BoxRec

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 14:57 Thing I wonder, with so little am experience and one-way traffic as a pro, is if Yarde's ever experienced being hurt before and how he might react to that.

That's the burning question, unless he manages to blow Kovalev away early, which seems unlikely, he's going to get hit harder than ever before, and most likely more often than ever before.

Kathy Duva said they all laughed when Cleverlys camp said yes to the fight, what's she reckon on this one?

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 14:53

Riddick Blowe wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 09:51

Boxing doesn’t work like guy A being vastly experienced beats guy B every single time because look at how inexperienced guy B is, that’s what I was saying.

It’s like some people actually forget the skill set and style matchup and get blinded by experience levels.

Managers and promoters do what they do for a few reasons, but just because they elongate a fighter’s career and tread water doesn’t mean their fighters can’t beat the divisional champ sooner. There might be more money to be made with other fights, there might be politics in the way, it’s not always the case that the fabled ‘gradual improvements’ are practicable. And so many divisions are so shallow anyway that in many cases the sort of ‘learning fights’ that are supposed to get a guy seasoned for the top don’t have much purpose anyway.

Plus how much is enough preparation for Yarde? Maybe folks think if he went through foregone conclusions against the likes of Blake Caparello or Karo Murat that would prepare him in some way just because these guys are nominally top 25. By some folks’ logic the thought of Lomachenko beating Russell when they fought would be outlandish.

If he’s good enough, he’s ready. We’ll see if he is.

Experience is important, but like you say it's just one factor. Some guys are good enough that they can take those big jumps up and still win, even if perhaps they would've been even better with more experience. Tank Davis did it too vs Pedraza, Kovalev did it himself with Campillo. Obviously Yarde has a tougher opponent here, but even without great opposition he's very much in this.

Exactly, no world exists where fighters take perfect incremental steps up to eventually challenge for a title, sure some guys go in with more experience than Yarde has but big stepups in class happen and it's not outrageous to make predictions on skills when a guy is clearly talented and good. Obviously at the same time it doesn't mean there aren't question marks, but in the other thread you've got people saying Yarde is going to be crushed purely based upon other fighters he shared a ring with and not how he might fare himself, it's nuts.

I tell you what, if anyone is ever unsure of what's going on with boxrec polls (such as the other one skewed heavily to Kovalev) they'd do well to check the odds the books have on the fight. Yarde is a 7/4 dog by most books. While Boxrec has it almost 80% in favour of Kovalev.

I'm also reminded of the Gorman/Dubois poll which as I remember had a fairly routine win for Dubois split down the middle on Boxrec, what was the bookie's choice? Something like 1/3 Dubois.

Riddick Blowe wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 09:51

Deserter wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 07:46
But boxing does work like that. Pointing to the exceptions to the rule does not change that. Managers select routes to the title very carefully for that exact reason and rarely take leaps of faith like we're seeing with Yarde and Kov.
There are one of two scenarios at play here I suspect (or a combination of the two):

1) There is 'insider knowledge' floating around about Kov in terms of his drinking, training, being on the slide etc, that have given the Yarde camp belief he is there for the taking in a way that most of us aren't aware of.

2) Yarde himself has a vulnerability (such as chin and/or stamina) that could be exposed if he goes through the conventional route of fighting world-level gatekeepers, so better to gamble big and earn better money in the hope that his KO power allows him to end the fight before he's exposed himself.

I just find it really, really hard to envisage why there's been such a match-making leap otherwise.

Boxing doesn’t work like guy A being vastly experienced beats guy B every single time because look at how inexperienced guy B is, that’s what I was saying.

It’s like some people actually forget the skill set and style matchup and get blinded by experience levels.

Managers and promoters do what they do for a few reasons, but just because they elongate a fighter’s career and tread water doesn’t mean their fighters can’t beat the divisional champ sooner. There might be more money to be made with other fights, there might be politics in the way, it’s not always the case that the fabled ‘gradual improvements’ are practicable. And so many divisions are so shallow anyway that in many cases the sort of ‘learning fights’ that are supposed to get a guy seasoned for the top don’t have much purpose anyway.

Plus how much is enough preparation for Yarde? Maybe folks think if he went through foregone conclusions against the likes of Blake Caparello or Karo Murat that would prepare him in some way just because these guys are nominally top 25. By some folks’ logic the thought of Lomachenko beating Russell when they fought would be outlandish.

If he’s good enough, he’s ready. We’ll see if he is.

