BoxRec

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 14:28**

Kovalev is not shot, more his limitations at elite level are now laid bare. He is still a very dangerous LHW, and no easy nights work for anyone, especially a career middleweight.

However, we are hearing Canelo is mad keen to get the fight, that should make anyone wonder what it is he feels he can see in Kov that he can exploit. He will have the speed advantage for sure, we know he can fight at a pace for 12 rounds, has a fantastic output and variety of punches with great bodywork, and most important here, he has an excellent chin. Have we ever seen Canelo hurt?

I will analyse the fight in more detail if it gets announed. For now, i will go with Canelo KO rounds somehwere between 9 - 11.

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 14:31**

Haven't seen Canelo take a shot from a good punching LHW though. Chavez Jr walked through everyone's shots at 160, including Canelo's at a CW, yet was dropped and stopped for the first time in his career when he faced a respectable LHW. Of course Chavez gets hit more than Canelo, but he clearly felt the power difference.

And Canelo isn't really a major puncher even at 160, more like he gradually beats down guys. Liam Smith lasted late, and I wouldn't say Jacobs or Cotto have shown they're especially sturdy but they took the shots fine. Canelo may just PED his size up, but can't help but feel that going up to LHW would put him over his optimal range. He certainly would look like a short ginger hulk!

Another thing, Kov has never ever been outclassed in a boxing match. He even I thought outboxed the great Ward for at least half the rounds they they fought and certainly was doing it when they were on the outside. And he was well up when Alvarez stopped him then arguably pitched a 12-0 in the rematch. He is a very good boxer from the outside and has of course power himself.

Very interesting, I see fans leaning Canelo and the bookies at least have it like it's a mismatch, maybe it will be and Canelo's struck at the perfect time.

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 15:13**

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑27 Aug 2019, 14:31 and the bookies at least have it like it's a mismatch

Just checked the odds and they are surprising to say the least. Alvarez a 1/8 on favourite.

That is quite a statement the bookies are making.

You can get much better oddson Wilder to beat Ortiz, or Spence to beat Porter, Golovkin to beat Derevchenko, you can even get much better odds on Pacquiao to beat Khan if they ever fight. The bookies are giving both Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders a much better chance of beating Alvarez than they are Kovalev.

Quite strange, you have to wonder what they are seeing that makes them put Alvarez a 1/8 favourite.

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 15:21**

Ya, I mean I get that Kov may be past his best and I can see what the people who go for Canelo to dominate are saying, but was not expecting odds to be that lopsided at all.

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 15:56**

For me the question is how much will team Kovalev allow themselves to be exploited by Team Alvarez.

Please, no, to any weight stipulation that will drain Kovalev & give Alvarez a huge advantage.

If Nutmeg wants the fight he should just move up. He does throw beautiful punches but looks winded after making flashy moves & often has to spend 2/3 of the round recovering. His fancy punches do steal enough rounds, in fights vs Golovkin during which the older man famously outpunched him on both occasions.

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 16:02**

Autobarn wrote: ↑27 Aug 2019, 15:56 For me the question is how much will team Kovalev allow themselves to be exploited by Team Alvarez.

Please, no, to any weight stipulation that will drain Kovalev & give Alvarez a huge advantage.

If Nutmeg wants the fight he should just move up. He does throw beautiful punches but looks winded after making flashy moves & often has to spend 2/3 of the round recovering. His fancy punches do steal enough rounds, in fights vs Golovkin during which the older man famously outpunched him on both occasions.

Cinnamon.

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 16:30**

I’m taking the p iss.

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 16:41**

Autobarn wrote: ↑27 Aug 2019, 16:30 I’m taking the p iss.

Star anise.

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 17:08**

Kov has a very real chance unless there are some weight or rehydration clauses enforced. Remember that gingernut has only beaten Rocky Fielding north of MW.

Posted: **27 Aug 2019, 18:31**

dr_devious wrote: ↑27 Aug 2019, 17:08 Kov has a very real chance unless there are some weight or rehydration clauses enforced. Remember that gingernut has only beaten Rocky Fielding north of MW.

Precisely, hardly a huge accolade

Posted: **28 Aug 2019, 12:59**

i really dont know why canelo is doing this, i think he will get beaten up.
it would be one heck of an achievement, but i dont think canelo should be going above middleweight really.

Posted: **28 Aug 2019, 14:19**

I think El Freckles will outman Kovalev, who seems to unravel when seriously challenged. Going the distance against smaller opponents doesn't obviate the chances of a knockout for Canelo. Toney went the distance with countless middles but took down Holyfield. Dempsey could slay a giant but then go 15 with a light heavy. Fighters have routine fight mood and Big Fight Mood, and the latter makes for more spectacular results.

Posted: **28 Aug 2019, 14:33**

Canelo hasn't stopped any of his biggest opponents though. GGGx2, Cotto, Jacobs, Mayweather, Lara, Trout. He didn't stop Chavez either even though a poor man's Kovalev did. James Toney actually scored some brutal KOs over top opponents and of course his stoppages did decrease moving up.

