BoxRec

I've got Bute at 11/4.

Jmashyaka wrote:

TheLeprechaun wrote:

Jmashyaka wrote: Good underdog to take I'll be taking him too, Alvarez should of lost against Chilemba and he was rocked against Prieto. There will be no vada testing so Bute will probably be on the sauce again and I think this fight is being set up for a big money Canadian showdown between Bute and Stevenson whose belt this fight is an eliminator for.

I'm just waiting for Bute points market to open up.

You can be sure that you won't be getting a great price with posts like this on forums. If you think the odds compilers don't read threads like this you're badly mistaken trust me

I doubt they do, I think the bookies follow the money and everything I said is online so they would have done their own research , with that being said if Bute is @3.75 on pp that means a points must be higher maybe 4.5.

I know they do for sure mate.

TheLeprechaun wrote:

Jmashyaka wrote:

TheLeprechaun wrote:

You can be sure that you won't be getting a great price with posts like this on forums. If you think the odds compilers don't read threads like this you're badly mistaken trust me

I doubt they do, I think the bookies follow the money and everything I said is online so they would have done their own research , with that being said if Bute is @3.75 on pp that means a points must be higher maybe 4.5.

I know they do for sure mate.

Fair enough I can't definitively say your wrong. I still think it's good to share ideas even if the bookies do get a whiff of them.

Finished looking at the tapes, UK accumulator for the weekend:
Harris vs Essomba to go the distance
Donovan points win vs Castillo
Keeler to beat Taylor

3 fold at 19/4

A few interesting lines to consider:
Murphy on points @ 11/4- Murphy only has two ko's on his record so if hes opponent is tough enough he may go the distance.
Bunnett on points @ 5/6- Its only 8 rounds and Bunnett is not the biggest puncher, his opponent has never been knocked out and has fought as high as lightweight before.
Mcdonnell to win @ 11/4- If it goes to the scorecards he may get a robbery decision like his brother did against Solis a couple months ago.

Got my US picks coming soon.

Hope anyone who was on Thistlecrack got it on the NRNB schemes that the bookies sometimes offer. If anyone did it with bet365, they went NRNB on 16th Jan 14:02. Anything before is a loss, anything after is returned

After seeing the size difference and weight stipulation does anyone think JC Chavez Jnr may be worth a small bet at 6.5? Julio looks 4 weights above Canelo and also knows how to manipulate weight advantage?

I put a tenner on

freddydoesdallas wrote:Hope anyone who was on Thistlecrack got it on the NRNB schemes that the bookies sometimes offer. If anyone did it with bet365, they went NRNB on 16th Jan 14:02. Anything before is a loss, anything after is returned

Ouch, there's going to be quite a few notes burned with Thistlecrack ruled out. I actually backed Many Clouds to beat him Ante- Post but was gutted when he died just after the line. Made me feel guilty backing him.

The Gold Cup is still a minefield even with Thistlecrack ruled out. I've gone for Djakadam @11/2 with bet365, they are the best price and NRNB. There's no better trainer who can get horses spot on for Cheltenham like Mullins. He was disappointing in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. He didn't run to his full merit and there was still only 2 1/2 lengths between the first 3. He actually beat the winner of that race, Outlander 3 weeks before. He's come second in the last two Gold Cups and he's in with a great chance. Tizzard's horses will be hard to beat but I can see Djakadam going off around 4/1.

Jmashyaka wrote:

TheLeprechaun wrote:

Jmashyaka wrote: Good underdog to take I'll be taking him too, Alvarez should of lost against Chilemba and he was rocked against Prieto. There will be no vada testing so Bute will probably be on the sauce again and I think this fight is being set up for a big money Canadian showdown between Bute and Stevenson whose belt this fight is an eliminator for.

I'm just waiting for Bute points market to open up.

You can be sure that you won't be getting a great price with posts like this on forums. If you think the odds compilers don't read threads like this you're badly mistaken trust me

I doubt they do, I think the bookies follow the money and everything I said is online so they would have done their own research , with that being said if Bute is @3.75 on pp that means a points must be higher maybe 4.5.

My philosophy as a underdog bettor is that I always put the lion's share of my bet on the moneyline when betting a dog and maybe add a little on the ITD or decision prop as well if I feel strongly about how it will end. I never just bet a prop alone. I would hate to be picking a dog- the fighter that is supposed to lose- and miraculously beat the bookies and then lose money anyway because the fighter won in a manner other than I expected. At nearly 3 to 1 Bute straight has value in any case imho. As far as whether the bookies read these betting threads, I know some people on the MMA forums have suggested this as well, so I usually wait until the lines are out and I locked my bets in to post. With the decision prop I don't think it matters anyway really since there are quite a few competing sportsbooks and one oddsmaker can't really change the lines much now.

Don't really know anything about these guys other than what I read on the PBC web site, but rooting for chaos and throwing a quarter on the dog just to amuse myself on a Tuesday night:

Dat Nguyen (+1700) vs Miguel Flores $25.00 for $425.00

For Saturday's tv headliner from Birmingham, Alabama: I had to throw a half unit bet on Washington when his line hit +1300 today. Wilder is probably going to win by stoppage, but he's coming back from a broken hand and bicep tear. Plus these are big heavyweights with power and Wilder hasn't fought super tough competition to this point despite holding the venerable WBC heavyweight belt.

