BoxRec

gregregegg wrote: ↑09 Feb 2020, 18:53 Hard to have a problem with round 1 and 2 seeing as before the fight he said he just wanted to move a bit and jab. He even claimed he wanted to go the distance for him and so one of the fighteres he trains could fight the guy in a few weeks. Interesting that he did decide to turn up at round 3.
He said eddie told him at the start of the third to finnish it. did that change his mind? did he just get board of flicking jabs? Or are a few doncaster lads 50k deep in round 3. hard to tell really.

Stuartd75 wrote: ↑09 Feb 2020, 23:36 I've worked in the betting industry for over 20years and there is definitely something very suspicious about the betting patterns here. He was matched at 4/6 on Betfair for £600 to win in rd3. The general price the bookies opened at was 9/4. This just doesn't happen unless someone knows something.

The maths (slightly simplified) is that DA was 1/100 to win the fight. That roughly equates to him having a 99% chance of winning the fight so in order to get the round betting you would distribute that 99% over the rounds and a points decision. So if you say he had a 75% chance of a ko and 24% chance of winning on points you would then distribute the 75% across the rounds. If there was equal chance per round that would be 12%ish per round but really the earlier rounds are generally more likely in a fight like this so it might be 30% rd1, 20% rd2, 15% rd3 etc etc. 4/6 is the equivalent of 60%. That clearly makes no sense and nobody logical would bet it unless there was serious information suggesting it was very likely to happen. In a relatively efficient market like betfair for nobody to be offering a larger price suggests fairly significant business has been done at larger prices. The poster above is correct in saying only 9k was matched but actually that's a lot more than is usual for an undercard fight on a show like this and in itself is significant. To be honest if I saw business of over £25 on round betting on a fight like this from punters I didn't know I'd be suspicious and I'd say that's what's happened. The market these days is so finely tuned to this kinda stuff that even a grand spread between 10-15 firns would be hard to get on unless you were already a known mug punter. I'd say it was probably a pretty naive mistake from a bunch of youngish people but nevertheless if they are connected to Allen at all or are licensed both he and they may well get hammered.

Given the health stuff after the Price fight it sounds like the board may well be looking for an excuse to not license Allen anyway and this will be playing into their hands.

Stuarty wrote: ↑09 Feb 2020, 17:10 Hope you manage to get your money mate. I only seen the stoppage but sounds well sketchy.

Ricky wrote: ↑10 Feb 2020, 03:37

Stuarty wrote: ↑09 Feb 2020, 17:10 Hope you manage to get your money mate. I only seen the stoppage but sounds well sketchy.

Sketchy is putting it mildly. Allen doesn't throw a punch for 2 rounds, it actually looks like a piss take, like 2 guys out the back garden at a house party pretending to box for a laugh. Then in round 3 Allen actually throws a meaningful shot and Darch folds; but rewatching it again he seems to go down a bit easy and just quits really.

Apparently Darch & Allen had breakfast together on the morning of the fight.

Have a watch at it and see what you think:

Stuartd75 wrote: ↑10 Feb 2020, 05:50 If be surprised if method of victory bets would go unpaid but round betting certainly seems suspect (that's not to say that you as an Individual shouldn't get paid but I get payment being delayed pending inquiry etc)

TheGoods wrote: ↑10 Feb 2020, 05:34 However £50 at 3/1 Allen R3 is still down as an ‘open bet’ with them, which is a bit odd as they have settled my Allen R1 as a loser.

Stuartd75 wrote: ↑10 Feb 2020, 06:21 Yeah. That's fundamentally wrong imo and an area where the industry let's itself down. You refund losers in this case if it's considered to be dodgy.

Ricky wrote: ↑10 Feb 2020, 03:37

Stuarty wrote: ↑09 Feb 2020, 17:10 Hope you manage to get your money mate. I only seen the stoppage but sounds well sketchy.

gregregegg wrote: ↑10 Feb 2020, 06:47

Stuartd75 wrote: ↑10 Feb 2020, 06:21 Yeah. That's fundamentally wrong imo and an area where the industry let's itself down. You refund losers in this case if it's considered to be dodgy.

hard to refund the losers if you eventually have to pay the winners. And you kinda have to do it for all bets not just round bets. easier said than done in bigger fights.

ShadrachSimmo wrote: ↑10 Feb 2020, 11:08

gregregegg wrote: ↑10 Feb 2020, 06:47

hard to refund the losers if you eventually have to pay the winners. And you kinda have to do it for all bets not just round bets. easier said than done in bigger fights.

The Edwards -Martinez bout had similar sh1t with it. Bookies paying out on the tko before it was swiftly changed to a NC thanks to Eddie. Skybet paid out thankfully but I know others didn’t.

chiggsy wrote: ↑09 Feb 2020, 19:05 That fight was as queer as a bottle of crisps......deffo bent

Ricky wrote: ↑09 Feb 2020, 17:03 So in the lead up to this I tipped a few folk to bet on Allen to win in round 1. Darch hasn't lasted 2 rounds in any of his last 6 fights. It was short odds at 5/2, but I put £100 on it.

Allen then comes out and refuses to throw a single right hand. He just tip toes around, flicking a jab here & there.

During the 2nd round, Allen to win by KO/TKO moves to 2/3 so I put a heavy bet on it to cover my original loss.

Allen does nothing in r2.

Allen comes out in r3, throws a couple of digs and makes short work of DD.

My bet was paid out last night, but today both my bets have been returned to "unsettled" status, with my pay out retracted.

Several bookmakers are withholding paying out as the result is subject to investigation, some very odd betting patterns distorted the market to make round 3 much shorter odds than any other round. Rumour has it a 50k bet came in on Allen for r3.

Allen very clearly carried Darch for 2 rounds then just bowled him over at the start of r3, this fight stinks to the high heavens.