BoxRec

How will Canelo Alvarez beat Sergey Kovalev ?

Power ... A Canelo moving up is going to out punch Kovalev at 175 ?

I haven't picked who I think will win but I think this is nice match-up.

Canelo defense is impressive. If he can make Kovalev miss, make Kovalev extend, make Kovalev lose balance then I think that will be a key.

I consider Canelo a SMW. I believe he's stronger then Kovalev in the upper body and will be far more effective on the inside in terms of strength and skills. If he can make Kovalev miss his long punches (such as jab and straight right), he can maybe out muscle and out-punch kovalev on the inside. Crowd Kovalev, put the pressure on him and wear him out.

My thoughts are Kovalev is more rangy then Canelo. Canelo imo at times swings and misses. He did this in the second Golovkin fight however Golovkin is also a master of distance himself. We all saw Mayweather school him on range although that was a long time ago. If Kovalev has lost this ability or was not as good as I thought then he is in for a seriously long night.

Look at the size of them.
Canelo will thicken up but Kovalev towers over him.
How is a Canelo jab going to play out ?

Unless the data is wrong, Kovalev is only 1 cm shorter than Daniel Jacobs.

Canelo has a jab but I don't see him using it much. He's a hooker and likes it that way. Maybe he'll pull it out if he is struggling with the range. But he hardly used it with Golovkin from memory, preferring to throw flashy hooks.

Kovalev isn't boxing Jacobs.
See the press conference ?

Expecting Kovalev to gas out ?

Evander wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 01:37 Kovalev isn't boxing Jacobs.
See the press conference ?

Yes but it seems Canelo has dealt with height discrepancies before. Like I said, Jacobs is only 1cm smaller than Kovalev. Canelo was able to land to the head without problem. I don't see the height being a huge factor.

lazboy wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 01:59

Evander wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 01:37 Kovalev isn't boxing Jacobs.
See the press conference ?

Yes but it seems Canelo has dealt with height discrepancies before. Like I said, Jacobs is only 1cm smaller than Kovalev. Canelo was able to land to the head without problem. I don't see the height being a huge factor.

Kovalev's forearm looked bigger than Canelo's head.

Canelo is gonna slip Kova's jab and work that soft body all night. I guess.

With all we know why would Kovalev not top up the body defense ?
Ward and Yarde tested it.
What can Canelo really go for other than a boxing style win, he isn't going to knock Kovalev out unless Sergey is damaged coming in.
Is Canelo a known boxer/puncher who can win a decision and move up and sneak a win over Kovalev ?
I'm on the fence for now.

Canelo will very likely be patient, by trying to use head movement from the outside to avoid Kovalev’s underrated jabs and then force his way on the inside throwing lightning-fast eye-catching combinations, which will inevitably include thunderous hooks to the body.

If Kovalev’s power and jabs cannot deter the Mexican (and let’s face it, even Golovkin struggled to force Canelo to retreat during their rematch), then I expect Sergey to tire during the championship rounds.

Kovalev’s level of ambition will determine whether he’s willing to go out on his shield to avoid a points’ defeat by trying desperately to force the stoppage, or whether he’ll do his upmost to last the distance and lose by a close decision.

Regardless, at this point in time, Canelo’s engine must be better than Kovalev’s and so I expect the Mexican’s main strategy will be to take the Russian into deep waters and then drown him.

He might not beat him. Kov is a dangerous dude.

If it goes to the cards I think we all know who will win. One judge already has it about 118-110.

Canelo can defeat Kovalev only on points. Kovalev May win by knockout. This is boxing. It’s hard to give an accurate forecast in this battle.

Boxing-2017 wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 07:26 Canelo can defeat Kovalev only on points. Kovalev May win by knockout. This is boxing. It’s hard to give an accurate forecast in this battle.

