The Reality of Pac's Chances: A Realistic Look

[bnovelist]

We know Floyd is the favorite we all are aware of this....Leave your heart and emotion out of the window and look at the stats.

Pac has destroyed guys that Mayweather has struggled against looking vunerable at times. Oscar, Hatton, & Cotto. Mayweather's only

common opponent that he edges Pac is with a blown up fat Marquez who just moved up in weight.... When you look at the common

opponents it spells a win for Manny Pac.

Also Pac was able to penetrate the defense of Joshua Clottey who to has a the best defense in boxing after Mayweather. Very FEW are able

to penetrate Clottey's defensive prowess. If Pac didn't accept the bribe and I am hoping he didn't!!!! This fight will end up like Pac vs

Clottey but the only thing is that we don't know if Mayweather's chin is made of iron like a Joshua Clottey. I just hope its a real genuine

fight. Floyd and Haymon operating together?????? Man please both of those brains contemplating shady things happen!!! I hope Pac didn't

accept the bribe that's all.

[Badhusker]

We know Floyd is the favorite we all are aware of this....Leave your heart and emotion out of the window and look at the stats.

Pac has destroyed guys that Mayweather has struggled against looking vunerable at times. Oscar, Hatton, & Cotto. Mayweather's only

common opponent that he edges Pac is with a blown up fat Marquez who just moved up in weight.... When you look at the common

opponents it spells a win for Manny Pac.

Also Pac was able to penetrate the defense of Joshua Clottey who to has a the best defense in boxing after Mayweather. Very FEW are able

to penetrate Clottey's defensive prowess. If Pac didn't accept the bribe and I am hoping he didn't!!!! This fight will end up like Pac vs

Clottey but the only thing is that we don't know if Mayweather's chin is made of iron like a Joshua Clottey. I just hope its a real genuine

fight. Floyd and Haymon operating together?????? Man please both of those brains contemplating shady things happen!!! I hope Pac didn't

accept the bribe that's all.

Speaking of Bribes - Clottey vs Pac was one of the best examples of a fight where a guy looked like he was paid not to fight. Every time he threw he was effective. His trainer couldn't make it to the US because of Visa problems? Come on. Clottey disappeared from the fight scene for quite a while because of it, but probably didn't need the money. The only reason it wasn't at a catch weight is because Clottey couldn't get down lower, but Roach tried his best.

DLH, Cotto, and Hatton are always being brought up as common opponents. Floyd beat DLH and Cotto at 154, not dehydrated versions that Pac beat. Hatton was undefeated when Floyd beat him. DLH had not been to 147 in 9 years. Cotto was already having a hard time making 147. A dehydrated version of Hatton, after ballooning up to 180 and cutting to 140 after depression was the guy that Pac beat. Hatton's own fault, but it should still be said. Roach knew he would be weaker at 140.

Both guys beat them, but if you are going to compare, its hard to do that because the situations were much different.

[koolkc107]

The biggest problem with the "Manny destroyed guys that Floyd simply beat" logic is that strong arguments can be made for the view that Mayweather faced vastly superior versions of at least 3 of the 5 common opponents and perhaps 4.

The only opponent who turns out to be easier for Floyd is probably JMM, although I have heard it said that it would have made no difference what the circumstance were when they met. Supporters of this view point to the fact that Marquez has never petitioned for a rematch with Floyd. This is a man who beat the drums to get 3 more bouts with Pac, yet once was enough against Mayweather.

Floyd fought DLH, Hatton, and Shane first. DLH at Oscars natural weight at the time. Hatton when he was undefeated. Mosley coming off the hugest win of his late career.

By contrast, Pac fought a skeletal Oscar, a Hatton who'd clearly lost something (because of Floyd?) almost being KOed by Lazcano a fight or two earlier, and a Mosley that showed he was done the previous fight against Mora.

As for Cotto, folks point to the catchweight of 145 having just as much to do with Miguel's loss as anything Pac did. They note that Cotto was having problems making 147 (nevermind 145), so much so that he never fought at 147 again. And they point to the events that occurred in early 2012 (some consider this a clear duck of Miguel by Manny), when Pac approached Cotto for a rematch only to have Miguel insist it take place at 154.