Of course it doesn't work like that every single time, but it's a game of probability i.e. guy A is more likely to beat guy B if they have been prepared the right way...I've yet to see anyone in the trade claim there isn't an art to match-making after all.
And while I completely accept the points about skill set and style, that can be hard to judge accurately when you haven't got the gauge of gradual progression - we all know of countless boxers who look a million dollars at a certain level and then can't replicate anything like that when they step up; Josh Kelly is a recent example that springs to mind. Hence I think it's a perfectly reasonable point to suggest that Yarde could be better placed to win if he'd faced a bit of adversity and been challenged a bit more rather than plunging straight in.
I therefore simply have to politely disagree regarding the old 'if he's good enough, he's ready' - follow that logic and you throw fighters in at any point in their career rather than accepting they can improve their chances of success if given the right trajectory in terms of match-making. The reality is that as touched on earlier, there are far more examples of fighters failing through being thrown in early than there are those who managed to make the type of leap that Yarde is attempting.
Interesting that you use Loma as an example as well, as ironically for me he's the perfect example of the fallacy of "if he's good enough, he's ready" - a couple of hard pro bouts prior to taking on Salido and does anyone here doubt that a loss would actually have turned out to be a win?

Deserter wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 19:29

Riddick Blowe wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 09:51

Boxing doesn’t work like guy A being vastly experienced beats guy B every single time because look at how inexperienced guy B is, that’s what I was saying.

It’s like some people actually forget the skill set and style matchup and get blinded by experience levels.

Managers and promoters do what they do for a few reasons, but just because they elongate a fighter’s career and tread water doesn’t mean their fighters can’t beat the divisional champ sooner. There might be more money to be made with other fights, there might be politics in the way, it’s not always the case that the fabled ‘gradual improvements’ are practicable. And so many divisions are so shallow anyway that in many cases the sort of ‘learning fights’ that are supposed to get a guy seasoned for the top don’t have much purpose anyway.

Plus how much is enough preparation for Yarde? Maybe folks think if he went through foregone conclusions against the likes of Blake Caparello or Karo Murat that would prepare him in some way just because these guys are nominally top 25. By some folks’ logic the thought of Lomachenko beating Russell when they fought would be outlandish.

If he’s good enough, he’s ready. We’ll see if he is.

Of course it doesn't work like that every single time, but it's a game of probability i.e. guy A is more likely to beat guy B if they have been prepared the right way...I've yet to see anyone in the trade claim there isn't an art to match-making after all.
And while I completely accept the points about skill set and style, that can be hard to judge accurately when you haven't got the gauge of gradual progression - we all know of countless boxers who look a million dollars at a certain level and then can't replicate anything like that when they step up; Josh Kelly is a recent example that springs to mind. Hence I think it's a perfectly reasonable point to suggest that Yarde could be better placed to win if he'd faced a bit of adversity and been challenged a bit more rather than plunging straight in.
I therefore simply have to politely disagree regarding the old 'if he's good enough, he's ready' - follow that logic and you throw fighters in at any point in their career rather than accepting they can improve their chances of success if given the right trajectory in terms of match-making. The reality is that as touched on earlier, there are far more examples of fighters failing through being thrown in early than there are those who managed to make the type of leap that Yarde is attempting.
Interesting that you use Loma as an example as well, as ironically for me he's the perfect example of the fallacy of "if he's good enough, he's ready" - a couple of hard pro bouts prior to taking on Salido and does anyone here doubt that a loss would actually have turned out to be a win?

I’m not saying guys can’t improve, I just feel like so many people have written off Yarde on the basis of ‘he’s not ready yet’ which I really don’t believe is the guiding factor of this fight.

There are going to be other matchups that are more governed by how polished someone is now compared to how he could be in 3-4 years, but I just don’t see this as being one of them. I look at yarde and I see the sort of reflexes, power, accuracy, and speed that Haye took into the Mormeck fight in 2007.

As for the question marks, no amount of experience is going to save him against Kovalev if it turns out he doesn’t have a chin. Not having been really hurt so far may admittedly count against him as there are survival skills that he hasn’t had a chance to hone yet.

I just can’t wait to see the fight, I watched Kovalev’s rematch with Alvarez again last night and he looked excellent, but I do wonder about his punch resistance at this point, I think Yarde is capable of putting a sustained attack on him and it’s fascinating to see how he’ll stand up to it - as well as vice versa of course.

I remember Brendan Ingle willing to throw Naz in with anyone very early. Billy Hardy’s trainer said he would go in with anyone a long time ago. If you’re good enough, you’re good enough.
I remember people laughing at Andre Ward! An American guy on here asked if we had no idea how good he was!