Was there simply no 'big fight' mood for these?

I see what you mean, but I'm surprised so many think Canelo's just going to easily bash him! Ginger is a stubby bastard and the only guy he fought who was bigger than MW was Rocky Fielding. And Kov is a good boxer with a punch himself

Posted: **28 Aug 2019, 14:50**

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑28 Aug 2019, 14:33 Canelo hasn't stopped any of his biggest opponents though. GGGx2, Cotto, Jacobs, Mayweather, Lara, Trout. He didn't stop Chavez either even though a B level LHW did. James Toney actually scored some brutal KOs over top opponents and of course his stoppages did decrease moving up.

Was there simply no 'big fight' mood for these?

I see what you mean, but I'm surprised so many think Canelo's just going to easily bash him! Ginger is a stubby bastard and the only guy he fought who was bigger than MW was Rocky Fielding. And Kov is a good boxer with a punch himself

Holyfield didn't stop Foreman, Holmes, Bowe etc, so he won't stop Tyson, Toney didn't stop Sosa, Johnson, McCallum, Jones, so there's no way he stops Holyfield etc etc. Those Canelo opponents don't have the pronounced weakness Kovalev has. I don't remember any of them staggering around the ring on the brink of collapse bar Cotto when up against a man swinging knuckledusters at him. Oh I remember Jacobs getting flattened actually but clearly he developed, given his later GGG performance.

Ultimately I expect Canelo to win, wouldn't be surprised if it's by stoppage, wouldn't be surprised if it's yet another points job; will only be surprised if he loses.

Posted: **28 Aug 2019, 14:57**

Holyfield and Toney both scored stoppages against top flight opponents their weights prior to moving up, Canelo never has. You have to go to him fighting absolutely glass chinned smaller opponents for that.What is this big fight mood you talk about with Canelo? Were GGG, Cotto, Lara, Jacobs, Chavez, or his first unifciation (Trout) not big ones for him?

I can see Canelo getting a stoppage, but I do question how much damage he'll be doing and whether there's a tendency to overestimate how easy it will be to hurt Kov. He's not a particularly big puncher even at 160 and he's essentially jumping two divisions, to a division where he will be humorously stumpy and facing a guy who at a minimum has been right in every fight he's had.

And btw, guys like Cotto , Jacobs, and Trout have all been down or hurt plenty. These are not iron men. And Chavez was down and stopped the one time he fought an actual decent LHW.

Posted: **28 Aug 2019, 15:11**

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑28 Aug 2019, 14:57 Holyfield and Toney both scored stoppages against top flight opponents their weights prior to moving up, Canelo never has. You have to go to him fighting absolutely glass chinned smaller opponents for that.What is this big fight mood you talk about with Canelo? Were GGG, Cotto, Lara, Jacobs, Chavez, or his first unifciation (Trout) not big ones for him?

I can see Canelo getting a stoppage, but I do question how much damage he'll be doing. He's not a particularly big puncher even at 160 and he's essentially jumping two divisions, to a division where he will be humorously stumpy and facing a guy who at a minimum has been right in every fight he's had.

And btw, guys like Cotto , Jacobs, and Trout have all been down or hurt plenty. These are not iron men. And Chavez was down and stopped the one time he fought an actual decent LHW.

I have no inclination to bog down my posts in endless qualifiers just to satisfy tedious forum pedants. GGG was the only mega fight there and fighting like that I think Canelo would have KOd plenty. I think he will summon up something special for Kovalev that would be impossible when facing a Trout or Lara. If you want to argue that Toney stopping Michael Nunn or Iran Barkley somehow made a Holyfield stoppage more probable, you knock yourself out.

Posted: **28 Aug 2019, 15:13**

Not bogging it down, just addressing your points bruh. You talk about a big fight mood that has seemingly never translated to stoppages for Canelo, even vs guys who are far from iron. Those other guys you mentioned already showed some serious KO threat vs top opponents, not to mention for a guy like Toney clearly the stoppages were less common anyway after several jumps in weight.

Now of course not stopping guys at one weight doesn't mean you CANT do the same at higher weights, and even vs better opposition at higher weights, but I do think there is good reason to question if Canelo will really just be hurting Kov and beating him up that easy.

If Canelo does do a number, hell let's see ginger beat another LHW champ and then go to cruiser

Posted: **28 Aug 2019, 15:19**

Looking at this poll so far though, if Canelo wins we don't need to trigger another 'Kovalev most overrated fighter' thread

Posted: **28 Aug 2019, 15:30**

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑28 Aug 2019, 15:19 Looking at this poll so far though, if Canelo wins we don't need to trigger another 'Kovalev most overrated fighter' thread

Very funny! I bet it won't stop some here.

