Cotto Martinez - who wins?

[Wales]

More suited to current scene but I don't value their opinion. Plus, if that's not a good enough reason for the thread to stay here there's the Martin Murray factor.

Anyone else think that Cotto beats Martinez on basis Murray gave him fits and ran him so close? Surely Cotto is a bigger threat than Martin who remains unproven? Flip side is Cotto tailor made to be outfoxed and outboxed by the Argentinian veteran.

[crusader]

Not sure that Cotto is a bigger threat than Murray to be honest. He's much smaller, doesn't have any notable wins over the past several years, and his one-sided loss to Trout who is good, but not that good, suggests to me that he's lost a few steps. I know Sergio is old and struggling with injuries, but they haven't lead to him being dominated like Cotto has and they haven't stopped him from fairly beating several top middleweights over the past few years.

Cotto hasn't scored a win over the past few years that suggests to me that he's still an elite fighter, let alone a top fighter in a division where he'll be greatly undersized and has yet to compete in, and even against shot Mayorga and Foreman I thought he looked fairly lackluster and dropped several rounds. I also don't think Cotto has the strength to impose himself on Martinez like Murray consistently did or like Chavez did in the final round, and I don't think his skills are significantly better than Martinez's, which could be very important considering that he'll be the smaller and lighter-punching man.

It's a fight where I can see either man winning, but I think people are too quick to focus on Martinez's recent problems while not examining where Cotto has fallen short over the past few years. Martinez's injuries may finally do him in this time, and I think that's the big question, but I believe he'll probably have enough left to edge this one.

[Newport Daz]

Personally I just don't see this as a close fight at all. Cotto will not hurt Martinez at any point. His power looked average at 154,is short for middleweight, isn't particularly fast, gets hit and can be hurt. Martinez is a speedy southpaw with good power, is much bigger and has been middleweight for a long time. I think Cotto and his people are basing too much on the Murray fight. Murray is a very under-rated boxer who is much bigger in size and power than Cotto.

Let's not forget Cotto hasn't looked especially good for a long time either and unless Martinez' body is completely shot I see Cotto being stopped in 7-8 rounds.

[Taansend]

I think this is a tough one to call.

If he was at his best, or even 75%, Martinez wins this quite comfortably.

But his body is worn out. I think he's as fragile as paper nowadays (relatively speaking).

Cotto is a much better & tougher fighter than either Jnr or Murray although he's also a fair bit smaller.

On the flip side how much does Cotto have left? He's only won one bout in the last three years - and that was against a fighter who's only won 5 of HIS last 13 bouts.

This is a fight between two quality boxers both well past their best. I'm expecting fireworks

[Final round]

Martinez

[handsofstone]

Martinez takes a wide points for me,im expecting a much better Sergio than the one that boxed Murray,i reckon Martinez is gonna put a similar performance to the Chavez Jr one and im expecting Cotto's gonna be looking a lot worse after 12 than JCC

[Finn]

Im not convince by either fighter at the moment the odds are good for cotto to win, i havent been impressed with martinez for a long time now. He lost against murray as far as im concerned, and he struggled for a fair while with darren barker who wasnt a particularly strong puncher (injured or not sturm destroyed him in minutes). Cotto has lost to trout who is decent but not amazing and floyd who did have a tough night with him.

[davie]

Both in their prime, they were fantastic fighters.
I'd have found it hard to split them pound for pound.
But in the ring i'd have to have gone for Martinez at middleweight just because he would be more comfortable at the weight

but fighting now i find it extremely difficult to pick a winner as it will largely come down to how much each guy has left and thats something that is very hard to call

again i'd probably lean towards Martinez but it's impossible to call just how shot each fighter is

[gilgamesh]

I'm thinking Cotto W12, but it's a real pick 'em fight.

[bigB]

I think Cotto will pip him on a SD

[n1ebf]

Providing Martinez doesn't have any recurrences of his knee, or hand injuries - this stands to be great match I'd say. You don't have to look very far to see it's being broadcast here in the UK too. I'd probably go for Martinez, if forced.

[TheLeprechaun]

Providing Martinez doesn't have any recurrences of his knee, or hand injuries - this stands to be great match I'd say. You don't have to look very far to see it's being broadcast here in the UK too. I'd probably go for Martinez, if forced.

Yep I think you have to favour Martinez here. Cotto will have the crowd though and perhaps Martinez might not be fully fit. If Martinez is on song, Cotto will be chasing his shadow all night and I also expect some clean left hands to land on Cottos chin. At this higher weight, Cotto could be stopped.

[Kilburn]

I'm leaning to Cotto in this fight. But liking the reports that Martinez is in good shape.

[Teddy's Toupee]

Cotto will get stopped inside six rounds.

[MR T]

Cotto cut to shreds and stopped...Martinez all wrong for him

[tallsdav]

Cotto all the way for me.

[stujones]

Martinez so inconsistent these days it is hard to know which one will turn up. You have the fighter who put on a bit of a clinic for 7/8th of the Chavez fights, or you have the fighter who struggled against the three brits.

