BoxRec

what do you consider before betting which fighter to put your money on?

If the betting websites overwhelmingly consider a bout to be at least a borderline mismatch, but my own opinion, the thoughts of reputable boxing insiders and also the expectation of the forum is that the fight is likely to be very competitive, to the point an upset would fail to shock anyone, then I always place a bet on the underdog.

And I tend to do this even when I slightly favour the betting favourite to emerge victorious.

My betting criteria may sound extreme, but the situation I’ve described happens surprisingly often.

I very rarely place bets on betting favourites, because the monetary returns from a successful prediction are usually trivial to the point it’s not worth the initial risk.

The first thing I'd check would be to find a situation where the home fans are so blinkered that they leave the bookmakers little choice other than to tilt the odds in favour of the home fighter.

Especially where the home fighter has little chance of actually winning.

Just in case the home fighter won.

The bookmakers rarely take that kind of a hit.

If we look at the greatest upsets, then it's fair to say that most of them can be accounted for by injuries, weight making issues, outside distractions etc

Even in those 'upsets' I would guess that the younger fighter usually wins.

The mathematical permutations are huge and it's not easy to factor in all of the other variables, such as styles making fights.

For the really big fights you have to also factor in the Vegas factor. For example, we already know that Canelo will get a 4 round start against GGG as he did against Bivol.

Given all of that complexity I'd suggest that it's best to bet on those fights where a stoppage is possible.

This usually means the heavyweights.

I would guess that a lot of people made good money in the Fury v Wilder series, even if they got robbed in the first.

There's also this thing called hedge betting which I don't understand, but it seems to be a way of minimising your losses more than anything else.

Anyway, here's a guy who's studied all of this in far greater detail, and I'm sure that even he'd tell you that it's far from easy to come out ahead.

Lets say I place 1000$ on some fight and win what maybe 500$ so now I have 1500$ and am 500$ richer than I was before. Is this somehow going to improve my life? Should I feel good about myself and the thrill of winning after something like this? Or that justice has been served and that the evil casino has lost money while my wallet that has the moral highground has gotten fatter?

Or maybe this is just such a fun thing to do or something. Maybe not that fun if I lose the 1000$'s.

Sometimes I really can't bet until the weigh in.
Especially for the SMW and below weights. If I'm seeing sunken eyes, and hollowed cheeks- and this is even more important on the over 30's- then I'm probably going to abstain from betting if its the guy I was picking.
With thw heavyweight guys- if a fighter keeps the loose fitting gear on in open workouts (like Ruiz in AJ Ruiz 2) then I'm wary. Guys in shape usually show off the fact. Guys who aren't don't.
Plenty of other things come into it too, but those are some of the more obvious ones that can sway my bets leading up to a fight.

If it’s points I consider the home and away. Basically never pic the away corner, too much heart break.

If it’s knockout with a prospect vs journeyman I pick a couple of rounds earlier in England, because they tend to stop them first clean combo.

I’ll generally favour the guy that’s fought high level and lost close over the guy that’s record looks pretty. (Very extream example I’d bet on chisora over lovejoy)

I’ll also never bet on anything below 1.30 ish. And rarly bet on things under evens. If the fighter I want to bet on is 1.20 then I’ll bet method or round. I’m only throwing 5-10 bucks at a time, no point winning and getting 2 bucks profit…