Riddick Blowe wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 02:51

Deserter wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 19:29
Of course it doesn't work like that every single time, but it's a game of probability i.e. guy A is more likely to beat guy B if they have been prepared the right way...I've yet to see anyone in the trade claim there isn't an art to match-making after all.
And while I completely accept the points about skill set and style, that can be hard to judge accurately when you haven't got the gauge of gradual progression - we all know of countless boxers who look a million dollars at a certain level and then can't replicate anything like that when they step up; Josh Kelly is a recent example that springs to mind. Hence I think it's a perfectly reasonable point to suggest that Yarde could be better placed to win if he'd faced a bit of adversity and been challenged a bit more rather than plunging straight in.
I therefore simply have to politely disagree regarding the old 'if he's good enough, he's ready' - follow that logic and you throw fighters in at any point in their career rather than accepting they can improve their chances of success if given the right trajectory in terms of match-making. The reality is that as touched on earlier, there are far more examples of fighters failing through being thrown in early than there are those who managed to make the type of leap that Yarde is attempting.
Interesting that you use Loma as an example as well, as ironically for me he's the perfect example of the fallacy of "if he's good enough, he's ready" - a couple of hard pro bouts prior to taking on Salido and does anyone here doubt that a loss would actually have turned out to be a win?

I’m not saying guys can’t improve, I just feel like so many people have written off Yarde on the basis of ‘he’s not ready yet’ which I really don’t believe is the guiding factor of this fight.

There are going to be other matchups that are more governed by how polished someone is now compared to how he could be in 3-4 years, but I just don’t see this as being one of them. I look at yarde and I see the sort of reflexes, power, accuracy, and speed that Haye took into the Mormeck fight in 2007.

As for the question marks, no amount of experience is going to save him against Kovalev if it turns out he doesn’t have a chin. Not having been really hurt so far may admittedly count against him as there are survival skills that he hasn’t had a chance to hone yet.

I just can’t wait to see the fight, I watched Kovalev’s rematch with Alvarez again last night and he looked excellent, but I do wonder about his punch resistance at this point, I think Yarde is capable of putting a sustained attack on him and it’s fascinating to see how he’ll stand up to it - as well as vice versa of course.

Fair points fella and get where you're coming from.

mickey1975 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 03:56 I remember Brendan Ingle willing to throw Naz in with anyone very early. Billy Hardy’s trainer said he would go in with anyone a long time ago. If you’re good enough, you’re good enough.
I remember people laughing at Andre Ward! An American guy on here asked if we had no idea how good he was!

So answer my question about Loma then Mickey...

Deserter wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 04:24

Riddick Blowe wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 02:51

I’m not saying guys can’t improve, I just feel like so many people have written off Yarde on the basis of ‘he’s not ready yet’ which I really don’t believe is the guiding factor of this fight.

There are going to be other matchups that are more governed by how polished someone is now compared to how he could be in 3-4 years, but I just don’t see this as being one of them. I look at yarde and I see the sort of reflexes, power, accuracy, and speed that Haye took into the Mormeck fight in 2007.

As for the question marks, no amount of experience is going to save him against Kovalev if it turns out he doesn’t have a chin. Not having been really hurt so far may admittedly count against him as there are survival skills that he hasn’t had a chance to hone yet.

I just can’t wait to see the fight, I watched Kovalev’s rematch with Alvarez again last night and he looked excellent, but I do wonder about his punch resistance at this point, I think Yarde is capable of putting a sustained attack on him and it’s fascinating to see how he’ll stand up to it - as well as vice versa of course.

Fair points fella and get where you're coming from.

As for the Loma fight, I haven’t seen it for a while but as I recall he was punched in the balls a fair amount in that one, but overall I get your point. The Loma example was a bit extreme as he’s obviously a freak in that he was that good anyway to be able to be stepped up right away.

But yeah maybe if he’d had a couple more tough distance fights he could have swung a few rounds here and there.

Deserter wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 04:27

mickey1975 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 03:56 I remember Brendan Ingle willing to throw Naz in with anyone very early. Billy Hardy’s trainer said he would go in with anyone a long time ago. If you’re good enough, you’re good enough.
I remember people laughing at Andre Ward! An American guy on here asked if we had no idea how good he was!

So answer my question about Loma then Mickey...

I thought he got old manned and robbed!

My bet is Kovalyov KO 4-6. would be surprised to see Yarde making it past 8. IMO he is the type of fighter that looks very impressive vs weak opposition but a no-hoper against the top.

