Ratings - please read before commenting - Archived

[conan_the_cribber]

Besides, here's a card containg some upcoming 3star men's bouts from Japan. Are you trying to indicate to me, that these bouts are just as meaningful as a Kentikian vs Sahin bout? Just one of these eight fighters is ranked in the top 30 of their division. The fight between Matsumoto and Tojo is a fight between two fighters ranked outside the top 100. Are you really trying to convince me, that this fight should be viewed as the same level as the Kentikian bout?

You know the answer.

This has got nothing to do with the level of a matchup in women's boxing, it's got to do with the vastness of bouts in the men's boxing world. Look at Matsumoto's record, jeez, his best win is against a 9-5 fighter and he's lost to a bunch of other scrubs. There is nothing in a who beat's who algorithm, that would say Matsumoto's record is better than Kentikians. It's just that the value of each win in the men's world is proportionally higher, as a by product of the larger number of interactions. Male boxers have more chance to accumulate points, by building on a century of results.

I imagine, if you had the number of stars for bouts in the 1900's and 1910's then there woulc've been scarcely 5 star bouts. Over time, the criteria becomes less meaningful, because of points inflation. I imagine the proportion of five star bouts in the 40s and 50s was really high, due to the high number of bouts in those days. I imagine it drops off in the 80s and 90s due to the lack of bouts.

Point inflation is the issue. You need to find an algorithm that works for women's boxing now. Not in thirty years time, when the historical bout base will be big enough to justify more stars.

Unless of course, you really think Matsumoto vs Jockstrap is worth MORE stars than the Kentikian bout (because it was a two star bout).

conan








Saturday 17 October 2009
Korakuen Hall, Tokyo, Japan
8 minimumweight Toshimasa Ouchi 10(2)-5(1)-1
SC Makoto Suzuki 22(14)-14(5)-2


8 super flyweight Yuki Nasu 17(13)-4(2)-0
SC Toyoto Shiraishi 14(6)-5(0)-1

bout subject to commission approval / change

8 featherweight Ryoichi Matsumoto 9(0)-6(4)-0
SC Tsuyoshi Tojo 8(2)-6(0)-3

bout subject to commission approval / change

8 super flyweight Masafumi Tonomura 11(5)-5(0)-1
SC Junnosuke Nagayasu 11(3)-6(2)-0

[computerrank]

No it wasn't. I wish I had done a screen grab. But in the schedule listings, it was clearly 2 star, hence my longish mail.

You are right, Sahin regained her 100points+ rating after the close decision against Kentikian.

[computerrank]

@conan

There is a valid point regarding the lower weight divisions in men boxing.

The current men rating points are adjusted with a competitive factor to make division excellence comparable over the weight divisions - used for p4p purpose - which is currently applied in the weaker lower men weight divisions.

This factor was not applied in the women ratings as they are too weak today generally.

So the women rating could be consistently enhanced also - by the maximum factor of 3.3 for internal current ratings of 150 and higher - decreasing to 1 for the basic ratings of 50 and lower.

So Kentikian's rating would have been about 656 instead of 197 and Sahin's rating about 104 instead of 73 - and this would have been regarded a 3 stars bout.

... and a bout at todays women top level with both women above 150 internal points today - would result in an enhanced rating of 500+ - and would result in a 5 stars bout.

[Asterix]

Personally, I would prefer to see female bouts have the ability to reach 5 stars. The 5 stars should be an indication of how important the bout is in that sport; and a top female fight is very important in female boxing. Comparing female boxing to male boxing is unfair.

Good to see you're taking the suggestions on board, computerrank.

[conan_the_cribber]

Yeah Martin,

thanks for listening.

cheers

conan

[computerrank]

John just launched the new release of the ratings ... women now can get more points in the top range ... 5 star bouts are possible now.

The bouts star rating will be updated tomorrow morning.

[conan_the_cribber]

Hi Martin,

thanks for the news. Whilst I was primarily interested in getting the woman's stars sorted out, I'd like to come back to one point of my justification. One of the three star bouts I quoted was this one.

