a mental leap to make the next jump i.e. people dont want Shannon Briggs profitting from the algorithm by beating up on "next to nobodies".

You see, if there is a precedent for where you sacrificed predictability for credability, then you have to be able to answer the question "What conditions must arise, for me to make that sacrifice again". Currently the predictability rankings are in such a state, that they are simply not taken seriously by the majority of posters here. An editor published on this thread, that Shannon Briggs manager was proudly boasting that he has the #6 heavy in the world now, though every man and dog know its not true.

The question you and John have to ask yourself is, has it reached such a point in time, where predictability needs to be sacrificed for credability?

conan

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 10:38**

conan,

the decision is already done.

There will be no other goal and measure besides the prediction rate. All the boxers launched are treated equal.

We know, there are problems with the acceptance. But will not hide anything - we show all for free discussion.

We hope to find a way to catch any problems by finding some criteria or parameters to fix it - and not hurt the rate, but maybe improve it.

Concerning the launching system - this is not an unknown problem with performance ratings. In other sports it is not such critical as we have much more match-ups (see chess etc.)

So we decided to separate the boxers, missing valuable opponents. This does not hurt the ratings in any way. It is simply a common initialisation procedure. So look at the unlaunched boxers as provisional graded.

By the way and again - I analysed the results of the high rated boxers boxers, whose recent opponents were far below their own rating, and found, they didn't show worse in their next bouts than high rated boxers, who recently faced better opponents before.

So there is no objective criteria for me at the moment to cut them down - this all besides the fact, that cutting down them would worsen the predicition rate.

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 10:43**

I must agree with Conan. I don't think the launching system goes far enough in preventing bum-beaters from abusing the ratings. I think you need to make the launching system more harsh or totally revamp the method by which you decide which fights are "counted" by the predictive rate.

By the way, I did the math, and if Shannon Briggs were to TKO Brian Minto, he would become the #1 HW in the world by the current system.

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 10:45**

jujigatame wrote:I must agree with Conan. I don't think the launching system goes far enough in preventing bum-beaters from abusing the ratings. I think you need to make the launching system more harsh or totally revamp the method by which you decide which fights are "counted" by the predictive rate.

By the way, I did the math, and if Shannon Briggs were to TKO Brian Minto, he would become the #1 HW in the world by the current system.

If it came in the 1st half of the fight, thats probably correct. Otherwise, he'd probably end up #2.

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 10:50**

jujigatame wrote:I must agree with Conan. I don't think the launching system goes far enough in preventing bum-beaters from abusing the ratings. I think you need to make the launching system more harsh or totally revamp the method by which you decide which fights are "counted" by the predictive rate.

By the way, I did the math, and if Shannon Briggs were to TKO Brian Minto, he would become the #1 HW in the world by the current system.

... it looks more he will face Waldimir Klitschko ...

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 10:55**

And you can't see how patently ridiculous that is?

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 11:07**

jujigatame wrote:And you can't see how patently ridiculous that is?

... Ruiz lost to Valuev ... Rahman lost to Maskaev ... Brewster lost to Lyakhovich ...

These ratings are not for ranks, but have an uncertainty in pointage of about 100 points - as I often told.

So what are you guys bothering about some points and ranks. How can you be so sure - you always know, how the world is built.

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 11:12**

computerrank wrote:conan,

By the way and again - I analysed the results of the high rated boxers boxers (edit - bumbeaters), whose recent opponents were far below their own rating, and found, they didn't show worse in their next bouts than high rated boxers (edit - contendors), who recently faced better opponents before.

So there is no objective criteria for me at the moment to cut them down - this all besides the fact, that cutting down them would worsen the predicition rate.

I missed the purpose of that. Nobody is claiming that bum beaters are going to do worse in their next bout as contendors. In fact I would expect a bumbeater to do even better, than someone who is in the mix and most likely taking on a more competitive fight as their next fight.

Like I mentioned before, I'd be interested in the predictability for top 25 match ups. Too far too soon for Sechew Powell and Prince Badi.

conan

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 11:18**

So what are you guys bothering about some points and ranks. How can you be so sure - you always know, how the world is built.

