Graham Houston picks Dirrell to win

[whiskey]

http://www.fightwriter.com/?q=node/2421

“There are fight analysts who wait until the last minute before making up their minds as to who will win. ... They compare styles and pore over records. ... They weigh tangibles and intangibles. They reach an opinion after being gnawed by doubts and nagged by uncertainties.”

Those words were written by a New York Times sports columnist named Arthur Daley in 1954, and they reached out to me across the years because I have been weighed down by doubts and uncertainties while trying to formulate an opinion on Saturday’s “Super Six” fight between Carl Froch and Andre Dirrell, which will be televised live on Showtime from Nottingham in the English midlands (starting time is around 2 a.m. on Sunday in the U.K.).

This intriguing fight, which will be for Froch’s WBC super middleweight title, pits two undefeated fighters against each other.

Froch will have the backing of a packed, roaring hometown crowd. He is seen as the stronger, tougher, heavier handed and more battle-tested of the two men.

Dirrell, a U.S. Olympic bronze medallist, is a southpaw with a switch-hitting method, and he is fast, flashy, athletic, naturally gifted and quite a good hitter himself.

Froch showed he has the stuff to come through in tough fights against boxers of world-championship calibre in his wins over Jean Pascal and Jermain Taylor. With Dirrell, we just don’t know to what heights he can rise because he has never been involved in what some might call a gut-check type of fight. Maybe he will wilt under the sort of pressure that Froch will be exerting, or perhaps he will scale the heights with a performance of breathtaking excellence. No one can be sure about Dirrell, one way or the other — I know I’m not.

There seems to be a bit of bad feeling between the boxers, with Froch apparently taking offence at the stream of derogatory comments supposedly emanating from the challenger. I suspect that many of these provocative quotes were, shall we say, “suggested” by the Dirrell camp’s ace publicist, Fred Sternberg, who has as usual done his job in helping to keep the pot boiling in the weeks leading up to the fight.

Froch says he is going to teach Dirrell a lesson by hunting him down and destroying him, but the challenger from Flint, MI, seems not one whit unnerved and told the British fighter: “It’s over!” when they exchanged heated words at a media gathering this week.

Dirrell's confidence seems genuine, but unbeaten American fighters have not always held up well under pressure on meeting a more experienced British champion on their opponent’s home turf.

British colleagues tell me that Jeff Lacy was looking edgy and unsure in the last few days before his bout with Joe Calzaghe as he sensed the British fighter’s tremendous confidence. Glyn Leach, editor of Boxing Monthly , told me he saw a noticeable change in Gerald McClellan’s originally arrogant attitude when the ill-fated big hitter had his first face-to-face meeting with a ready-to-fight Nigel Benn, while a big, fiercely partisan crowd outdoors in Glasgow and Jim Watt’s solid professionalism were too much of a one-two punch for Olympic gold medallist Howard Davis Jr. to handle.

I have not sensed any faltering of resolve on Dirrell’s part. He seems, to me, to be a young man who feels his moment of destiny has arrived.

Dirrell demonstrated character and a fighter’s instinct when, dropped by a heavy right hand from a boxer named Alfonso Rocha in the third round of his seventh bout, he rallied to inflict damage in the next round, bringing blood gushing from Rocha’s nose, before going on to pound out a unanimous decision win.

There was a shaky moment for Dirrell, too, in the opening round of his bout with Anthony Hanshaw, a former top-calibre amateur. Dirrell seemed to have been dropped — although the referee ruled a slip — but he rallied to demolish his man in five rounds. I consider this to be Dirrell’s most impressive performance because in his last bout Hanshaw had given Roy Jones Jr. a much more competitive bout than suggested by a couple of wide scorecards from the Mississippi judges.

So, we know Dirrell can go down, but we also know that he can fight back brilliantly after visiting the canvas.

Froch showed he, too, can get up to win when he came back from the first knockdown of his career to outlast and overpower Jermain Taylor in the 12th round last April.

There is an almost frightening intensity about Froch, who is dangerous from first bell to last — he is a fighter who will never give up trying to hurt his opponent no matter how badly the fight might seem to be going.