When the fight was first announced I immediately thought Cotto - although Martinez is fantastic I did wonder who has he beaten of Cotto's standing? Paul Williams was excellent yes, but not as proven as Cotto at the elite level.

Plus I thought, both a truly bulked up Welters - Martinez continuinally says he can make Light Middle, the size different isn't going to be massive..... then you see them next to each other and you can see quite a big difference.

Then you flip it around, Cotto's 3 defeats - two against men who were quicker than him, one against a guy who is bigger than him. Cotto is facing a guy bigger and faster than him at the weekend.... but although bigger and faster, doesn't have the best of defense.... has (along time ago admittedly) shown issues with his ticker when going to the trenches and has never faced a fighter on Cotto's level.

I'm completely on the fence for this one, my original call was Cotto before seeing them both together.

One things for certain, its making the middleweight division come alive - GGG was becoming "the man" without beating anyone - whoever wins on Saturday I hope to see the mouthwatering clash with triple G later in the year.

[crusader]

When the fight was first announced I immediately thought Cotto - although Martinez is fantastic I did wonder who has he beaten of Cotto's standing? Paul Williams was excellent yes, but not as proven as Cotto at the elite level.

What has Cotto proven at 160 or even 154 and when was the last time he beat a good opponent? In my opinion something he has proven is that he's no longer an elite fighter, at least at 154, and I can't see him getting better by moving up again.

For me it's a matter of whether Sergio injures himself. I have no doubt that he'll win if his injuries don't seriously flare up, but it seems like there is a realistic possibility that they might. Then again, the bouts in which he seriously injured himself were against Murray and Chavez, both of whom are far bigger and likely stronger than Cotto, who will be tiny for 160.

[johnswan1]

I expect Martinez should be able to toy with him and beat him easily, unless he is injured. Cotto is below the level of best at Light Middle, whereas Martinez has proved he is among the best at Middle.

Really Cotto has done little above Welter. Nobody rated Foreman, Mayorga and Margarito were both badly shot, and he was beaten soundly by Mayweather and Trout. There is absolutely nothing to suggest he can beat a fit and healthy Martinez.

[The Insider]

Cotto cut to shreds and stopped...Martinez all wrong for him

I thought this too. Martinez too cagey and see Cotto just getting picked off.

[stujones]

When the fight was first announced I immediately thought Cotto - although Martinez is fantastic I did wonder who has he beaten of Cotto's standing? Paul Williams was excellent yes, but not as proven as Cotto at the elite level.

What has Cotto proven at 160 or even 154 and when was the last time he beat a good opponent? In my opinion something he has proven is that he's no longer an elite fighter, at least at 154, and I can't see him getting better by moving up again.

For me it's a matter of whether Sergio injures himself. I have no doubt that he'll win if his injuries don't seriously flare up, but it seems like there is a realistic possibility that they might. Then again, the bouts in which he seriously injured himself were against Murray and Chavez, both of whom are far bigger and likely stronger than Cotto, who will be tiny for 160.

You don't think Martinez's age might play a factor. What is he - 38? and for a speedster that is quite ancient.... add his inactivity also.

The three brit boys showed that Martinez is there for the taking and for me they are a level below the elite.

Yes you can say Cotto is largely unproven as an elite at 154 and certainly at 160. I can see that, but then it is an awkward division when the number #1 guy is arguably the greatest fighter of all time and would probably be heavily favoured to beat Martinez.

Yeah the trout defeat doesn't bode well, but then on the flip side you could say his performance against Mayweather was a lot better than Alvarez's who beat Trout. Trout aside you could say his performances at Light Middle have been among his best of his career.

The performances of the brit boys post Martinez haven't been much to write home about. Macklin was smashed by GGG, Murray has not looked good.... Barker did the best, but he was a crock also with injuries. Even with wins over shot Mayorga and Margarito - Cotto is more proven at world level than the Brit boys who gave Martinez lots of trouble.

[crusader]

Code: Select all

You don't think Martinez's age might play a factor. What is he - 38? and for a speedster that is quite ancient.... add his inactivity also. 

Martinez is obviously getting up there, but he was a late bloomer and I think without his injuries he'd have more than enough to beat Cotto, who has obviously slowed himself and has taken beatings (e.g. Pacquiao and Margarito) that Martinez hasn't experienced anything close to. Despite his age I think Martinez is still clearly faster than Cotto, punches harder, and moves better when his injuries don't flare up. The inactivity may be an issue, although perhaps a year out of the ring is what his body needs.

The three brit boys showed that Martinez is there for the taking and for me they are a level below the elite.

Martinez wasn't impressive against them, and I've talked before about how those performances don't correspond with the lofty P4P rankings he was given at the time. I thought, however, that he beat Barker handily (he struggled but I had him winning 8-2 at the time of the stoppage), and he seemed more concerned with posturing than punching in the first part of the Macklin fight, so I think that was an under-performance; once he got the punches flowing he dominated, and I don't think Cotto has the hustling style that helped Macklin exploit Sergio's relatively lackluster start. The fight with Murray was more worrisome, because he took more damage than he did against the other three and he seemed to be really trying, not as in parts of the Macklin fight, but Murray also had a lot of his success through exerting his size and strength on Martinez, which I don't think Cotto will do to the same extent because of how small he is.

