2008 Olympic Games Beijing 8.8.08-8.24.08 (with spoilers)

[emile]

So let's get this started, with the draw coming on Friday. I thought maybe to break each weight into a separate discussion, but it's probably better to just have one giant thread. Since the bouts are going to be shown tape-delayed (at least in the US), all discussion of results should be kept in here. So let go with your analysis and news updates as we wait for the draw.

I'm not going to make any more predictions, but I thought it was interesting to think about how likely it was that the World Champions would also win Olympic Gold. It's been almost a year since Chicago, so form may have changed a lot since then and some young fighters may have developed. Based on the betting odds, this is the order of likelihood that the fighters will repeat. The order looks about right to me, but every world champ is the betting favorite (although Gavin and Cammarelle are tied as betting favorites with Tishchenko and Timurziev)

1. Zou Shiming (48) 1/3
2. Matvey Korobov (75) 4/6
3. Rau'Shee Warren (51) 8/11
4. Serik Sapiyev (64) 1/1
4. Demetrius Andrade (69) 1/1
6. Abbos Atoev (81) 6/5
7. Clemente Russo (91) 6/4
7. Roberto Cammarelle (91+) 6/4
9. Albert Selimov (57) 2/1
9. Frankie Gavin (60) 2/1
11. Sergey Vodopyanov (54) 9/4

But how many of these fighters will actually win? In 2004, it had been over a year since the 2003 World Champs in Thailand.

48kg - world champ Sergey Kazakov lost in the semis to Atagun Yalcinkaya
51kg - world champ Somjit Jongjohor lost in the round of 16 to Yuriorkis Gamboa
54kg - world champ Agassi Mamedov lost in the semis to Worapoj Petchkoom
57kg - world champ Galib Jafarov lost in the quarters to Alexei Tishchenko
60kg - world champ Mario Kindelan won the gold medal
64kg - world champ Willy Blain lost in the quarters to Manus Boomjumnong
69kg - world champ Lorenzo Aragon lost in the final to Bakhityar Artayev
75kg - world champ Gennadi Golovkin lost in the final to Gayderbek Gayderbekov
81kg - world champ Evgeni Makarenko lost in the quarters to Andre Ward
91kg - world champ Odlanier Solis won the gold medal
91+kg - world champ Alexander Povetkin won the gold medal

So, not very predictive at all, with only three fighters repeating and only 5 of 11 even making it to the final. So there may be a lot of surprise winners, especially considering the Cubans didn't fight at the Worlds and should have at least one or two fighters who become stars this month.

[emile]

The schedule of fights in Beijing will be:

8/9 - 75kg, 81kg prelims (plus I believe the two extra bouts in the 48kg and 69kg categories)
8/10 - 64kg, 69kg prelims
8/11 - 57kg, 60kg prelims
8/12 - 51kg, 54kg prelims
8/13 - 48kg, 91kg, 91+kg prelims
8/14 - 64kg, 69kg, 81kg prelims
8/15 - 54kg, 57kg, 60kg prelims
8/16 - 48kg, 51kg, 75kg prelims
8/17 - 64kg, 69kg, 91kg quarters
8/18 - 54kg, 57kg, 91+kg quarters
8/19 - 48kg, 60kg, 81kg quarters
8/20 - 51kg, 75kg quarters
8/21 rest day
8/22 - semifinals
8/23 - 51kg, 57kg, 64kg, 75kg, 91kg finals
8/24 - 48kg, 54kg, 60kg, 69kg, 81kg, 91+kg finals

Also, here is the full TV schedule for the US, from USA Boxing. More than I expected, on CNBC and Telemundo, with some live broadcasts in the middle of the night (mixed in with softball games).

http://www.usaboxing.org/10_2289.htm

[CoreyWash]

sounds good..i'll be on the lookout

[emile]

Important note about the draw - it will happen late Thursday night in the US. It will take place at 11AM Friday in Beijing, which is 4AM in London, and 11PM Thursday in the Eastern Time Zone.

[emile]

Bios have been up on the official Olympics site, if anyone hasn't seen them. Birthdates now for all the fighters, and heights for most of them. The youngest in the field appears to be Furkan Ulas Memis of Turkey, at just 17 and four months. I think Mexico's Oscar Valdez is the second youngest, also 17 but four months older than Memis.

