BoxRec

The key battle for me will be Floyd's hand speed vs Manny's head movement. Whoever wins that battle, controls the range. If Floyd can pick Pacquiao off as he tries to come forward, it's going to be a long, fustrating 12 rounds for Pac with very few 10pt rounds going down on his card. If his head movement closes the range without getting tagged Floyd is getting chin-checked by the best left hand in the sport.


Floyd:
Floyd's a long-range, outside fighter, pot-shotter & counter-puncher.

Here's a great example of Floyd controlling the fight against Guerrero with his superior reach and hand-speed, no-need to counter, Floyd shoots off first when Robert think's he's out of range.




Pacquiao:
Pacquiao's a mid-range in/out combo-puncher.
Pacquiao was boxing well against Marquez before getting put to sleep, check out Round 5 from here;

http://youtu.be/R6iQ9kUR56I?t=41m39s

His head movement and footwork was excellent.

Defensively, when Marquez tries to pick off pot-shots from the outside, Pacquiao's default is to hold his gloves straight up, he just catches the punches on the gloves and drops a step back. Simple, but highly effective given his reaction speed.

Offensively, his footwork is as good as i've ever seen, it opens up angles for him that almost seem impossible, his head-movement in tandem with his gloves up makes it hard to jab and pick off as he comes in, it's almost a Cus D'Amato-esque peek-a-boo style.

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Those are the plus points to Pacquiao's style and what he needs to utilise. The negative's to his style/strategy:

1. Floyd's reach - If closing the range on Marquez was hard, Floyd will be even harder, due to Floyd's reach Pacquiao has another 6inches+ of distance to close. Marquez let's rip with powerful combo's though, given Floyd's lack of power and brittle hands Pac might be morek een on taking 1 to get in range (less keen vs Marquez).

2. Floyd's signature punch in his old age is the jab to body the body. I love that shot, it's so sharp and a jab to the gut like that will stop Pacquiao's advances if it lands. With Pacquiao's high guard, he'll be open to it, Marquez used bodyshots for Pac to lower his guard. Against a Southpaw though, orthodox jab to the body is risky (see Floyd getting Knockdown by Zab, wide open to the SP cocked left hook).

3. Concentration & energy. In Marquez 4, Pacquiao's concentration levels and energy levels to sustain his head movement and relentless offence are maxxed out. He was putting a beating on Marquez but it only takes 1 lapse in concentration against an expert counter-puncher and that was all she wrote.

Does Pacquiao have the concentration and energy levels to sustain it for 12 rounds? I don't think he ever did to be honest, but in his prime he never needed to, because he did so much damage early (Barrera, Cotto, Margarito) that by the later rounds he could step off the gas and take his time to finish the beatdown he started in the first half of the fight.

Considering Pac vs Marquez 1,2 & 3, and considering Bradley 1 & 2, it would suggest we're in for a 12 round boxing match. It's going to take a career-best performance but Pacquiao has the tools to put a beating on Floyd.

Ricky_ wrote:The key battle for me will be Floyd's hand speed vs Manny's head movement. Whoever wins that battle, controls the range. If Floyd can pick Pacquiao off as he tries to come forward, it's going to be a long, fustrating 12 rounds for Pac with very few 10pt rounds going down on his card. If his head movement closes the range without getting tagged Floyd is getting chin-checked by the best left hand in the sport.


Floyd:
Floyd's a long-range, outside fighter, pot-shotter & counter-puncher.

Here's a great example of Floyd controlling the fight against Guerrero with his superior reach and hand-speed, no-need to counter, Floyd shoots off first when Robert think's he's out of range.




Pacquiao:
Pacquiao's a mid-range in/out combo-puncher.
Pacquiao was boxing well against Marquez before getting put to sleep, check out Round 5 from here;

http://youtu.be/R6iQ9kUR56I?t=41m39s

His head movement and footwork was excellent.

Defensively, when Marquez tries to pick off pot-shots from the outside, Pacquiao's default is to hold his gloves straight up, he just catches the punches on the gloves and drops a step back. Simple, but highly effective given his reaction speed.

