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Rating the Heavyweights

Posted: 14 Sep 2005, 10:47
by The Great John L
Sorry to start yet another thread about rating the HW champs, but this is slightly different. In previous threads I've avoided lisitng my ratings because I simply had not taken the time to actually think through how to really rank these guys. Rather than just put a list together, I setup a spreadsheet of all of the HW claimants in the gloved era (including John L) and applied a rating for each potential matchup. For this ranking I used a 5 point system that atempts to recognize the fact that one fight really doesn't determine who's better between 2 fighters, and that there is no one fighter that could have beaten every other fighter ALL the time.

Therefore I applied a 5 point ranking:

5 - the fighter wins essentially ALL of the matches
4 - the fighter wins the majority of the matches
3 - evenly matched, they pretty much split the matches
2 - the fighter loses the majority of the fights
1 - the fighter essentially loses ALL of the matches

For example if we match Joe Louis against Marvin Hart (remember him?), I would assign Louis a 5 and Hart a 1. Of course, there is always the rare opportunity when a matchup like this could result in an upset -- Hart headbuts Louis and the ref rules the cut was caused by a punch and Louis loses by TKO in 45 seconds of the 1st round. With the 5 rating for Louis we ignore the rare outcomes like this.

And to keep the ratings manageable, I kept the list to just those fighters that were generally recognized as HW champs, including the aforementioned Marvin Hart, and the much maligned Tommy Burns. I dropped all of the post Ali "partial champs" like Tubbs, Smith, Witherspoon, Spinks, etc., and just included Holmes, Tyson, Bowe, Holyfield and Lewis since Ali retired. Appologies to Norton and a few others that probably would have fared pretty well in these rankings, but I wanted to keep the list manageable.

Anyway, after looking at each matchup and applying the 5 point ranking, I came up with a list that is a bit different than if I had just listed them without this type of approach. Here's the rankings and the final points awarded

1. Ali 131
2. Louis 123
3. Johnson 122
4. Holmes 120
5. Marciano 110
6. Dempsey 105
7. Frazier 103
8. (tie) 102
Lewis
Tyson
10. (tie) 101
Charles
Tunney
12. Liston 100
13. Jeffries 98
14. Holyfield 97
15. (tie) 95
Corbett
Foreman
Sullivan
18. Walcott 88
19. Bowe 87
20. Baer 73
21. Schmeling 72
22. Fitzsimmons 69
23. Sharkey 67
24. Willard 63
25. Patterson 60
26. Braddock 53
27. Carnera 49
28. Burns 47
29. Johannson 46
30. Hart 43

Obviously, some of these matchups were based on more objective (fight films) data than others (Sullivan). For some of the early fighters (like Sullivan) I based opinion on styles and the LIKELY ability based on their documented accomplishments. Remember, this is for fun.

Posted: 14 Sep 2005, 11:20
by Ezzard
John L, are you an accountant :D ?

It's a nice idea and an interesting and well executed plan. Does the list differ from how you might have imagined it? Foreman and Liston look a little too low for me but this sometimes happens when you rate in this kind of way.

What was the biggest surprise of your results totals?

Posted: 14 Sep 2005, 11:33
by The Great John L
Ezzard wrote:John L, are you an accountant :D ?

It's a nice idea and an interesting and well executed plan. Does the list differ from how you might have imagined it? Foreman and Liston look a little too low for me but this sometimes happens when you rate in this kind of way.

What was the biggest surprise of your results totals?
Nope, not an accountant, just trying to take the guess work out of it.

It actually came out a lot different than I would have ranked them. The biggest surprise was Marciano. I really have a hard time with Rocky at 4, but when you match them up, a lot of these guys probably couldn't have stood up to the rock's pressure for 15 rounds.

Also, many of the modern HW's came in better (Lewis) thatn I would have expected, but size does matter when there is some skill bundled with the size. That said, I just couldn't see Lewis beating the Rock -- at least not most of the time.

I was also surprised by Liston and Foreman, but it just seemed that many of the champs who could box, would probably have been able to outbox and frustrate George. And once that happened, he probably would have tired as he did against Ali and Young.

And when it came to matching Liston up, I couldn't get past his quiting against Ali (both times?). I just envisioned him also getting outboxed and frustrated. While Liston was a fearsome fighter and had a terrific run in the 50's against pretty stiff opposition, when I matched him up one on one he didn't quite cut it against some of the better boxers. I even have him beating Lewis, Tyson and Frazier. Just not enough good matchups for him.

Posted: 14 Sep 2005, 12:35
by Ezzard
Just having another look and can't see Holyfield on the list?

