BoxRec

12 Rounds at 160(MW)
There is the MW Duran of 1983,who took Hagler the entire 15 round distance,and was slightly up on 2 of the 3 cards after 12,only to fade into survival mode for the remaining 3 rounds,thus forth,being out pointed by the Great Marvelous Marvin Hagler,but losing with a definitive aura of Dignity and respect from boxing fans,both the appreciative ones,As well as the critical Mocker type ones.

Then there is the Duran of the early part of 1989,who had himself a brief re-emmergence phase,getting into extra top condition,4 months away from turning 38, and getting the upset victory over "Hearns" (Conquer) "Iran the Blade Barkley".
I see an interesting contrast in this hypo. Definitively 2 different versions of Duran. Imo,the Duran of the Hagler bout would grit and grind out a close decision win over Pavlik, while the 1989 version probably has Alot of issues dealing with the younger stronger naturally much bigger foe in Pavlik, but nevertheless earns enough respect for his efforts to be given a Gift Draw.

Duran was past it when he moved to middleweight and beyond. He still has some very good performances but was not the killer he was at lightweight.
This is anyone's fight. A toss up.
Duran could suck up another miracle great performance at 38-40 years old or he could lose.
P4p Duran is right near the top and Pavlik doesn't come close. But head to head when Duran was a middleweight it could be interesting

Pavlik seemed better than Barkley. It would be close, but I'd favor Kelly. Anyway, Duran's win wouldn't be surprising.

I'd give Kelly the slight edge due to size and strength advantage, and he's not too shabby a boxer, but a Duran victory wouldn't shock me none.

Draw