Offensively, his footwork is as good as i've ever seen, it opens up angles for him that almost seem impossible, his head-movement in tandem with his gloves up makes it hard to jab and pick off as he comes in, it's almost a Cus D'Amato-esque peek-a-boo style.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Those are the plus points to Pacquiao's style and what he needs to utilise. The negative's to his style/strategy:

1. Floyd's reach - If closing the range on Marquez was hard, Floyd will be even harder, due to Floyd's reach Pacquiao has another 6inches+ of distance to close. Marquez let's rip with powerful combo's though, given Floyd's lack of power and brittle hands Pac might be morek een on taking 1 to get in range (less keen vs Marquez).

2. Floyd's signature punch in his old age is the jab to body the body. I love that shot, it's so sharp and a jab to the gut like that will stop Pacquiao's advances if it lands. With Pacquiao's high guard, he'll be open to it, Marquez used bodyshots for Pac to lower his guard. Against a Southpaw though, orthodox jab to the body is risky (see Floyd getting Knockdown by Zab, wide open to the SP cocked left hook).

3. Concentration & energy. In Marquez 4, Pacquiao's concentration levels and energy levels to sustain his head movement and relentless offence are maxxed out. He was putting a beating on Marquez but it only takes 1 lapse in concentration against an expert counter-puncher and that was all she wrote.

Does Pacquiao have the concentration and energy levels to sustain it for 12 rounds? I don't think he ever did to be honest, but in his prime he never needed to, because he did so much damage early (Barrera, Cotto, Margarito) that by the later rounds he could step off the gas and take his time to finish the beatdown he started in the first half of the fight.

Considering Pac vs Marquez 1,2 & 3, and considering Bradley 1 & 2, it would suggest we're in for a 12 round boxing match. It's going to take a career-best performance but Pacquiao has the tools to put a beating on Floyd.

Not a bad breakdown Rick but I have a few things to clean up for you:
1. Zab knocked down Floyd with a right hook, I think Manny's right hook aka Manila Ice is far better
2. Floyd has the momentum killer in his excellent ability to tie up a fighter who tries to be offensive against him once they are close so this is a fate that Pacquiao will soon have to suffer the frustration with of trying to find another offensive maneuver to try and best
3. Manny has great angles and he throws shots from those angles but the question is; will Floyd simply sit there while Packy is trying to work those angles?
4. Head movement by Manny isn't all that great because he only uses it on the outside, when he is coming forward he gets hit and hit often.
5. I think you are underestimating Floyd's punching power, and I doubt if Manny will be willing to take 1 to get in his 1, look at what Mayweather's opponents had to say about his punching power (other than Maidana, of course) and you'll see that all of them stopped rushing in because they ran into something that made them respect his ability to punch.
6. Last but not least you have to consider whether or not Manny's beard will hold up, especially if he gets hit with a shot that he just doesn't see coming like in the JMM 4 fight.

I think it'll be entertaining for 4 rounds but then all those things you pointed out in regards to Floyd other than the lack of punching power and brittle hands will come into play and he will thoroughly dominate Pacquiao for the rest of the fight.....it's only a matter of the timing and once Floyd has solved that this will be a done deal.

KBB wrote:
Not a bad breakdown Rick but I have a few things to clean up for you:
1. Zab knocked down Floyd with a right hook, I think Manny's right hook aka Manila Ice is far better

My bad, yes counter-right hook from SP stance with Floyd's chin hanging low. Floyd's much better at that punch now than he was then, but he has trouble jabbing against Southpaws at all due to the stance. He struggled with the jab early vs Guerrero, kept missing it, and ended up switching to lead right.

KBB wrote:2. Floyd has the momentum killer in his excellent ability to tie up a fighter who tries to be offensive against him once they are close so this is a fate that Pacquiao will soon have to suffer the frustration with of trying to find another offensive maneuver to try and best

Who has ever tied Pacquiao up? There won't be alot of clinching in this fight because neither guy wants to fight in a phone box. See: Pacquiao-Bradley 2. With Bradley on the ropes he would have tied up if he could have, Pacquiao stays a step off and unloads in/out combos. When Pacquiao clinches, he has no interest in-fighting, he usually puts his head low so the ref calls break.

KBB wrote:3. Manny has great angles and he throws shots from those angles but the question is; will Floyd simply sit there while Packy is trying to work those angles?

Ofcourse not, Floyd will look to disrupt his rythm from the outside, hence the title of this thread.