8 featherweight Ryoichi Matsumoto 9(0)-6(4)-0
SC Tsuyoshi Tojo 8(2)-6(0)-3

Both fighters are outside of the top 100 in their division and have a 40% loss rate and have beat no-one of significance and have a combined victorious by KO ratio of under 10%. I think this is a long, long, long way from being a three star bout, yet somehow it is. This is a bout that I might give one star. I'm not even seriously considering a second star, and a third is just magic mushroom stuff.

Any explanation for this?

To put it in perspective. I looked at upcoming heavyweight bouts and found

*** McCall vs Whittaker
*** Adamek vs Golota
*** Williamson vs Austin
*** Sexton vs Rogan
*** Dimentrenko vs Krasniqi.

Now I look at these matchups and I think, jeez your algorithm has really hit the mark. Perfect weighting. These are good interesting fights between two fringe contenders. We're not talking four star stuff eliminator type stuff like Potvekin vs Chambers, or even Chambers vs Dimentrenko or five star stuff like Wlad vs Chagaev or Haye vs Valuev. The weighting is absolutely perfect in my eyes.

Now contrast these three star matchups with the two Japanese scrubs mentioned above. There is no way they are of equal standing. So I guess your extra weighting for lower weights is a tad too generous.

cheers

conan

[computerrank]

Hi Martin,

thanks for the news. Whilst I was primarily interested in getting the woman's stars sorted out, I'd like to come back to one point of my justification. One of the three star bouts I quoted was this one.

8 featherweight Ryoichi Matsumoto 9(0)-6(4)-0
SC Tsuyoshi Tojo 8(2)-6(0)-3

Both fighters are outside of the top 100 in their division and have a 40% loss rate and have beat no-one of significance and have a combined victorious by KO ratio of under 10%. I think this is a long, long, long way from being a three star bout, yet somehow it is. This is a bout that I might give one star. I'm not even seriously considering a second star, and a third is just magic mushroom stuff.

Any explanation for this?

To put it in perspective. I looked at upcoming heavyweight bouts and found

*** McCall vs Whittaker
*** Adamek vs Golota
*** Williamson vs Austin
*** Sexton vs Rogan
*** Dimentrenko vs Krasniqi.

Now I look at these matchups and I think, jeez your algorithm has really hit the mark. Perfect weighting. These are good interesting fights between two fringe contenders. We're not talking four star stuff eliminator type stuff like Potvekin vs Chambers, or even Chambers vs Dimentrenko or five star stuff like Wlad vs Chagaev or Haye vs Valuev. The weighting is absolutely perfect in my eyes.

Now contrast these three star matchups with the two Japanese scrubs mentioned above. There is no way they are of equal standing. So I guess your extra weighting for lower weights is a tad too generous.

cheers

conan

Conan,

- Japanese boxers tend to have mixed-up records, as they are used to have competitive bouts - not the classic record building you are used to see. KO rate is also no criteria.
- featherweight's #103 (of 1201 boxers) shows 141 points as does heavyweight's #103 (of 1088) with 141 points
- the pointage level of every division is bound to an average of 500 for #8 to #12

- by the way - either you look at competition level at specific divisions (as you argued with the women bouts) - or you look at some abolute level, whatever this might be.

[conan_the_cribber]

Hi Martin,

thanks for the news. Whilst I was primarily interested in getting the woman's stars sorted out, I'd like to come back to one point of my justification. One of the three star bouts I quoted was this one.

8 featherweight Ryoichi Matsumoto 9(0)-6(4)-0
SC Tsuyoshi Tojo 8(2)-6(0)-3

Both fighters are outside of the top 100 in their division and have a 40% loss rate and have beat no-one of significance and have a combined victorious by KO ratio of under 10%. I think this is a long, long, long way from being a three star bout, yet somehow it is. This is a bout that I might give one star. I'm not even seriously considering a second star, and a third is just magic mushroom stuff.

Any explanation for this?

To put it in perspective. I looked at upcoming heavyweight bouts and found

*** McCall vs Whittaker
*** Adamek vs Golota
*** Williamson vs Austin
*** Sexton vs Rogan
*** Dimentrenko vs Krasniqi.

Now I look at these matchups and I think, jeez your algorithm has really hit the mark. Perfect weighting. These are good interesting fights between two fringe contenders. We're not talking four star stuff eliminator type stuff like Potvekin vs Chambers, or even Chambers vs Dimentrenko or five star stuff like Wlad vs Chagaev or Haye vs Valuev. The weighting is absolutely perfect in my eyes.

