I hope you agree that these all bring something to the table that the ten-a-penny predictions don't.
http://www.ringtv.com/blog/1308/ten_tra ... _showdown/
http://www.compuboxonline.com/analysis/ ... cquiao.phpKen Adams
I like Pacquiao by knockout.
The fight comes down to wear and tear for me. I believe Pacquiao is the fresher of the two fighters. He hasn’t been in any major wars recently. He hasn’t had tough fights like Cotto has in recent years.
Those hard fights with (Zab) Judah, (Shane) Mosley, and (Antonio) Margarito have taken their toll, especially on his skin because it seems like Cotto gets cut in every fight these days. I also question if he’s recovered from the Margarito beating. I’m not so sure that he has. He didn’t look that good against (Joshua) Clottey. He was very lucky to win that one. I have to ask how much has the punishment he’s taken will effect him when he fights Pacquiao. I have to wonder if he will he have flashbacks to the Margarito fight when Pacquiao cracks him with a good punch.
I think Cotto will get stopped on cuts by the middle or late rounds. Pacquiao won’t get him out of there early because Cotto has learned some lessons in those hard fights. I know he’ll survive and make some adjustments when he gets hurt, he‘ll and move a little if he has to, but Pacquiao will keep catching him and busting him up. (Pacquiao is) quicker and more explosive and that will be the difference.
Adams trains junior lightweight contender Jorge Linares and middleweight prospect Matt Korobov, who fights on the Pacquiao-Cotto undercard.
Roberto Garcia
I’m picking Pacquiao by knockout.
It’s a really close fight on paper, but I think Pacquiao is too fast and too strong right now. I know that Cotto is a real welterweight, and Pacquiao isn’t, but I still think Pacquiao is the stronger fighter.
I also have faith in Freddie Roach. He is an expert at having his fighters prepared for these kinds of fights and I believe what he says about Pacquiao. He’s right 99 percent of the time when it comes to Pacquiao.
I think Pacquaio will get a late-rounds stoppage after beating up and cutting up Cotto. I don’t think it will be a cold knockout like we saw with Ricky Hatton. Cotto will come strong and he’ll have his plan, but Pacquiao will cut him up, bruise him up, and basically put a spanking on him.
Garcia trains titleholders Brian Viloria and Steven Luevano, who defends his featherweight belt against Juan Manuel Lopez on Jan. 23, and prospects Brandon Rios and Miguel Garcia. The former 130-pound titleholder will also work the corner of Alfonzo Gomez on Saturday, when The Contender alum fights Jesus Soto-Karass on the televised undercard of Pacquiao-Cotto.
Joe Goossen
I’m picking Cotto to be the spoiler in this fight.
Provided that he’s had a good camp, better than the camp he had for Clottey, I think he’s got the tools to outbox Pacquiao.
The camps are a big factor in how this matchup plays. I know Cotto started camp early to make sure he made 145 pounds, but he still needs to have had one of his best ever to beat Manny. Pacquiao, on the other hand, was dealing with typhoons in the Philippines, jumping from one place to the other and finally winding up back in Hollywood. There’s a lot to be said about having a nice, settled, comfortable camp, and having a good rhythm going into a fight. I don’t know if Pacquiao has had that, but some guys eat that crazy stuff up. Pacquiao is one of them. But when you face a very good counter-puncher like Cotto, and someone who knows how to fight southpaws, like Cotto does, maybe you need to have had a great camp to succeed.
Pacquiao has faced better boxers and counter punchers, such as (Marco Antonio) Barrera and (Juan Manuel) Marquez, but they weren’t as big as Cotto. At this weight, this is the best all-around boxer-counter puncher that Pacquiao has faced.
This is going to be a real test for Pacquiao. I want to jump on the Pacquiao bandwagon because he’s a juggernaut right now, almost impossible to stop. What stops a guy like that that? It has to be someone stronger than he is, somebody with a nice punch, but also with some slickness and craftiness. And it has to be someone who can defend from the southpaw stance. I think Miguel Cotto fits the bill. Cotto can stop the juggernaut because he’s so skillful. If he’s had a better camp than he did for Clottey, I think the answer is yes, he can fulfill the role of the spoiler because of his skill and his ability to fight southpaws.
