Brits Abroad: Froch, Haye, Rhodes and Macklin.
Posted: 25 May 2011, 07:42
A feature in this months Boxing Monthly has experts ranking the chances of 4 of Britain's boxers in their upcoming world title fights, all away from home.
Pick your winners, percentage splits and methods.
Carl Froch vs Glen Johnson. 4th June, Atlantic City, USA.
80:20
Enough has been said about Froch's run of fights so I wont go into too much detail except to say I think each has taught him something different, which he can use in this fight. To keep his head and box to a gameplan (Abraham), to stay busy if he wants a decision (Kessler), the confidence to not lose his head if he goes behind (Taylor) and changing a brawl into a boxing match (Pascal).
Another impressive victory for Johnson against Green, but someone who is a level or two below the top guys of the tournament. Glen comes to fight and is durable, but has shown he is able to be outboxed by most of his better opposition, if never easily. He will try and make it into a shootout and work his way inside, but Froch can box at range and use his jab and reach to build points, while waiting for his opportunity to throw combinations.
Froch decision.
David Haye vs Wladimir Klitchsko. 2nd July, Hamburg, Germany.
40:60
Klitschko's main asset will be his jab. Haye knows this so his strategy will focus on taking his jab away. I think his strategy will revolve around feints/threats to make Wlad think he is about to unload, draw the jab and slip it to get inside to land his powershots. This will make it a very cagey opening to the fight, as Haye's often are (and Wlad's almost always are) when he is fearful of the other guy's power; Enzo, Harrison etc. The fight centres around range control. Klitschko controls distance well with a powerful jab and large reach, with short shots inside (usually the overhand right) to punish you if you rush in carelessly, or clinching.
This clinching may be a large part of Wlad's gameplan. As the larger man he may try to wear Haye down by holding, as Haye's stamina is questioned, rightly or wrongly after gassing against Thompson so long ago. His fights have rarely gone far so it's hard to assess whether his stamina has improved. I can't see this being too important; Haye landed so many powershots against Thompson it was a miracle he was standing. The lateral movement will tire him but he will be in condition and wont have an effect unless he gets caught too often.
It's highly likely there will be a knockdown; body have questionable resistance and good power. Make no mistake, Haye has Heavyweight power, Ruiz has rarely been down in his career and Haye put him on his bum moving backward, and even staggered man mountain Valuev. However, Haye has shown me he is better able to cope with adversity. Against Mormeck he got tagged, but sensibly took a knee and regained his composure. Against Barrett he started sloppy and was put down but got back up to win. Contrast to Wlad who doesn't seem able to clear his head after getting knocked down, and Haye is the better finisher.
A jab is a lot more effective against a static target, as so many of Wladimir's opponents have been. But if Haye gets caught, you can expect the sledgehammer of a straight right following it. The fight will be more open than the bigger guy would like, and I can see him in trouble at times. But I can see his power making Haye wary enough that the opportunities aren't regular enough for Haye to earn a decision, and pick Wlad to be standing at the final bell. Seems intuitive that there will be a knockout with each guy having power and a suspect chin, but have been toying with the decision too. (As a side note, everyone who has been on the cover of Fight Night has lost their next fight).
Klitchsko late stoppage.
Ryan Rhodes vs Saul Alvarez. 18th June, Guadalajara, Mexico.
35:65.
Seems a tough ask, away in Mexico against Goldenboy's Goldenboy. Alvarez had a fairly comfortable win last time out against Matthew Hatton in a peashooter vs cannon contest, but one in which his was outboxed for large periods, and only seemed to fight one minute of each round. A big knockout of Baldomir proved he does have some power, and his questionable defence has shown his chin to be good. Not the most rounded boxer, but makes good use of his physicality and is a good bodypuncher. Ryan's fight against Messi had people thinking he may be back to his best, but I believe was slightly overrated against a solid but not exactly dangerous opponent. Ryan had a quick blow out against Rocky Junior last time out (didn't catch it), but 2 rounds in a year has me wondering if he may suffer from ring rust, against an active boxer with 36 rounds under his belt in the same time.
Should be a exciting fight, you don't have to look for either so it should be a tear up from the start. I expect Ryan to have success in the same way Hatton did, but without the size advantage Canelo enjoyed his punches wont have the same effect and he will have to be more wary of the return fire. Alvarez to up his activity from that bout and fight full rounds to a 2-4 round points win in a competitive fight, in which I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers a knockdown.
Alvarez decision.
Matthew Macklin vs Felix Sturm. 25th June, Cologne, Germany.
20:80.
Macklin is a inconsistent performer, and laboured to a win last time out against a common opponent outboxed easily by the German. Macklin seems easy to catch and while durable I don't see him having the skills to trouble Sturm. Coming after a fight at the Magnificent 7 where he failed to impress, I'm not convinced either of his form leading up to his biggest fight. With so many trainers, he seems to lack consistency.
Sturm isn't the most exciting but is dependable. He may be a stay at home boxer, but he has faced the better standard of opposition, and won more impressively. With home advantage, I see little chance of Sturm losing. Behind the jab, and with a tight defence I think he can keep Macklin off him and rack up points.