Froch can be hit somewhat easily, though, with his hands down, at times recklessly aggressive style. Dirrell isn’t considered a huge hitter but he carries respectable power in his left hand. I consider Froch to be the puncher in the fight, but Dirrell can make the British boxer pay a price for marching straight ahead.

The fight with Taylor showed Froch’s strength, power, toughness, tenacity and will to win. It also showed that a fast, sharp boxer can hit him and get away before Froch can reply. I think we can all agree that Dirrell is fast and sharp. He will be looking to hit Froch and not wait for the receipt. If Dirrell can keep doing this, without running into a big punch, he can put himself into a position of ascendancy.

Dirrell’s technique can be faulted, a certain lack of smoothness, maybe, a tendency to paw with the right hand, but his speed and athleticism lets him get away with it.

I keep thinking back to Froch’s fight with Taylor and how the American boxer seemed able to land punches whenever he wanted. I do accept that Froch went into that fight less than 100 per cent physically after suffering an ankle injury that disrupted his training and then struggling to get over jet lag, and he has admitted that he felt some anxiety in his first big-time U.S. TV fight. I believe that Froch is a better fighter than he seemed to be against Taylor. However, the way Froch was getting hit has to be troubling to his supporters. On Saturday night (early Sunday in Britain) he will be in the ring with a big, super-quick, unorthodox and, I believe, dangerous opponent. Dirrell is just the type of fighter, I feel, who can give Froch a desperately difficult evening.

Froch was helped enormously in the fight with Taylor by the American boxer’s late-rounds weariness. Dirrell trained for this fight at high altitude at Big Bear Mountain in California, he is probably in the finest condition he has ever been in, and I don’t see him as the type who will run out of gas the way that Taylor did. I do think that Dirrell will have moments of crisis in this fight, but I think he can come through them. I can see Dirrell frustrating Froch, hitting and not getting hit, and freewheeling his way to an upset win on points.

Last Updated: October 16, 2009 7:08pm

[whiskey]

Whilst he is entitled like the rest to an opinion, i think (hope) he's called this one wrong.

To write that Dirrell beating Rocha is a plus, for me that fight was a big minus. Rocha (a bum) who with just 6 or 7 fights experience, a couple of losses, managed to drop Dirrell and extend him. Rocha aint fought since.

Also his opinion on Hanshaw seems a bit inflated and most observers thought that Jones carried him (like he did with Tito) when they fought.

Dirrell has been edgy and came in overweight, whilst only by a smidgen, is still surprising considering its the biggest fight of his entire life. His hotel was 3 mins walk to the market square, so he had no real excuses to be over.

[steve689]

I think he's right, I'm backing Dirrell too, although I hope I'm wrong.

[jamesmcdonnell]

i watched the direll hanshaw fight yesterday, and i wasnt that impressed to be honest, he is very quick, but he's not the greatest mover, and he wont find it so easy to hit and move against somoene with a reach the same size as his.

[Asterix]

So Graham Houston's argument is that Dirrell will be OK because he trained at altitude? OK.

And his comment about Dirrell having power in his left hand. Dirrell only has big power with his telegraphed uppercut, throwing his whole body into it. Dirrell is unlikely to use that uppercut against Froch; he can't use it at a higher level without paying for it.

[Autobarn]

i watched the direll hanshaw fight yesterday, and i wasnt that impressed to be honest, he is very quick, but he's not the greatest mover, and he wont find it so easy to hit and move against somoene with a reach the same size as his.

he seemed very jittery in that fight, didn't he? if i remember right, he took a knee, not from a punch, but because he'd been cornered. he looks like one of those fighters who are very wary of taking a shot.

he does look a fabulous athletic talent, lots of speed, flash and some power. but like one writer for ring mag said, dirrell is either all offense or all defense (the curtis stephens fight, where he literally ran and disgraced himself.) there doesn't seem to be any middle ground for him, a sign that perhaps he hasn't matured tactically and mentally.

i think it's a lot easier to be all offense vs the little victr oganovs and co, of the world.

still, should be good viewing.

