BoxRec

In terms of the betting odds for the Brook-Spence Jr. fight, 'NetBet' rate Errol as being 70.6% certain (5/12) to defeat the champion, with the British underdog having an implied probability of just 38.5% (8/5) with the same betting website to emerge victorious.

These betting odds appear to reflect the expert predictions that I’ve reviewed:

• Sugar Ray Leonard - Errol Spence Jr.
• Floyd Mayweather Jr. - Errol Spence Jr.
• Keith Thurman - 50/50
• Freddie Roach - Errol Spence Jr.
• Danny Garcia - Errol Spence Jr.
• Shawn Porter - Errol Spence Jr.
• Andre Berto - Errol Spence Jr.
• Shane Mosely - Errol Spence Jr.
• Terrence Crawford - Errol Spence Jr.
• Timothy Bradley - Errol Spence Jr.
• Paulie Malignaggi - 50/50
• Teddy Atlas - Errol Spence Jr.
• Demetrius Andrade - Kell Brook
• Abel Sanchez - Kell Brook
• Amir Khan - Errol Spence Jr.
• Virgil Hunter - Errol Spence Jr.
• John David Jackson - Errol Spence Jr.
• Mikey Garcia - Errol Spence Jr.
• Badou Jack - Errol Spence Jr.
• Robert Garcia - Errol Spence Jr.
• Chris Algieri - Errol Spence Jr.
• Lamont Peterson - Errol Spence Jr.
• Gervonta Davis - 50/50
• Juan Manuel Marquez - Kell Brook

Therefore, it seems that Kell Brook is considered as a pretty huge underdog against Errol Spence Jr. (almost to the point of it being considered a mismatch).

Should Errol Spence Jr. be considered a dead-cert to beat Kell Brook or do you think that the American is simply another hype job arriving on British shores possessing a huge reputation (like Gerald McClellan, Jeff Lacy and Lucian Bute) that will ultimately get his ass handed to him?

Thoughts?

The experts opinion is very dominated by Americans, which will effect there assessment imo. Just like the English for brook. Theirs home support for both (not always Amir Khan), but then we also know more of our own fighter.

I don't know that particular bookie but last I checked William hill, an English bookie, had spence favourite too. So I've got to respect spences chances being broadly honest.

To answer your question spence is far from a cert to win this fight imo. I would be supporting brook anyway, but I have to admit the way he's been written off by a lot on here makes me want him to win more.

We shall see in a few days

Also the "expert" predictions don't tell the whole story as how many of them actually said it with complete confidence, I've rarely been less confident in predicting an outcome of a fight!

samdance wrote:Also the "expert" predictions don't tell the whole story as how many of them actually said it with complete confidence, I've rarely been less confident in predicting an outcome of a fight!

The experts expressed their opinions as to whom they would believe would win this fight. None of them dismissed Brook’s chances, but nearly every single one of them predicted a victory for Errol Spence Jr.

I'd be interested to see what Froch, Bellew, hamed, frankie Gavin, Joshua, fury etc are going to pick

They're all pretty much American, of course most of them will go for of of the most 'exciting American prospects.' Go through the whole of the matchroom stable, the will all answer Brook.

Yes the opinion of bookies shadows over experts however some interesting choices are made. I personally believe spence as the better contender.

To add a bit of context.

Mayweather going for spence

The article I've read is sky sports

Long story short says errols a hell of a fighter, gave him good work sparring. His best chance is to take the fight late. Kell Brooks a great fighter did a great job vs ggg.

Doesn't really make much reference as to who he thinks will win. The article title is slightly misleading on sky that he's going with spence

Ossyrules wrote:I'd be interested to see what Froch, Bellew, hamed, frankie Gavin, Joshua, fury etc are going to pick

Johnny Nelson favours Kell Brook.

Adam Smith (Head of Sky Sports’ Boxing) picks Errol Spence Jr.

I believe that I watched a video of Carl Froch favouring Errol Spence Jr, but I can’t find it now.

Tony Bellew’s tone seems to strongly suggest that he’s going with the underdog, but he hasn’t verbally stated his prediction yet, so I could be wrong about this.

The best "expert" opinion to find would be Glenn mcclory, hopefully sober.

See who he picks and then bank on the opposite happening

Betting odds are close. Most of "experts" listed by fergusg have an agenda.