Now contrast these three star matchups with the two Japanese scrubs mentioned above. There is no way they are of equal standing. So I guess your extra weighting for lower weights is a tad too generous.

cheers

conan

Conan,

- Japanese boxers tend to have mixed-up records, as they are used to have competitive bouts - not the classic record building you are used to see. KO rate is also no criteria.
- featherweight's #103 (of 1201 boxers) shows 141 points as does heavyweight's #103 (of 1088) with 141 points
- the pointage level of every division is bound to an average of 500 for #8 to #12

- by the way - either you look at competition level at specific divisions (as you argued with the women bouts) - or you look at some abolute level, whatever this might be.

- Ok, I'll find some non Jap examples. But maybe you are right.
- Interesting that the pts are similar but the boxers I mentioned are at 18, 21, 36, 46, 47, 50, 51 and #1 cruiser. These are clearly contender fights, whereas the jap featherweight matchup is clearly a pretender matchup. Maybe there is some benefit of incorporating the ranking and not just the points in the stars. Is there some sort of inflation going on for the lower weighted fighters.
- What do you mean with "bound to an average"?

conan

[computerrank]

... bound to an average means ...

The average rating of #8 to #12 of every men division is SET to a value of 500.

[conan_the_cribber]

... bound to an average means ...

The average rating of #8 to #12 of every men division is SET to a value of 500.

Umm, no it's not e.g Light Heavy.

8 Jean Pascal 502 24(16)-1(0)-0
9 Chris Henry 449 24(19)-2(0)-0
10 Nathan Cleverly 438 18(8)-0(0)-0
11 Gabriel Campillo 419 19(6)-2(1)-0
12 Hugo Hernan Garay 366

Unless you mean, there is some factor in the star rating which scales the weight up to (or down to) 500.

[computerrank]

... bound to an average means ...

The average rating of #8 to #12 of every men division is SET to a value of 500.

Umm, no it's not e.g Light Heavy.

8 Jean Pascal 502 24(16)-1(0)-0
9 Chris Henry 449 24(19)-2(0)-0
10 Nathan Cleverly 438 18(8)-0(0)-0
11 Gabriel Campillo 419 19(6)-2(1)-0
12 Hugo Hernan Garay 366

Unless you mean, there is some factor in the star rating which scales the weight up to (or down to) 500.

The average is based on the division assignment of bout tracking (representing the real competition - division with best performance in last year) - not on the editors assignment. E.g. Erdei is assigned to Cruiserweight by the editors.

[conan_the_cribber]

... bound to an average means ...

The average rating of #8 to #12 of every men division is SET to a value of 500.

Umm, no it's not e.g Light Heavy.

8 Jean Pascal 502 24(16)-1(0)-0
9 Chris Henry 449 24(19)-2(0)-0
10 Nathan Cleverly 438 18(8)-0(0)-0
11 Gabriel Campillo 419 19(6)-2(1)-0
12 Hugo Hernan Garay 366

Unless you mean, there is some factor in the star rating which scales the weight up to (or down to) 500.

The average is based on the division assignment of bout tracking (representing the real competition - division with best performance in last year) - not on the editors assignment. E.g. Erdei is assigned to Cruiserweight by the editors.

Still not getting it sorry.

[computerrank]

...
Still not getting it sorry.

Garay, Campillo etc are not in this competition set of top 12 light heavyweights as Erdei (editor move to cruiserweight), Clinton Woods (editor move to inactivity) etc are rated higher at light heavyweight (and had their last year top performances there).

[giacomino]

So this Thai fighter http://www.boxrec.com/list_bouts.php?hu ... &cat=boxer named Paipharob Por Nobnom fought his debut earlier this month and knocked out an 11-9 journeyman.
Somehow that earned Nobnom 687 points and he is now ranked No. 5 among flyweights IN THE WORLD. How is that possible?
The rankings below junior bantamweight are really messed up and seem to be bias toward fighters from Japan and Thailand. The point totals they receive for beating mediocre opposition are ridiculous

[jujigatame]

Nobnom being ranked #5 is the result of a strange series of events. Basically Ratanapol Sor Vorapin managed to get ranked very highly, but was then KOed by the journeyman Ray Megrino, who was then KOed by Nobnom.