Posted: 14 Sep 2005, 12:40
by The Great John L
Ezzard wrote:Just having another look and can't see Holyfield on the list?
Damn, I left him out of the spreadsheet! Guess I need to update this thing already.

Posted: 14 Sep 2005, 18:50
by Rory McCloskey
ohh johnny.. bless you for putting jimmy on the list...


i think the system u used is quite creative and it came out with what seems to be an accurate assumption. top 7 in my midn are flawless... 8-9 are not my favorite, but i think its quite common to have them ranked there. well anyway i think the list is impressive and the results are accurate.

Posted: 14 Sep 2005, 19:57
by The Great John L
Rory McCloskey wrote:ohh johnny.. bless you for putting jimmy on the list...


i think the system u used is quite creative and it came out with what seems to be an accurate assumption. top 7 in my midn are flawless... 8-9 are not my favorite, but i think its quite common to have them ranked there. well anyway i think the list is impressive and the results are accurate.
Well Braddock was a legitimate HW champ, so he fit in my criteria. Thanks for the kind words, and as I explained, this isn't really how I would have rated them without going through this process, but it did make me think about how each of them matchup against the other champs.

maybe I'll go back and add a few of the recent "paper champs", as well as some top contenders that didn't quite get titles.

Posted: 14 Sep 2005, 21:51
by sharkeysboy
John L. I kind of like what you did with that list. As a way of organizing ones thoughts and analyzing the data we have, it's useful. However, unlike baseball, boxing is not a stat heavy sport. So no mathematical formula could ever come close to being the final word on boxers because there's this thing that happens when two guys climb in there and start throwing punches. There are also so many variables that you can't measure. Bad decisions, varying levels of competition, different eras, pre-prime, post prime, fixed fights, racist exclusion, inactive champs and the trickiest of them all - the matchup. Some fighter we would never expect will beat Joe Louis in the fantasy tournament because his style turns out to be a nightmare for Louis. It seems aburd now, but Frazier was a strong favorite against Foreman and experts actally said that Frazier's style would bother Foreman!! Of course the exact opposite was true. Every contributor to this message board can come up with 20 similar examples. So you really never know. Everybody has an opinion hence this site that consumes so much of our time. But as far as measuring a champ's accomplishment in his own era your rating system is fun and educational.

Posted: 14 Sep 2005, 23:04
by The Great John L
sharkeysboy wrote:John L. I kind of like what you did with that list. As a way of organizing ones thoughts and analyzing the data we have, it's useful. However, unlike baseball, boxing is not a stat heavy sport. So no mathematical formula could ever come close to being the final word on boxers because there's this thing that happens when two guys climb in there and start throwing punches. There are also so many variables that you can't measure. Bad decisions, varying levels of competition, different eras, pre-prime, post prime, fixed fights, racist exclusion, inactive champs and the trickiest of them all - the matchup. Some fighter we would never expect will beat Joe Louis in the fantasy tournament because his style turns out to be a nightmare for Louis. It seems aburd now, but Frazier was a strong favorite against Foreman and experts actally said that Frazier's style would bother Foreman!! Of course the exact opposite was true. Every contributor to this message board can come up with 20 similar examples. So you really never know. Everybody has an opinion hence this site that consumes so much of our time. But as far as measuring a champ's accomplishment in his own era your rating system is fun and educational.
Thanks for the feedback. Of course there is no mathematecal formula to determine winners, and that in no way is what I have done here. Obviously, I am not attempting to apply any statistics, just trying to actually put some effort into my ratings. It's pretty easy to say, Ali #1, Louis #2, etc., but to actually list the fighters and then comparing them in your own mind with every other fighter in the list, based on how you perceive their physical skills and style. That's what I attempted to do. Your example of Foreman beating Frazier is exactly what I documented. In my evaluations, Frazier got good marks against boxers without great power, but fared less well against the big hitters like Louis, Liston, Foreman, etc. No statistics, just my own evaluation of each individual matchup, and then a summary of all of the matchups.

Try it, it really didn't take that long.

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 03:48
by jyuza
What a work ! Really you are the man :TU:
And this is exactly what i think :
1/ Ali
2/ Louis :box:

Re: Rating the Heavyweights

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 03:57
by vagabundo55
The Great John L wrote:Sorry to start yet another thread about rating the HW champs, but this is slightly different. In previous threads I've avoided lisitng my ratings because I simply had not taken the time to actually think through how to really rank these guys. Rather than just put a list together, I setup a spreadsheet of all of the HW claimants in the gloved era (including John L) and applied a rating for each potential matchup. For this ranking I used a 5 point system that atempts to recognize the fact that one fight really doesn't determine who's better between 2 fighters, and that there is no one fighter that could have beaten every other fighter ALL the time.

