Betting thread

[JimGunn]

Big on Manny and Manny by stoppage now:

Manny Pacquiao (-416) vs Jeff Horn ~$437.50 for ~$105.17
Manny Pacquiao (-435) vs Jeff Horn ~$437.50 for ~$100.57
Manny Pacquiao wins in round 1-6 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Manny Pacquiao wins by TKO not KO or DQ (+250) ~$57.50 for ~$143.75
Manny Pacquiao wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+151) $100.00 for $151.00
Manny Pacquiao/Jeff Horn won't start round 8 (+249) $40.16 for $100.00
Manny Pacquiao/Jeff Horn Under 9½ (+150) $66.67 for $100.00
Manny Pacquiao/Jeff Horn Under 10½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00
Manny Pacquiao wins by KO/TKO/DQ or unanimous decision (-290) $290.00 for $100.00

Shane Mosley Jr. (+255) vs David Toussaint $40.00 for $102.00

[keithmoonhangover]

I've only bet once this year and that was Ward stoppage. I really fancy going strong on Horn by stoppage, I just think father time is due any day for Manny.

[The Insider]

I've only bet once this year and that was Ward stoppage. I really fancy going strong on Horn by stoppage, I just think father time is due any day for Manny.

Gwaaaan Keith. Imagine if he does it now........

[keithmoonhangover]

I've only bet once this year and that was Ward stoppage. I really fancy going strong on Horn by stoppage, I just think father time is due any day for Manny.

Gwaaaan Keith. Imagine if he does it now........

I've been uiltra careful since Povetkin-gate. Manny is finished, I just don't know if Horn is the man.

[The Insider]

I've only bet once this year and that was Ward stoppage. I really fancy going strong on Horn by stoppage, I just think father time is due any day for Manny.

Gwaaaan Keith. Imagine if he does it now........

I've been uiltra careful since Povetkin-gate. Manny is finished, I just don't know if Horn is the man.

9/1

You know you want to......

Just a tickle

[TheLeprechaun]

I don't see how horn doesn't get done inside 3 rounds. Pacquiao shouldn't have any problems landing flush and horns legs turned to jelly vs Bailey and funeka

[keithmoonhangover]

Gwaaaan Keith. Imagine if he does it now........

I've been uiltra careful since Povetkin-gate. Manny is finished, I just don't know if Horn is the man.

9/1

You know you want to......

Just a tickle

He's young and hungry and he's fighting a semi retired, unfocused old man.

[The Insider]

He's young and hungry and he's fighting a semi retired, unfocused old man.

#WARHORN

Lets do this.

[SaadOffTheDeck]

I'm in for $100, going to parlay every bet I make with Floyd between now and August.

[keithmoonhangover]

He's young and hungry and he's fighting a semi retired, unfocused old man.

#WARHORN

Lets do this.

I've just been paid a bonus at work that I wasn't expecting, so £100 of it just went on Horn stoppage. When aging legends go to Oz they lose, RJJ, Mosley, Toney, OK I'm stretching it a bit. Horn hits Manny when he's thinking about testing.

[ElJefe]

I've only bet once this year and that was Ward stoppage. I really fancy going strong on Horn by stoppage, I just think father time is due any day for Manny.

Gwaaaan Keith. Imagine if he does it now........

I've been uiltra careful since Povetkin-gate. Manny is finished, I just don't know if Horn is the man.

What makes you say he's finished? He's completely outclassed 2 top 10 welterweights in his last 2 fights. Both of whom are levels above Horn. He's nowhere near what he was, but to say he's finished is over exaggerating imo.

[JimGunn]

[crusader]

The punch stats seem too heavily weighted in Manny's favour to me. IMO Horn had more success than that...

I first thought the stats were off in Mosley's undercard bout, as from the get go they had him outlanding an opponent who I saw outboxing him. Mosley really didn't come into that fight until the last two...

[armageto]

Horn might have done slightly better than what his punch stats suggest, but there is no way I can give him 7 rounds. I don't see how not one judge didn't give Manny a 10-8 for the 9th round. Horn did better than what most expected, but he still lost.

Jim, I'm sorry you lost your bets man. This is the main reason I occasionally bet just for something to cheer for and for fun these days instead of on units. The sport is BS......

[SaadOffTheDeck]

Thanks Keith, I now have Floyd at a beautiful price.

[The Insider]

This particular punch stat info is irrelevant and misleading. However, Manny won the fight for me.

