BoxRec

Interesting to note that when the betting first opened for the Calzaghe v Lacy fight that Joe was a slight favourite with almost all of the leading bookmakers. I have been keeping a close watch on the betting for this fight and the money has definately been for Lacy. The 6/4 that was originally offered about him seems like huge odds now, best price today is evens and i think that will go soon.

Best price today: (Calzaghe 6/5 Pinnacle) - (Lacy evens Ladbrokes)


Who's favourite with who

Sporting Odds: Calzaghe
Ladbrokes: Calzaghe
Paddy Power: Calzaghe
Blue Square: Calzaghe

Total Bet: Level
William Hill: Level
Sky Bet: Level
UK Betting: Level
Bet Direct: Level

Coral: Lacy
Bet 365: Lacy
Pinnacle: Lacy
Stan James: Lacy


I go for Calzaghe in this fight, by stoppage or decision, but its a close call and its not a fight i'd bet on.

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On another note, i strongly fancy Mosley to beat Vargas. I think he is way over priced at 4/6 with Blue Square and the Tote. I also like Maccarinelli to beat Nelson, Pinnacle are offering 21/20 for that result, good odds i think. I am also very confident that Magee will beat Froch but i cannot find any odds for that fight yet, can anyone else?


Regards
ALI

I agree with Mosley-Vargas match. I put £200 on those odds.

Mind you I really f------d up when I put £200 on Brudov over Hill! But I am more confident of this one.


The Calzaghe and Nelson odds have been very fluid. They are both hard fights to call - without any onside info on training, they are not betting fights.

Mosley over Vargas looks a dead cert.

And I think Joe might have too much experience for a still relatively untested Lacy - but it's just about 50/50.

What about the Calzaghe hands? I'd say it's almost certain he'll hurt them early on ( as usual ) so will he be taking pain killer hand injections before the fight, like Honeyghan used to? Anyone know?

I think they're being foolishly optomistic if they don't - Joe doesn't want to find himself one handed with a banger like Lacy coming at him.

Yes, this occurred to me also in assessing this fight. Calzaghe has a long documented history of hand trouble, and I think this is likely to be the factor which proves the leveller.

Lacy doesn't appear chinny, and there is every chance Calzaghe injures himself early on. He will then have big trouble on his hands, as Lacy is going to be swarming him for the whole fight.

I pick Lacy to win by late Stoppage.

Also, Danny Williams is a big price at 2/1 to beat Skelton. I would not bet on him to win at any odds (if in doubt, leave it out) thats my motto, but i've never rated the big bullying bar brawler Matt Skelton. This fight all depends on how Danny prepares, if he trains hard and is in shape i think he beats Skelton, but then, who knows what Danny will turn up on the night.........

jamesmcdonnell wrote:Yes, this occurred to me also in assessing this fight. Calzaghe has a long documented history of hand trouble, and I think this is likely to be the factor which proves the leveller.

Lacy doesn't appear chinny, and there is every chance Calzaghe injures himself early on. He will then have big trouble on his hands, as Lacy is going to be swarming him for the whole fight.

I pick Lacy to win by late Stoppage.

He willl finally have his chin tested though March 4th.

Coral: Lacy
Bet 365: Lacy
Pinnacle: Lacy
Stan James: Lacy

These American?

I think Nelson will beat Macca on experiance.

They are UK bookies above.

As for the hands, Lacy does have a hard looking head and huge neck which could well give Calzaghe some problems with his hands during the fight. At least he'll have some excuse when he ends up getting knocked out! If that does happen I really hope he takes the defeat like a man, but going on the things he has come out with in his career to date I really don't think he'd be gracious in defeat at all. Let's just hope for a good fight!

Max Molyneux wrote:

jamesmcdonnell wrote:Yes, this occurred to me also in assessing this fight. Calzaghe has a long documented history of hand trouble, and I think this is likely to be the factor which proves the leveller.

Lacy doesn't appear chinny, and there is every chance Calzaghe injures himself early on. He will then have big trouble on his hands, as Lacy is going to be swarming him for the whole fight.

I pick Lacy to win by late Stoppage.

He willl finally have his chin tested though March 4th.

Coral: Lacy
Bet 365: Lacy
Pinnacle: Lacy
Stan James: Lacy

These American?

I think Nelson will beat Macca on experiance.

Bear in mind though, Calzaghe couldn't stop Evans Ashira, precisely due to the reasons I gave above. I agree that Lacy hasn't exactly proven himself to have a cast iron chin, but there's little to suggest he has a poor ability to take a shot, and Calzaghe hasn't exactly been destroying opposition lately.

He nearly did stop Ashira before his hand went out in the 3rd.

What fights before Ashira did his hands break? Surely it's not that often. It was a back injury before that wasn't it?

Think he'll mostly need to watchout for Lacy rights at the most. Lacy can trade but he'll finally have someone to trade with who could give him a tougher time.

He has had hand trouble throughout his career.

As for Ashira, the guy was a blown up Light Middleweight and he never had him in any sort of trouble - even in the first 3 rounds he never looked like stopping him. I very much doubt he stops Lacy.

