boxingknockout wrote:Ok taking a leaf outta JimGunn's book and laying it down in detail. Remember - the key to me is value, not what you think will happen (famous last words :-))
So some underdog betting for weekend. I have looked at records, ages, experience and these are the bets I feel have some value:
Carlos Soto over Malik Hawkins - 13.0. Soto is a tough Mexican.Hawkins somewhat untested. Think odds should be 6.0 or 5.0 not this high.
Clarkson over Bivol - 9.0. Expect Bivol to win but clarkson will provide tough opposition. I think this fight should be priced at 5.0
Zakaria Attou over Beausiere - 5.0. Attou very tough and experienced, Beausiere toughest fight. Neither punchers. I think Attou should be 2.75 underdog not this long.
Paul Parker over Sullivan Barrera - 15.0. Long shot but whilst both had opposite results against Shabbrinsky, Parker floored him twice and is dangerous.... again, 15.0 is too long - I reckon true odds should be 7.5 or 8.0.
Butcher over Edwards - caught this at 11.0, great value **no longer available**. Price is now 4.0. Thanks to the board for this tip, stay away at these odds.
Ps I put fiver on each result, except tenner on Attou....
Pps I'm more scared of Letting people down than losing the money, wish me luck! One win brings a profit even if small (I think)
Good luck keep us posted
Ok time to stand up and be counted Jimgunn stylee recap:
£25 Indongo over Burns 2.75 = £45.50 profit
£5 Okolie pts 8.0 = £5 loss
£5 Okolie Ko 3 11.0 = £5 loss
£5 clarkson over Bivol= £5 loss
£5 Parker over Barrera= £5 loss
£5 Soto over Hawkins= £5 loss
£7.50 butcher over Edwards = £7.50 loss
£10 Zakaria Attou over Beausiere - 5.0 = £40 profit
Total = £53 profit
Now that's not a life changing sum but it's a return of + 78.5% on investment.
Please note - I am out of work at the moment so can only afford small wagers. If I was working I would probably bet 5 times the stake.
Ok time to stand up and be counted Jimgunn stylee recap:
£25 Indongo over Burns 2.75 = £45.50 profit
£5 Okolie pts 8.0 = £5 loss
£5 Okolie Ko 3 11.0 = £5 loss
£5 clarkson over Bivol= £5 loss
£5 Parker over Barrera= £5 loss
£5 Soto over Hawkins= £5 loss
£7.50 butcher over Edwards = £7.50 loss
£10 Zakaria Attou over Beausiere - 5.0 = £40 profit
Total = £53 profit
Now that's not a life changing sum but it's a return of + 78.5% on investment.
Please note - I am out of work at the moment so can only afford small wagers. If I was working I would probably bet 5 times the stake.
Happy Easter boxing bettors!
All the best well done mate
Thanks pal - all profit is good and it adds an edge to fights. (Can spoil them also!)
I was a bit nervous when my tips were failing..... but it's not about overall wins, it's about profit. If you bet only on 10-1 outsiders for example, it takes one win to break even, and two to be in profit!
MattCoke wrote:Pulev by ko against Kevin Johnson 11/10 or Pulev by decision 10/11, I'm not sure if Johnson can last the 12 rounds or not, what we saying?
See what he's like on the scales you could but atm I'd say surely a KO
MattCoke wrote:Pulev by ko against Kevin Johnson 11/10 or Pulev by decision 10/11, I'm not sure if Johnson can last the 12 rounds or not, what we saying?
See what he's like on the scales you could but atm I'd say surely a KO
12 rounds maybe for a guy who could be coming in with just a paycheck. Hasn't been active and was basically retired. The stoppage play is worth a shot at that price.
Ok - I do well on early prices and future fights. Sometimes you can grab serious value.
So - Miguel Marriaga at 11.0 is a fabulous price against Oscar Valdez. Marriaga' s only loss is to Nicholas Walters on points (albeit wide.) He has some decent wins and is a puncher.
Valdez is the prospect and is undefeated. And there is no doubt he should be favourite..... but 11.0? I say no.
Also Darleys Perez at 4.33 against an essentially untested fragile looking Campbell with one loss against a tough strong guy?
Double is 37.5.
Worth a bet, tenner on Perez, fiver on Marriga, fiver on double....
boxingknockout wrote:Ok - I do well on early prices and future fights. Sometimes you can grab serious value.
So - Miguel Marriaga at 11.0 is a fabulous price against Oscar Valdez. Marriaga' s only loss is to Nicholas Walters on points (albeit wide.) He has some decent wins and is a puncher.
Valdez is the prospect and is undefeated. And there is no doubt he should be favourite..... but 11.0? I say no.
Also Darleys Perez at 4.33 against an essentially untested fragile looking Campbell with one loss against a tough strong guy?
Double is 37.5.
Worth a bet, tenner on Perez, fiver on Marriga, fiver on double....
Good shout on Marriga that fight could be a shootout and it's a very decent price.
boxingknockout wrote:Ok - I do well on early prices and future fights. Sometimes you can grab serious value.
So - Miguel Marriaga at 11.0 is a fabulous price against Oscar Valdez. Marriaga' s only loss is to Nicholas Walters on points (albeit wide.) He has some decent wins and is a puncher.
Valdez is the prospect and is undefeated. And there is no doubt he should be favourite..... but 11.0? I say no.
Also Darleys Perez at 4.33 against an essentially untested fragile looking Campbell with one loss against a tough strong guy?