Therefore I applied a 5 point ranking:

5 - the fighter wins essentially ALL of the matches
4 - the fighter wins the majority of the matches
3 - evenly matched, they pretty much split the matches
2 - the fighter loses the majority of the fights
1 - the fighter essentially loses ALL of the matches

For example if we match Joe Louis against Marvin Hart (remember him?), I would assign Louis a 5 and Hart a 1. Of course, there is always the rare opportunity when a matchup like this could result in an upset -- Hart headbuts Louis and the ref rules the cut was caused by a punch and Louis loses by TKO in 45 seconds of the 1st round. With the 5 rating for Louis we ignore the rare outcomes like this.

And to keep the ratings manageable, I kept the list to just those fighters that were generally recognized as HW champs, including the aforementioned Marvin Hart, and the much maligned Tommy Burns. I dropped all of the post Ali "partial champs" like Tubbs, Smith, Witherspoon, Spinks, etc., and just included Holmes, Tyson, Bowe, Holyfield and Lewis since Ali retired. Appologies to Norton and a few others that probably would have fared pretty well in these rankings, but I wanted to keep the list manageable.

Anyway, after looking at each matchup and applying the 5 point ranking, I came up with a list that is a bit different than if I had just listed them without this type of approach. Here's the rankings and the final points awarded

1. Ali 131
2. Louis 123
3. Johnson 122
4. Holmes 120
5. Marciano 110
6. Dempsey 105
7. Frazier 103
8. (tie) 102
Lewis
Tyson
10. (tie) 101
Charles
Tunney
12. Liston 100
13. Jeffries 98
14. Holyfield 97
15. (tie) 95
Corbett
Foreman
Sullivan
18. Walcott 88
19. Bowe 87
20. Baer 73
21. Schmeling 72
22. Fitzsimmons 69
23. Sharkey 67
24. Willard 63
25. Patterson 60

26. Braddock 53
27. Carnera 49
28. Burns 47
29. Johannson 46
30. Hart 43

Obviously, some of these matchups were based on more objective (fight films) data than others (Sullivan). For some of the early fighters (like Sullivan) I based opinion on styles and the LIKELY ability based on their documented accomplishments. Remember, this is for fun.
Awesome system. I would not argue against that. Although my top three are 1. Louis 2. Johnson 3. Ali.. it's still very accurate and it's a great way to rank them based on facts and accomplishments. I would not argue against your top three because it can go either way in my own opinion. It's so hard to rank those three fighters because they were in a league of their own. It's always difficult to rank more than top 10 but i must say you did a very accurate job with that system.

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 12:06
by BrocktonBlockbuster49
how did marciano suddenly go from 4th to 5th?? lol

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 12:11
by The Great John L
BrocktonBlockbuster49 wrote:how did marciano suddenly go from 4th to 5th?? lol
My mistake earlier. He was 5th all along.

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 12:44
by BoxBuzz
Ok You are truly the Great John L!
I like the general feel of this list. It has panache!

Larry will be glad to see that the Rock really couldnt carry his Jock though other lists would not agree. I also happen to think Braddock beats Patterson.

Activity in general gets rewarded and results of activity is weighed out nicely. Hey perfection would be if it perfectly matched my personal list.

However it comes close enough for me to sense that scientific approaches can come close to perfection. Perfection being defined of course by my personal top secret and 100% accurate version supplied to me by God Almighty and who swore me to secrecy or he would have to smite me a mighty blow.

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 13:11
by BrocktonBlockbuster49
i dont think braddock beats patterson.

Id give patterson a chance agaisnt ezzard charles and jersey joe.

patterson is underated a lot here because of his chin, but he had possibly the fastest hands in heavyewieught history not to mention very underated power especially in his left hook . ali said once The toughest guy i ever fought was joe frazier, the powerfullest was george foreman, the scariest was sonny liston, and the most skilled was FLOYD PATTERSON.