KBB wrote:4. Head movement by Manny isn't all that great because he only uses it on the outside, when he is coming forward he gets hit and hit often.

No he doesn't, the purpose of it is to get in range, it's classic peek-a-boo, not exactly difficult execution for a world level fighter.

KBB wrote:5. I think you are underestimating Floyd's punching power, and I doubt if Manny will be willing to take 1 to get in his 1, look at what Mayweather's opponents had to say about his punching power (other than Maidana, of course) and you'll see that all of them stopped rushing in because they ran into something that made them respect his ability to punch.


6. Last but not least you have to consider whether or not Manny's beard will hold up, especially if he gets hit with a shot that he just doesn't see coming like in the JMM 4 fight.

I think it'll be entertaining for 4 rounds but then all those things you pointed out in regards to Floyd other than the lack of punching power and brittle hands will come into play and he will thoroughly dominate Pacquiao for the rest of the fight.....it's only a matter of the timing and once Floyd has solved that this will be a done deal.

I think he shook-up Canelo a couple of times, but i can barely remember the last time he left a mark on a guy, he wears padded gloves to protect his hands and i tend to think he's more likely to injure his hand than put a real hurtful shot on an opponent. When Marquez KO'd Pac, he pushed into the shot from a crouched position, he sprung his entire body-weight forward through the kinetic energy through his legs. He leaped into it as Pacquiao shuffled on to it. Floyd almost never moves forward into his shots, check the GIF above, that's typical of Floyd, scoring long-range shots with his feet planted. The last time i seen him take a risk by springing into a shot was the KO right hand to Ortiz who wasn't looking... and even then he still negated risk by setting it up with a left-hook first.

Ricky_ wrote:

KBB wrote:
Not a bad breakdown Rick but I have a few things to clean up for you:
1. Zab knocked down Floyd with a right hook, I think Manny's right hook aka Manila Ice is far better

My bad, yes counter-right hook from SP stance with Floyd's chin hanging low. Floyd's much better at that punch now than he was then, but he has trouble jabbing against Southpaws at all due to the stance. He struggled with the jab early vs Guerrero, kept missing it, and ended up switching to lead right.

KBB wrote:2. Floyd has the momentum killer in his excellent ability to tie up a fighter who tries to be offensive against him once they are close so this is a fate that Pacquiao will soon have to suffer the frustration with of trying to find another offensive maneuver to try and best

Who has ever tied Pacquiao up? There won't be alot of clinching in this fight because neither guy wants to fight in a phone box. See: Pacquiao-Bradley 2. With Bradley on the ropes he would have tied up if he could have, Pacquiao stays a step off and unloads in/out combos. When Pacquiao clinches, he has no interest in-fighting, he usually puts his head low so the ref calls break.

KBB wrote:3. Manny has great angles and he throws shots from those angles but the question is; will Floyd simply sit there while Packy is trying to work those angles?

Ofcourse not, Floyd will look to disrupt his rythm from the outside, hence the title of this thread.

KBB wrote:4. Head movement by Manny isn't all that great because he only uses it on the outside, when he is coming forward he gets hit and hit often.

No he doesn't, the purpose of it is to get in range, it's classic peek-a-boo, not exactly difficult execution for a world level fighter.

KBB wrote:5. I think you are underestimating Floyd's punching power, and I doubt if Manny will be willing to take 1 to get in his 1, look at what Mayweather's opponents had to say about his punching power (other than Maidana, of course) and you'll see that all of them stopped rushing in because they ran into something that made them respect his ability to punch.


6. Last but not least you have to consider whether or not Manny's beard will hold up, especially if he gets hit with a shot that he just doesn't see coming like in the JMM 4 fight.

I think it'll be entertaining for 4 rounds but then all those things you pointed out in regards to Floyd other than the lack of punching power and brittle hands will come into play and he will thoroughly dominate Pacquiao for the rest of the fight.....it's only a matter of the timing and once Floyd has solved that this will be a done deal.