Double is 37.5.
Worth a bet, tenner on Perez, fiver on Marriga, fiver on double....
Good shout on Marriga that fight could be a shootout and it's a very decent price.
Marriaga was a lot more competitive than the scorecards vs Walters suggested iirc
Like the look of Fielding on points at 2/1. I'm not sold of Fielding's power and Ryder as far as I can remember has always had a fairly solid look about him with the exception of gassing against Blackwell. He didn't seem troubled by Etches' power at 168 in his last fight. I actually think he's more skilled than Fielding but Rocky will have a big size advantage as well as the home crowd.
Heavy on the dogs again this weekend. If Berto finds Porter's chin with his uppercuts, I'm going to be a happy man.
Marcelino Nicolas Lopez (+155) vs Michael Perez $50.00 for $77.50
Sergio Lopez (+2000) vs Christopher Diaz $25.00 for $500.00
Avtandil Khurtsidze (+109) vs Tommy Langford ~$120.00 for ~$130.80
Avtandil Khurtsidze (-222) vs Tommy Langford ~$159.60 for ~$71.89
Avtandil Khurtsidze to knock down Tommy Langford (-150) ~$54.00 for ~$36.00
Joe Hughes (+640) vs Tyrone Nurse ~$48.00 for ~$307.20
Zolani Tete wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+150) vs Arthur Villanueva ~$36.00 for ~$54.00
Gabriel Rosado (+260) vs Martin Murray $100.00 for $260.00
Martin Murray Points Victory Or Technical Decision (-110) ~$66.00 for ~$60.00
John Ryder (+195) vs Rocky Fielding $100.00 for $195.00
John Ryder wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+600) ~$26.40 for ~$158.40
Sean Dodd (+100) vs Lee Appleyard ~$120.00 for ~$120.00
Andre Berto (+505) vs Shawn Porter $100.00 for $505.00
Andre Berto (+480) vs Shawn Porter $100.00 for $480.00
Andre Berto wins by KO/TKO/ DQ (+650) ~$18.00 for ~$117.00
Andre Berto Points Victory Or Technical Decision (+1200) ~$12.00 for ~$144.00
Charles Hatley (+1300) vs Jermell Charlo $25.00 for $325.00
Miguel Marriaga (+950) vs Oscar Valdez ~$26.40 for ~$250.80
Adeilson Dos Santos (+2500) vs Jessie Magdaleno $20.00 for $500.00
JimGunn wrote:Heavy on the dogs again this weekend. If Berto finds Porter's chin with his uppercuts, I'm going to be a happy man.
Marcelino Nicolas Lopez (+155) vs Michael Perez $50.00 for $77.50
Sergio Lopez (+2000) vs Christopher Diaz $25.00 for $500.00
Avtandil Khurtsidze (+109) vs Tommy Langford ~$120.00 for ~$130.80
Avtandil Khurtsidze (-222) vs Tommy Langford ~$159.60 for ~$71.89
Avtandil Khurtsidze to knock down Tommy Langford (-150) ~$54.00 for ~$36.00
Joe Hughes (+640) vs Tyrone Nurse ~$48.00 for ~$307.20
Zolani Tete wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+150) vs Arthur Villanueva ~$36.00 for ~$54.00
Gabriel Rosado (+260) vs Martin Murray $100.00 for $260.00
Martin Murray Points Victory Or Technical Decision (-110) ~$66.00 for ~$60.00
John Ryder (+195) vs Rocky Fielding $100.00 for $195.00
John Ryder wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+600) ~$26.40 for ~$158.40
Sean Dodd (+100) vs Lee Appleyard ~$120.00 for ~$120.00
Andre Berto (+505) vs Shawn Porter $100.00 for $505.00
Andre Berto (+480) vs Shawn Porter $100.00 for $480.00
Andre Berto wins by KO/TKO/ DQ (+650) ~$18.00 for ~$117.00
Andre Berto Points Victory Or Technical Decision (+1200) ~$12.00 for ~$144.00
Charles Hatley (+1300) vs Jermell Charlo $25.00 for $325.00
Miguel Marriaga (+950) vs Oscar Valdez ~$26.40 for ~$250.80
Adeilson Dos Santos (+2500) vs Jessie Magdaleno $20.00 for $500.00
Some gutsy bets there... only ones I have taken are Marriga to win, Sean Dodd win, Murray points.
I was lucky to catch Khurtdizde early at 2.5 also
I have loads of accas / parlays over the next few weeks; too many to name...
I went with Porter by KO/TKO/DQ. Berto has an uppercut hail mary of hope. He was down to both Lopez and Ortiz until the stoppages. If Karass's pressure stopped Berto, and Porter stood up to Thurman's power, logic dictates to me Porter stops him. Boxing always doesn't follow logic however.
Took Hatley being a big dog. Charlo, to me, just isn't that great....
Having seen Khurtsidze on the scales today and fail to make weight I now see value in Langford. Khurtsidze looked awful. Nothing much else catching my eye so Lang
ford is my only bet at the moment @ 23/10 to win.
The Insider wrote:Having seen Khurtsidze on the scales today and fail to make weight I now see value in Langford. Khurtsidze looked awful. Nothing much else catching my eye so Lang
ford is my only bet at the moment @ 23/10 to win.
I thought he looked quite solid. I thinks it's a real pick em fight but I feel Langford might edge out a decision.
