BoxRec

Experts and pundits often cite examples from previous fights to explain why they think this fighter or that fighter will prevail or be defeated in an upcoming one. With that in mind, I am starting this thread to get posters' personal breakdowns using the same type of rational. Of course, I will go first.

I like to focus on the person I think will lose in my explanations, so my examples will be Pacquiao fights. It would be easy to pick fights Manny lost, like the first tilt with Morales or JMM cleaning his clock in their 4th fight, but I am going to cite 3 fights that Manny won.

The fights I like to point to in advancing my opinion Mayweather will win (and win big) are the following:

Pac vs. Clotty
Pac vs. Mosley
Pac vs. JMM III

The fight with Clottey proved 2 things IMO- 1) Pac has trouble penetrating a high guard and 2) as Manny tends to get frustrated by such a defense he starts to take more chances, resulting in it being easier to inflict damage on Pac even with a relatively low output. I think we all remember how it looked like Manny had been in a much worse fight than Clottey had when the exact opposite was true. Floyd will fight Manny not with a shoulder roll, but behind a high guard similar to what Clottey used. Only Pac will be dealing with someone much more ready to fire back and fire back with more frequency and accuracy.

The Mosley fight proved that Pac's attack can be neutralized by a good jab. Had Shane been more consistent with his jab (and willing to capitalize on the openings clearly created when he did jab) we would have seen a different fight, one Mosley would have at least gave himself a chance of winning. Floyd jabs both upstairs and downstairs, will constantly change Manny's vision and focus levels. Mayweather will exploit this constantly.

The third fight with Marquez proved that Pac, a decent boxer with great athleticism, can be beaten by someone not as athletic but with a higher degree of boxing skill. Perhaps Manny's biggest problem in this upcoming fight is that, although he may still be the better athlete here, the gap between his athleticism and Mayweather's is nowhere near as large as the gap between his skill and Floyd's. One is a small advantage while the other is huge. JMM was extremely effective countering Pac and I have yet to hear anyone explain rationally why Floyd (bigger, faster, more skilled, and more powerful) will not be at least as successful countering Pac as Juan was.

When you take into account what happened during these fights and some others (Margarito's body attack comes to mind, for example), I think the tea leaves are pointing to a very easy time of it by Floyd. Manny's only chances seem to lie in either him landing that longshot Sunday punch, or Floyd declining to the point that he can't pull the trigger any more. In other words, the hope is 2 chances and they are "slim" and "none" respectively.

koolkc107 wrote:Experts and pundits often cite examples from previous fights to explain why they think this fighter or that fighter will prevail or be defeated in an upcoming one. With that in mind, I am starting this thread to get posters' personal breakdowns using the same type of rational. Of course, I will go first.

I like to focus on the person I think will lose in my explanations, so my examples will be Pacquiao fights. It would be easy to pick fights Manny lost, like the first tilt with Morales or JMM cleaning his clock in their 4th fight, but I am going to cite 3 fights that Manny won.

The fights I like to point to in advancing my opinion Mayweather will win (and win big) are the following:

Pac vs. Clotty
Pac vs. Mosley
Pac vs. JMM III

The fight with Clottey proved 2 things IMO- 1) Pac has trouble penetrating a high guard and 2) as Manny tends to get frustrated by such a defense he starts to take more chances, resulting in it being easier to inflict damage on Pac even with a relatively low output. I think we all remember how it looked like Manny had been in a much worse fight than Clottey had when the exact opposite was true. Floyd will fight Manny not with a shoulder roll, but behind a high guard similar to what Clottey used. Only Pac will be dealing with someone much more ready to fire back and fire back with more frequency and accuracy.

The Mosley fight proved that Pac's attack can be neutralized by a good jab. Had Shane been more consistent with his jab (and willing to capitalize on the openings clearly created when he did jab) we would have seen a different fight, one Mosley would have at least gave himself a chance of winning. Floyd jabs both upstairs and downstairs, will constantly change Manny's vision and focus levels. Mayweather will exploit this constantly.

The third fight with Marquez proved that Pac, a decent boxer with great athleticism, can be beaten by someone not as athletic but with a higher degree of boxing skill. Perhaps Manny's biggest problem in this upcoming fight is that, although he may still be the better athlete here, the gap between his athleticism and Mayweather's is nowhere near as large as the gap between his skill and Floyd's. One is a small advantage while the other is huge. JMM was extremely effective countering Pac and I have yet to hear anyone explain rationally why Floyd (bigger, faster, more skilled, and more powerful) will not be at least as successful countering Pac as Juan was.

When you take into account what happened during these fights and some others (Margarito's body attack comes to mind, for example), I think the tea leaves are pointing to a very easy time of it by Floyd. Manny's only chances seem to lie in either him landing that longshot Sunday punch, or Floyd declining to the point that he can't pull the trigger any more. In other words, the hope is 2 chances and they are "slim" and "none" respectively.

The Clottey fight was a horrible example:
1. In order to stay in a defensive position like that, you have to lower your output not throwing punches which Clottey did. As a result, he sacrificed all offense in order to shut down Manny's offense. Counterproductive because he didn't win a round.

2. Floyd is highly unlikely to employ a high guard like that with both hands the entire fight.

The Mosley argument is valid.

