2012 OLYMPIC GAMES LONDON - Schedule and Results [R]

[mike222]

The Brits are getting good support but the Irish,Indian and American boxers are getting plenty of cheers as well.I dont think home advantage is worth that much in this type of competition,the real bias tends to come out in much smaller tournaments and every country is liable to do it.I always cater for home bias in tournament evaluation.

[mike222]

Karla Magliocco has become a star at the excel arena.The Venezuelan flyweight appears when ever one of her countrymen box and has been very vocal in her support-every time she shouts instructions the crowd go into choruses of OLE OLE.If she gets through to face Marlen Esparza she may well be exhausted

[emile]

I keep hearing about a study that said the host country gets a 50% medal boost from being at home. Applied to boxing, that would be another medal or two beyond expectations for the GB team. I definitely see that happening, but I also think GB (and Ireland) are going to do well simply because they have strong teams at the moment. I think the USA could also do better than I, and others, have predicted - both because this scoring system is more to their liking and I think the young fighters are starting to adapt to international competition. I think its a stronger team than it was in Beijing.

I haven't been able to score any bouts yet because my stream feed keeps getting hung up. I'll try again - I expect once we get to the round of 16 and beyond and the bouts start getting really close, we will have much more controversy.

Really liked what I saw from Petrauskas. It would be nice to see him go pro somewhere where he can have a real career. He looks like a handful.

[T Duquette]

First loss for Team USA - Marcus Browne. I didn't predict Browne to win a medal especially due to his tough draw. Hooper followed by Mekhontsev is brutal. The boxers who must win and get medals are Warren, Esparza, and Spence then we need another medal or two out of Gausha, Shields and Ramirez. Then if Hunter, Herring, Underwood, Diaz or Breazeale can win a medal that would be great. 6 medals from the 12 USA boxers in London would be an accomplishment, especially if at least one is gold.

That would really be something, im crossing my fingers.

Really sucks about Marcus though, I really like his style. He will be the most successful pro from the class of 2012 in my opinion.

[T Duquette]

I keep hearing about a study that said the host country gets a 50% medal boost from being at home. Applied to boxing, that would be another medal or two beyond expectations for the GB team. I definitely see that happening, but I also think GB (and Ireland) are going to do well simply because they have strong teams at the moment. I think the USA could also do better than I, and others, have predicted - both because this scoring system is more to their liking and I think the young fighters are starting to adapt to international competition. I think its a stronger team than it was in Beijing.

I haven't been able to score any bouts yet because my stream feed keeps getting hung up. I'll try again - I expect once we get to the round of 16 and beyond and the bouts start getting really close, we will have much more controversy.

Really liked what I saw from Petrauskas. It would be nice to see him go pro somewhere where he can have a real career. He looks like a handful.

I think its in here somewhere

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman- ... ons-2012-7

[Dennis]

Really sucks about Marcus though, I really like his style. He will be the most successful pro from the class of 2012 in my opinion.

Depends on your definition of success. World title, most money, most TV exposure, etc. I personally think Diaz and Ramirez will make excellent pros who if moved properly will fight for world titles. Warren if he wins a gold will have instant fame and could be promoted like Gamboa and be fighting for a world title in his 8th or 9th bout. Hunter has skills and if he boxes up to his potential could surprise a lot of people and win a medal like Wilder did 4 years ago. The difference is Mike has lots of international experience and is hot and cold. Sometimes he looks great and is able to defeat Russian boxers and other times he seems to choke and lose to much lesser competition. If he wins a medal, he like Warren would get instant fame. He could be moved a lot faster than Wilder since he has better boxing skills and doesn't need as much time to develop as a pro. Hunter will have to earn a medal a lot more than Wilder did since he has a much tougher draw to the medal rounds than Wilder did 4 years ago.

Gausha will be an entertaining pro who will be in a lot of exciting fights. He is tough and willing to exchange so think a bigger version of Mickey Ward or Arturo Gatti. Definitely not Mayweather skills but still could be very successful. Herring - I don't see him turning pro. Spence is a difficult one to predict. I think he could move down and box at 140 or 147 and do very well. With a medal around his neck, promoters will want him. He has the skills to adapt to a lot of different boxing styles and be successful. Breazeale is big but very green. I just don't see him making it big as a pro. We will see.