Posted: **29 Aug 2019, 02:59**

overhand_right wrote: ↑28 Aug 2019, 14:19 I think El Freckles will outman Kovalev, who seems to unravel when seriously challenged. Going the distance against smaller opponents doesn't obviate the chances of a knockout for Canelo. Toney went the distance with countless middles but took down Holyfield. Dempsey could slay a giant but then go 15 with a light heavy. Fighters have routine fight mood and Big Fight Mood, and the latter makes for more spectacular results.

Who knows. It’s a strange matchup. I can envision him easily beating the bigger and older man to the punch - for a while, surprising and startling him.

But I do see Alvarez continually struggling to maintain. He pulls off beautiful moves but is shortly afterward fighting to suck in air and stalling until the round is over. He’s also very short and stumpy to be fighting above middleweight. I think he’ll be required to do a lot of manoeuvring and a lot of combination punching. Think he will be very tired by round four or five and unless he’s done serious damage to the light heavyweight champ will have a rough time during th middle sessions.

Kovalev is definitely near the end but in the past two fights has shown the character that has been doubted. And he has some solid skills.

I don’t think Alvarez conserves energy the way James Toney could. Toney was more relaxed in the ring. If anything Alvarez reminds me of the Sugar Ray Leonard who came out of retirement to face Hagler, Hearns 2, Lalonde. Flashy, fighting in spectacular cameos of punches, and - above all - reliant on handicapping to escape with victory.

If there’s a catchweigh clause, Nutmeg wins beyond doubt. But, hoping they fight near 175 and put on an epic with the best man winning.

Posted: **29 Aug 2019, 05:46**

Autobarn wrote: ↑29 Aug 2019, 02:59
overhand_right wrote: ↑28 Aug 2019, 14:19 I think El Freckles will outman Kovalev, who seems to unravel when seriously challenged. Going the distance against smaller opponents doesn't obviate the chances of a knockout for Canelo. Toney went the distance with countless middles but took down Holyfield. Dempsey could slay a giant but then go 15 with a light heavy. Fighters have routine fight mood and Big Fight Mood, and the latter makes for more spectacular results.
Who knows. It’s a strange matchup. I can envision him easily beating the bigger and older man to the punch - for a while, surprising and startling him.

But I do see Alvarez continually struggling to maintain. He pulls off beautiful moves but is shortly afterward fighting to suck in air and stalling until the round is over. He’s also very short and stumpy to be fighting above middleweight. I think he’ll be required to do a lot of manoeuvring and a lot of combination punching. Think he will be very tired by round four or five and unless he’s done serious damage to the light heavyweight champ will have a rough time during th middle sessions.

Kovalev is definitely near the end but in the past two fights has shown the character that has been doubted. And he has some solid skills.

I don’t think Alvarez conserves energy the way James Toney could. Toney was more relaxed in the ring. If anything Alvarez reminds me of the Sugar Ray Leonard who came out of retirement to face Hagler, Hearns 2, Lalonde. Flashy, fighting in spectacular cameos of punches, and - above all - reliant on handicapping to escape with victory.

If there’s a catchweigh clause, Nutmeg wins beyond doubt. But, hoping they fight near 175 and put on an epic with the best man winning.

Yep, good analysis, it's not a fight I dare bet on.

Posted: **30 Aug 2019, 15:04**

Canelo couldn't beat GGG and i guess he will lose to Kovalyov too... of course Sergey is more vulnerable than GGG but he is as much skilled and hits even harder than him, also he is much bigger, i think that Kovalyov still has enough gas in the tank to win this fight.

Posted: **30 Aug 2019, 16:48**

If it goes the distance, and Kovalev won every round, they would still give it to Alvarez

Posted: **31 Aug 2019, 02:57**

overhand_right wrote: ↑29 Aug 2019, 05:46
Autobarn wrote: ↑29 Aug 2019, 02:59
Who knows. It’s a strange matchup. I can envision him easily beating the bigger and older man to the punch - for a while, surprising and startling him.

But I do see Alvarez continually struggling to maintain. He pulls off beautiful moves but is shortly afterward fighting to suck in air and stalling until the round is over. He’s also very short and stumpy to be fighting above middleweight. I think he’ll be required to do a lot of manoeuvring and a lot of combination punching. Think he will be very tired by round four or five and unless he’s done serious damage to the light heavyweight champ will have a rough time during th middle sessions.

Kovalev is definitely near the end but in the past two fights has shown the character that has been doubted. And he has some solid skills.

I don’t think Alvarez conserves energy the way James Toney could. Toney was more relaxed in the ring. If anything Alvarez reminds me of the Sugar Ray Leonard who came out of retirement to face Hagler, Hearns 2, Lalonde. Flashy, fighting in spectacular cameos of punches, and - above all - reliant on handicapping to escape with victory.

If there’s a catchweigh clause, Nutmeg wins beyond doubt. But, hoping they fight near 175 and put on an epic with the best man winning.
Yep, good analysis, it's not a fight I dare bet on.

If the odds are as wide as have been suggested in this thread I’ll throw a few quid on Kovalev

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