Burns to beat Katsidis tonight

[fizzjambo]

I've given this a fair bit of thought and I feel that this is Burn's fight to loose. Although I'm a Scot I don't rate Burns especially highly in terms of world class but I think the move up to lightweight has been due for the last 12 -18 months and although I'd be surprised to see him hit harder I think he will be well able to fight a hard paced 12 rounds.

To me Katsidis just has to many hard fights under his belt. His best wins are his three in a row against Chazev, Escobedo and Mitchell but Chavez was an old blown up Super Feather who hadn't had a dcent win in four years and Mitchell seems to have been on a bit of a distructive path prior to their bout. However his last three fights are a concern. He put up a fantastic effort vs Marquez but it was the kind of fight and ending that can take a lot out of a fighter. Guerrero was a real concern though. Stepping up in weight (again) I really felt it was a big risk for Guerrero but he made Katsidis look daft at times. He outlanded him 400 punches to 100 and had a connection rate of around 50%. The way Katsidis screamed at Guerrero as they touched gloves looked like a desperate man trying to gain any possible edge.

Almost as concerning was the choice of his last opponent and step up in weight for the fight. Mentions of Earl and eventually settling on the now happy loser Lozada were not the choices of the rough and tumble ring warrior of 2005-2008.

Burns is just so fresh right now and although Katsidis has fought better men than Burns he hasn't beaten them. As daft as it may seem I can almost envisage an upright Katsidis being rescued in the 10th/11th round, eyes swollen almost shut as Burns boxes from raange while throwing uppercuts as Katsidis steams in. I've got a Froch/Abraham ffeeling about this

[crusader]

His best wins are his three in a row against Chazev, Escobedo and Mitchell but Chavez was an old blown up Super Feather who hadn't had a dcent win in four years and Mitchell seems to have been on a bit of a distructive path prior to their bout.

And yet in the aggregate Katsidis' best wins are superior to Burns' best wins. What do you think about Ricky's last three opponents?

He put up a fantastic effort vs Marquez but it was the kind of fight and ending that can take a lot out of a fighter

.

True.

Guerrero was a real concern though.Stepping up in weight (again) I really felt it was a big risk for Guerrero but he made Katsidis look daft at times. He outlanded him 400 punches to 100 and had a connection rate of around 50%. The way Katsidis screamed at Guerrero as they touched gloves looked like a desperate man trying to gain any possible edge.

Guerrero did win in convincing fashion, but he is a level or two above Burns, and despite moving up in weight Guerrero looked noticably bigger than Katsidis. With respect to the second sentence, you're reading way too much into Katsidis`pre-fight antics; sure, maybe he was trying to gain an edge, but why is that indicative of a 'desperate man?'

Almost as concerning was the choice of his last opponent and step up in weight for the fight. Mentions of Earl and eventually settling on the now happy loser Lozada were not the choices of the rough and tumble ring warrior of 2005-2008.

What`s the problem with taking one easy bout after tough losses against elite fighters like JMM and Guerrero? I wouldn’t be shocked if Lozada beat Joseph Laryea or the crippled version of Nicky Cook who fought Burns.

I would, however, be shocked if the bout turns out as you envisioned, although a competitive points win for Burns wouldn't have the same effect.

[fizzjambo]

I'm not saying I expect Burn's to win by stoppage, I don't, but I do think it is a realistic possibility. I'd agree that Katsidis' best wins are better than Burns' (although I'd argue that Martinez was at least of the level of Kat's best wins) and that Gurrero is a level above Burns, but Katsidis got his ass handed to him that night. He never even really pressured Gurrero, just plodded after him in straight lines, he was hardly even throwing shots in the last third of the fight, it was a hammering, if Gurrero could punch at 135 he'd have stopped him mid-fight, and Katsidis used up alot of miles that night

[Hagler2002]

A well constructed post but if Burns beats Katsidis I'll chop my man bag off with a rusty hacksaw.

[Fatsam]

If i remember it correctly i thought katsidis was coming back into the fight about the mid stage against guerero with some good body work and the ref was on his case constantly about low blows that didn't look illegal and the ghost was looking a bit uncomfortable. I can see burns winning the first few rounds but im not expecting to see him survive past round 6 in my humble opinion.

[leforge]

A well constructed post but if Burns beats Katsidis I'll chop my man bag off with a rusty hacksaw.

ThInk your money safe!

[Datsue]

A well constructed post but if Burns beats Katsidis I'll chop my man bag off with a rusty hacksaw.

ThInk your money safe!

But what about his man-bag?

[tonyevs]

Katsidis has only ever been a gate keeper at lightweight world level.
They are gambling on him finally being shop worn enough to cute their way passed.

Whilst I think Burns has a better chance than Mitchel - i still don't see him having enough to get passed.

As Mitchel found out. World class can be a bigger step up than expected.

Katsidis on points ... Maybe even SD.

[ScottDetonator]

It's going to be a tough nights work for the likeable Ricky but one I just can't see him winning. A SD loss wouldn't be a disaster but a KO loss would certainly put Ricky back a step. If Burns can take the power of Katsidis, that's a big if, then a 12 round SD is nailed on.

If Ricky does pull off a decision, then it'll set up some cracking contests next year. The question here is, how far can Ricky go at this weight? A lot of big fights out there potentially. If Burn's loses, will he step back down? Looking forward to tonights contest, should be fireworks!*pun intended*

[MightyWarrior]

Going to be an interesting evening, both these guys are never say die - while Burns is some way behind Kat in most areas, he definitely matches him in the heart department.
The way he turned his career around to get the Martinez win, ranks him alongside that other Cinderella man, Steve Robinson. Love to see him do it, maybe he can, but Kat will have needed to drop a level or two for him to have a decent chance - cuts could play a massive roll, if Ricky can hang in there ( and he usually does ).