As for the JMM fights, people talk as if Marquez countered Pacquiao with ease forgetting that he took tons of punishment in all of those fights. Actually one of Marquez trademarks and maybe even strengths is that he is willing to be in position to be hit and even take punishment in order to get his counters off. Floyd is not that type of counter puncher. That's my explanation.

And Floyd is no where near the body puncher that Margarito is.

The biggest point I thought I was making with Clottey is this: Manny's increasing frustration in trying to penetrate Joshua's defense led to him becoming a bit reckless at times. Which led to Clottey being able to bust him up a bit even with such a low output. I would argue that Floyd is better at the high guard than Clottey and will throw back a lot more than Clottey did.



And I disagree that JMM willingly "puts himself in a position to be hit". I would say that he just is too old to get out of the way. This is substantiated by the fact that each of the 4 fights, Marquez got hit more than the last. Granted, some of that might have just been familiarity. But, I'd say age was the biggest factor in his increased lack of elusiveness.

In the 3 fights you cite, (depending how you score JMM3) Pacquiao won around 30 out of 36 rounds.

People fail to realise that Pacquiao wins more rounds than Floyd does.


Since he began to move up through the weights:

Lightweight:
9/9 vs Diaz (KO)

Light Welterweight:
2/2 vs Hatton (KO)

Welterweight:
8/8 vs DeLaHoya (rtd)
11/12 vs Cotto (TKO)
12/12 vs Clottey (dec)
12/12 vs Margarito (dec)
12/12 vs Mosley (dec)
5-7/12 vs JMM 3 (dec)
8-11/12 vs Bradley (dec)
4/6 vs JMM 4 (L,KO)
12/12 vs Rios (dec)
8-10/12 vs Bradley 2 (dec)
12/12 vs Algieri (dec)


Looking at that resume from 135lb, it's pretty amazing, that only Marquez has found away to compete with Pacquiao. Even a top 5 p4p ranked guy like Bradley has struggled to win more than few rounds out of 24 he boxed with Pacquiao.

It's hard to think of a fighter who has dominated like that at world level, (not named Klitchko).

Ricky_ wrote:In the 3 fights you cite, (depending how you score JMM3) Pacquiao won around 30 out of 36 rounds.

People fail to realise that Pacquiao wins more rounds than Floyd does.


Since he began to move up through the weights:

Lightweight:
9/9 vs Diaz (KO)

Light Welterweight:
2/2 vs Hatton (KO)

Welterweight:
8/8 vs DeLaHoya (rtd)
11/12 vs Cotto (TKO)
12/12 vs Clottey (dec)
12/12 vs Margarito (dec)
12/12 vs Mosley (dec)
5-7/12 vs JMM 3 (dec)
8-11/12 vs Bradley (dec)
4/6 vs JMM 4 (L,KO)
12/12 vs Rios (dec)
8-10/12 vs Bradley 2 (dec)
12/12 vs Algieri (dec)


Looking at that resume from 135lb, it's pretty amazing, that only Marquez has found away to compete with Pacquiao. Even a top 5 p4p ranked guy like Bradley has struggled to win more than few rounds out of 24 he boxed with Pacquiao.

It's hard to think of a fighter who has dominated like that at world level, (not named Klitchko).

Good point.

But that is exactly why I like to cite fights where weaknesses were exposed in spite of the fighter's success.

These are flaws that tend to not be corrected until they become a problem.

Found this recently.

Some good stuff, although I wish he would have spend some time on Floyd vs lefties.

Good view if you have the time and haven't seen it yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTSJqpOkgRo#t=76

Styles make fights allway will or I should say certain styles work better against other styles good point was Mayweather against leftie's
using past oppenent's like comparing Clotteys style with Mayweather won't paint a picture for one when envisioning what will take place
on fight night between these super talented champion's.

ClivePatrickLyons wrote:Styles make fights allway will or I should say certain styles work better against other styles good point was Mayweather against leftie's
using past oppenent's like comparing Clotteys style with Mayweather won't paint a picture for one when envisioning what will take place
on fight night between these super talented champion's.

No one can be sure what will happen fight night. But, of the two, I think Pac has the bigger job to do.

Put quite simply. it is Manny that is the one who needs to change more of his game to have success.

For Mayweather, it is not a matter of changing so much as it is a matter of dealing with speed he rarely has had to before.

The smart money says that once Floyd has Manny timed, it is pretty much over.

Hence, Pac's job is to make that as difficult as possible...and that means he is going to have to do A LOT of new things.

koolkc107 wrote:

ClivePatrickLyons wrote:Styles make fights allway will or I should say certain styles work better against other styles good point was Mayweather against leftie's
using past oppenent's like comparing Clotteys style with Mayweather won't paint a picture for one when envisioning what will take place
on fight night between these super talented champion's.

No one can be sure what will happen fight night. But, of the two, I think Pac has the bigger job to do.

Put quite simply. it is Manny that is the one who needs to change more of his game to have success.

For Mayweather, it is not a matter of changing so much as it is a matter of dealing with speed he rarely has had to before.

The smart money says that once Floyd has Manny timed, it is pretty much over.

Hence, Pac's job is to make that as difficult as possible...and that means he is going to have to do A LOT of new things.

This!!