BoxRec

So, I'm trying to compile a thorough list of indicators that would make you think boxers are more likely to win/lose. Fighter A is the betting favorite and Fighter B is the betting outsider.

So far, I have the below, but would love you all to name some more.

Win Indicators for Fighter A

Is the promoter's fighter.
Fighting in home town/city.
Fighting in home country.
Has beaten better than Fighter B.

Loss Indicators for Fighter B

Has been brought in to lose
Has lost to worse than Fighter A
Passed their prime
Had a long career
Lots of miles on the clock
Has recent losses
Has stoppage losses
Has never won a fight for the promoter
No/little amateur experience
Fighting at higher than their normal weight
Has suffered knockdowns in previous fights

And now in reverse....

Loss Indicators for Fighter A
Has been knocked down in the past
Has been gifted decisions
Weighed in at career heaviest


Win Indicators for Fighter B

Southpaw
Is a late replacement
Has a style Fighter A struggles with.
Has lost by SD and/or MD previously
Is a PED cheat

Another win indicator for fighter B: fighter A is hacking off his promotor/the fans with his antics/words.

"Has been gifted decisions" this can be a win indicator if the fighter is with the promoter and/or at home.

"Lots of miles on the clock" - how would you define this?

Ezzard wrote: ↑26 Sep 2023, 09:31 "Lots of miles on the clock" - how would you define this?

Been in a lot of tough fights.

Define "lots" and "tough"?

Ezzard wrote: ↑26 Sep 2023, 09:43 Define "lots" and "tough"?

Tough = Stoppage losses and fights where a boxer has taken heavy punishment.
Lots is harder to define,

You're a very knowledgeable poster, Ezz. So if you could add some, that would be great.

Are you trying to formulate a predictive indicator to beat the bookies?

Ezzard wrote: ↑26 Sep 2023, 10:04 Are you trying to formulate a predictive indicator to beat the bookies?

No, it's just something I'm interested in. Boxing is such a unique sport. I can't think of another sport, which is quite so corrupt.

jwfg wrote: ↑26 Sep 2023, 10:09

Ezzard wrote: ↑26 Sep 2023, 10:04 Are you trying to formulate a predictive indicator to beat the bookies?

No, it's just something I'm interested in. Boxing is such a unique sport. I can't think of another sport, which is quite so corrupt.

The most corrupt sport will be the one that makes the most money.

Ezzard wrote: ↑26 Sep 2023, 10:18

jwfg wrote: ↑26 Sep 2023, 10:09

Ezzard wrote: ↑26 Sep 2023, 10:04 Are you trying to formulate a predictive indicator to beat the bookies?

No, it's just something I'm interested in. Boxing is such a unique sport. I can't think of another sport, which is quite so corrupt.

The most corrupt sport will be the one that makes the most money.

The NFL is a huge, but the officiating at games is for the most part, tip-top. Pretty much every week, boxing officials perform woefully.

On small-hall shows:

Fighter's shorts are multi-coloured with all manner of vulgar sequins, tassles and sponsors' logos, like a Christmas tree decorated by a blindfolded toddler - win indicator

Fighter's shorts are plain, no logos, no tassles - loss indicator. Multiply up by the following factors to increase the loss indicator - shorts don't fit; shorts are made of a towelling material; shorts look as though they are not actually boxing shorts.

Although, on the win indicator, it's not always reliable - https://boxrec.com/en/box-pro/704533 went for red velour in his win last Sunday at the Athena in Leicester - a kind of David Niven crushed velvet smoking jacket impression. All credit for not following the herd.

Fighter accompanied on a long (interminable) ringwalk by a rapper who hasn't mastered the art of rapping while walking and so his song comes over the PA system in fits and starts yet this doesn't deter him finishing all 20 verses of his song whilst the opponent looks on with increasing bemusement - win indicator

If a fighter has a rattail haircut, the odds of him winning increase by 10%

But If a fighter has a mullet, the odds of him losing are close to 77%.

You're really getting good when you can see the upsets coming.

I've only done that a handful of times myself over the years, but there's times when I've been quite confident in the upset happening.

Glen Johnson vs Antonio Tarver (the 1st one)
Winky Wright vs Shane Mosley (mild upset, but an upset according to the bookies)
Yordenis Ugas vs Manny Pacquiao

I'm sure there's a handful of others, but those are ones that stick out in my mind.

There's so many factors. Toughness, Skill set, style matchup, Hometown/Region (that shouldn't effect anything, but it often does), Officials (ditto).

There's sometimes when I feel like it's a gimme. Like when I watched Joyce vs Zhang, I never had any doubt whatsoever that Zhang would win the rematch so you got ones like that that are like free money.

I think to develop the right eyes to be able to break down Boxing at a high level. You have to truly love the sport, and be fascinated by all the subtleties and nuances, and then after some years of devotion like that, You'll be able to pick up on things that is over the heads of your average sports fan.

gilgamesh wrote: ↑03 Oct 2023, 13:28 You're really getting good when you can see the upsets coming.

I've only done that a handful of times myself over the years, but there's times when I've been quite confident in the upset happening.

Glen Johnson vs Antonio Tarver (the 1st one)
Winky Wright vs Shane Mosley (mild upset, but an upset according to the bookies)
Yordenis Ugas vs Manny Pacquiao

I'm sure there's a handful of others, but those are ones that stick out in my mind.

There's so many factors. Toughness, Skill set, style matchup, Hometown/Region (that shouldn't effect anything, but it often does), Officials (ditto).

There's sometimes when I feel like it's a gimme. Like when I watched Joyce vs Zhang, I never had any doubt whatsoever that Zhang would win the rematch so you got ones like that that are like free money.

I think to develop the right eyes to be able to break down Boxing at a high level. You have to truly love the sport, and be fascinated by all the subtleties and nuances, and then after some years of devotion like that, You'll be able to pick up on things that is over the heads of your average sports fan.

I've seen a good number of upsets coming. Then there are the times where I make a really strong case for someone while talking to someone about the fight and then talk myself out of the upset. Joshua-Ruiz is the classic example. I was talking to the other boxing fan at my workplace, telling him that Ruiz was lots better than his physic, ran Parker close, good chin, wasn't afraid to let his hands go, hit hard and was a short notice replacement. The guy laughed at me, and I said, "I'm not saying he's going to win."

I'm doing some research into how much 'help' Fighter A gets when he fights for the promoter against fighter B who doesn't. I'm going to break it down by promoter, so Matchroom, Queensbury, Boxxer, Saurland etc in the UK. Then the same in the US, Japan, Germany etc. If a Matchroom fighter boxes on their card in the US, are they less likely to get the decision on foreign soil. I'm also looking into home country advantage and home city/town advantage. Then the effect of styles in different countries, do US judges really prefer boxers who come forward?

I find it easier when I don't have a dog in the fight, that way I don't bring my own prejudices into it.

being aware of career trajectory is a huge part of picking upsets. ones like ugas-pac you can catch like that

margaret thatcher wrote: ↑03 Oct 2023, 15:35 being aware of career trajectory is a huge part of picking upsets. ones like ugas-pac you can catch like that

Good point. I look at length of career and the amount of tough fights in it.