If you are looking at the common opponents the two have faced, it might do just as well to ask them who they think would win.

I can't find video on Cotto, but is is known he actually thinks Floyd hits harder than Manny. Here are the other 4.


DLH is rooting for Pac but thinks Floyd will win. This is Oscar after Mosley fight.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZIoCTMiO2A

Hatton recently (scroll forward to about 2:13)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlKE--gmg7I

JMM told Manny to his face right before he wound up KHTFO (about 2:45)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LZtiuZzrb0

Mosley says Mayweather (beginning around 1:28)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAdE1I6fAbY

[Taansend]

Hagler struggled with Duran whereas Hearns destroyed Duran.

If Hearns & Hagler ever meet in the ring I fear for Hagler's safety.

I love the common opponent yardstick.

[CheckHook]

To be fair to Pacquiao, he would've beaten Cotto and Hatton at any weight and any point of their careers. Just like Floyd would've cruised to a 12-0 win over any version of Marquez.

[KBB]

We know Floyd is the favorite we all are aware of this....Leave your heart and emotion out of the window and look at the stats.

Pac has destroyed guys that Mayweather has struggled against looking vunerable at times. Oscar, Hatton, & Cotto. Mayweather's only

common opponent that he edges Pac is with a blown up fat Marquez who just moved up in weight.... When you look at the common

opponents it spells a win for Manny Pac.

Also Pac was able to penetrate the defense of Joshua Clottey who to has a the best defense in boxing after Mayweather. Very FEW are able

to penetrate Clottey's defensive prowess. If Pac didn't accept the bribe and I am hoping he didn't!!!! This fight will end up like Pac vs

Clottey but the only thing is that we don't know if Mayweather's chin is made of iron like a Joshua Clottey. I just hope its a real genuine

fight. Floyd and Haymon operating together?????? Man please both of those brains contemplating shady things happen!!! I hope Pac didn't

accept the bribe that's all.

LOL, you are a funny character, you say leave your emotions out of this but then go on to make the following quotes:

he edges Pac is with a blown up fat Marquez

penetrate the defense of Joshua Clottey who to has a the best defense<<<<<<<you can't be serious about the "best" defense, lol

If Pac didn't accept the bribe

Man please both of those brains contemplating shady things happen

Are you a clown? If not, you missed your calling at the circus, Ringling Brothers will be calling you soon.

[Counter-puncher]

I am glad we've had a realistic look at the reality of Pac's chances. a naive, whimsical or otherwise misguided look at his chances is not what this site, or indeed the world needs, right now.

[HitBattousai]

Pacquiao didn't really penetrate Clottey's defense much. He was just able to keep him behind that defense the vast majority of the fight with ridiculous power punching volume. And Clottey's defense is based entirely on blocking, he doesn't have the shoulder roll, doesn't have close to the boxing acumen of Floyd, or the athleticism that Floyd possesses.

Also, the common opponent argument doesn't usually work well with the boxers possessing such different styles. It's logic like Mayorga > Forrest, Forrest > Mosley, Mosley > DLH, therefore Mayorga > Mosley and DLH in a head-to-head. Obviously things didn't play out that way. That Floyd comparatively eeked by some of their shared opponents doesn't have any bearing on this matchup. Floyd hasn't faced anyone with the package that Manny Pacquiao brings to the table. But Manny hasn't faced anyone that matches what Floyd brings either.

All this is not to say that Pacquaio can't put Floyd on the defensive at times. But it would shock me if he was able to do so the entire fight, as it would also surprise me if Floyd won a lopsided decision in a showcase. I'm expecting a close fight, and while I'm not holding my breath for a classic, it will be a genuine fight.

[Badhusker]

To be fair to Pacquiao, he would've beaten Cotto and Hatton at any weight and any point of their careers. Just like Floyd would've cruised to a 12-0 win over any version of Marquez.

I think you are right. At the time Roach was the most pathetic SOB on the planet with his catch-weight BS. Cotto at 145, DLH at 147, Mosley at 145, then 142, then 140 (and after Mosley agreed, they still refused to fight him). They tried to get Clottey at 144. Margarito at 150.

Roach is a master at getting weight advantages, whether it be up or down for guys to force them to fight where they are least comfortable. I blame him for that, but not Pac.