Will young Oscar slay the Big Bad Wolf on Saturday night?

[jamesmcdonnell]

Ok, so he's not so young anymore...but he's still a Knight In Shining Armour to a lot of his female fans, which gives the fight a weird, fairy tale angle - Beauty and the Beast, or -

My, what big teeth you have....

But will Little Red Riding Hood suddenly turn and slay the fearsome big bad wolf?

I think he's got a better chance than he's been given - Hop is no Marvin Hagler - Destruct & Destroy. He's a thinking fighter, who likes to outbox and break down his opponents, bit by bit. He's not even a very big middleweight - and could still make light middle if he needed too.

ODH is not a bad boxer himself, much better than one-paced Tito, and he's faster than Hopkins too.
Even his right hand might give the bigger man a surprise ( think Jones/Ruiz ) and leave Hopkins showing him a bit of respect - in which case, The Golden Boy's chances go up a level.

There's a good chance of a fairytale end to Oscar's dream on Saturday night.

He may not be a big middleweight, but Oscar is a pumped up Jr Welterweight, and hop started his career at 177 on his pro debut, he's naturally far bigger and far more powerful.

If Oscar was shaken by Mosley's shots at welterweigh, he's in for a shock when Nard hits him. for what it's worth, Hagler was thinking fighter too, he was very aggressive, but he was also a masterful boxer with seamless offensive skills.

if Nard smells blood, I think we may well see him beat on Oscar like a wayward child. I really think that this may prove to be a bridge too far for Oscar. I know he's a crisp puncher, but Oscar has better timing and overall a better boxing brain. Oscar will have to fight pretty hard to keep Nard off, and no matter how hard he trains, that will tire him more than Nard, who I think at 40 is fitter, stronger and better in many departments than Oscar.

I think Oscar puts up a brave and determined effort, but he's not quite Sugar Ray, and I think Nard has the beating of him.

[Loftgroov]

ODH is not a bad boxer himself

No shit!

[MightyWarrior]

He may not be a big middleweight, but Oscar is a pumped up Jr Welterweight, and hop started his career at 177 on his pro debut, he's naturally far bigger and far more powerful.

If Oscar was shaken by Mosley's shots at welterweigh, he's in for a shock when Nard hits him. for what it's worth, Hagler was thinking fighter too, he was very aggressive, but he was also a masterful boxer with seamless offensive skills.

if Nard smells blood, I think we may well see him beat on Oscar like a wayward child. I really think that this may prove to be a bridge too far for Oscar. I know he's a crisp puncher, but Oscar has better timing and overall a better boxing brain. Oscar will have to fight pretty hard to keep Nard off, and no matter how hard he trains, that will tire him more than Nard, who I think at 40 is fitter, stronger and better in many departments than Oscar.

I think Oscar puts up a brave and determined effort, but he's not quite Sugar Ray, and I think Nard has the beating of him.

Could be, could be....and yes Hagler defintely had it all, a class apart from Hopkins if you ask me, but I was thinking Hagler would be more likely to tear into ODH, and show him up pretty fast - whereas Hop is basically a very cautious fighter: he doesn't take any more risks than absolutely neccesary.
There's a chance that ODH can keep him off with a few big shots - earn some respect - thus giving himself a chance to outbox ol' man Hopkins.
I remember the way Hop went into his shell against Jones Jr in one of his few, really big fights.

Unlike Hagler, Hopkin's is not bulletproof: down twice against the very ordinary Mercado let's not forget.

Like I say, Once Upon A Time In America....

[TheGoods]

Despite Carl Thompson/Antonio Margarito shattering my wagering confidence last week I have to go with 'The Executioner' here.

PS - If anyone's after backing 'Nard, my advice is to wait until at least Friday. DLH's weight is obviously an issue but my gut feeling is that there is going to be plenty of late money on Oscar from our Latino friends. Price already coming in (2/7 last week to 4/9 this morning).

[Loftgroov]

When I look at this fight on paper, everything says Hopkins UD.

That being the case, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see De La Hoya take the decision. It could be a way to reignite the “golden boy” to the American public, by doing something that Tito wasn’t able to do. We need to bare in mind Hopkins’ age, and I don’t mean in relation to this fight but from a career and future PPV earnings perspective.

Hopkins isn’t going to go on much longer and I can see him taking this big pay day and being pushed into retirement by a poor judging decision (Hagler anyone?).

A De La Hoya victory leads to bigger things in the medium to longer term. He has more “big matchups” to make than Hopkins who is due for retirement. We must surely all by now be aware that money talk in US Boxing, and a defeat for De La Hoya again will flush his marketability down the toilet. He’ll have lost one too many times.