I have this curious feeling that Cotto can do better against this particular southpaw than people think he will. I remember watching Cotto beat Ricardo Williams Jr. in the amateurs. (Editor’s note: Cotto won a 28-22 decision against Williams at a USA-Puerto Rico dual meet in Tacoma, Wash., in 2000.)
I’ve never seen anyone dismantle such an unpredictable, athletic southpaw as Ricardo Williams the way Cotto did that day. Williams was an incredible amateur boxer, one of the best in the world at the time, and Cotto handled him. He’s been on my radar ever since.
The only thing that worries me is Cotto’s propensity to cut in recent years, because Pacquiao is such a sharp puncher. But if he’s had a great camp and he can avoid getting cut, he can really box something special Saturday night because he’s such a smart and calculating guy.
I think he can do damage while he out-boxes Pacquiao. If he’s able to get into a groove I think he can do more than just win a decision, I think he can stop Pacquiao late.
Goossen trains heavyweight hopefuls Malik Scott and Manuel Quezada, Italian welterweight standout Daniele Petrucci, and undefeated lightweight prospect John Molina, who fights 130-pound contender Martin Honorio on Nov. 28.
Rudy Hernandez
I like Cotto by late stoppage.
I think Cotto is pound for pound the best fighter at the moment. He can fight on the inside, outside, against the ropes, southpaw, and he handles himself like a true veteran when hurt.
Manny has looked great against (David) Diaz, (Oscar) De La Hoya, and Hatton, but come on, his last competitive fight was against Marquez. None of Pacquiao’s last three opponents can compare to Cotto. Of course, he looked fast and strong in those fights, but who was he fighting? De La Hoya had been off too long and Father Time caught up with him. Think about this, “Pacman” hit Oscar with everything but can you tell me if at anytime, De La Hoya was on shaky legs? Sure he was puffed up, but remember, fighters in their thirties start to show the effects of punches, just ask Julio Cesar Chavez. As for the Hatton fight, well if (Floyd) Mayweather could knock him out it was a given that Pacquiao, being more aggressive, would stop him earlier. And Diaz? Well, he was just out of his league.
I thought Pacquiao would win those three fights, but this time, I have to go with Cotto. Manny is far from being as strong or as heavy handed as Margarito. If Marquez can hurt (Pacquiao) at 130 pounds, and make it such a close fight, and if Oscar Larios could buzz him, I see him getting stopped Saturday night.
I expect to see a great fight, regardless of who wins, but I think Cotto's strength and ring savvy will be the difference.
Hernandez trained Jose Armando Santa Cruz and Urbano Antillon to lightweight contender status and currently works with former bantamweight title challenger Nestor Rocha.
Eddie Mustafa Muhammad
I see Cotto winning by knockout.
Everything was set up to favor Pacquiao in this fight, including the weight, but I think that catchweight of 145 pounds will bite Pacquiao in the ass. Having Cotto come in a pound or two lighter than usual will only make him faster.
Cotto is going to go to the body, he has to do that to slow him down. Simple jabs -- doubling and tripling them up -- will get him inside as he applies pressure. He’s going to keep Pacquiao backing up and when Pacquiao counters, he will counter the counters. Pacquiao still comes in with his chin held high. I think Cotto can catch him.
If Cotto does what he should do, apply pressure and a good jab and works the body, I see him winning by late stoppage.
Muhammad trains THE RING’s No.1-rated light heavyweight Chad Dawson, former heavyweight title challenger Michael Grant, and heavyweight prospect Bowie Tupou.
Henry Ramirez
I like Pacquiao by knockout.
I expect a great fight, a hell of fight, a real dog fight. The only thing that would surprise me is an early round knockout.
But based on his string of wins and everything else he’s got going for him -- the incredible hand speed, great footwork, and what I’m sure will be a solid game plan from Freddie Roach -- I have to favor Pacquiao.
I can see him boxing Cotto and then landing something big that tilts the fight in his favor, but I also see Cotto doing some damage downstairs. At the end of the night, I think the quicker hands and feet will win out.