Because they are indicative of a larger problem.

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 11:22**

conan,

I missed the purpose of that. Nobody is claiming that bum beaters are going to do worse in their next bout as contendors. In fact I would expect a bumbeater to do even better, than someone who is in the mix and most likely taking on a more competitive fight as their next fight.

-> I analysed and told you, they not only do better against their next bums (this is evident) - they do not worse than their ratings says as soon as they meet competition!

Like I mentioned before, I'd be interested in the predictability for top 25 match ups. Too far too soon for Sechew Powell and Prince Badi.

-> what do you mean with this????

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 11:25**

computerrank wrote:
jujigatame wrote:And you can't see how patently ridiculous that is?
... Ruiz lost to Valuev ... Rahman lost to Maskaev ... Brewster lost to Lyakhovich ...

These ratings are not for ranks, but have an uncertainty in pointage of about 100 points - as I often told.

So what are you guys bothering about some points and ranks. How can you be so sure - you always know, how the world is built.

Without wanting to go round in circles again, the answer to your question is in my very first post since coming back here. It's an aspect of the domain space that you are working in Martin. For ever and a day in boxing, you had to earn the number one ranking. Your ratings (which are rankings because you can sort them numerically) go against the grain of this long standing domain aspect. The public perception, and my own, is that a victory over "46yo Tony Tubbs victim Brian Minto" should never be enough to propel anyone to number one. This has simply not been earned.

Hence the eternal conflict between tradionalists and the rankings.

conan

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 11:29**

... Hence the eternal conflict between tradionalists and the rankings ...

Amen

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 11:40**

computerrank wrote:conan,

I missed the purpose of that. Nobody is claiming that bum beaters are going to do worse in their next bout as contendors. In fact I would expect a bumbeater to do even better, than someone who is in the mix and most likely taking on a more competitive fight as their next fight.

-> I analysed and told you, they not only do better against their next bums (this is evident) - they do not worse than their ratings says as soon as they meet competition!

if this is what you meant, then I understand. It wasn't clear in your post, that is why I asked for clarification. Thanks for the answer

Like I mentioned before, I'd be interested in the predictability for top 25 match ups. Too far too soon for Sechew Powell and Prince Badi.

-> what do you mean with this????

I meant as I posted earlier in the p.s. I'll attempt to clarify it. Below.

The clarification.

Most people are primarily interested in the top 10 fighters in a division. The hard core people can probably name you the top 25 people in a division and are interested primarily in them. Thus the most critical feedback that you will get around the ratings will revolve around the people in this bracket i.e. how they got there and how they are likely to perform in the future.

As such, a very important metric to test the validity of the rankings is the performance of match ups in this highly visible range i.e. when two top 25 fighters meet. I would consider this sort of 'predictability' to be more important than the overall predicability. I really can't present an argument as to who should be ranked ahead of each other between Lou Savarese, Egon Roth and Cengis Koc (all in the range 100-105), but I can and would be willing present an argument as to why Shannon Briggs should be behind Lamon Brewster.

I dont imagine the predictability to be so good for this range, but if it is truly terrible and there is a surprising majority of upsets when the Rydell Bookers, the Hector Camachos, the Wlads, step up and fail, then this is a warning signal for the algorithm.

That is what I was trying to explain.

Thanks for patiently reading all these things.

conan

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 11:52**

... as I don't trace the ranks but the rating points, I will evaluate all bouts with both boxers above a mimimum rating - say

- 1500 for heavyweight, middleweight, welterweight some classic divisions

- all bouts since 2000-01-01

we will see ...