[Dennis]

Jamel Herring lost 9-19. He did not look good. He waited too much and didn't go after the win even when he was down big going into the last round. I thought the score should have been a little closer but he clearly lost. This bout was one that I didn't expect Herring to win but it is the kind of bout that Team USA needs to win to have a great Olympics in boxing. The 10 USA boxers remaining in the tournament really need to give it their all and win some bouts they aren't expected to win.

[emile]

Warren doesn't have an easy opener, and it would be heartbreaking to see him lose again in his first bout. I'm a big fan of Oubaali since seeing him Chicago, but I do think his aggressive style plays in favor of Warren's handspeed. Spence's opponent Krishan Vikas is the opposite - a very effective and tricky tactical fighter (he has said he doesn't like to watch his own fights because they are so boring). Spence is going to have to be patient and not get frustrated.

The super heavyweights should be exciting - I expect there will be several ko's tomorrow, and people are going to be excited for all these giants - Joshua and Yoka are 6'6, Zhang is 6'7, Dychko 6'9 and all are on the same side of the draw.

[mike222]

So home advantage is worth two gold medals.Britain got 19 in Beijing so we can expect at least 21 in London.Does anyone know when, going into Day 5 we havent got one yet.
Beware of statistics they are only as good as the person interpreting them-I will give an example later.

[mike222]

Just going back to the home advantage thing.I did a quick check on the 16 post-war Olympics.
There were 173 Championships and 20 were won by a boxer from the hosting nation(about 11%).
This seems high and if you break it down by hosts you get the following
USA 10 RUS 1 ITA 3 MEX 2 KOR 2 FIN 1 JAP 1
If you stop here it looks like the biggest beneficiary is the USA-That is the danger of statistics
However dig a little deeper and you see nine of that ten came in the 1984 Games when the US had an exceptional team and the Cubans and the Eastern europeans werent there.Exclude 1984 then you get 11 champions in 161 competitions a percentage of 6% not that high

[emile]

Did anyone see the Houya-Gadzhialiyev fight? One of the elements of the current scoring system is the difficulty of coming back from behind (although that was definitely true of the previous system as well), but Houya was down three going into the third and won the round by six! I'll have to see if NBC is keeping these fights to be streamed. This also would seem to put to bed the idea that Azerbaijan gets special treatment at these events - I think they are 1-3 so far.

[T Duquette]

Just going back to the home advantage thing.I did a quick check on the 16 post-war Olympics.
There were 173 Championships and 20 were won by a boxer from the hosting nation(about 11%).
This seems high and if you break it down by hosts you get the following
USA 10 RUS 1 ITA 3 MEX 2 KOR 2 FIN 1 JAP 1
If you stop here it looks like the biggest beneficiary is the USA-That is the danger of statistics
However dig a little deeper and you see nine of that ten came in the 1984 Games when the US had an exceptional team and the Cubans and the Eastern europeans werent there.Exclude 1984 then you get 11 champions in 161 competitions a percentage of 6% not that high

Good stuff Mike. Now if we could just get AIBA and/or Swiss Timing to learn a little more about statistics we could fix this scoring system. Applying the outlier principle not once but twice to a sample size of only 5 has to be about the most moronic thing ive ever heard of.

Also, who says there has to be only 5 judges per fight? The more judges the better. Lets average the scores of 7 judges instead (or 9,10,12,etc...). The more scores taken into account, the more these scores will reflect the consensus--thats basic stuff.

[emile]

It's amazing how similar the judge's scores have been. Not that I've been able to find all five scores, but the three accepted scores are almost, to a fight, nearly identical. It doesn't seem possible to me they could all be so close, when there are plenty of close fights with tough to gauge inside fighting and the judges having different views. I'd like to believe they have just been drilled really well and are totally on the same page, but I also recall locoexbox saying that a tournament the judges were positioning themselves so they could see what other judges were doing, because they would be assessed better if they were close to what others were scoring. Since there haven't been any really controversial bouts, it hasn't mattered much - nor has it seemed to mattered much how many judges they have or how many outliers they strike.

I watched the third round of Houya-Gadzhialiyev and it didn't look like such a clear round as was scored (11-5 Houya), but since I did not try to score it myself, I can't really criticize. Gadz fought dumbly, staying at the ideal distance for Houya to land showy punches instead of moving in and out. But it's surprising to me that all three accepted scores would be so similar.