Patterson showed what he was really like after he lossed the title. he fought to a controversial draw with quarry (my dad saw and told me he thought patterson won) and patterson managed to floor quarry. My dad also told me the biggest robbery hes ever seen was floyd patterson vs jimy ellis and that he broke ellis nose, floored ellis(called a slip), and outboxed him but didnt get the decision cause the fight was in ingos backyard. patterson would have become the first triple champion.
patterson also beat the likes of eddie machen, george chuvalo, and oscar bonavena.

i think patterson was too skilled for braddock, and pattersons handspeed would give braddock fits. i dont think braddock had enough power to KO patterson or hurt him throughout the fight. remember the patterson of the sixties had a better chin than the patterson who held the title.
basically it would be a boxing match, and patterson was a very good boxer.


rory i suggest making a new thread braddock vs patterson

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 13:17
by BoxBuzz
Hey Blocker don't expose my obvious bias here. You know I have held it against Patterson that he beat Archie. I can not assess Patterson in a fair way. However with that said Braddock takes him out by walking across the ring at which point Patterson passes out in fear upon sensing the first jab coming his way. Rory don't listen to him I"m not interested in listening to "logic" or "reason" here. I leave that to others to sort out in this theoretical.

I know one thing for certain. Braddock will be standing at the end of the 15th. We can not be equally as certain about Patterson.

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 13:22
by The Great John L
NM

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 13:25
by The Great John L
BrocktonBlockbuster49 wrote:...remember the patterson of the sixties had a better chin than the patterson who held the title....
This isn't really relevant to the thread, but since you made this statement I feel compelled to comment.

I don't think Patterson could possibly have developed a better chin later in his career. He may have become better at avoiding getting hit solid than when he was younger, but I don't think his actual ability to take punch improved.

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 13:25
by BoxBuzz
Well we've all seen enough upsets to know that you can call general tendencies but the Punchers always have that one moment that can take them places no one expected them to be.

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 19:42
by BrocktonBlockbuster49
Boxbuzz archies one of my favorite fighters all time also.

i was reading his book the other day and he was saying how he fought one of his best fights against marciano and thats obvious since he was coming off wins over bob baker, harold johnson, nino valdez, joey maxim and he got pumped for the marciano match and trained hard and looked very fast and skilfull. only problem was he was facing rocky marciano.
moore also then said he didnt feel right against patterson and that everything was wrong mentally and physically. i believe it cause at that stage patterson was green and stil young and the powerful archie moore i think should have knocked the young green patterson out.

i think he just got really worn out by marciano and then fought too soon instead of taking a break.

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 19:58
by Rory McCloskey
BoxBuzz wrote:Hey Blocker don't expose my obvious bias here. You know I have held it against Patterson that he beat Archie. I can not assess Patterson in a fair way. However with that said Braddock takes him out by walking across the ring at which point Patterson passes out in fear upon sensing the first jab coming his way. Rory don't listen to him I"m not interested in listening to "logic" or "reason" here. I leave that to others to sort out in this theoretical.

I know one thing for certain. Braddock will be standing at the end of the 15th. We can not be equally as certain about Patterson.
i think thats a great assesment and i beleive no way in hell could floyd knock out braddock, he simply didnt have the power, but could braddock wear him out and tacticlly slow him down and eventually KO him? i think that at around the time of the baer fight, that braddock would have enough power, so at his prime...braddock wins this fight.. but braddock sort of had 2 primes... 1 at heavyweight and 1 at light heavy before he broke his hand

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 20:09
by BrocktonBlockbuster49
naw rory braddock wont wear patterson down, not enough power.

patterson was way to fast and skilled for braddock, and had way too much handspeed and he had the power to take out braddock. patterson was a great boxer and i know braddock will get outboxed and when he tried to slug it out, floyds handspeed would be way to much.

braddock was made for patterson, i see a clear unanimous decision for patterson. chuvalo,bonavena, quarry couldnt wear patterson down i dont think braddock could.

Posted: 15 Sep 2005, 20:56
by Rory McCloskey
woah woah.. braddock was knocked out 1 time in 86 fights. and that was to possibly the hardest puncher of all time and louis was yougn and strong and braddock was older and losing it.. but if braddock could stand up to the murdurous punches of max baer then he would easily be able to take floyd pattersons.. i think uve said alot of great things in this debate and uve proven your point very well but with all respect i do not agree with this at ALL and think its totally unphathomable

Posted: 17 Sep 2005, 05:50
by jezzamundo
Ok, that's it, I am going to use your formula to find how it pans out when I use the same formula.

What I like about this is that it doesn't specify prime vs prime. For example, I think that a prime Lennox Lewis outboxes a prime Foreman (as Foreman believes himself), but looking at their overall careers, I think George beats Lennox maybe 6/7 times out of 10.

Posted: 17 Sep 2005, 07:10
by BoxBuzz
Though George has been quoted as saying that, George is not always right. This is a good case in point.