Ramirez trains heavyweight contender Chris Arreola, who fights Brian Minto on Dec. 5, lightweight fringe contender Josesito Lopez, and junior featherweight prospect Johnatan Arrellano.
Naazim Richardson
I favor Pacquiao.
Everyone at (Cotto and Pacquiao’s) level can fight. Everyone up there is special. It comes down to who has the better strategy and who can follow that strategy.
In this situation, I believe Pacquiao is faster. And I don’t buy into Cotto being bigger. Everyone has been bigger than Pacquiao and he keeps beating everyone’s ass. He’s big enough to fight you. Pacquiao matches up with Cotto better than David Haye matched up with the giant [Nikolai Valuev] and we saw what happened there.
Pacquiao is strong and has that hand speed. He could cut Cotto open, which would be a problem. All things being equal, Cotto is capable of beating Pacquiao. Him having a new trainer, though, I’m not so sure. Cotto didn’t seem to have a set strategy when he fought Joshua Clottey. No one looks too good against Clottey but he didn’t seem to have a set strategy. He needs that to deal with Pacquiao. So I lean toward Pacquiao in this fight. I think that his connection to his corner is a little stronger. It’s an excellent fight, though.
Richardson trains future hall of famers Bernard Hopkins, who fights Enrique Ornelas on Dec. 2, and Shane Mosley, who takes on fellow 147-pound beltholder Andre Berto on Jan. 30.
John Scully
I like Pacquiao by decision.
I think Freddy Roach is an exceptional strategist and will have a great plan in place for Manny to follow. I believe the plan will be to stay off the ring ropes, keep Miguel turning in circles and to use very fast, sudden strikes. I think Manny will follow the plan, pick his shots and surprise Miguel with his hand speed and power and win a decision over 12 rounds.
Scully trains cruiserweight contender Matt Godfrey and junior featherweight fringe contender Mike Oliver. The former light heavyweight title challenger also co-trains featherweight prospect Matt Remillard.
Ronnie Shields
I’m picking Cotto by decision.
I don’t think Pacquiao is strong enough to wear him down like Margarito did. The only way to beat Cotto is to wear him down early and there’s no way Pacquiao can do that.
I think Pacquiao is going to move around a lot and rely on his speed and that’s not going to keep Cotto from doing his thing and taking advantage of Pacquiao’s mistakes.
Cotto has the ability to put a lot of pressure on Pacquiao and make him fight the kind of tough fight that he hasn’t fought in a long time.
He can’t go toe to toe with Cotto. He may try in the later rounds, but early on he won’t do that because Cotto will be at his strongest early on in the bout.
People underestimate the jab of Miguel Cotto and his boxing skills. He’s a better boxer than he is a power puncher, and I think he’s going to have to use that underrated skill against Pacquiao because (Pacquiao has) got so much speed and he’s such a smart fighter. Pacquiao will out-speed (Cotto) in the early rounds but Cotto will catch up to him and once he does that, and Pacquiao feels the power, I think Cotto’s size advantage will take over.
I think we’re going to see Cotto win a decision. I don’t think he’ll knock Manny out. If the fight is stopped it will be stopped in the corner.
Shields trains former unified lightweight titlist Juan Diaz, who rematches with Paul Malignaggi on Dec. 12, contenders Rocky Juarez and Kermit Cintron, and prospects Omar Henry and Jermell and Jermall Charlos.
Shadeed Suluki
I think Cotto will win a decision.
I can see him fighting Pacquiao like Marquez fought him, laying back, drawing him in and aggressively counter punching him. I can see Cotto frustrating Pacquiao and Pacquiao’s the type of fighter who will get antsy and start jumping in without thinking. Eventually Pacquiao will take chances and make mistakes. Freddie Roach is a good strategist and Pacquiao is good at following orders but he’s only as good as when he listens to Freddie. When he gets hurt or in trouble, I think he stops listening and switches to his instincts.
Everyone’s looking at the fight he had with Margarito, and it could be a factor in Saturday’s fight, but what people tend to forget is that Cotto he was winning that fight up to a point. It’s not like he got totally blown out. I thought he was looking very good for many rounds.
