BoxRec

I assume we are all on the same page in that no-one is giving Smith a chance of winning on Saturday night so the key question for me from a betting and fight perspective is how Ward will win. Current odds are 8/15 on a Ward stoppage and 13/8 on a Ward points win.

I actually think the points win is reasonably priced. Ward has not stopped anyone except Dawson for a long time and may just coast through this one without getting out of second gear.

Thoughts?

Ward doesn't carry immense power and Smith is nothing if not game. I expect Ward to win every round but it'll probably go the distance.

Ward is far from a puncher but the disparity in class is massive and I think he may try to make a statement after being out so long. I lean towards Smith being broken down and halted, quite possibly in the form of a standing stoppage or corner pullout in which he never goes down, though I wouldn't be shocked if he lasted the distance.

Ward will outclass Smith and stop him after about 6 rounds.

UD wide, he is capable of stoppage, but will most likely bore us all for 12 rounds in one of the most one sided fights any of us have seen a champion in for a while

THEBUTCH wrote:Ward will outclass Smith and stop him after about 6 rounds.

This. The gulf is too big. Smith will be eating shots by round 2 and won't be able to take them all night.

There's a bit of 4/7 about with Ladbrokes for the stoppage. I'm inclined to have a small bet on this at the price. Though will keep stakes very modest.

I guess it ultimately depends on Ward's mood. If he can be bothered going for the stoppage he'll probably get it but he may use this fight to work on a few things technically given how long he has been out plus he may feel he needs the rounds.

I think it will be a cuts, injury stoppage/technical decision. Here's a picture from today's presser, surprised at how much bigger Ward looks, Smith looks about 50 years old as well.

Easily

Ward stoppage for me.

Paul smith has been hand picked to make ward look impressive on his b.e.t debut.

As is clearly visible from the photo ward is a massive super mid and paul is basically a middleweight who can't be arsed dieting not too unlike frankie gavin.

And just to make sure andre gets the job done in style he's given himself an extra 4 pounds just to make his size count that bit more.

Ward will totally outclass smith. Its a mismatch and a poor fight for one of the best p4ps to return in.

Ward should stop Smith despite him not being a big puncher,unless he's deteriated massively since the Rodriguez fight which I doubt will be the case,I don't think Andre will knock him out,he might put him down once or twice but I think it will be Ward's accuracy that finishes Paul off,I can see the ref stepping in or the towel coming in unless Joe retires him between rounds

Smith is brave and will fight to the last but I see a Purdy or Rose scenario,I think will Paul will let his hands go more than they 2 did though

Another thing is the weight,what is it 172lb? Smith was talking about moving down to MW last year so he might feel Ward's power more than most of Andre's previous opponents

I just hope Smith gives it a go and can leave the ring knowing he gave his all,I thought he edged the 1st Abraham fight by a point,he was well beat in the rematch but he did let his hands go at least and hopefully he isn't hesitant in keeping busy,he's never gonna outbox Ward so a high work rate is a must,it'll prove to be his downfall but its do or die

Carl Froch got the shock of his life when he quickly discovered that Ward was not only a much better boxer but also much stronger than he was. If Ward can manhandle the likes of Froch and Kessler two big, strong Supermiddles right 'at the top' of the weight, what is he going to do to Smith who I've always felt would be better suited to Middleweight?

The Catchweight is going to do Paul no favours at all, it will practically be a Lightheavy vs Middle come fight time.

Given how Smith keeps getting these totally undeserved opportunities, it's quite possible after the back and forth between Ward & Golovkin the last few weeks, that an even remotely decent performance from Smith could see him being chosen as Golovkin's 168lbs debut opponent.

If smith makes it through 12 rounds it will say more about Ward than Paul Smith. I don't expect this to go past round 7, and I will be having a few quid on ward by stoppage.

I'm guessing it will be a ref stoppage after smith gets treated as a punchbag from the first bell.

Ward by stoppage inside 9 for me, totally different levels.

Where's the Smigga by KO option in your poll?


But seriously.....
I voted Ward on points (my guess would be 120 - 106) on the basis that Ward isn't an overly agressive fighter or noted puncher and that Smith is a tough bastard.
But the more I think about it the gulf in class will see Ward absolutely school him, land at will and if not properly knock him out, do enough to break his heart of make the ref step in.
I can see Smith looking like a well beaten man come the post fight interview unfortunately

Smith stopped on his feet similar to the degale fight or possibly retired by his corner but within 5 rounds i think
this is much more lobsided than even Broner vs Rees or Alexander vs Purdy

Smith is going to get beaten up across as many rounds as this lasts ... but it's terrific preparation for when he faces Mayweather in his next fight.