I'd be interested in knowing where Vorapin was ranked before losing to Megrino, and where Megrino was ranked before losing to Nobnom. Something went a little bit wrong in this whole sequence but I don't have the knowledge to say where exactly it happened.

[giacomino]

Nobnom being ranked #5 is the result of a strange series of events. Basically Ratanapol Sor Vorapin managed to get ranked very highly, but was then KOed by the journeyman Ray Megrino, who was then KOed by Nobnom.

I'd be interested in knowing where Vorapin was ranked before losing to Megrino, and where Megrino was ranked before losing to Nobnom. Something went a little bit wrong in this whole sequence but I don't have the knowledge to say where exactly it happened.

Just noticed your earlier post. Glad to see someone else bring this up. I have raised the issue of inflated rankings, particularly for Japanese and Thai fighters at the lower rankings, in the past and I still am not clear on the answer. For instance, does beating a 10-5 Japanese or Thai fighter at, say flyweight, earn someone more points than beating a 10-5 Mexican, Panamanian or Argentine fighter?
As I mentioned on the other blog post, the rookie Thai fighter beat an 11-9 opponent whose claim to fame was beating an aging Vorapin, who in turn hadn't beaten a meaningful opponent since the 1990s. I imagine you're correct that Vorapin, who has beaten no-one of note for a decade, was overrated, so that made the 11-9 Megrino overrated for beating him

[jujigatame]

It'd be swell if computerrank could give us a breakdown of how this anomaly occurred.

[JCS]

Japanese fighters get lofty rankings because they pool points by staying in Japan. There are enough fighters there to build up quite a few points.

The Nobnom sequence is a tricky situation. A few one-trick ponies and a still highly ranked Vorapin, not to mention a bit of a debutant enhancement for Nobnom resulted in him holding a high spot.

[computerrank]

Jason is right - here the Boxrec rating development of 3 boxers involved:

box_0->box_1: rating of boxer before and after the bout
opp_0->opp_1: rating of opponent before and after the bout