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 12:48**

... result:

- 65.5 % right - 34.5% wrong
- 116 bouts

not bad for bouts within narrow pointages

Code: Select all

false M Heavyweight          2000-04-01 W RTD Chris Byrd vs Vitali Klitschko
false M Heavyweight          2000-04-29 W KO  Lennox Lewis vs Michael Grant
true  M Heavyweight          2000-05-06 W UD  Clifford Etienne vs Lamon Brewster
true  M Middleweight         2000-05-13 W UD  Bernard Hopkins vs Syd Vanderpool
true  M Middleweight         2000-05-20 W TKO William Joppy vs Rito Ruvalcaba
true  M Heavyweight          2000-06-16 W UD  Andrew Golota vs Orlin Norris
false M Welterweight         2000-06-17 W SD  Shane Mosley vs Oscar De La Hoya
true  M Heavyweight          2000-07-15 W TKO Wladimir Klitschko vs Monte Barrett
false M Heavyweight          2000-08-12 W UD  Evander Holyfield vs John Ruiz
false M Heavyweight          2000-10-07 W KO  Kirk Johnson vs Oleg Maskaev
false M Heavyweight          2000-10-07 W TKO Lance Whitaker vs Robert Davis
true  M Heavyweight          2000-10-14 W UD  Wladimir Klitschko vs Chris Byrd
true  M Welterweight         2000-11-04 W TKO Shane Mosley vs Antonio Diaz
true  M Heavyweight          2000-11-11 W UD  Clifford Etienne vs Lawrence Clay Bey
true  M Heavyweight          2000-11-11 W UD  Lennox Lewis vs David Tua
annual ratings year 2000
false M Welterweight         2001-02-17 W TKO Andrew Lewis vs James Page
false M Heavyweight          2001-03-03 W UD  John Ruiz vs Evander Holyfield
true  M Heavyweight          2001-03-10 W KO  Lance Whitaker vs Oleg Maskaev
true  M Welterweight         2001-03-10 W TKO Shane Mosley vs Shannan Taylor
true  M Heavyweight          2001-03-23 W KO  David Tua vs Danell Nicholson
false M Heavyweight          2001-03-23 W TKO Fres Oquendo vs Clifford Etienne
true  M Welterweight         2001-03-24 W TKO Oscar De La Hoya vs Arturo Gatti
true  M Middleweight         2001-04-14 W UD  Bernard Hopkins vs Keith Holmes
false M Heavyweight          2001-04-22 L KO  Lennox Lewis vs Hasim Rahman
true  M Middleweight         2001-05-12 W TKO Felix Trinidad vs William Joppy
true  M Heavyweight          2001-06-09 W TKO Danny Williams vs Kali Meehan
true  M Heavyweight          2001-07-07 W UD  Kirk Johnson vs Larry Donald
true  M Welterweight         2001-07-21 W KO  Shane Mosley vs Adrian Stone
true  M Heavyweight          2001-08-04 W TKO Wladimir Klitschko vs Charles Shufford
true  M Heavyweight          2001-08-18 W UD  Chris Byrd vs David Tua
false M Middleweight         2001-09-29 L TKO Felix Trinidad vs Bernard Hopkins
false M Heavyweight          2001-10-13 L RTD Brian Nielsen vs Mike Tyson
true  M Middleweight         2001-11-17 W MD  William Joppy vs Howard Eastman
true  M Heavyweight          2001-11-17 W KO  Lennox Lewis vs Hasim Rahman
false M Heavyweight          2001-12-01 W UD  Jameel McCline vs Lance Whitaker
annual ratings year 2001
false M Welterweight         2002-01-26 W UD  Vernon Forrest vs Shane Mosley
true  M Middleweight         2002-02-02 W TKO Bernard Hopkins vs Carl Daniels
false M Welterweight         2002-03-16 W TKO Antonio Margarito vs Antonio Diaz
false M Welterweight         2002-03-30 W TKO Ricardo Mayorga vs Andrew Lewis
true  M Middleweight         2002-04-06 W UD  Harry Simon vs Armand Krajnc
false M Heavyweight          2002-04-13 W TKO David Tua vs Fres Oquendo