Watched him against Dariusz Sęk, he didn't looked particulary good, at least not the top level skill wise. I dont think its good idea for him to step up that far already. IMO the lacks in experience are evident.

Wouldnt be also surprised if he turns out to be Kudryashov type of fighter but his Chin is indeed a mystery for now, we ll see.

dagilechia wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 06:22 My bet is Kovalyov KO 4-6. would be surprised to see Yarde making it past 8. IMO he is the type of fighter that looks very impressive vs weak opposition but a no-hoper against the top.

Watched him against Dariusz Sęk, he didn't looked particulary good, at least not the top level skill wise. I dont think its good idea for him to step up that far already. IMO the lacks in experience are evident.

Wouldnt be also surprised if he turns out to be Kudryashov type of fighter but his Chin is indeed a mystery for now, we ll see.

I rate Yarde, but I think it's true that an offensive fighter like him tends to be the type most flattered vs weak opposition. Because when everyone can land on the opponent, the offensive guy has his strengths come out more.

That said, even vs weaker opposition I think you can see differences in quality, and Yarde has impressed me in ways most guys don't vs similar opposition. Despite the muscle he's very relaxed with his upper body movement and punches, and he really varies the shots nicely both in type , range, and to the body and head.

Very intriguing fight, because we really have no idea how strong Yarde is when it comes to taking stuff back and dealing with that.

jamesmcdonnell wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 15:03

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 14:57 Thing I wonder, with so little am experience and one-way traffic as a pro, is if Yarde's ever experienced being hurt before and how he might react to that.

That's the burning question, unless he manages to blow Kovalev away early, which seems unlikely, he's going to get hit harder than ever before, and most likely more often than ever before.

Cleverley had done much more than Yarde has done

That's true but Clev was a bit of a slapper without much pop and just didn't have the tools to exploit Kov's vulnerbailities. Although untested at high levels I'd say Yarde clearly is more of an offensive threat to Kov than Clev was.

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 12:08

dagilechia wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 06:22 My bet is Kovalyov KO 4-6. would be surprised to see Yarde making it past 8. IMO he is the type of fighter that looks very impressive vs weak opposition but a no-hoper against the top.

Watched him against Dariusz Sęk, he didn't looked particulary good, at least not the top level skill wise. I dont think its good idea for him to step up that far already. IMO the lacks in experience are evident.

Wouldnt be also surprised if he turns out to be Kudryashov type of fighter but his Chin is indeed a mystery for now, we ll see.

I rate Yarde, but I think it's true that an offensive fighter like him tends to be the type most flattered vs weak opposition. Because when everyone can land on the opponent, the offensive guy has his strengths come out more.

That said, even vs weaker opposition I think you can see differences in quality, and Yarde has impressed me in ways most guys don't vs similar opposition. Despite the muscle he's very relaxed with his upper body movement and punches, and he really varies the shots nicely both in type , range, and to the body and head.

Very intriguing fight, because we really have no idea how strong Yarde is when it comes to taking stuff back and dealing with that.

If Yarde does pull off an upset, I'm already bored of the hopeless title challengers he will be defending against and the endless talk about him taking unification fights with Beterbiev, Bivol etc or Britsh rival Bhuatsi.

It will be straight back to "learning on the job" and "hardly any amateur experience" !

That's Fwank W@rren's blue print for his WBO titles.

This really is Yarde diving in at the deep end. I liken it to when David Price went from Matt Skelton to Tony Thompson in one misguided step. It's like pulling out of inside lane on a four lane motorway all the way across to the fast lane without indicating or checking your mirrors. Unless Kovalev is shot, Yarde takes a beating.

I think Yarde has a moment or two in the first two rounds, a bit like Herbie Hide against Bowe, before falling completely to pieces. Then next fight against a proper world level fighter Kov then loses horribly.

Yarde is going to get a pasting

Shhhh wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 18:36 I looked at some vids an I gotta say; unless Kovalev has given up on his career or unless Yarde’s chin is amazing he’ll get kod

Or Kov's chin dosent hold up.
Others have expressed concern about Kov's punch resistance, I'm in that boat too. Yarde can bang and Kov's defence is fallable. That's why I give Yarde a puncher's chance here.

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 12:08

dagilechia wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 06:22 My bet is Kovalyov KO 4-6. would be surprised to see Yarde making it past 8. IMO he is the type of fighter that looks very impressive vs weak opposition but a no-hoper against the top.

Watched him against Dariusz Sęk, he didn't looked particulary good, at least not the top level skill wise. I dont think its good idea for him to step up that far already. IMO the lacks in experience are evident.