Gerald Washington (+1300) vs Deontay Wilder $50.00 for $650.00

TheLeprechaun wrote:

You can be sure that you won't be getting a great price with posts like this on forums. If you think the odds compilers don't read threads like this you're badly mistaken trust me

Odds compilers these days just check the price on the exchanges then move it out a couple of ticks.

CaptainSpacerod wrote:

TheLeprechaun wrote:

You can be sure that you won't be getting a great price with posts like this on forums. If you think the odds compilers don't read threads like this you're badly mistaken trust me

Odds compilers these days just check the price on the exchanges then move it out a couple of ticks.

The exchanges don't price up boxing.

And the dogs keep barking! Upset of the year so far! Nguyen actually closed at +2000 or better on some books. Cha-ching!

JimGunn wrote:And the dogs keep barking! Upset of the year so far! Nguyen actually closed at +2000 or better on some books. Cha-ching!

Nice win man!

I'm upset that I forgot that fight was tonight. I wanted to lay $20 on Dat, thinking he had at least a small chance. Enjoy your winnings....

Bermane Stiverne, Eric Molina, Johann Duhaupas, Artur Szpilka and Chris Arreola are all better opponents than Gerald Washington IMO.

JimGunn wrote:And the dogs keep barking! Upset of the year so far! Nguyen actually closed at +2000 or better on some books. Cha-ching!

Nice work Jim

JimGunn wrote:And the dogs keep barking! Upset of the year so far! Nguyen actually closed at +2000 or better on some books. Cha-ching!

Your on an unbelievable run, hats off to you bro.

JimGunn wrote:And the dogs keep barking! Upset of the year so far! Nguyen actually closed at +2000 or better on some books. Cha-ching!

Wow sweet.....!

Anyone. On JC Chavez Jnr?

Jmashyaka wrote:

TheLeprechaun wrote:

Jmashyaka wrote: I doubt they do, I think the bookies follow the money and everything I said is online so they would have done their own research , with that being said if Bute is @3.75 on pp that means a points must be higher maybe 4.5.

I know they do for sure mate.

Fair enough I can't definitively say your wrong. I still think it's good to share ideas even if the bookies do get a whiff of them.

I think there should be a separate part of the forum for betting threads and people with a certain number of posts are only allowed on. Nothing stopping the odds compilers from setting up and account and eventually joining but it would make things more difficult. You'll be lucky to get the 3.75 on Bute points now

TheLeprechaun wrote:

Jmashyaka wrote:

TheLeprechaun wrote:

I know they do for sure mate.

Fair enough I can't definitively say your wrong. I still think it's good to share ideas even if the bookies do get a whiff of them.

I think there should be a separate part of the forum for betting threads and people with a certain number of posts are only allowed on. Nothing stopping the odds compilers from setting up and account and eventually joining but it would make things more difficult. You'll be lucky to get the 3.75 on Bute points now

Well the odds for Bute have shortened for sure but I can get 5's on Bute points on PP which I've taken.

Jmashyaka wrote:

TheLeprechaun wrote:

Jmashyaka wrote: Fair enough I can't definitively say your wrong. I still think it's good to share ideas even if the bookies do get a whiff of them.

I think there should be a separate part of the forum for betting threads and people with a certain number of posts are only allowed on. Nothing stopping the odds compilers from setting up and account and eventually joining but it would make things more difficult. You'll be lucky to get the 3.75 on Bute points now

Well the odds for Bute have shortened for sure but I can get 5's on Bute points on PP which I've taken.

They opened up at 4's. So there is no way you got 5's.

I'm good mates with one of their traders, know him from college.

TheLeprechaun wrote:

Jmashyaka wrote:

TheLeprechaun wrote:

I think there should be a separate part of the forum for betting threads and people with a certain number of posts are only allowed on. Nothing stopping the odds compilers from setting up and account and eventually joining but it would make things more difficult. You'll be lucky to get the 3.75 on Bute points now

Well the odds for Bute have shortened for sure but I can get 5's on Bute points on PP which I've taken.

They opened up at 4's. So there is no way you got 5's.

I'm good mates with one of their traders, know him from college.

Bute on points is 4/1 with paddy power.

MattCoke wrote:

TheLeprechaun wrote:

Jmashyaka wrote: Well the odds for Bute have shortened for sure but I can get 5's on Bute points on PP which I've taken.

They opened up at 4's. So there is no way you got 5's.

I'm good mates with one of their traders, know him from college.

Bute on points is 4/1 with paddy power.

That's what i'm saying. Maybe he mean't decimal odds though?

I'm not a big believer in the predictive value of the steam as far as who is actually going to win the fight like some people are. But I do believe in monitoring the line releases and movement closely at multiple sportsbooks and using a bit of intuition based on experience when trying to bet at the optimal time to get the best price. Sometimes that time is at the moment the line releases, sometimes it's in the middle of the week and other times that is at the last minute as the fighters are walking out to the ring or cage in MMA. I had a feeling +280 (and slightly higher at a few books) was going to be about the best available on Bute, so I'm glad I locked in my moneyline play there since it shortened all around since then.