Calzaghe v Pavlik - who wins?

[ALI]

There's a big possability that this fight could happen sometime later this year. Lets get some early thoughts on who wins and why.

I'll be the first to go on record and predict a Pavlik upset. I really think very highly of Pavlik, and even with Calzaghe's big natural weight advantage, i think he has been on the slide for the last few years and is now ripe for the taking. It will still however take a phenomenal fighter to beat him, but i think Pavlik is that very fighter (i would also tip Taylor to beat Calzaghe now). Pavlik for me has it all, long reach, first rate jab, very high output, wonderfull combinations, blinding accuracy, and he's a terrific finisher. Add to all of that his rock solid chin and you've got a very very hard to beat fighter. Calzaghe is really up against it here with this guy!

I would tip Pavlik by UD should this fight happen, or even possibly by late KO!!

[Peter Hick]

I also think Calzaghe is on the slide but probably has one big performance left in him.

Having said that Pavlik can punch and is big for a middleweight, plus Joe's defence is not brilliant so an upset is not inconceivable.

[Goz]

Pavlik is very good no doubt but I fancy Joe to have enough left to outpoint him if it happens this year, especially with the extra weight.

[Max Molyneux]

Joe by easy decision.

Loew would have to pull Kelly out of being battered so much.

[Dioufy]

Calzaghe still has the edge to outbox him and I would fancy Kessler's chances against pavlik too. I don't think Pavlik will knock Calzaghe out because Calzaghe would come into the ring about 180lbs whilst Pavlik would come in about 176lbs and that would slightly combat Pavlik's punch a little bit - if Calzaghe was a natural middleweight then I would go with Pavlik but Calzaghe is a very big guy with a jaw made out of cast iron. I actually think Pavlik would be made for Calzaghe.

[Max Molyneux]

Joe has the strength and size to trade with him. Natural Middleweights should learn to outbox Kelly more Instead of trading.

[Asterix]

A couple of years ago I would back Joe to win comfortably. Right now, I'd call it a 60-40 fight in favour of Calzaghe. Pavlik is getting better and better and Joe is on the decline. Joe's punch resistance has got to be worse than it was in the Kessler fight and his stamina didn't look as good against Hopkins.

Tough fight to call, imo. I'd say 60% chance Calzaghe by unanimous decision, but 40% chance Pavlik wins by KO.

[Chambers2]

IMO it's either JC on points or Pavlik by KO (possibly points if he scores a kd or 2)

I'd (obviously) be supporting Joe if this fight were to happen, but I've been very impressed with Kellys effectiveness and relentlessness and if pushed for a prediction I'd go for Kelly by KO. I can't see how Pavlik generates so much power in his punches, but it's obvious that he has it in abundance and he's an excellent finisher.

From a neutral fans point of view this is the best fight out there for both fighters, I really hope it gets made, because I've not got anywhere near as much interest in JC Vs Jones/Tarver. The matchmaking for JC has been excellent and this would give him a GREAT tale end to his career if he could finish off with a BIG win over Kelly and it would go a very long way to blotting out JC's mid-career boredom.

Lets get it on!!!

[Poncey]

I don't think Kelly will have a plan B and feel that Hopkins at 175 is a harder fight so Joe will outwork him. Pavlik is also too direct. I'm not convinced Kelly is as impressive at 168, which his physical dimensions and power, as he is at 160.

[Max Molyneux]

Calzaghe has taken harder punches than what Pavlik has thrown and not been hurt.

Pavlik Is going the route Gatti did with that brawling style.

He comes forward too recklessly and thats made for Joe.

Pavlik Vs Froch would be a more competitive fight as they both head hunt. Froch would win because he has the better chin. Be a fight for you slugfest fans.

[Chambers2]

Calzaghe has taken harder punches than what Pavlik has thrown and not been hurt.

Has he???

[Autobarn]

Just because Pavlik is aggressive doesn't necessarily mean that he will play right into Joe. Kelly applies better pressure (and hits harder than) Jeff Lacy. And he is far more comfortable coming forward than Kessler.

I got some stick for saying that Joe would struggle with granite man Librado Andrade. That Joe's brittle hands would make no impact and that he'd have trouble with the physical strength (as he did with Bika). I think what I also meant to say was the reach issue. Andrade can reach anyone, as he's so big. Joe reaches in, and with his legs not being as strong as they once were, stumbles in.

Pavlik knows how to use a reach better than Andrade. If he can use hard jabs, feints to draw Joe's lead, Joe could fumble in, wanging weak slaps, and Pavlik could counter at this point as do some serious damage. Joe was reaching in vs Kessler and I'm sure you all noticed how - several times - he did what looked like a bow, because he had fallen so far forward. When Joe's head is low like that, step in and counter with a low left hook.

There are lots of things that Pavlik can do. His hard fights as contender and champion make fighting Calzaghe a natural next step, not a leap up too far.

[Asterix]

Calzaghe has taken harder punches than what Pavlik has thrown and not been hurt.

Pavlik Is going the route Gatti did with that brawling style.

He comes forward too recklessly and thats made for Joe.

Pavlik Vs Froch would be a more competitive fight as they both head hunt. Froch would win because he has the better chin. Be a fight for you slugfest fans.

Pavlik doesn't come forward recklessly. He uses his jab and methodically persues his opponent. You could see in the Lockett fight that he's not just about head shots. He really hurt Lockett with a body shot. It was a very impressive performance and Pavlik keeps going up in my estimation.