Sturm decision.
TLDR: Froch wins, Haye, Rhodes and Macklin lose. Make your picks.
Pick your winners, percentage splits and methods.
Carl Froch vs Glen Johnson. 4th June, Atlantic City, USA.
80:20
Enough has been said about Froch's run of fights so I wont go into too much detail except to say I think each has taught him something different, which he can use in this fight. To keep his head and box to a gameplan (Abraham), to stay busy if he wants a decision (Kessler), the confidence to not lose his head if he goes behind (Taylor) and changing a brawl into a boxing match (Pascal).
Another impressive victory for Johnson against Green, but someone who is a level or two below the top guys of the tournament. Glen comes to fight and is durable, but has shown he is able to be outboxed by most of his better opposition, if never easily. He will try and make it into a shootout and work his way inside, but Froch can box at range and use his jab and reach to build points, while waiting for his opportunity to throw combinations.
Froch decision.
David Haye vs Wladimir Klitchsko. 2nd July, Hamburg, Germany.
40:60
Klitschko's main asset will be his jab. Haye knows this so his strategy will focus on taking his jab away. I think his strategy will revolve around feints/threats to make Wlad think he is about to unload, draw the jab and slip it to get inside to land his powershots. This will make it a very cagey opening to the fight, as Haye's often are (and Wlad's almost always are) when he is fearful of the other guy's power; Enzo, Harrison etc. The fight centres around range control. Klitschko controls distance well with a powerful jab and large reach, with short shots inside (usually the overhand right) to punish you if you rush in carelessly, or clinching.
This clinching may be a large part of Wlad's gameplan. As the larger man he may try to wear Haye down by holding, as Haye's stamina is questioned, rightly or wrongly after gassing against Thompson so long ago. His fights have rarely gone far so it's hard to assess whether his stamina has improved. I can't see this being too important; Haye landed so many powershots against Thompson it was a miracle he was standing. The lateral movement will tire him but he will be in condition and wont have an effect unless he gets caught too often.
It's highly likely there will be a knockdown; body have questionable resistance and good power. Make no mistake, Haye has Heavyweight power, Ruiz has rarely been down in his career and Haye put him on his bum moving backward, and even staggered man mountain Valuev. However, Haye has shown me he is better able to cope with adversity. Against Mormeck he got tagged, but sensibly took a knee and regained his composure. Against Barrett he started sloppy and was put down but got back up to win. Contrast to Wlad who doesn't seem able to clear his head after getting knocked down, and Haye is the better finisher.
A jab is a lot more effective against a static target, as so many of Wladimir's opponents have been. But if Haye gets caught, you can expect the sledgehammer of a straight right following it. The fight will be more open than the bigger guy would like, and I can see him in trouble at times. But I can see his power making Haye wary enough that the opportunities aren't regular enough for Haye to earn a decision, and pick Wlad to be standing at the final bell. Seems intuitive that there will be a knockout with each guy having power and a suspect chin, but have been toying with the decision too. (As a side note, everyone who has been on the cover of Fight Night has lost their next fight).
Klitchsko late stoppage.
Ryan Rhodes vs Saul Alvarez. 18th June, Guadalajara, Mexico.
35:65.
Seems a tough ask, away in Mexico against Goldenboy's Goldenboy. Alvarez had a fairly comfortable win last time out against Matthew Hatton in a peashooter vs cannon contest, but one in which his was outboxed for large periods, and only seemed to fight one minute of each round. A big knockout of Baldomir proved he does have some power, and his questionable defence has shown his chin to be good. Not the most rounded boxer, but makes good use of his physicality and is a good bodypuncher. Ryan's fight against Messi had people thinking he may be back to his best, but I believe was slightly overrated against a solid but not exactly dangerous opponent. Ryan had a quick blow out against Rocky Junior last time out (didn't catch it), but 2 rounds in a year has me wondering if he may suffer from ring rust, against an active boxer with 36 rounds under his belt in the same time.
Should be a exciting fight, you don't have to look for either so it should be a tear up from the start. I expect Ryan to have success in the same way Hatton did, but without the size advantage Canelo enjoyed his punches wont have the same effect and he will have to be more wary of the return fire. Alvarez to up his activity from that bout and fight full rounds to a 2-4 round points win in a competitive fight, in which I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers a knockdown.
Alvarez decision.
Matthew Macklin vs Felix Sturm. 25th June, Cologne, Germany.
20:80.
Macklin is a inconsistent performer, and laboured to a win last time out against a common opponent outboxed easily by the German. Macklin seems easy to catch and while durable I don't see him having the skills to trouble Sturm. Coming after a fight at the Magnificent 7 where he failed to impress, I'm not convinced either of his form leading up to his biggest fight. With so many trainers, he seems to lack consistency.
Sturm isn't the most exciting but is dependable. He may be a stay at home boxer, but he has faced the better standard of opposition, and won more impressively. With home advantage, I see little chance of Sturm losing. Behind the jab, and with a tight defence I think he can keep Macklin off him and rack up points.
Sturm decision.
TLDR: Froch wins, Haye, Rhodes and Macklin lose. Make your picks.