The yanks absolutely love comebacks, particularly from underdogs, and a De la Hoya win spells $$$$ for the money men.

Prediction: De La Hoya SD (Hopkins to be on the end of a poor decision)

[DavidPayne]

This is a fascinating fight, and despite the pitiful performance served up by Oscar in his last bout, I do feel this fight could be more competitive than many believe. In fact, the Sturm performance could prove to have been a vital catalyst in ensuring Oscar realised the enormity of the challenge he faced and forcing him to prepare thoroughly.

Of course, much is being made of the size advantages Hopkins will have and the speed advantage Oscar will hold. Personally, I think once these two guys square off at centre ring, the size difference may not be as large as people think, in much the way it didn't when Ali met Liston the first time, but neither do I feel Oscar will enjoy that large an advantage in hand-speed.

It strikes me that Oscar decision to come in almost on the Light-Middleweight limit is a good one as it will maintain any hand-speed advantage he does have and Hopkins doesn't tend to pile on the weight following the weigh in as some middleweights do. So by staying light Oscar doesn't sacrifice too much.

The problem Oscar will have is doing enough to win rounds, I just cannot see a scenario where Hopkins doesn't match him punch for punch and Oscar is unlikely to try and dance his way to victory - he may be skilled but he's not SRL, too much Mexican in his blood. Whilst the Hagler v SRL analogy is a good one at first glance, closer scrutiny makes the comparison a little shallow and Hopkins wont be 'giving' Oscar the first four rounds either.

And if Vargas can get Oscar to the ropes, Hopkins sure will. I don't see Hopkins keeping Oscar down though, he's not a concussive, light-switch puncher. This is a distance fight, no question.

But whilst Hopkins may not be a knockout puncher himself, he's gonna be smiling at any success Oscar has...Hopkins chin is stellar and he's too cute to be caught out by punches. He'll see everyone of them coming.

I'd say Hopkins grows into the fight, which may well be level after four or five rounds, and then slowly has more success as Oscar moves less and stays in range. Hopkins then slowly begins to break up his opponent putting rounds in the bag. Whether we reach a points decision will depend on Oscar, if he tries to rally in the championship rounds and press the action - Hopkins could well bust him up and stop a tiring DLH. Because DLH is rarely more effective in the second half of the fight.

However, the scenario I see playing out is Hopkins winning on points, with perhaps a late knockdown to make it clear. And Oscar maintaining enough reputation by lasting the distance fairly competitively to make any future Tito bout at middleweight marketable.

Hopkins UD12

Since I wrote this submission - the DLH SD12 option is very relevant, but Hopkins is too shrewd to allow it to be close enought to facilitate a robbery....I expect a 116-111 / 116-112 type margin.

[MightyWarrior]

Hopkins: "I'm going to set a fierce pace, It's going to be a Marvin Hagler-Tommy Hearns kind of fight. If he takes a deep breath, I'm telling you, it's over."



Oscar had his game face on, saying very little. "I know I can win," said the Golden Boy. "I'm not thinking of anything else because all I want is those belts. Believe me when I tell you, those belts are mine."

[Dynamite Dean Phillips]

Delahoya too busy. Hopkins picks his shots too much for a contest like this. Unless he is busier in the fight, then Oscar on points. Even if he picks up the pace, I still feel the better variety and better workrate coming from Delahoya. Workrate and variety is what got him through the Sturm fight, winning clearly in my opinion. I don't think Hopkins will stop him. He has the power to hurt him, but can't see Delahoya staying in range long enough.

Oscar UD

[jamesmcdonnell]

I'm very surprised to hear you say that.

It's worth noting that the normally very busy William Joppy, who is at least a natural light middle, was able to land very few shots on Nard, and I think the same thing will happen to Oscar. It's all well and good being busy, but you've got to land, and Bernard is good at sitting in the pocket on top of his opponent without being hit.

Oscar has never fought anyone at light middle or middle who will prepare him for Bernard. For what it's worth, I think he would have really struggled against Winky too, fighting Mosley has flattered Oscar, and I believe he's gone up in weight just that bit too far.

I will never count him out entirely, he's too good for that, but I don't think he's a better fighter all around the Hopkins. Flashier, faster, but in terms of fundamentals, Nard does it better, more compact punching, tighter defence, and more subtle use of shots.

[BubiScholz]

Hopkins KO 2, he will show a bad beating.

[nickd]

De La Hoya on points in a close fight.

[Kilburn]

Every fight Hopkins has had since Tito has been a marking time, potential banana skin match while he waits around for another big one.