[whiskey]

I dont think that the press coverage has portrayed Dirrell correctly or not.

Whilst he is a generally confident guy, many detected chinks in his make up, the way he went totally overboard at the press conference and jumped into 'gobshite' mode.

A lot is being made of this 'speed' but the last couple of opponents have been faster than Froch yet lost. I'd also argue that Pascal has a better physique/ chin than Dirrell and that Taylor has that experience, pedigree and ability.

Dirrell has lots of natural attributes, but i don't think he's the complete article - especially given the fact he's not fought anyone, nor has he seen the later rounds in a war.

I know everyone say's "Well Leonard, Duran etc all stepped up once upon a time" but i just cant help but think it's only because he's American he's been involved.

Gary Shaw brought Lacy over remember.... !

[punchers chance]

he could be right as this is a very tough fight for Froch as styles make fights and Dirrell has the kind of style that could drive Froch mad. We should remember that Taylor was outboxing Froch easily in their fight and i think Dirrell is more tricky, younger and a lot more hungry.

but if he wants the nod from the judges he's going to have to throw enough leather to win the rounds.
If dirrell is as easy to hit as people are saying, froch should get enough opportunities to land his shots and get on top

[Asterix]

he does look a fabulous athletic talent, lots of speed, flash and some power. but like one writer for ring mag said, dirrell is either all offense or all defense (the curtis stephens fight, where he literally ran and disgraced himself.) there doesn't seem to be any middle ground for him, a sign that perhaps he hasn't matured tactically and mentally.

That's a very good point. It will be very interesting to see what he does in the face of adversity.

Whilst he is a generally confident guy, many detected chinks in his make up, the way he went totally overboard at the press conference and jumped into 'gobshite' mode.

Dirrell must have had a load of nervous energy as he exploded with energy with his trash talk. Dirrell will be very nervous on the night, and that will sap some energy. I think he will have trained well enough for it not to be a problem, though. If Dirrell's lagging at the end of the fight it's because of Froch's strengths, not Dirrell's weaknesses.

[jamesmcdonnell]

he could be right as this is a very tough fight for Froch as styles make fights and Dirrell has the kind of style that could drive Froch mad. We should remember that Taylor was outboxing Froch easily in their fight and i think Dirrell is more tricky, younger and a lot more hungry.

and nowhere near as proven or experienced as taylor.

there are loads of fighters who look like future stars on the way up, until they run into a world class fighter.

[tonyevs]

The thing is. That Carl, his team, and his friends are all banking on Froch wearing Dirrell down. No longer are they claiming his boxing skills and big punch will get the guy out of there .. Its always ` the guy will tire, and Carl will take him out ..` … so what if the guy doesn’t tire? And where have these boxing skills gone?

Also. I know some on here like to look at it differently. But Taylor, who had struggled to show much of a big punch for the last few years .. at a lower weight, and against even lower weight guys. Had Carl down heavily. And for me, he also looked to be carrying the heavier punches until he tired as has been his usual downfall in fights.

Will Dirrell be the one to follow the blueprint that Charles Adamu first showed us on how to beat Froch?
I honestly don’t know. Simply because I haven’t seen very much of Dirrell.

[punchers chance]

The thing is. That Carl, his team, and his friends are all banking on Froch wearing Dirrell down. No longer are they claiming his boxing skills and big punch will get the guy out of there .. Its always ` the guy will tire, and Carl will take him out ..` … so what if the guy doesn’t tire? And where have these boxing skills gone?

let's be honest - the defensive boxing skills have never been there. he relies on a good arsenal of power punches, mental strength, fitness and a great chin.
the blueprint for beating Froch has been layed down by many. Brian magee outboxed him for quite a while, and that Aussie Westerman couldn't miss him for 5 rounds.
But give Froch his due, he is relentless.
Dirrell will know he's been in a fight if he does pull it off.