[Twinkle Toes]

Always been a big Calzaghe fan, but I think he might be going to the well one time to many if this fight is made.

Pavlik looks big at the weight to me, he has a big upper frame so I think the weight wouldnt be such an issue. Joe has never been the biggest of punchers, more wearing fighters out with relentless assaults, so I think Pavlik has a sound enough chin to not get one shotted at the higher weight and is defensively good enough not to get over whelmed.

Pavlik is accurate, very accurate - He's heavy handed too and this coupled with his accuracy and array of punches makes him a far tougher proposition than Lacy.

I'd like to think Calzaghe has enough speed left to take a decision, but this is one tough fight.

[hitman_hatton1]

calzaghe on pts.

i just think joe does everything better than pavlik.

he can stand in with the best of em and tough it out.

he can box him if he has to.

he's got the workrate to more than match pavlik.

i just don't see any department where joe would be lacking against pavlik.

[Chambers2]

i just don't see any department where joe would be lacking against pavlik.

Punch power

[HughJohnson]

Pavlik would have to stand off and let JC make the fight..catch him coming in, much like Mitchell,Hopkins,Saleem.
If Pavlik comes out swinging for the KO it plays into Calzaghes hands and with Joes superior footwork, and control of distance With sporadic gorilla raids mixed with that sharp accurate jab, it could be a very winnable fight for JC.

[Wales]

i just don't see any department where joe would be lacking against pavlik.

Punch power

Im not convinced he'l ltake Kellys best in a slugfest.

[hitman_hatton1]

i just don't see any department where joe would be lacking against pavlik.

Punch power

yeah perhaps.

don't get jammy boy.

[WildWaylon]

The fight wont happen. Joe is near to retirement, Kelly is proving a very tough nut to crack, and there are better options with huge pay days, RJJ and Johnson for example. Why risk his unbeaten record against the likes of Pavlik or Tarver. I am sure Joe wont be thinking of doing a Welsh revenge thing on Pavlik. I think Joe could outbox Pavlik but I also think Pavlik could drop Joe and finish him off. So my view would be 50/50 and therefore well out of step with this poll so far. Joe needs good earning, competetive fights not a war with a big, young, hard hitter which is what Kelly Pavlik is.

[Max Molyneux]

Just because Pavlik is aggressive doesn't necessarily mean that he will play right into Joe. Kelly applies better pressure (and hits harder than) Jeff Lacy. And he is far more comfortable coming forward than Kessler.

I got some stick for saying that Joe would struggle with granite man Librado Andrade. That Joe's brittle hands would make no impact and that he'd have trouble with the physical strength (as he did with Bika). I think what I also meant to say was the reach issue. Andrade can reach anyone, as he's so big. Joe reaches in, and with his legs not being as strong as they once were, stumbles in.

Pavlik knows how to use a reach better than Andrade. If he can use hard jabs, feints to draw Joe's lead, Joe could fumble in, wanging weak slaps, and Pavlik could counter at this point as do some serious damage. Joe was reaching in vs Kessler and I'm sure you all noticed how - several times - he did what looked like a bow, because he had fallen so far forward. When Joe's head is low like that, step in and counter with a low left hook.

There are lots of things that Pavlik can do. His hard fights as contender and champion make fighting Calzaghe a natural next step, not a leap up too far.

Lacy was hitting hard at a higher weight, something Pavlik hasn't done.

Lacy's got the better chin too.

Joe's faster than Kessler and could overwhelm him with flurries as Librado comes forward, even the most granite guys will stop when overwhelmed like that.

Weak slaps pummeled Lacy all over the ring and hurt Kessler to the body. When there thrown In the volume and speed Joe throws them at, there not weak then.

Pavlik doesn't look like he learned anything from them hard fights, he made them hard because he's a one dimensional brawler and pressure fighter. He's just too big for the guys he's been fighting thats all.

Taylor should of got a draw or a win against him, he easily outjabbed Kelly and moved around him.

[Max Molyneux]

Calzaghe has taken harder punches than what Pavlik has thrown and not been hurt.

Pavlik Is going the route Gatti did with that brawling style.

He comes forward too recklessly and thats made for Joe.

Pavlik Vs Froch would be a more competitive fight as they both head hunt. Froch would win because he has the better chin. Be a fight for you slugfest fans.

Pavlik doesn't come forward recklessly. He uses his jab and methodically persues his opponent. You could see in the Lockett fight that he's not just about head shots. He really hurt Lockett with a body shot. It was a very impressive performance and Pavlik keeps going up in my estimation.

Wasn't hard to hit still, Lockett was just too small for a trading match with Pavlik.

Abraham would beat Pavlik too being the tougher chinned fighter, there both one dimensional sluggers with power.

Sturm could keep distance moving In and out jabbing Pavlik.

[Gray-Fox]

I don't know but I'd love Pavlik to win. He's a real fighter and Joe is a punk.

[WildWaylon]

I don't know but I'd love Pavlik to win. He's a real fighter and Joe is a punk.

Not nice and very unfair comment.

[Grilling Machine]

Pavlik has great combos. He punches with power whilst moving into range for a left hook. However, I've only seen him do this to static guys. Amir Khan uses a height advantage in a similar way: a kind of 'herding' style.

Calzaghe still moves too well to get backed onto the ropes or into a corner. JC on points for me, in a dull counter-punching affair.