Ossyrules wrote:The best "expert" opinion to find would be Glenn mcclory, hopefully sober.

See who he picks and then bank on the opposite happening

The notorious David Beckham/Mick Jagger effect.

Boxing is full of so many unpredictable elements that championship fight predictions are only slightly better than a guess. The recent GGG, AJ and Bellew fights demonstrate the precarious nature of predictions. Clifton Mitchell actually called the Bellew fight!

The surest eye might be the bookmakers. Money has a way of focussing the mind on the data that is available.

Spence has done everything right so far and has looked great doing it. If he gets beaten he'll still be labelled another hype job which is unfair. Brook is a big strong welter and has good skills himself. He's by far Spences best opponent. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Personally I'm a big Brook fan and want him to win but fear the worst. It really is a top fight though

I think it's a super tight fight, can't get my head around people giving Brook no chance, I think it will go to points, be very close and we might see a "home town" decision if it's very close. Hope Brook wins, love seeing yanks get put in their place.

Brook was the underdog against Porter too. I remember Americans hyping the hell out of Porter and saying he was going to KO Brook because of what happened in the Senchenko fight.

I remember that a Ring magazine experts' poll was 21-0 Porter, though many of those polled suggested that it was closely matched.

https://www.ringtv.com/351831-who-wins- ... ell-brook/

I’ve updated my list of expert predictions, which now only has eight people from the 54 that were polled favouring Kell Brook to successfully defend his IBF world welterweight title against Errol Spence Jr.:

• Sugar Ray Leonard - Errol Spence Jr.
• Floyd Mayweather Jr. - Errol Spence Jr.
• Keith Thurman - Undecided
• Freddie Roach - Errol Spence Jr.
• Danny Garcia - Errol Spence Jr.
• Shawn Porter - Errol Spence Jr.
• Andre Berto - Errol Spence Jr.
• Shane Mosely - Errol Spence Jr.
• Terrence Crawford - Errol Spence Jr.
• Timothy Bradley - Errol Spence Jr.
• Paulie Malignaggi - Undecided
• Teddy Atlas - Errol Spence Jr.
• Demetrius Andrade - Kell Brook
• Abel Sanchez - Kell Brook
• Amir Khan - Errol Spence Jr.
• Virgil Hunter - Errol Spence Jr.
• John David Jackson - Errol Spence Jr.
• Mikey Garcia - Errol Spence Jr.
• Badou Jack - Errol Spence Jr.
• Robert Garcia - Errol Spence Jr.
• Chris Algieri - Errol Spence Jr.
• Lamont Peterson - Errol Spence Jr.
• Gervonta Davis - Undecided
• Juan Manuel Marquez - Kell Brook
• Kenny Adams - Errol Spence Jr.
• Eric Bottjer - Errol Spence Jr.
• Lucian Bute - Errol Spence Jr.
• Robert Diaz - Errol Spence Jr.
• Cameron Dunkin - Errol Spence Jr.
• Kathy Duva - Undecided
• Norm Frauenheim - Errol Spence Jr.
• Doug Fischer - Kell Brook
• Jeffrey Freeman - Errol Spence Jr.
• Brad Goodman - Errol Spence Jr.
• Tom Gray - Kell Brook
• Robert Guerrero - Errol Spence Jr.
• Ricky Hatton - Kell Brook
• Kay Koroma - Errol Spence Jr.
• Gary Lockett - Kell Brook
• Duke McKenzie - Errol Spence Jr.
• Jolene Mizzone - Errol Spence Jr.
• Diego Morilla - Errol Spence Jr.
• Marty Mulcahey - Errol Spence Jr.
• Scott Quigg - Undecided
• John J. Raspanti - Errol Spence Jr.
• Cliff Rold - Errol Spence Jr.
• Michael Rosenthal - Errol Spence Jr.
• Ronnie Shields - Errol Spence Jr.
• Shakur Stevenson - Errol Spence Jr.
• Dominic Verdin - Errol Spence Jr.
• Michael Woods - Errol Spence Jr.
• Johnny Nelson - Kell Brook
• Adam Smith - Errol Spence Jr.
• Carl Froch - Errol Spence Jr.

Therefore, only 15% of the 54 experts that were polled actually believe that Kell Brook is capable of defeating Errol Spence Jr.