I still think Cotto is a dangerous fighter, more than what people think. I think he can handle the southpaw stance, and when he beat Shane Mosley, he proved that he can fight and box a stronger and faster opponent and make adjustments. Pacquiao is talented but he’s not the smartest fighter in the world. It’s just that he’s so fast and explosive and can throw so many punches that makes him dangerous.
I didn’t think he could to Ricky Hatton what he did. But Hatton didn’t make adjustments after that awful first round. Cotto is a lot better than Hatton. He can make adjustments, and he seems to be more focused now than he was for his last two fights. I think he’s going to surprise a lot of people by outboxing Pacquiao.
Suluki trains heavyweight fringe contenders Lamon Brewster and Audley Harrison, cruiserweight fringe contender Rico Hoye, and undefeated light heavyweight prospect Ismayl Sillakh
http://www.fightwriter.com/?q=node/2457If Mayweather-Marquez was the pay-per-view appetizer, Miguel Cotto vs. Manny Pacquiao may be the main course because unlike the former one can’t easily predict the result of the latter. Pacquiao’s attempting to become just the fifth fighter in history to win five titles in five different weight classes. Oscar delaHoya (six titles in six different weight classes), Thomas Hearns, Ray Leonard and Floyd Mayweather are the Fantastic Four. Pac’s a 2 ½-to-1 favorite to win Cotto’s WBO welterweight title, but do the CompuBox numbers support that contention? Let’s find out.
Cotto vs. Speed: The last two times Cotto encountered world-class speed was against Shane Mosley and Zab Judah. Against Mosley’s “power boxing,” Cotto’s attack was fairly balanced as he landed 34 percent of his jabs (98 of 288) and 39 percent of his power shots (150 of 387). Against Judah, a solid hitting southpaw who stresses speed like Pacquiao, Cotto’s percentages were similar (38 percent jabs, 45 percent power) but the distribution tilted heavily toward power shots as he went 78 of 202 in jabs and 214 of 481 in power punches. Therefore, look for Cotto to impose his superior size and strength on offense.
That approach carries considerable risk. While Cotto defended well against the jabs of Mosley and Judah (16 percent connects for Mosley, 14 percent for Judah), both landed a high percentage of power shots (53 percent Mosley, 57 percent Judah). Thus, Pacquiao – never a strong jabber – should use his speed to establish a pattern: Dart in, fire flurries, dash out, reset and repeat.
One crucial piece of information could alter Pacquiao’s approach. Mosley had the solid welterweight frame to maintain a high work rate in terms of power shots while Judah, a longtime 140-pounder, couldn’t. Mosley threw 52 less power shots (335 to 387) but managed to land 27 more (177-150) to throw the final result into dispute. Judah, however, attempted just 159 power shots – a paltry 13.25 per round. For Pacquiao, power volume is an absolute must and he must be willing to risk everything to keep up the beat.
The good news for Pacquiao is that Mosley was the first to neutralize Cotto’s vaunted late-round surge. In the final three rounds Mosley was 62 of 201 to Cotto's 52 of 156 overall while out-landing him 49-34 in power shots. Cotto also appeared to be the more weary and disorganized fighter but he navigated through this crisis with the jab, out-landing Mosley 26-15 despite throwing 52 fewer (134-82) in the last three rounds.
In fact, Cotto's jab had been effective throughout the bout as he out-did “Sugar Shane” in eight rounds to Mosley's two and two even while also registering double-digit connects four times, all in the first six rounds. Cotto was similarly dominant with the jab against Judah as he amassed an 8-1-1 round-by-round lead. Therefore, Cotto can’t afford to ignore his jab in his desire to dish out punishment.
Pacquiao vs. Size: Pacquiao has been spectacular in the three fights since moving up from 130. Critics say that lightweight David Diaz was too plodding, welterweight Oscar De La Hoya was an aged shell and junior welterweight Ricky Hatton was overrated. In hindsight, that may have been true but coming in each man presented considerable risks. The numbers Pacquiao produced in each fight was off the charts.