Code: Select all

date      |division            |boxer               |opponent            |rs|dec|box_0>box_1|opp_0>opp_1
----------|--------------------|--------------------|--------------------|--|---|-----|-----|-----|-----
1990-10-04|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Chokemchart         |W |KO |    0|    0|    0|    0
1990-11-01|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Sorthanikul         |D |PTS|    0|    0|    0|    0
1990-11-22|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Sorthanikul         |W |TKO|    0|    0|    0|    0
1991-01-10|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Salothorn           |W |TKO|    0|    0|    0|    0
1991-02-07|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Singkrungthon       |W |PTS|    0|    0|    0|    0
1991-03-28|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Singkrungthon       |W |PTS|    0|    0|    0|    0
1991-06-17|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Sorthanikul         |W |PTS|    0|   34|   63|   31
1991-07-17|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Sithlakmuang        |L |PTS|   34|   26|   50|   93
1991-09-23|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Singkrungthon       |W |TKO|   26|   26|    0|    0
1991-12-23|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Sithlakmuang        |L |TKO|   26|   25|   93|  111
1992-01-29|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Sorthanikul         |W |TKO|   25|   25|    0|    0
1992-02-23|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Moril               |W |KO |   23|  112|  161|   92
1992-06-14|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Ray                 |W |KO |  119|  206|  117|   78
1992-09-06|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Tarazona            |W |KO |  206|  239|  115|   87
1992-12-10|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Melchor             |W |SD |  239|  346|  412|  325
1993-03-14|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Thomas              |W |KO |  346|  346|   38|   38
1993-06-27|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Villamor            |W |TKO|  346|  510|  345|  230
1993-09-26|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Siwalette           |W |TKO|  510|  510|    0|    0
1993-12-10|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Naranjo             |W |TKO|  510|  510|   10|   10
1994-02-27|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Magramo             |W |UD |  510|  540|  206|  176
1994-05-14|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Espanola            |W |TKO|  540|  540|   83|   83
1994-08-20|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Bolivar             |W |TKO|  540|  540|   84|   84
1994-11-12|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Rodriguez           |W |TKO|  540|  576|  215|  179
1995-02-25|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Pahayahay           |W |TKO|  503|  533|  194|  164
1995-05-20|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Flores              |W |TKO|  518|  518|  107|  107
1995-08-20|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Olarte              |W |TKO|  455|  455|    5|    5
1995-10-29|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Russell             |W |KO |  518|  518|   88|   88
1995-12-30|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Guerrero            |W |TKO|  518|  624|  369|  263
1996-03-16|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Sandoval            |W |TKO|  590|  590|   57|   57
1996-05-18|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Arlos               |W |UD |  624|  624|  113|  113
1996-07-13|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Orhaliza            |W |KO |  624|  624|   97|   97
1996-09-28|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Andrade             |W |KO |  624|  624|  102|  102
1996-11-24|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Vera                |W |KO |  624|  624|    8|    8
1997-01-18|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Felisilda           |W |KO |  590|  590|   90|   90
1997-03-22|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Doria               |W |TKO|  624|  624|   51|   51
1997-06-14|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Herrera             |W |UD |  624|  573|   66|  117
1997-08-30|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Vicente             |W |TKO|  399|  404|  112|  106
1997-12-27|Minimumweight       |Sor Vorapin         |Petelo              |L |TKO|  402|  236|  115|  331
1998-06-05|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Pahayahay           |W |KO |  207|  235|  110|   84
1998-08-12|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Ramirez             |W |KO |  252|  352|  216|  148
1998-09-20|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Navaja              |W |PTS|  310|  310|   56|   56
1998-12-18|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Grigsby             |L |UD |  352|  215|  175|  362
1999-09-03|                    |Sor Vorapin         |Rosales             |W |KO |  200|  213|   80|   67
1999-11-05|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Dima                |L |KO |  229|  156|  262|  368
2000-12-02|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Lopez               |L |TKO|  156|  156|  869|  869
2005-08-05|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |BS                  |W |UD |   18|   38|    0|    0
2005-09-02|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Beyer               |W |KO |   28|   28|    0|    0
2005-10-04|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Timor               |W |KO |   28|   28|    0|    0
2005-11-21|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |BS                  |W |TKO|   28|   61|    0|    0
2006-02-22|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Matsui              |W |KO |   44|   44|    0|    0
2006-05-10|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Okada               |W |PTS|   41|   74|   47|   39
2006-08-16|Super Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Resilay             |W |KO |   71|  117|   42|   31
2006-10-04|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Collado             |W |UD |  109|  109|    0|    0
2007-01-31|Light Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Barongsai           |W |KO |  117|  136|   70|   52
2007-03-29|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Esekio              |W |KO |  126|  126|    0|    0
2007-05-29|Super Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Okumoto             |W |TKO|  120|  120|    0|    0
2007-07-24|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Bo                  |W |KO |  126|  154|   93|   66
2007-10-03|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Emaury              |W |KO |  154|  154|   18|   18
2007-11-16|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Alhabsyi            |W |KO |  154|  184|   79|   61
2008-02-14|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Tepura              |W |TKO|  184|  242|  127|   91
2008-04-15|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Burdam              |W |KO |  242|  242|   20|   20
2008-05-23|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Silaban             |W |KO |  242|  242|   18|   18
2008-07-16|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Shuai               |W |KO |  242|  242|    0|    0
2008-10-03|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Garcia              |L |MD |  242|  183|  123|  191
2008-11-26|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Bankluaygym         |W |KO |  183|  183|    0|    0
2009-02-08|Super Flyweight     |Sor Vorapin         |Komatsu             |W |TKO|  173|  264|  156|  106
2009-05-07|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Paez                |W |KO |  279|  279|   58|   58
2009-07-10|Flyweight           |Sor Vorapin         |Megrino             |L |KO |  279|  171|  143|  301

