BoxRec

There seems to be an odd push, by those in the boxing media, to blame May/Pac PPV on other PPV's failing. Here are the PPV numbers for HBO and Showtime going all the way back to 1998. For the sake of argument I focused on 2007 and beyond, the year Mayweather defeated ODLH to become the PPV king.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay-per-view#Boxing

Since 2007 there have been 7 PPV fights that didn't involve Mayweather or Pacquiao. Four of those seven fights have included Canelo or Cotto. The average buyrate for those seven fights is 366,000

The avg buyrate for Cotto, sans Mayweather or Pac, is 457,000 with his highest coming against Margarito (600,000).

The avg buyrate for Canelo, sans Mayweather, is 325,000 with his highest coming against Angulo (350,000).

Combined they have an avg buyrate of 391,000

Going by their history I don't see how ODLH or RNS can think this fight will reach 1.5 mil. I don't see it reaching 1 mil. The closest fight to a million without Floyd and Pac is Cotto vs Margarito II at 600,000. Neither fighter is charismatic and one doesn't speak english at all. I don't see how they'll be able to pull in the casual fans.

Another aspect is the horrible promotion so far. ODLH and Canelo should've side-stepped any GGG talk instead of coming out and saying he'll only fight him at a catchweight or he won't fight him for a couple of years. The fight would be a lot more intriguing if we knew the winner was going to face GGG. Knowing Canelo will face Bradley next or Cotto will take an easy farewell fight doesn't make this fight as appealing. Cotto is supposedly big in NY/NJ but I've heard that only 3 theaters in that region are showing the fight. This fight will be huge in PR and Mexico, where they can watch for free.

Absolutely agree with everything.

I think both together will generate more money than their average being they're fighting each other and both are more know than their opponents that gave them 350K buys.

It's similar to saying Floyd and Pacquiao's combined average buyrate is around 2mill (It's likely lower than that) so their fight will only make that.

IKSRTFO wrote:I think both together will generate more money than their average being they're fighting each other and both are more know than their opponents that gave them 350K buys.

It's similar to saying Floyd and Pacquiao's combined average buyrate is around 2mill (It's likely lower than that) so their fight will only make that.

True but Floyd and Pacquiao were million PPV buys before they fought each other and they were always #1 and #2 and the most anticipated fight for five years. I think this fight does close to 700,000 and I don't think thats bad.

benion wrote:

IKSRTFO wrote:I think both together will generate more money than their average being they're fighting each other and both are more know than their opponents that gave them 350K buys.

It's similar to saying Floyd and Pacquiao's combined average buyrate is around 2mill (It's likely lower than that) so their fight will only make that.

True but Floyd and Pacquiao were million PPV buys before they fought each other and they were always #1 and #2 and the most anticipated fight for five years. I think this fight does close to 700,000 and I don't think thats bad.

That is true but 700K isn't a bad night for them. Floyd Pacquiao produced 4.4 mil buys when their previous fights probably didn't produce 1.5 mil combined. So IMHO, I think Canelo Cotto, which is likely going to be a firecracker will be at least 800K

Although I won't be one of them, I can see 700-900 buys as a realistic number. 50/50 fight in most people's eyes, plus the Mexican/Puerto Rican rivalry. If it goes over 1 mil I won't be shocked.

benion wrote:There seems to be an odd push, by those in the boxing media, to blame May/Pac PPV on other PPV's failing. Here are the PPV numbers for HBO and Showtime going all the way back to 1998. For the sake of argument I focused on 2007 and beyond, the year Mayweather defeated ODLH to become the PPV king.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay-per-view#Boxing

Since 2007 there have been 7 PPV fights that didn't involve Mayweather or Pacquiao. Four of those seven fights have included Canelo or Cotto. The average buyrate for those seven fights is 366,000

The avg buyrate for Cotto, sans Mayweather or Pac, is 457,000 with his highest coming against Margarito (600,000).

The avg buyrate for Canelo, sans Mayweather, is 325,000 with his highest coming against Angulo (350,000).

Combined they have an avg buyrate of 391,000

Going by their history I don't see how ODLH or RNS can think this fight will reach 1.5 mil. I don't see it reaching 1 mil. The closest fight to a million without Floyd and Pac is Cotto vs Margarito II at 600,000. Neither fighter is charismatic and one doesn't speak english at all. I don't see how they'll be able to pull in the casual fans.

Another aspect is the horrible promotion so far. ODLH and Canelo should've side-stepped any GGG talk instead of coming out and saying he'll only fight him at a catchweight or he won't fight him for a couple of years. The fight would be a lot more intriguing if we knew the winner was going to face GGG. Knowing Canelo will face Bradley next or Cotto will take an easy farewell fight doesn't make this fight as appealing. Cotto is supposedly big in NY/NJ but I've heard that only 3 theaters in that region are showing the fight. This fight will be huge in PR and Mexico, where they can watch for free.

Mayweather's bout with Maidana prior to Manny nabbed over 900K buys, and Manny's bout with Algeri nabbed around 400K. So, judging by those numbers, Mayweather/Pacquiao should never have come close to the numbers they did.

I have a feeling Cotto/Canelo will do extremely well. I'm thinking 1.5 - 2 mil.

An interesting note on Canelo/Cotto from Dave Meltzer's latest Wrestling Observer Newsletter...

http://members.f4wonline.com/wrestling- ... ats-rousey

...The 11/21 PPV show headlined by Canelo Alvarez vs. Miguel Cotto is a major sign of the future of boxing. If the show does as well as promoters are predicting, or even close, than any panic that boxing is dead in the U.S. after Mayweather/Pacquiao is over. But if the biggest matchup not involving the two biggest names doesn't do at least relatively strong numbers, and doesn't attract significant general public interest, boxing going forward is going to sputter. Boxing hasn't had a big PPV since the record-setting Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight. Mayweather vs. Andre Berto did a shockingly low number, said to be well under 550,000 buys. The last major PPV, with Gennady Golovkin's debut on PPV against David Lemieux on 10/12, did 150,000 buys. With the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico backdrop, promoters are predicting 1.5 million to 2 million buys. If it even comes close, and Alvarez wins (the key because Cotto is on his way out and Alvarez is expected to be the new big PPV star with his strong appeal to the Mexican-American fan base), they'll have a new superstar with the needed big money drawing power...