Pacquiao out-landed Diaz 230-90 overall and 180-59 in power shots before producing an emphatic one-punch finish. He was golden against the “Golden Boy” as he piled up a 224-83 overall connect advantage, landed 59 percent of his power shots and out-did him 195-51 in that category before forcing De La Hoya to resign. Finally, Pacquiao out-landed Hatton 73-18 overall and 65-16 in power shots in just 5:59 of action and the fight ended with a crunching left that knocked the “Hit Man” unconscious. In short, Pacquiao did what pound-for-pound kings are supposed to do – dominate and excite.
One Cotto weapon that could trouble Pacquiao is the jab. Erik Morales used it in their 2005 fight to control distance and set up the rest of his offense. “El Terrible’s” 96-34 gap in landed jabs set up his overall 265-217 advantage and helped him inflict Pacquiao’s last defeat. Cotto used the jab well in the Margarito, Mosley and Judah bouts, topping the 30 percent threshold each time.
Recent Form: As stated earlier Pacquiao is running on all cylinders offensively but the same can be said concerning his defense. His plus-minus ratio (the percentage difference between hitting and getting hit) in the last three fights was plus-10 against Diaz, plus-17 for De La Hoya and plus-24 for Hatton in terms of overall numbers. When all three fights are averaged the rating is a plus-15 in overall punches and a plus-24 in power shots.
As for Cotto, he earned a somewhat surprising plus-16 in the Margarito fight (43 percent to 27), a plus-35 against Michael Jennings (50-15) but a minus-11 against Clottey (25-36). The Ghanaian appeared to have matters in hand after 10 rounds because Clottey out-landed Cotto 78-45 overall and 66-30 in power shots in rounds seven through 10. But in 11 and 12 Clottey failed to crush Cotto’s windpipe and allowed him back into the fight. Cotto cut his deficit in total connects to 38-36 and out-jabbed Clottey 14-3 to mitigate his shortfall in total power connects to seal a disputed split decision.
The Clottey fight furthered suspicions that Cotto may be in decline and the second half of the Margarito fight certainly didn’t help. In the final five rounds Margarito out-landed Cotto 146-106 overall and 134-70 in power shots. Cotto was beaten, bloodied, battered and broken and few fighters can completely rebound from that sort of trauma.
Prediction: Though the bout will be staged at 145, Cotto will still be the biggest and strongest fighter Pacquiao has faced. But will we see Cotto at his best? One has to wonder since he came so close to losing to Clottey. It is ironic that while Pacquiao is two years older and has had 19 more fights over five more years, he is viewed as the fresher fighter. As long as Pacquiao respects Cotto’s hook, he has the skill set to prevail by unanimous decision.
Every once in a while there comes a fight that has fans counting the days till it happens. Manny Pacquiao against Miguel Cotto is such a fight. The Firepower PPV title fight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas has all the ingredients to make it the year’s most compelling contest.
Pacquiao is the favourite and the odds have been climbing in the last few days as money pours in on the Filipino phenomenon. Yet Cotto has his backers in the fight fraternity. This is not going to be a Pacquiao blowout on the lines of his two-round demolition of Ricky Hatton in this ring last May. Cotto is a poised and purposeful practitioner who comes into the fight as the defending WBO welter champion (although the match is made at a catchweight of 145 pounds) and a winner’s mentality.
I was able to catch a few words over the phone with both fighters in the last week. Neither disparages the other — which I like — but I sense real confidence on both sides.
“Whatever Pacquiao brings, whatever he does, I will be ready for it,” Cotto said. “I am very sure I will win.”
Pacquiao said he feels even better physically that he did before the big fights with Oscar De La Hoya and Hatton. “I feel stronger, and just as fast,” Pacquiao said.
Concerns have been voiced that the brutal, 11th-round defeat against Antonio Margarito 16 months ago left Cotto depleted as a fighter. “If I was not fully recovered I would not be here, in this fight,” Cotto said in his usual serious way.
Did he feel that Margarito fought with illegal substances in his hand wraps that night? “You know, I didn’t feel anything weird,” he said, “but people saw how my face looked after the fight and I will let boxing followers around the world be the judge.”