true  M Welterweight         2002-05-18 W MD  Micky Ward vs Arturo Gatti
true  M Heavyweight          2002-06-08 W KO  Lennox Lewis vs Mike Tyson
true  M Heavyweight          2002-06-29 W TKO Wladimir Klitschko vs Ray Mercer
true  M Welterweight         2002-07-20 W UD  Vernon Forrest vs Shane Mosley
true  M Heavyweight          2002-07-26 W TKO DaVarryl Williamson vs Corey Sanders
false M Heavyweight          2002-07-27 W DQ  John Ruiz vs Kirk Johnson
true  M Heavyweight          2002-08-17 W KO  David Tua vs Michael Moorer
true  M Welterweight         2002-10-12 W UD  Antonio Margarito vs Danny Perez
true  M Heavyweight          2002-12-07 W TKO Wladimir Klitschko vs Jameel McCline
annual ratings year 2002
false M Welterweight         2003-01-25 L TKO Vernon Forrest vs Ricardo Mayorga
false M Heavyweight          2003-02-22 W KO  Mike Tyson vs Clifford Etienne
true  M Heavyweight          2003-03-01 W UD  Roy Jones Jr vs John Ruiz
true  M Heavyweight          2003-03-15 W TKO Kirk Johnson vs Lou Savarese
false M Heavyweight          2003-06-07 W TKO Dominick Guinn vs Michael Grant
true  M Heavyweight          2003-06-21 W TKO Lennox Lewis vs Vitali Klitschko
true  M Welterweight         2003-07-12 W MD  Ricardo Mayorga vs Vernon Forrest
true  M Heavyweight          2003-09-20 W UD  Chris Byrd vs Fres Oquendo
true  M Heavyweight          2003-09-26 W UD  Juan Carlos Gomez vs Sinan Samil Sam
true  M Heavyweight          2003-09-26 W UD  Dominick Guinn vs Duncan Dokiwari
true  M Heavyweight          2003-09-26 W KO  Joe Mesi vs DaVarryl Williamson
true  M Heavyweight          2003-10-03 W TKO Jameel McCline vs Cedric Boswell
true  M Heavyweight          2003-12-06 W MD  Joe Mesi vs Monte Barrett
false M Heavyweight          2003-12-06 W TKO Vitali Klitschko vs Kirk Johnson
false M Welterweight         2003-12-13 W MD  Cory Spinks vs Ricardo Mayorga
true  M Middleweight         2003-12-13 W UD  Bernard Hopkins vs William Joppy
annual ratings year 2003
true  M Heavyweight          2004-03-13 W UD  Joe Mesi vs Vassiliy Jirov
false M Middleweight         2004-03-14 W MD  Keith Holmes vs Kuvanych Toygonbayev
false M Heavyweight          2004-03-27 W SD  Monte Barrett vs Dominick Guinn
false M Welterweight         2004-04-10 W UD  Cory Spinks vs Zab Judah
false M Heavyweight          2004-04-10 W TKO Lamon Brewster vs Wladimir Klitschko
true  M Heavyweight          2004-04-17 W MD  DaVarryl Williamson vs Eliecer Castillo
true  M Heavyweight          2004-04-17 W TKO John Ruiz vs Fres Oquendo
true  M Heavyweight          2004-04-17 W UD  Nikolay Valuev vs Marcelo Fabian Dominguez
true  M Heavyweight          2004-04-24 W TKO Vitali Klitschko vs Corrie Sanders
true  M Middleweight         2004-06-05 W UD  Bernard Hopkins vs Robert Allen
false M Heavyweight          2004-07-30 W KO  Danny Williams vs Mike Tyson
true  M Middleweight         2004-09-18 W KO  Bernard Hopkins vs Oscar De La Hoya
true  M Middleweight         2004-10-02 W TKO Felix Trinidad vs Ricardo Mayorga
true  M Heavyweight          2004-11-13 W SD  Chris Byrd vs Jameel McCline
true  M Heavyweight          2004-11-13 W UD  John Ruiz vs Andrew Golota
true  M Heavyweight          2004-11-20 W DQ  Nikolay Valuev vs Gerald Nobles
true  M Heavyweight          2004-12-04 W KO  Samuel Peter vs Jeremy Williams
true  M Heavyweight          2004-12-11 W TKO Vitali Klitschko vs Danny Williams
annual ratings year 2004