I reckon we'll see a pretty fired up Executioner let off the leash on Saturday night.

[jamesmcdonnell]

Yep, I reckon that could be the case, I think if he sees any weakness in Oscar, he's simply going to smash him up, I don't think he's going to leave it to the judges unless he has to. I have serious doubts about how well Oscar's chin will hold up to Bernard's shots, he may not be a devastating puncher at middleweight, but he's still a middleweight.

[Dynamite Dean Phillips]

My head says Hopkins because he's a natural middleweight, but given his age, (I thought he lacked interest in his last outing; I was certainly expecting a lot more from him.) we may start to see his age catching up with him in what should be a war this time. My heart is saying Delahoya, because he is the more talented obviously and this time I think he's the more ambitious of the two for this contest. I think he will simply outwork Hopkins, with Hopkins continually looking for that equalizer only never to find it.

[Loftgroov]

Yep, I reckon that could be the case, I think if he sees any weakness in Oscar, he's simply going to smash him up, I don't think he's going to leave it to the judges unless he has to. I have serious doubts about how well Oscar's chin will hold up to Bernard's shots, he may not be a devastating puncher at middleweight, but he's still a middleweight.

DLH chin is superb. I think Nard wins, at least in the fans eyes if not the judges final score cards, but I'd be suprised if this didn't go the distance.

[Loftgroov]

My heart is saying Delahoya, because he is the more talented obviously and this time I think he's the more ambitious of the two for this contest.

I disagree DLH is more "talented". Of course "talent" is a very subjective term, but Nard has it as much as DLH does. I agree with the ambition statement though.

I think Nard retires after this figh no matter what happens. For DLH though it would signal a renaissance for his career.

[Dynamite Dean Phillips]

My heart is saying Delahoya, because he is the more talented obviously and this time I think he's the more ambitious of the two for this contest.

I disagree DLH is more "talented". Of course "talent" is a very subjective term, but Nard has it as much as DLH does. I agree with the ambition statement though.

I think Nard retires after this figh no matter what happens. For DLH though it would signal a renaissance for his career.

Talent I was talking about was in terms of speed and combination punching.

[REAL_DEAL]

ready in shape and ready to defend his titles.

[Loftgroov]

ready in shape and ready to defend his titles.

Looks like Nard needs to lay off the beers....

[jamesmcdonnell]

My heart is saying Delahoya, because he is the more talented obviously and this time I think he's the more ambitious of the two for this contest.

I disagree DLH is more "talented". Of course "talent" is a very subjective term, but Nard has it as much as DLH does. I agree with the ambition statement though.

I think Nard retires after this figh no matter what happens. For DLH though it would signal a renaissance for his career.

Bernard has already clearly stated that he is in talks with Tarver's people about challenging him for the titles, so what you are saying is I'm afraid wrong. Nard knows that if he wins this, he will be in a great position do you think after years of being on the outside looking in he will allow the chance to capitalise on his name to fly by, not on your nelly.

DLH is more naturally talented than Nard, but Nard is the better all around fighter.

[jamesmcdonnell]

Yep, I reckon that could be the case, I think if he sees any weakness in Oscar, he's simply going to smash him up, I don't think he's going to leave it to the judges unless he has to. I have serious doubts about how well Oscar's chin will hold up to Bernard's shots, he may not be a devastating puncher at middleweight, but he's still a middleweight.

DLH chin is superb. I think Nard wins, at least in the fans eyes if not the judges final score cards, but I'd be suprised if this didn't go the distance.

DLH has a great chin, but he's never faced anyone who is a genuine middleweight who could really bang. Tito was a great banger, but not a genuine middleweight.

Nard wont stop him with one punch, but down the stretch if Oscar stops moving, Hopkins is going to take him apart piece by piece. I believe the fact that Oscar isn't a puncher will allow Bernard to get to him quicker than he could Tito, he had to take his time against Tito, because otherwise he risked getting tagged one time too many, against Oscar, he can afford to be brave.

[MightyWarrior]

Tito is eyeing the winner of Saturday's fight, he's said as much already. Scores to be settled all round. Hop would love to dish out a 2nd beating, and Oscar would kill for a rematch....not sure he gets by Mayorga though.

[Kilburn]

I don't believe even Mayorga can walk through Tito's left hook, although I'm sure he'll give it an honest try.

God it's great to see Trinidad coming back, a modern day Latin legend.

[MightyWarrior]

I don't believe even Mayorga can walk through Tito's left hook,

Sounds like he'd have trouble walking through the doorway at the moment.