[emile]

As noted in the other thread, draws are available here: http://www.aiba.org/en-US/events/2008Olympics.aspx
and here: http://results.beijing2008.cn/WRM/ENG/S ... 8-09.shtml

Regrets not only to Gavin and Russell, but also Getachew Molla of Ethiopia who was deleted from the program. Also, one of the tri-partite commission's wild-card picks Simanga Shiba of Swaziland, was replaced by Saidu Kargbo of Sierra Leone at 48kg.

The draws came out pretty unbalanced. From the US perspective though, that ended up pretty good, as American boxers got definite above average draws. China, interestingly, got no favors at all.

The biggest tragedy of the draw is that Selimov and Lomachenko, who fought for gold in Chicago, meet in the first round. It's a real shame that one of them will not get more of a chance to show what they can do. That is _the_ battle of the first round for me. The overall worst draws for balance are 64kg, with Sapiyev, Boonjumnong, Kovalev, Maitituersun, and Iglesias all in the top half, and 81kg, with Atoev, Kurbanov, Shynaliyev, Sivolija, Semiotis, Negron all in the same semi group and Beterbiev in the same half.

With Russell out, the US can take solace in that Yanez and Wilder got about the best draws they could have hoped for, and have legitimate shots at medals. Raynell Williams also got a good draw. Djelkhir is a tough out, but Raynell already beat him in Chicago. Even Ali, Molina, and Estrada have chances to win a few bouts, although medalling looks probably a bit out of reach. Warren and Andrade both have tough paths to gold, but it was always going to be that way.

For GB, I really like Saunders' draw. 64kg is a hugely unbalanced draw and he's on the right side, potentially matched against fighters he beat in Chicago. Jeffries also got quite lucky in another majorly unbalanced draw, and has a good shout for a medal. Price got a terrible draw, and the rest of the team has a challenge. Ireland got really good draws as well - Barnes, Sutherland, and Egan all got favorable positions, and Joyce and Nevin didn't do too badly.

[boxmel]

The draws came out pretty unbalanced. The biggest tragedy of the draw is that Selimov and Lomachenko, who fought for gold in Chicago, meet in the first round.

Ahhh - the vagrancies of the blind draw.

the US can take solace in that Yanez and Wilder got about the best draws they could have hoped for,

If Yanez gets past Spain, he will box the winner between Mongolia and Uganda, if he gets past the second round, he'll more than likely meet the Thai boxer - to win puts him in the medal round.

If Wilder gets past Algeria, he'll meet the winner between Australia and MAR. If he gets to the medal round, he'll meet China, Ukraine, Italy or Belarus - I can see a bronze in his future.

Rau'shee doesn't have it easy but getting to the medal round shouldn't be insurmountable.

With Gary Russell out, I'm going to keep my fingers crossed for McJoe Arroyo, who gets Russia right off the bat.

Looks like it might an uphill battle for Raynell - if he gets past Djelhkir (and that isn't a given), he has the Cubans and the Stans in the bottom half of his bracket. Uphill for Ali and Javier. Demetrius has Georgia and Russia in the prelims; the semis don't look too bad, so he gets to the medal round.

Just my meanderings. 8)

[emile]

If Raynell can get a bronze, I think that would be pretty good. But he can aim higher since Selimov, Lomachenko, and Li are all in the other half of the draw. I think McJoe is toast, but McWilliams got a very good draw - I could see him meeting Balakshin in the semis, and he might have a chance to win that. Augustama also got a good draw - if he can beat Brazilian veteran Washington Silva, that draw is wide open.

[boxmel]

I think McJoe is toast, but McWilliams got a very good draw

-

Yeah - but McWilliams is in the same weight as Rau'shee.

>

Augustama also got a good draw - if he can beat Brazilian veteran Washington Silva, that draw is wide open.

Augustama hasn't done well in prior years - I don't see him as any kind of a force.

[boxmel]

Point of interest - Mc Williams Arroyo is the flag bearer for Puerto Rico and Manny Pacquiao for the Phillipines.