date      |division            |boxer               |opponent            |rs|dec|box_0>box_1|opp_0>opp_1
----------|--------------------|--------------------|--------------------|--|---|-----|-----|-----|-----
2005-05-22|Flyweight           |Megrino             |Agong               |L |UD |    0|    0|    0|    0
2005-08-30|Light Flyweight     |Megrino             |Ricablanca          |W |KO |    0|    0|    0|    0
2005-09-17|Light Flyweight     |Megrino             |Tadena              |L |UD |    0|    0|   10|   12
2005-12-16|Light Flyweight     |Megrino             |Honor               |W |TKO|    0|   13|    7|    4
2006-03-18|Light Flyweight     |Megrino             |Guindolan           |W |TKO|   13|   18|    3|    3
2006-06-26|                    |Megrino             |Cuello              |W |TKO|   16|   86|   48|   28
2006-07-22|Super Flyweight     |Megrino             |Lerio               |L |UD |   75|   57|   75|  122
2006-09-22|Flyweight           |Megrino             |Garcia              |L |UD |   60|   48|  110|  135
2006-11-16|Flyweight           |Megrino             |Ebale               |W |KO |   48|   78|    9|    9
2007-03-31|Flyweight           |Megrino             |Albaracin           |W |UD |   78|  144|  108|   75
2007-07-20|Flyweight           |Megrino             |Lumacad             |L |UD |  144|   97|   70|  158
2007-10-24|Super Flyweight     |Megrino             |Wonjongkam          |L |UD |   92|   92|  652|  652
2008-01-15|Super Flyweight     |Megrino             |Lumacad             |L |UD |   92|   73|  166|  195
2008-05-11|Super Flyweight     |Megrino             |Veronque            |D |MD |   73|   57|    0|   16
2008-05-20|Super Flyweight     |Megrino             |Comen               |W |UD |   57|   67|    0|    0
2008-08-27|Super Flyweight     |Megrino             |Suico               |W |KO |   67|  135|   62|   42
2008-11-16|                    |Megrino             |Siaton              |W |TKO|  135|  136|   37|   35
2008-12-12|Super Flyweight     |Megrino             |Saengmorakot        |L |UD |  136|  106|  252|  282
2009-02-02|                    |Megrino             |Ray                 |D |PTS|  101|   89|   59|   71
2009-03-08|Flyweight           |Megrino             |Ray                 |L |KO |   99|   64|   78|  164
2009-06-20|Flyweight           |Megrino             |Alcoy               |W |TKO|   64|  143|   82|   53
2009-07-10|Flyweight           |Megrino             |Sor Vorapin         |W |KO |  143|  301|  279|  171
2009-10-09|Flyweight           |Megrino             |Por Nobnom          |L |KO |  301|  201|    0|  452

date      |division            |boxer               |opponent            |rs|dec|box_0>box_1|opp_0>opp_1
----------|--------------------|--------------------|--------------------|--|---|-----|-----|-----|-----
2009-10-09|Flyweight           |Por Nobnom          |Megrino             |W |KO |    0|  452|  301|  201

[conan_the_cribber]

Hi Martin,

I can't help but notice in the examples above, that each bout ends in a net plus e.g. before = 279+143 = 422 and after = 171 + 301 = 472.

2009-07-10|Flyweight |Sor Vorapin |Megrino |L |KO | 279| 171| 143| 301

Sure, the points decay over time, but I expect the effect of the bouts to be compounded by subsequent matchups because most fighters fight at least twice a year. In this case Por Nobrom benefits from the net plus of the previous bout. This is what I was trying to get at in the other posts. That there is a points inflation in the men's world, that due to a century of matchups, and non-zero sum matchups, that a win in the men's world is worth more than a win in the woman's world. Anyhow, that it is no longer a problem, as you fixed it with that scaling factor.

Anyhow, regarding the current dilema.

2009-10-09|Flyweight |Por Nobnom |Megrino |W |KO | 0| 452| 301| 201

Although you have to take into account the net plus, I'm surprised by the ratio here. Before = 0+301 = 301 vs after 452 + 201 = 653. In other words, the points in the system have more than doubled because of one bout. In practically every other bout that involves two fighters with more than 0 pts, the ratio is around a 10% increase in total pts in the system. When a 0pt fight is involved, and the 0pt fighter wins, then the ratio is around 200% (based on the small sample above).

Perhaps that could be tuned a bit.

cheers

conan

[computerrank]

Hi Martin,

I can't help but notice in the examples above, that each bout ends in a net plus e.g. before = 279+143 = 422 and after = 171 + 301 = 472.