Cotto didn’t seem quite his usual self in his last fight, against Joshua Clottey, but he still got the win, and he was boxing the last nine rounds under the handicap of a bad cut over the left eye against a big, strong, durable fighter who, with his stonewall defence, is extremely hard to hurt.
I had the sense that Clottey had Cotto on the brink of defeat, but he didn’t press his attack with sufficient vigour to push him over the edge. It was Cotto who was the busier fighter in the last few rounds to take a split but deserved decision. Still, even allowing for the cut eye, and the difficulties that Clottey presented, it did appear to me that there was something missing in Cotto that night.
Pacquiao, in contrast, has been looking sensational as he has moved up in weight. First he destroyed De La Hoya in eight one-sided rounds, then he left Hatton stretched out on the canvas in one of the most alarming knockouts in recent years.
Cotto, though, isn’t a weight-drained De La Hoya or a wide-open Hatton. The Puerto Rican boxer is smart, skilled and extremely dangerous with his cannonball left hooks. If he catches Pacquiao, he will hurt him, and if he can hurt him often enough, he will win. I make Cotto the puncher in the fight, if you’re talking about one-hit power. Pacquiao, though, has the lightning-bolt type of punches that can bring dramatic results because the other man just doesn’t see the shots. He has become a two-handed fighter, too. Once he would rely on big left hands from his southpaw stance. Now he jabs and hooks with real authority with his right. “My right hand is now as good as my left,” Pacquaio told me.
Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach, naturally enough predicts an emphatic win for his man — and he’s been getting it right lately. There has been speculation that Pacquiao’s preparation might have been disrupted by stormy weather in the Philippines, but Roach said: “The typhoons did a lot of damage around us but we never missed one day of training. We ran every day, we didn’t melt in the rain — we didn’t miss a step. One thing about Manny, when he gets in the gym he separates everything else and the gym is where his mind’s at. He’s been looking really sharp and he’s 100% ready.
“Cotto has a really good left hook, he’s left handed and leads with his power hand, and he’s most effective when he gets you on the ropes — our job is to stay away from the left hook and not get caught on the ropes. We can do that just like we did with Oscar, it’s very similar to Oscar’s style because they both lead with their power hands.”
Roach feels that on Saturday the world will see the best Pacquiao yet. “He’s punching harder with both hands than I’ve ever seen him,” Roach said. “He’s filling out, his upper body’s a little bigger — he’s on fire. I’ve studied Cotto’s tapes, he’s a very good fighter, but the Margarito fight definitely took something out of him. He took a beating in that fight. I definitely feel we’ll stop him somewhere along the way.”
Many will agree with Roach’s assessment, but there is always the risk that observers can get carried away when a fighter has scored successive wins of a spectacular nature. It was only 20 months ago, after all, that Pacquiao had a desperate struggle with Juan Manuel Marquez that he may have been lucky to win. Yet it is almost as if we are looking at a different fighter now. Pacquiao looks rock-solid in the mid-140-pound weight range and, as he says, his speed is undiminished.
I think that Pacquiao’s speed and vitality are going to be the key factors in Saturday’s eagerly anticipated fight. Cotto, to me, is like a machine in the ring, and a superb one at that, but Pacquiao is the sort of fighter who can throw a machine out of sync.
Of course, Cotto has the power to swing the fight his way if he can get Pacquiao in his sights and pull the trigger on the left hook. Cotto’s jab could be a key weapon — Juan Manuel Marquez had considerable success with stiff jabbing in his two fights with Pacquiao.
There is a risk that many are overrating Pacquiao and underrating Cotto based on the evidence of recent form.
Still, I like Pacquiao’s chances on Saturday.
Although Cotto is the naturally bigger man, his strength and power will not help him if he cannot corner Pacquiao and cut off his escape routes. I can see Pacquiao darting in and out, hitting and getting away in sweeping motions, and I think that his rapid-fire punching can gradually take effect.
I’m picking Pacquiao, and I think he can stop Cotto somewhere around the 10th or 11th round.
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