Whilst predicting the outcome may be difficult, it’s easy to anticipate the aftermath, because if Canelo wins, he’ll be accused of cherry-picking a past-his-prime shot opponent, but if he loses, then he’ll be mocked for being no good and losing to an old faded veteran.

It’s a no-win situation for Canelo regardless the outcome.

Like we all know, the scorecards are already in with Canelo winning on points unless Kovalev knocks down in at least 3 rounds or knocks him out.

Canelo won't even have to land punches to win he needs only to throw them and the judges will see him winning.

That most certainly is the promoter's plan anyway.

IF Canelo wins he will do so by a decision he doesn't deserve. I don't see him legitimately beating Kovalev, but a robbery in Canelo's favor is so likely it's damn near expected.

40% chance Canelo wins by Robbery. 50% chance Kovalev wins in such clear fashion they can't take it from him (Knockout or multiple knockdowns on the way to a lopsided decision is the only possible way this happens) or 10% that Canelo ACTUALLY beats him fairly.

Drugs and judges

Evander wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 01:00 Look at the size of them.
Canelo will thicken up but Kovalev towers over him.
How is a Canelo jab going to play out ?

The same way a Pacquiao jab plays out against taller opponents.

Enlightened-One wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 08:00

Boxing-2017 wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 07:26 Canelo can defeat Kovalev only on points. Kovalev May win by knockout. This is boxing. It’s hard to give an accurate forecast in this battle.

Whilst predicting the outcome may be difficult, it’s easy to anticipate the aftermath, because if Canelo wins, he’ll be accused of cherry-picking a past-his-prime shot opponent, but if he loses, then he’ll be mocked for being no good and losing to an old faded veteran.

It’s a no-win situation for Canelo regardless the outcome.

No it's not. If he wins legitimate, he deserves full credit and will get it from me at least.

Plus he's making millions of dollars win or lose. That's not what I'd call a no-win situation.

IKSRTFO wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 09:52

Evander wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 01:00 Look at the size of them.
Canelo will thicken up but Kovalev towers over him.
How is a Canelo jab going to play out ?

The same way a Pacquiao jab plays out against taller opponents.

Canelo WILL Be outjabbed in this fight. That's a guarantee. Whether or not the jab alone will dictate the fight though is tough to say. If he can inside Kov's jab, and work the body with consistency it'll be interesting down the stretch. If he can't, and it's a jabbing contest. He'll lose that, but the judges will say he didn't.

Kovalev can't be content to just look ok in the fight. He has to KICK CANELO'S ASS. Canelo can look just ok, and he'll win.

Evander wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 01:00 Look at the size of them.
Canelo will thicken up but Kovalev towers over him.
How is a Canelo jab going to play out ?

A jab is never a big punch for him. He's going to have to rip the body.

Onetimeonly wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 10:13

Evander wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 01:00 Look at the size of them.
Canelo will thicken up but Kovalev towers over him.
How is a Canelo jab going to play out ?

A jab is never a big punch for him. He's going to have to rip the body.

Yeah the only time I remember Canelo's jab carrying a fight was the Cotto fight. Usually it's not one of his defining weapons.

gilgamesh wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 10:16

Onetimeonly wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 10:13
A jab is never a big punch for him. He's going to have to rip the body.

Yeah the only time I remember Canelo's jab carrying a fight was the Cotto fight. Usually it's not one of his defining weapons.

Which unintentionally makes the point. Cotto was a top notch jabber as it was his dominant hand.

Bandog wrote: ↑23 Sep 2019, 07:26 If it goes to the cards I think we all know who will win. One judge already has it about 118-110.

quote=danconnollyeire post_id=5243159 time=1569246720 user_id=51249]
Drugs and judges
[/quote]

No mystery here, if he's still standing after 12
- Canelo wins.

The question that we should be asking is
"Can Kovalev avoid certain defeat by stopping Canelo?"

Go Krusher, one last time!
Go for glory, and let your wife worry about how to spend all that money. Screw all the hidden clauses, and do it for the fans.