2009-07-10|Flyweight |Sor Vorapin |Megrino |L |KO | 279| 171| 143| 301

Sure, the points decay over time, but I expect the effect of the bouts to be compounded by subsequent matchups because most fighters fight at least twice a year. In this case Por Nobrom benefits from the net plus of the previous bout. This is what I was trying to get at in the other posts. That there is a points inflation in the men's world, that due to a century of matchups, and non-zero sum matchups, that a win in the men's world is worth more than a win in the woman's world. Anyhow, that it is no longer a problem, as you fixed it with that scaling factor.

Anyhow, regarding the current dilema.

2009-10-09|Flyweight |Por Nobnom |Megrino |W |KO | 0| 452| 301| 201

Although you have to take into account the net plus, I'm surprised by the ratio here. Before = 0+301 = 301 vs after 452 + 201 = 653. In other words, the points in the system have more than doubled because of one bout. In practically every other bout that involves two fighters with more than 0 pts, the ratio is around a 10% increase in total pts in the system. When a 0pt fight is involved, and the 0pt fighter wins, then the ratio is around 200% (based on the small sample above).

Perhaps that could be tuned a bit.

cheers

conan

Conan,

the sum of the points after a bout is always higher than before the bout, if an inferior or slightly lower rated boxer wins. There is an extra bonus for these winners.

The rating system needs a bonus system like this, as otherwise the system would never take off and keep flying, with all boxers starting from 0 and having continually boxers quit boxing. This bonus is 50 points at maximum.

Additionally there is a special situation for debutants and returners from inactivity.

- The debutants' pre-bout rating is set to the pre-bout rating of the loser, if they win.
- The returners' pre-bout rating is set to the pre-bout rating of the loser for very long inactivity and to a value in between their own current rating and loser's pre-bout rating for shorter inactivity, if they win.

This is to allow for a most likely start and return rating.

Por Nobnom was a big name in Thai boxing - there his name was Daoden Singklongsi - see 118 lb rating I found:

Champion: Khaiyasit Chuwatthana

1. Daoden Singklongsi
2. Nilmongkhol Sor Khamsing
3. Khanchai Chor Sangpraphai
4. Thongchai Tor Silachai
5. Payasua Gardenseaview
6. Ritthijak Kaewsamrit
7. Samrandatch Sor Danchai
8. Yodbuwngam Lukbanyai
9. Yodsanchai Sitmonchai
10. Ma'fai Wor Butwilai

http://muaymag.com/paipharob-beats-megr ... title.html

[jujigatame]

You have to admit something seems a little out of wack about this sequence. Vorapin started with enough points to put him on the outskirts of the top 20, then he's beat by a journeyman who takes his place, maybe somewhere around #15. Then he's beaten by a debutante who gains enough points to go all the way to #5? Maybe you should look at reducing the debutante bonus? What sort of effects would that have?

[computerrank]

You have to admit something seems a little out of wack about this sequence. Vorapin started with enough points to put him on the outskirts of the top 20, then he's beat by a journeyman who takes his place, maybe somewhere around #15. Then he's beaten by a debutante who gains enough points to go all the way to #5? Maybe you should look at reducing the debutante bonus? What sort of effects would that have?

Winning debutants' pre-bout ratings where set to 50% of the losers' pre-bout rating in May 2007 and to 100% somewhat later, caused by complaints for boxers seen set back in spite of excellent starts against highly rated opponents - some Cuban boxers such as Gamboa, Solis, etc , if I remember correctly ...

So what ... split opinions, caused by specific current perspectives at a time?

From 50% of loser's pre-bout rating Por Nobnom would be at around #10 with some 450 points.

From 0 Por Nobnom would be around #30 with some 230 points.

[jujigatame]

I'm not sure what other people think, but I'd say the 50% or even the 0% number looks better. Nobnom at #30 is not unreasonable, and I do remember Gamboa shooting up the rankings a bit quickly as well. He was in the top 10 before he ever beat anyone with a pulse. Hell, he's #4 now and he still hasn't beaten any particularly good opponents.

I'd go with 50% or maybe even 25%.