[JimGunn]

The lesson here for me is that if the fight is close or back & forth or even in someone's home country with a supportive crowd and likely going to a decision, that one has to hedge live if at all possible on fighter B at + money if you are heavy on fighter A just in case there is a controversial decision or "robbery" like this. I think Horn was like +450 or better at one point in the later rounds on 5Dimes, which had a rare live line for a boxing match, and similar elsewhere. Even a big loss like this was less than 10% of my bankroll, and far less than I won on Ward recently, so not a huge deal for me, other than bruising my ego, especially as someone who is usually on the underdog side.

[GlobalBox]

Like Jim I am still licking my wounds on Manny but I am going to go in again with Taylor/Davies not to go the distance at Evs. It may well be that with both men hitting reasonably hard it develops into a boxing match, equally they may both revert to landing big shots whenever possible. Still I think it's a 1/2 shot it don't go the distance so working by that scenario I have to take the evens.

[TheLeprechaun]

The lesson here for me is that if the fight is close or back & forth or even in someone's home country with a supportive crowd and likely going to a decision, that one has to hedge live if at all possible on fighter B at + money if you are heavy on fighter A just in case there is a controversial decision or "robbery" like this. I think Horn was like +450 or better at one point in the later rounds on 5Dimes, which had a rare live line for a boxing match, and similar elsewhere. Even a big loss like this was less than 10% of my bankroll, and far less than I won on Ward recently, so not a huge deal for me, other than bruising my ego, especially as someone who is usually on the underdog side.

I think it's just a case of getting it wrong. If you backed horn in running you could have lost even more if pac got the decision or if it was a draw.

Sometimes we just get it wrong and that's that. I also thought Pacquiao would stop Horn but I got it wrong. I just have to admit that and let the money go.

Not every bet will be a winner. It's about your overall profit after a long period of time.

[GlobalBox]

The lesson here for me is that if the fight is close or back & forth or even in someone's home country with a supportive crowd and likely going to a decision, that one has to hedge live if at all possible on fighter B at + money if you are heavy on fighter A just in case there is a controversial decision or "robbery" like this. I think Horn was like +450 or better at one point in the later rounds on 5Dimes, which had a rare live line for a boxing match, and similar elsewhere. Even a big loss like this was less than 10% of my bankroll, and far less than I won on Ward recently, so not a huge deal for me, other than bruising my ego, especially as someone who is usually on the underdog side.

I think it's just a case of getting it wrong. If you backed horn in running you could have lost even more if pac got the decision or if it was a draw.

Sometimes we just get it wrong and that's that. I also thought Pacquiao would stop Horn but I got it wrong. I just have to admit that and let the money go.

Not every bet will be a winner. It's about your overall profit after a long period of time.

Very true and although disappointed to lose as we would all be, winning 4 figures this year is enough for me and happy with that. You have probably seen me post about my idea of value and that is what I bet with to be honest, I thought Pac was an evs shot to win by ko (which many did not and they were right) I took the early 2s so to me I had to back it, same with this bet really. Due for a bad run to be honest 8 of last 10 boxing bets have won so really must expect this as you say. Still Saturday beckons and we will go from there. Cheers

[Jmashyaka]

Anyone thinking Larry Ekundayo has a shot against Corcoran the guy looks pretty fluid and silky. He was 7/4 now at 5/4.

[littlepug]

Berchelt win, Figueroa win, Joe smith win and Eubank by ko/tko pays 15-1

[crusader]

IMO there is decent value (I'm seeing 7/4 in multiple books) on Rob Brant against Braehmer. Braehmer obviously has a stronger record and is used to LHW opposition, but Brant was a top US amateur at 178 and I think trajectories are in his favour, with Braehmer quitting last fight, being nearly 40, and already working as a trainer. Plus, how easily will he make 168 at this age, after nearly 10 years at 175?

Brant did have a close fight 2 years ago with Louis Rose, but since then he's been on a KO roll, with a KTFO of the Year contender against Decarlo Perez (see the Super Series thread). I think this opportunity may have come at the right time and against the right person for him..

[JimGunn]

Two powerful light-heavyweights who are potentially chinny, so have to bet the dog at this price, especially since this hungry former union laborer brutally knocked out his last two opponents, one out of the ring.

Joe Smith Jr. (+229) vs Sullivan Barrera $100.00 for $229.00

[ShadrachSimmo]

3/1 on Monaghan looks quite big. Both guys pretty much untested but Monaghan has fought the better opponents i reckon.