Calzaghe can hit reasonably hard but is he really that much of a puncher? Charles Brewer is as chinny as they come, Calzaghe threw everything but the kitchen sink at him over 12 rounds and didn't even floor him. Even a 38 year old Herol Graham dropped Brewer 2 or 3 times. Let's bear that in mind. Before anyone gets on the defensive (Max) coming back with something about Lacy please don't bother I am merely pointing out that Calzaghe is not this big KO king he is made out to be. And his hand trouble may well be something to do with that.

Max Molyneux wrote:He nearly did stop Ashira before his hand went out in the 3rd.

What fights before Ashira did his hands break? Surely it's not that often. It was a back injury before that wasn't it?

Think he'll mostly need to watchout for Lacy rights at the most. Lacy can trade but he'll finally have someone to trade with who could give him a tougher time.

If you won't take my word for it, perhaps you will take Joe's word for it.

http://www.joecalzaghe.com/jc/jcprofile.php

Word over what?

I know he gets injured.

Well if you look at all the fights where Calzaghe has supposedly hurt his hands they have been pretty poor performances.

So either hurt hands=poor performance, or poor performance='hurt hands'.

You said 'what other fights did his hands break' well, Calzaghe said that his hands were busted up in fights with Starie Thornberry and Reid. It's on his own website. He also says that he postponed or cancelled numerous times due to hand, wrist and elbow inuries....read it for yourself.

Yeah I believe he imjured them then but I was saying surely it isn't that often and there is a long gap of when he broke his hands inbetween the fights you mentioned.

Where did I say long gap?

Answer..... I didn't.

I am pointing out, quite correctly that Calzaghe suffers from brittle hands, it's a well known fact, and that in his fight with Ashira, (amongst others) he cited bad hands as a reason for not being able to put in a good performance.

Thus, it is quite probable that he will injure his hands against Lacy.

I know he injures it but he doesn;t injury it every fight or every 2 fights.

I know you didn't say it I was saying there was a long gap in between those fights of when he injured his hands so he wouldn't be injuring them that often.

Even though Ashira was shite he still put in a good performance with a broken hand outboxing him and like I said was easy since Ashira sucks.

The one thing about Calzaghe in this fight is that he will be properly up for it - he will train bloody hard and will be focussed now the marriage problems are out the way.

He will be the most up he has been since Eubank.

Max Molyneux wrote:I know he injures it but he doesn;t injury it every fight or every 2 fights.

I know you didn't say it I was saying there was a long gap in between those fights of when he injured his hands so he wouldn't be injuring them that often.

Even though Ashira was shite he still put in a good performance with a broken hand outboxing him and like I said was easy since Ashira sucks.

How long have you been following Calzaghe? Your blind faith in him knows no bounds! Seriously the amount of injuries and hand trouble over the last 8-9 years have been ludicrous. Not just the ones mentioned in that article either.

Are the bad hands merely excuses for a poor performance? Or are poor performances due to bad hands?

Betfair have Lacy as favourite, but the money has been going onto Calzaghe.

Calzaghe will KO Lacy with an uppercut

Calazage all the way for me, may have to put something on that 1. Lacys horrendously overated imo, punches far too wide, telegraphs, and has overated power. Speed will be the factor. I think it'll be 8-4 UD Joe, I don't see a young hungry, fit, thick necked fighter like Lacy getting ko'd. If it is a great fight when was the last time we had a UK/US trilogy?

Why are we so confident Mosley will beat Vargas. Mosleys largely unproven at 154 and hasn't had a meaningful win in years and looked small and gun shy against a Welterweight last time out. Really 50-50 fight for me.

Haven't seen it, but I read that Sheika stunned Lacy a few times?

Plus the fact that both Lacy and Shaw are probably not expecting JC to hit that hard, as I've heard Shaw talk about how Joe slaps rather than punches. Calzaghe is a very fast starter, and Lacy might be in for an early shock if he doesn't think Joe can punch any.

MightyWarrior wrote:Haven't seen it, but I read that Sheika stunned Lacy a few times?

Plus the fact that both Lacy and Shaw are probably not expecting JC to hit that hard, as I've heard Shaw talk about how Joe slaps rather than punches. Calzaghe is a very fast starter, and Lacy might be in for an early shock if he doesn't think Joe can punch any.

Watched it, yes Lacy was stunned, once really shook up, I don't think it means that much - Lacy certainly has a chin imo. Does Joe hit as hard as Sheika?

Lacy and Shaw wont be underestimating Calzaghe, that sort of talk is all part of the fun and games leading up to a fight. You can bet Lacy will be in phenomenal shape physically and mentally come fight night. You have to worry about Calzaghe though, can he get himself into phenomenal shape aged 33? And more importantly can he get himself right mentally after all the tomato cans he's been fighting?

3-4 years ago Calzaghe wins this fight at a canter on points, I don't think he will now though.

I would have to say no, especially not lately. Sheika really plants his feet when he punches. I haven't seen Joe really look devastating when he punches for a while.

Calzaghe does indeed start fast, and I think that might be his best chance of winning. The only danger is that Lacy has quite quick hands for a big man, and punches well in combo too.

I think it is possible that Joe could just outbox Lacy too, but think that might be hard to keep up for 12 rounds.