Wouldnt be also surprised if he turns out to be Kudryashov type of fighter but his Chin is indeed a mystery for now, we ll see.

I rate Yarde, but I think it's true that an offensive fighter like him tends to be the type most flattered vs weak opposition. Because when everyone can land on the opponent, the offensive guy has his strengths come out more.

That said, even vs weaker opposition I think you can see differences in quality, and Yarde has impressed me in ways most guys don't vs similar opposition. Despite the muscle he's very relaxed with his upper body movement and punches, and he really varies the shots nicely both in type , range, and to the body and head.

Very intriguing fight, because we really have no idea how strong Yarde is when it comes to taking stuff back and dealing with that.

I wish more people looked at the fight like this.

Rather than say ‘we don’t know how yarde will react because he hasn’t been hit yet’ a lot of people are effectively saying ‘Yarde hasn’t been hit yet so he’s going to get knocked out!’ Pure logical fallacy.

By the way mate, what was your screen name before ‘Margaret thatcher’? Or are you a relatively new poster ?

As for what we know, mirroring what’s mentioned above I was watching Yarde in the fight before last, and I was struck by how fluid and relaxed he was, how agile, powerful and accurate .

Someone before said he doesn’t have a jab, but I saw evidence of a very good jab that he needs to employ more, especially against a great jabber himself in Kovalev.

He also has great variety, he has a scary left hook and a crunching uppercut in his repertoire as well as a big right hand.

People love to make this point about fighters ‘looking great against limited opposition before being found out when they step up’ but as MT says above you can sometimes get a pretty good feel for how some guys look against a given level compared to others, eg how many guys who haven’t been stopped before just can’t deal with the power or speed (a fair few in the case of Yarde)

It’s funny, people seemingly refusing to discuss Yarde’s skill set and instead write him off based on a whole load of other guys he fought reminds me of the preamble to the kovalev /cleverly fight, where many folks were doing the tried and trusted thing of casting kovalev as the bully slugger and cleverly as the boxer who would tame him. At that point I remember clearly the only poster other than me who was actually trying to dissect what Kovalev was all about (as in, just how skilful he was) was Gomez, who made comparisons about how Kovalev took apart the tough nut Campillo in a way no one else had. Yarde hasn’t beaten a guy quite as good as Campillo (in that the Spaniard was robbed prior against the highly rated Cloud) but does anyone doubt he would based on what Yarde has shown so far?

The problem for Yarde of course is that Kovalev, in my opinion at least (or at least based on his last performance) is still very, very good, which Cleverly never was.

Shhhh wrote: ↑17 Aug 2019, 14:14 I just watched Yarde agisnt Sek Which is his best fight.
And I just can’t see Kov struggling. Too early Yarde too raw

How is he raw?

Shhhh wrote: ↑17 Aug 2019, 15:55

Riddick Blowe wrote: ↑17 Aug 2019, 15:11

How is he raw?

He leaves himself very open and is not difficult to hit

Maybe that has to do with level of competition. Spence used to take a lot more shots than he has at high level.

Shhhh wrote: ↑17 Aug 2019, 15:55

Riddick Blowe wrote: ↑17 Aug 2019, 15:11

How is he raw?

He leaves himself very open and is not difficult to hit

x2

I've watched the Sęk fight too and yeah Yarde is too open, raw and lacks in his skillset and experience are evident, visible. I don't say he's bad, Just imo evidently not the top 5 or even top 10 skill wise, he has some pop in his punches but for now i cant see him being a threat for Kovalyov as he is clearly limited. He has top potential maybe but for now i am in the "its too early for such a step up" camp. Kovalyov is an offensive monster, much better technically, much better jab, his power is at worst comparable to Yarde's, the Russian is not great in defensive aspects but imo Yarde is even easier to hit.

Shhhh wrote: ↑17 Aug 2019, 16:22

dagilechia wrote: ↑17 Aug 2019, 16:17
x2

I've watched the Sęk fight too and yeah Yarde is too open, raw and lacks in his skillset and experience are evident, visible. I don't say he's bad, Just imo evidently not the top 5 or even top 10 skill wise, he has some pop in his punches but for now i cant see him being a threat for Kovalyov as he is clearly limited. He has top potential maybe but for now i am in the "its too early for such a step up" camp.

Yeh Yarde has talent but wiv only 12 amateur and 18 pro is too far behind in experience IMO

Btw, I completely agree that he has been entirely too open. If he gets in with Kov like that, his only hope is to land large first.