I think he shook-up Canelo a couple of times, but i can barely remember the last time he left a mark on a guy, he wears padded gloves to protect his hands and i tend to think he's more likely to injure his hand than put a real hurtful shot on an opponent. When Marquez KO'd Pac, he pushed into the shot from a crouched position, he sprung his entire body-weight forward through the kinetic energy through his legs. He leaped into it as Pacquiao shuffled on to it. Floyd almost never moves forward into his shots, check the GIF above, that's typical of Floyd, scoring long-range shots with his feet planted. The last time i seen him take a risk by springing into a shot was the KO right hand to Ortiz who wasn't looking... and even then he still negated risk by setting it up with a left-hook first.

Stated very well.

Ricky and KBB playing nice?

Badhusker wrote:

Ricky and KBB playing nice?

We alright, we both just want our fighter to win and get competitive because of it.

Badhusker wrote:

Ricky and KBB playing nice?

Surprisingly he's the only person who's engaged in a more technical discussion of the ins/outs of the bout, which is why i post on here in the first place.

i thought the opposite: will manny's speed
outdo floyd's head movement. i expect that
manny will fight in spurts and the question
is if he can connect anything within the first
two rounds. if he fails to do that, the fight is
basically over.

BHop's take on the fight:

Not only will I break the fight down for you, I will give you a prediction. Now, I could be wrong, but then again, I could be right. The first 5 or 6 rounds, it's going to be a back and fourth fight because of Pacquiao's aggression. But Pacquiao is not the best defensive fighter. Mayweather is going to sharp shoot, and not only is Mayweather going to fight back when he needs to, but after that 6th round, it's done," stated future Hall of Famer Bernard Hopkins, who gave his official prediction on the long-awaited May 2 showdown between undefeated pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather and 8-division world champion Manny Pacquiao. According to Hopkins, after the first 6 rounds of the fight, Mayweather will begin to dominate to the point that some fans will be upset.

"Hey, listen, there will be people that's so upset because they charging people money, they are going to be so upset because in the second half, it somehow turned into such easy work that they are going to feel like there was some type of corruption or foul play or pollution in the air. They are gonna make up all kinds of excuses (laughing). I believe the second half of these 12 rounds gonna be target practice for Floyd. And it's going to be a situation where, is he putting a show on just so people can get their monies worth or is it just that easy. That's my bold statement and I stick by it, now let's wait 8 to 9 weeks and see what happens," Hopkins explained during a recent conversation with Fight Hype.com. "The fans have spoken and they delivered. It's better late than never. Enjoy the super fight, our Super Bowl of fights this year, and this is the beginning, I hope, of big fights to come, whether it's Golden Boy or any other promotional outlet. At the end of the day, if everybody step their game up, you don't have to complain; just do! Thank you and continue to support boxing!"

man wrote:i thought the opposite: will manny's speed
outdo floyd's head movement. i expect that
manny will fight in spurts and the question
is if he can connect anything within the first
two rounds. if he fails to do that, the fight is
basically over.

Yea i take this view more. And if pac can find a home for the left hand he will do damage as he always does. Will pac chase floyd to the ropes or will floyd use his size advantage and toy with pac centre ring??

The major key is the positioning and timing, who gets his foot outside first, the classic manuevering bet a southpaw and an orthodox fighter

I think Floyds ringcraft wins this fight. Manny isn't anywhere near the fighter he was 5 years ago (IMO) and although Floyd has slipped he hasn't slipped to Manny's level. I don't see how Pacman wins this fight ............................... if it happens, I still have my doubts.

It's a mistake to underestimate the significance of how unique and unconventional Manny's style is. A guy that creates his own angles a cock-eyed southpaw with great footwork is going to land his shots lol.. Cotto and Maidana were hitting Floyd clean and Manny will too.. this untouchable idea is overplayed. Floyd waited him out and now he wants to bank on his skills prevailing against a Manny that had a maximum amount of mileage beforehand. Just another psychological advantage, Floyd is smart. And he is favored for those reasons. His skills and Manny's ko loss. But we gonna see a helluva fight May 2.

I can see Floyd stunning him early then gettin him outta there Manfredy style.
I can see Manny come out guns blazing get a couple knockdown, then take a close/split decision

The likely outcome of Floyd UD isn't as likely to me as an inside the distance win for someone. A clear outcome will be nice.

the key battle is who lands first? mayweathers straight right or pacs straight left in this example:



may was able to land his straight left vs guerrero bec his left foot was placed outside guerreros, if he can do that vs pac then it would seal his victory