[jamesmcdonnell]

The Houst is, hands down, the best picker of boxing in the world and has been for 25years. I think Froch is in trouble esp if he starts lazy and gives up first three or four rounds. He has to throw more punches, be prepared to miss, and go after the Yank (who is a runner with very fast hands).

i agree, houston is the mustard but i think he's overrating dirrell.

[Asterix]

The Houst is, hands down, the best picker of boxing in the world and has been for 25years. I think Froch is in trouble esp if he starts lazy and gives up first three or four rounds. He has to throw more punches, be prepared to miss, and go after the Yank (who is a runner with very fast hands).

Really? I just had a quick look at a few of his previews and I don't see it.

[Datsue]

Really? I just had a quick look at a few of his previews and I don't see it.

Graham Houston has been American editor of Boxing Monthly for donkeys' years, was (I think, please correct me if I'm wrong) American boss at Boxing News before that, & is massively respected within the fight game by just about everyone. His analysis is better than his picking, if you ask me, but anyway.

He shows up most boxing writers for what they are, hacks let loose at a keyboard.

I think it's churlish to adopt your position without any kind of previous experience of the guy.

PS: I'm not actually going along with Graham on this one. I'm happy to admit I have no idea what's going to happen!

[Asterix]

Really? I just had a quick look at a few of his previews and I don't see it.

Graham Houston has been American editor of Boxing Monthly for donkeys' years, was (I think, please correct me if I'm wrong) American boss at Boxing News before that, & is massively respected within the fight game by just about everyone. His analysis is better than his picking, if you ask me, but anyway.

He shows up most boxing writers for what they are, hacks let loose at a keyboard.

I think it's churlish to adopt your position without any kind of previous experience of the guy.

PS: I'm not actually going along with Graham on this one. I'm happy to admit I have no idea what's going to happen!

I'm hardly being churlish. I'm simply stating that recently he hasn't been calling the way the fights pan out correctly. Nothing more, nothing less.

[hitman_hatton1]

The Houst is, hands down, the best picker of boxing in the world and has been for 25years. I think Froch is in trouble esp if he starts lazy and gives up first three or four rounds. He has to throw more punches, be prepared to miss, and go after the Yank (who is a runner with very fast hands).

dirrell is slick alright.

see froch having trouble pinning him down.

pascal and taylor have fast hands.

but neither are good movers.

it's always been a weak point of taylor's.

always been a bit stiff.

all will come out a little bit later.

[alexpaterson]

I also see Dirrell winning using his fast hand's and feet to get a decision. Dirrell winning the early round's and when Froch comes on strong later Dirrell can move and hold to hang onto to a clear decision victory

[MightyWarrior]

He's not often wrong is ol Mr Houston. I can see why he's going for Dirrell too - just because he's relatively unproven, doesn't mean he wont step up when the moment arrives.

Might be sooner than they wanted, possibly, but take away his last round heroics and Carl was made to look pretty pedestrian against Taylor. And I thought Dirrell showed a real fighter's heart, getting up from that heavy knockdown, posted on here awhile back. And a good chin too - that looked a jawbreaker free shot he took.

I'm really, really hoping Carl can grind him down for a late stopage, behind on points maybe. But it's a big ask, to do that twice in a row, if he does get outboxed and fall behind again.

I'll stick with Froch, getting there late with some heavy punches - not too confident about that though.

A blinding couple of fights coming up, just what boxing needs, shame the coverage over here is so fecked up & limited though.

[Asterix]

Houston picked well for Abraham vs Taylor: http://www.fightwriter.com/?q=node/2420

Let's hope he's wrong about Dirrell, though.

[fatman]

The Houst is, hands down, the best picker of boxing in the world and has been for 25years. I think Froch is in trouble esp if he starts lazy and gives up first three or four rounds. He has to throw more punches, be prepared to miss, and go after the Yank (who is a runner with very fast hands).

Really? I just had a quick look at a few of his previews and I don't see it.

Houston is top class. Absoultely superb research and reading of fights.

[crusader]

Looks like he was dead on about how each fight would play out.

[steve689]

Graham was right. Rooooobbbbbeeerrryyy