But FW has done him few favours, by giving him the 3 poorest "world" title challengers any champion has faced back-to-back in boxing history: Evensen, Laryea and then Cook, who should have come to the ring on a stretcher. That's like warming up for Man United with a few games against your local pub 5 aside.

[Tomasino]

A well constructed post but if Burns beats Katsidis I'll chop my man bag off with a rusty hacksaw.

But without your beanbag how will you recoup your losses from the fight?

[CiganoBoxer]

Katsidis is gonna brutalize burns

[Andypittcov]

Can't wait for this one. I'm really split on the outcome, katsidis to steamroller him inside 6 or burns to win on points.

[whiskey]

I remember seeing threads like this before Audley vs Haye.

Can't help but think that when Katsidis was having wars with Casamayor and Diaz in Vegas..

That Burns was fighting in a Chinese restaurant in Glasgow on a Wednesday night against a bum.

This is e biggest fight of Ricky's career, but I doubt it ranks inside the top 6 of Katsidis.

[greenyox3]

Katsidis is strong as an ox, brings relentless pressure and is generally hard as fvck. Yes Guerrero made him look ordinary, but Guerrero is a level above both of these men and stylistically Katsidis was perfect for him.

Burns will have to top his performance vs Martinez if he is to have any chance. Just can't see it I'm afraid. Katsidis by mid-to-late stoppage methinks.

[-KOKid-]

Guerrero outboxed Katsidis without too much trouble.
Burns is a level below Guerrero, but I still think he can pull it off - especially if he gets through the first 3-4 rounds without taking too much punishment.

[MightyWarrior]

Guerrero really looked exceptional against Kat I thought, Burns can't get near that level.

His best chance is Kat has slowed down, and marks up too easily there days.

[NazNaci1]

I don't fancy Burns, in this one.

Katsides all the way.

[fizzjambo]

As the Hives once said............

Burn's was excellent tonight, Katsidis wasn't as faded as I thought he might be, but fighters like Juan Diaz, Katsidis, Hatton, etc are past their best by 30.

The point that Katsidis is over rated in the UK is anexcellent one. In the US he is seen as an exciting brawler who makes good fights but is just short of top level.

Burn's deserves all the praise in the world though. Excellent jab, crisp looping hooks to the body and possibly the best uppercut in British boxing at the moment. I had it 117-112 with Katsidis winning the 4th, 8th and 10th with the 12th even. The 5th and 7th were close but at my most kind I could make it 114-114 and Burns swept 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 11 for me. He won't knock many guys out but he hit's crisply and Billy Nelson deserves great praise for the confidence he has instilled in him and getting him to sit down on his punches.

Urbano Antillion or David Diaz would be excellent opponents but I'd bet a few quid on Mitchell v Burns in the O2 in March.

Finally lets start giving our guys a bit of credit. If that had been Adrian Broner in against Katsidis I'd be wetting myself with praise! Gurrero is not levels above Burns (that doesn't means I'd pick Burns in the fight, just that it would be a damn good fight)

[Final round]

A well constructed post but if Burns beats Katsidis I'll chop my man bag off with a rusty hacksaw.

Ouch! I bet that hurt

[Hagler2002]

A well constructed post but if Burns beats Katsidis I'll chop my man bag off with a rusty hacksaw.

Ouch! I bet that hurt

I've bottled it! my man bag is stopping intact

[Final round]

A well constructed post but if Burns beats Katsidis I'll chop my man bag off with a rusty hacksaw.

Ouch! I bet that hurt

I've bottled it! my man bag is stopping intact

That was a wager too far for anyone ;;-)

[Quixall]

As the Hives once said............

Burn's was excellent tonight, Katsidis wasn't as faded as I thought he might be, but fighters like Juan Diaz, Katsidis, Hatton, etc are past their best by 30.

The point that Katsidis is over rated in the UK is anexcellent one. In the US he is seen as an exciting brawler who makes good fights but is just short of top level.

Burn's deserves all the praise in the world though. Excellent jab, crisp looping hooks to the body and possibly the best uppercut in British boxing at the moment. I had it 117-112 with Katsidis winning the 4th, 8th and 10th with the 12th even. The 5th and 7th were close but at my most kind I could make it 114-114 and Burns swept 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 11 for me. He won't knock many guys out but he hit's crisply and Billy Nelson deserves great praise for the confidence he has instilled in him and getting him to sit down on his punches.

Urbano Antillion or David Diaz would be excellent opponents but I'd bet a few quid on Mitchell v Burns in the O2 in March.

Finally lets start giving our guys a bit of credit. If that had been Adrian Broner in against Katsidis I'd be wetting myself with praise! Gurrero is not levels above Burns (that doesn't means I'd pick Burns in the fight, just that it would be a damn good fight)

Very good win for Burns tonight, but i think we could all see that Katsidis has seen better days. What was interesting is how one dimensional Katsidis is and never once changed his approach. A younger version of Katsidis would have given Burns nightmares with his relentless approach, but after the 6th round there was practically nothing left in his punches in terms of power. A fight with Mitchel would be a far bigger challenge for Burns than tonight though.

[fizzjambo]

Mitchell / Burns would be superb. I'm a Scot, think Burns is excellent for boxing up here, but the Mitchell vs Murray is 100% my type of fighter. Brave, technically good, wicked body puncher, lovely combinations and a hint of vulnerability. Cracking.....

[petr]

superb from burns. fought the perfect fight. he took the aussies best tonite. mitchell next would make sense.