[locoxelbox]

Yeah, there were some boxers wearing the flags. They use to. Alexis Arguello (!) was the flag bearer of Nicaragua

[holeymoley99]

Clemente Russo who hsome had as the Heavyweight favorite as winning Gold at the 2007 World's drew defending Olympic Silver Medalist Viktor Zuyev opening round. Talk about a burn barner opening contest, wow.

[Spreadking]

I found odds with Warren ( US ) being a favorite to win gold in his division. I took the field to win the gold instead of Warren +105.

go Wilder ( USA )

[emile]

Boxing kicks off in less than two hours - 2am EST (live on CNBC in the US).

Some excellent action on day one in the Middleweight and Light Heavyweight classes. Poor Sweden has only two fighters and they were drawn today against the Russians Korobov and Beterbiev, so looks like it might be a quick tournament for them.

Some good matchups today, in my opinion:
Said Rachidi vs Bakhityar Artayev - They fought in the quarters in Chicago and Rachidi did pretty well after falling behind early.
Wang Jianzheng vs Sergey Derevyanchenko - Both made it far at Chicago before losing to Korobov, but Wang actually did better.
Abbos Atoev vs Djakhon Kurbanov - Two of the top fighters go at it, both from Central Asia. Atoev won at Chicago and Kurbanov won the Asian Games in 2006 when he was only 20.
Yerkebuian Shynaliyev vs Daugirdas Semiotis - The two bronze medalists at Light Heavyweight in Chicago, although Shynaliyev had much more impressive wins.

[emile]

The games are underway! Don't read further if you don't want to know results.



SPOILERS BELOW*****************










Matvey Korobov (RUS) d Naim Terbunja (SWE) 18-6

Surprisingly close score. I wonder if the judges have been instructed to be more discerning before hitting the scoring paddle.

[Canada]

Thanks Emile, where are you getting the results from?

[emile]

They are coming up on the official Olympic site. US TV coverage is about to start with Estrada-Maderna.

Bakhityar Artayev (KAZ) d Said Rachidi (MAR) 8-2

[emile]

So far, typically shitty NBC coverage, wasting time instead of showing fights that are going on. Fred Roggin - still alive! Still doing his Bob Saget meets Marv Albert shtick.

Jim Gray trying to stir things up by saying the US team is 'very angry' with Gary Russell, which I seriously doubt.

Looks like a pretty sparse crowd.

[emile]

DeGale leads Hikal 5-3 after two rounds as we finally get to live action. Hikal led 3-2 after one round.

9-3 DeGale after three. The British fighter looks good, successfully countering Hikal coming in.

James DeGale (GBR) d Mohammed Hikal (EGY) 13-4

[holeymoley99]

Degale with the upset should make for an easier bout for Estarda next round if Shawn wins here.

[emile]

Degale with the upset should make for an easier bout for Estarda next round if Shawn wins here.

Can't agree - DeGale looked the clearly better fighter in the two rounds they showed. He has nice loose style and long arms. He looks a lot smoother than Estrada, although Shawn is doing a nice job with Maderna, leading 8-2 after three.

Shawn Estrada (USA) d Ezequiel Maderna (ARG) 10-2. Showed a little more control than in Chicago, although against an opponent he beat in the qualifiers.

It definitely appears that the judges are not scoring nearly as easily as in Chicago.

[Canada]

http://www.cbc.ca/olympics/livevideo/#n ... r:17623.js

Live Bouts!

[holeymoley99]

Hikal was 3rd at the World's in 2005, which is a higher level then DeGale has ever achieved (He beat Gennady Golovkin). DeGale seems to have natural talent but comes up short when it counts. I think Estrada beats him.

[emile]

Andranik Hakobyan (ARM) d Ahmed Saraku (GHA) 14-8

Good fight. Saraku started really letting his hands go in the last two rounds and made the fight close. Hakobyan has the very classic Armenian style, but showed his head movement to be a little lacking and got caught with straight right hands against a guy he was beating.

[emile]

Elshod Rasulov (UZB) d Jean Mickael Raymond (FRA) 8-2

Rasulov really showed off his superior lateral footwork and toyed with Raymond at the end,