I'd also say that while none of the Brits are among the elite, though at this point I think GGG is the only elite fighter in the division, they were all generally ranked in the top ten and in good form coming in or showed good form very shortly after. Macklin and Murray had their impressive performances against Sturm, who was then a more formidable opponent than he is now, and Barker went on to fairly beat Geale. Conversely, Mayorga had one win, that over a journeyman, in the last 3.5 years coming into his bout with Cotto and he never fought again, which given how he fought on after more one-sided losses suggests to me that he new he was at the end of the line in boxing. Margarito had one win in the last 3 years, wasn't competitive in the losses he suffered during that time, took beatings from Mosley and Pacquiao, and was essentially a one-eyed fighter. Obviously he had fought at a high level, but he was a shell of himself when he rematch Cotto.

Cotto also beat Foreman and Rodriguez at 154, but I'd say each of the Brits was better than both of them, especially Rodriguez, who is nowhere near world class.

Yeah the trout defeat doesn't bode well, but then on the flip side you could say his performance against Mayweather was a lot better than Alvarez's who beat Trout. Trout aside you could say his performances at Light Middle have been among his best of his career.

On the whole I don't think Cotto's impressed at 154. The only fights I thought he won thoroughly were against Rodriguez and Margarito, and you can see my views on those opponents above. I didn't see him as impressive against Mayorga or Foreman, and I had him losing after 5 to the latter, before the injury occurred. The Mayweather performance was his best moment at 154, but Mayweather is more of a small welterweight than true junior middleweight, which I think is important to note if you're trying to figure out how Cotto fits in with significantly bigger opponents like Martinez, and while Trout is good he is not good enough for me to see a dominating loss to him as anything other than a sign that Cotto is fading, and he looked like he had slowed down a step.

The performances of the brit boys post Martinez haven't been much to write home about. Macklin was smashed by GGG, Murray has not looked good.... Barker did the best, but he was a crock also with injuries. Even with wins over shot Mayorga and Margarito - Cotto is more proven at world level than the Brit boys who gave Martinez lots of trouble.

Murray hasn't looked good since the Martinez fight, but Macklin has a decent win over an unbeaten prospect and Barker won a belt against a top 5 opponent. That's leagues better than Mayorga and Margarito retiring immediately after, Foreman retiring one fight later after being stopped in 6 by Pawel Wolak, and Delvin Rodriguez drawing with shot Joachim Alcine immediately after. Mayweather has since beaten Alvarez impressively and edged Maidana in a competitive fight, but I think Cotto's performance against him is an outlier.

I would give Murray, Macklin, and the typical version of Barker great chances against Cotto. In my opinion he's very undersized for the division and doesn't have a particularly good skillset or impressive speed, which is important when you're so much smaller than your opponents. I think Cotto is still living off a reputation he built years ago as an elite fighter at 140 and a good one at 147, but since moving up he hasn't shown me a lot and he definitely hasn't shown me as much as Martinez has.

[handsofstone]

I says Martinez wide at the start of this thread,ah la Chavez Jr then when it came to PTBF i went with Martinez close points but now after watching 24/7 i'm starting to think maybe Cotto might edge it on points

I'm not convinced Sergio's over his many injuries,even if the knee does hold up,will his hands? or his shoulder? im thinking maybe not,especially at 38 against Cotto even if he is coming up to 160 for the first time

I'll keep my original prediction on PTBF though,still in the top 20

[Autobarn]

cotto has struggled vs defensive fighters (mayweather) and rangy, cautious fighters (trout) recently. as have great Puerto rican fighters such as Edwin Rosario and wilfredo Vazquez, also of stumpy build. notice how much more decisively Rosario and Vazquez did when the rangy opponents traded with them (Rosario-Anthony jones & Vazquez-eloy rojas KOs) as opposed to boxing them (rosario's narrow escape vs howard davis jr & Vazquez's points defeat to the late Antonio cermeno). you could also use cotto-pinto to illustrate this.

Martinez isn't rangy; he's compact at 160. and he won't be defensive vs cotto. he will trade, as he has vs most of his major middleweight opponents. he is an elite fighter, with speed and talent, who will use that talent aggressively - as opposed to so much of that cautious, shifty stuff we see in boxing today. what I'm saying is, Martinez gives his challengers a chance to nail him. cotto has a good repertoire of shots and will land some of them - with force. it's an attractive fight. Martinez usually responds well in a crisis. cotto at times will look good. but cotto is going to be hit much harder. there's more chance of cotto getting brutally blown away - like no one else has managed to do.

I expect an exciting and dramatic win for Martinez, who really deserves this attractive opponent, sadly late in his career.

[Kilburn]

A lot more love for Martinez than I was expecting.

Cotto while the smaller man here appeared fresh and dangerous last time out while Martinez never looked more beatable. Definitely a fascinating clash.