Percentages

[whicker]

A relevant question, as I'm writing a piece about this:

If a boxer was quoted at 3/1 to win a fight, what (hypothetical) percentage chance would you say that gives him?

Same question, what if a boxer was quoted 1/5?

Its like with roulette, you are give odds of 35/1 on a single number, which is hypothetical a chance of 2.78%.


I mean- DON'T work it out- if a fighter is 3/1 , how likely does it sound (as a percentage) that he is likley to win the fight?

[Hagler2002]

25%

[gb]

1/5 would be an 83% chance; the 1/5 means that he loses once for every 5 times that he wins, so he wins 5 times out of 6, which is 83%

3/1 means that he loses 3 times for every time that he wins, which means that he wins 1 time out of every 4, which is 25%

[Adamj1987]

1/5 would be an 83% chance; the 1/5 means that he loses once for every 5 times that he wins, so he wins 5 times out of 6, which is 83%

3/1 means that he loses 3 times for every time that he wins, which means that he wins 1 time out of every 4, which is 25%

indeed

[whicker]

1/5 would be an 83% chance; the 1/5 means that he loses once for every 5 times that he wins, so he wins 5 times out of 6, which is 83%

Yep-

So that would mean that, like with a dice, the odds represent a hypothetical change of him losing "1 in 6 times."

But if a (non-informed) punter saw 1/5, would they interpret it as such?

Most people see 1/5, in my experience, and say "Well, that means he is so definatly going to win, almost without question. May as well say he's won now, no market etc etc."

Thats the problem- people will see "1/4" and go , well, he's gonna win, so I'm not betting on the other fella, but I'm not betting on the favourite-why bet £5 to win not much more than a Quid etc.


I'm trying to think of a way of making betting on a boxing favourite appear more attractive to the man in the street. Combo betting would be good, but to do that, you need at least one good undercard bet to back it up.

Like on Friday- Jamie Moore to win 1/3 , Napa to win 4/5 .

Doesn't sound attractive, does it?

However as a double, thats 7/5.

For sure, experienced gamblers will know this, but to the "man is the street" I'd say that sounds like a good bet--- ie odds offered like that are a better way of getting the punters to place a bet.

[gb]

I know what you mean about perception; 1/4 an 1/10 are both perceived as dead certs by most people. Good luck in explaining why two odds - on chances become an odds - against chance!

[m1kee50]

I always try to group a couple of bets up when betting boxing, because the odds are usually short, and upsets rare.

[whicker]

I always try to group a couple of bets up when betting boxing, because the odds are usually short, and upsets rare.

That what I think, too. Take boxers who start the bout at 1/4 . Hypothetically, 1 in every 5 fights a boxer who starts fights at those odds should, again hypothetically, lose.

How often does it happen, though?

[Asterix]

When I was betting I set up a spreadsheet to calculate everything for me.

The image below is just a quick way to convert from one odds system to another:


The image below tells you how much to bet based on your 'bank', the chance you think it has of happening, and the odds given by the bookies. The 'Custom amount' is if you don't want to bet according to your bank.