true  M Heavyweight          2005-02-05 W TKO Monte Barrett vs Owen Beck
false M Welterweight         2005-02-05 W TKO Zab Judah vs Cory Spinks
true  M Welterweight         2005-02-18 W TKO Antonio Margarito vs Sebastian Andres Lujan
true  M Middleweight         2005-02-19 W UD  Bernard Hopkins vs Howard Eastman
false M Middleweight         2005-04-15 W TKO Kingsley Ikeke vs Antwun Echols
true  M Welterweight         2005-04-23 W TKO Antonio Margarito vs Kermit Cintron
true  M Heavyweight          2005-04-23 W UD  Calvin Brock vs Jameel McCline
true  M Middleweight         2005-05-14 W UD  Ronald Wright vs Felix Trinidad
true  M Heavyweight          2005-07-02 W KO  Samuel Peter vs Taurus Sykes
true  M Middleweight         2005-07-16 W UD  Arthur Abraham vs Howard Eastman
false M Middleweight         2005-07-16 L SD  Bernard Hopkins vs Jermain Taylor
false M Heavyweight          2005-08-13 W UD  Hasim Rahman vs Monte Barrett
false M Heavyweight          2005-09-24 W UD  Wladimir Klitschko vs Samuel Peter
false M Heavyweight          2005-09-28 W TKO Lamon Brewster vs Luan Krasniqi
true  M Heavyweight          2005-10-01 W UD  Chris Byrd vs DaVarryl Williamson
false M Heavyweight          2005-11-12 L UD  Sinan Samil Sam vs Oleg Maskaev
true  M Welterweight         2005-11-19 W TKO Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Sharmba Mitchell
false M Middleweight         2005-12-03 W UD  Jermain Taylor vs Bernard Hopkins
true  M Middleweight         2005-12-10 W UD  Ronald Wright vs Sam Soliman
true  M Middleweight         2005-12-10 W KO  Arthur Abraham vs Kingsley Ikeke
true  M Heavyweight          2005-12-15 W TKO Sultan Ibragimov vs Lance Whitaker
true  M Heavyweight          2005-12-17 W MD  Nikolay Valuev vs John Ruiz
annual ratings year 2005
true  M Welterweight         2006-01-07 L UD  Zab Judah vs Carlos Manuel Baldomir
false M Heavyweight          2006-02-25 L SD  Matt Skelton vs Danny Williams
false M Heavyweight          2006-03-11 W MD  Ruslan Chagaev vs Vladimir Virchis
true  M Welterweight         2006-04-08 W UD  Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Zab Judah
false M Heavyweight          2006-04-22 L TKO Chris Byrd vs Wladimir Klitschko
true  M Welterweight         2006-05-27 W TKO Paul Williams vs Walter Dario Matthysse
true  M Welterweight         2006-06-24 W UD  Carlos Quintana vs Joel Julio
true  M Heavyweight          2006-06-24 W UD  Calvin Brock vs Timor Ibragimov
false M Heavyweight          2006-07-08 L UD  Danny Williams vs Matt Skelton
true  M Welterweight         2006-07-22 W TKO Carlos Manuel Baldomir vs Arturo Gatti
bouts evaluated
last_bout 2006-08-03
75_75 :      114; correct:       74; percent:   64.912
75_50 :        2; correct:        2; percent:  100.000
summary_established   :      116; correct:       76; percent:   65.517
not_established       :   988102; correct:   725542; percent:   73.428
summary_wl            :   988218; correct:   725618; percent:   73.427
no_win_loss           :    90283
Ratings finished Tue Aug 15 17:40:09 2006

Posted: **15 Aug 2006, 13:36**

I wonder if that 65% can be raised by raising the R_DIFF value a bit, as I have theorized. You might also want to start looking at the rest of the weight classes to broaden the statistics. Powell/Ouma, for instance, was in the jr middleweight division.

BoxRec

Ratings - please read before commenting - Archived