[Dennis]

Joseph Diaz Jr lost to the Cuban. I sure like how Diaz boxed, he will make an exciting pro. In a pro style scoring system, Diaz would win especially if it went more rounds. The Cubans have mastered how to box using the Olympic scoring system. The Cuban boxer was quick both with his hands and feet.

[Dennis]

In the Marcus Browne bout vs Hooper, Marcus sure looked like he ran out of gas in the 3rd round. I thought the scoring in that bout was very accurate. That was a bout that Marcus could have won had his conditioning been a little better.

[JMac]

Mike Hunter lost to the Russian Beterbiev on count back. Mike had a 1 point lead after the 1st and 2nd. It was tied 10-10 after the 3rd. There was lots of holding by both. Mike started off well using his jab and had he used it in the 3rd, he would have won. What a shame.
John Joe Nevin looked good for Ireland. He had good movement and caught the KAZ boxer coming in the whole bout.

[Dennis]

Michael Hunter's conditioning let him down in the 3rd round. He was not using his boxing skills enough. Had he done so, he would have won the bout. Beterbiev is strong, but definitely a good style matchup which I thought Hunter would win. It was another bout that Team USA needed to win to have a chance at surprising people.

I was really impressed with Diaz's conditioning. He looked like he would have won had it gone more rounds. Hunter and Browne were the opposite.

Now Team USA needs to have the boxers who I thought had the best chance at medaling to win and get those medals. Warren, Esparza, Spence, Gausha, Shields and Ramirez. Then if Underwood or Breazeale can win a medal it would still be unbelievable. I still think Team USA would have done excellent if they can come away with 4 or 5 medals especially if they get at least one gold.

[JMac]

Breazeale lost 19-8 to the much more experienced Russian. I thought Breazeale did OK considering he probably had less bout coming into the Olympics than Deontay Wilder. Breazeale kept coming forward but he did get caught with a good punch with only 8 seconds left. He was down 5-0 after the 1st and received a standing 8 that I don't think he needed. He needed the 8 count in the 3rd which he got. With some experience I think he could be a good amateur but he'll probaly turn pro or hang up the gloves since he is a bit older as he has gone to university.

[emile]

Really liked Diaz, he's going to be good. Hunter maybe should have been up 2 or 3 after the first round, but he just couldn't keep it going and I have no qualms about the decision. I've always thought his footwork was problematic, which negates his handspeed.

[mike222]

For me Diaz is better than Alvarez was at 19-he should have a bright future.Breazale has only been boxing,(I believe) for three years-wasnt he a quarterback.Omarov is a product of the Russian system and has been fighting at the top level for years-he is European champion.
I too felt that Hunters conditioning let him down but it could be the power has Beterbiyev has.
Perea fought poor tactically but he seriously wobbled Cammarelle in the last thirty seconds.

[mike222]

Magomed Omarov
Born 10/6/89
Boxing since 2004
Single
Place of birth Dagestan
Drives BMW X5
Likes Basketball
Movie Braveheart
Wants to go to Vegas
Per his profile

[emile]

Omarov-Medzhidov is an all-Dagestan bout. I like Perea, if only he wasn't so short he could be pretty good. Oscar Valdez was something of a revelation - Yunusov was far too passive, but Valdez really mixes the Mexican and Amateur styles well and is compact in his punching. He and Nevin should be an interesting bout.

[emile]

Impressed with Ibrahim Balla, another young fighter with a good pro style. I thought he did a little better than his scores against Dalakliev - I had him +2 in the second, but it was judged even.

[emile]

Oof, that's the first really controversial result. Shimizu was battering Abdulhamidov in the 3rd, and the Azeri fell down over and over, but Shimizu only won the round 12-10 and lost by 5. Even if the IOC doesn't want to encourage knockdowns, you'd think adding a 2-point score for a knockdown would at least prevent this falling/stalling tactic. Shmizu, who supposedly got a bit lucky against Dogboe, now gets really unlucky.

[emile]

Now more controversy as the veteran Iranian Ali Mazaheri is DQ'd after three quick warnings for (I believe) pushing down the head of Larduet. Mazaheri had taken the lead in the 1st 6-4, after Larduet was warned in that round for something.

Before that Jai Opetaia nearly upset Teymur Mammadov but lost by one point. Opetaia is only 17 and looked really good - Australia has some nice talent this time.