Why Lemieux can beat Golovkin

[johnswan1]

In all my internet readings I have not been able to find a single independent name who has tipped up Lemieux to win this fight, or even any who have made a strong case for him to win other than landing a lucky wild punch.

Of course Golovkin deserves to be favourite, and most of us are familiar with how Lemieux folded against Rubio a few years ago.

At 26 years old Lemieux is a much more mature and complete fighter than he was back in 2011, and this is most evident in his last few fights.

Rarely do you see a fighter commit to his punches like Lemieux does but watching his fights one thing you notice is that his hand speed is pretty good and not all of those punches are telegraphed. He's able to mix it up well from the body to head and most importantly, his defence is surprisingly good for a pressure fighter as he keeps his hands and guard up well and is constantly moving.

Looking at Golovkin you see a guy who has had an extremely impressive career both as an amateur and in the pros. He is exciting and devastating to watch and prides himself in the fact that he has never been off his feet - not even in sparring.

The problem for me with Golovkin is that he may have fallen in love a little too much with his own power and ability to absorb punches. Apart from Stevens he's never had to contend with anybody who can punch, and no opponent he's been in with has had much difficulty landing flush shots on him - the feather fisted Monroe had almost two whole rounds of teeing off on him.

Going back to their last two fights, Golovkin had Monroe Jr (Boxrec no.13) while Lemieux had Ndam (Boxrec no.15). Neither guy is elite, but I'd give Ndam the edge marginally on the back of his win over Stevens and experience against better opponents. GGG's superior footwork allowed him to stop his man while Lemieux had to make do with multiple knockdowns and a decision. Despite this I felt Monroe landed more meaningful and flush shots than Ndam did, only he lacked the pop to make it matter.

So the questions for me are:

1. Will Golovkin fight his usual fight of coming forward with no regard for what his opponent has, or will he fight cautiously through the first few rounds, a style we haven't really seen him use since making his US debut. If he comes forward he will undoubtedly get tagged just as he did against ever other opponent, and I don't care how good a chin is, they can all be cracked. Margarito is the best example of that.

2. Will Lemieux fold as soon as Golovkin lands his first hard punch? I really hope that doesn't happen but I haven't seen any signs of Lemieux being hurt or shaken in a fight outside of the Rubio fight which came after he had recklessly punched himself out and had nothing left to give.

For me Golovkin is the one who is under the most pressure in this fight given it's his big night and he's heavily favoured to win, and is the one who needs to change the most from his usual way of fighting. I see both with similar power (maybe an edge to Lemieux given the sheer force behind his shots), Golovkin with the better chin, accuracy, experience, footwork and finishing, Lemieux with the better hand speed and defence.

If I had to put my house on a winner it would be GGG, but I genuinely think Lemieux has a better chance than he's being given credit for. Provided he doesn't fall apart from the off I think GGG has a real fight on his hands here and I can't see the bout going to the halfway point without GGG being hurt or at least without having had to absorb the hardest shots he's ever had to take during his career.

Come on Lemieux!

[jezzamundo]

Great post, I completely agree with everything you said, except 'come on Lemieux!' because I want GGG to win.

[jezzamundo]

This is an excellent video on the technical skills of the two fighters, I highly recommend checking it out:

http://www.badlefthook.com/2015/10/15/9 ... ado-boxing

I think he's on the money about Golovkin's skills regressing. He looked very scrappy in the first round against Rubio and was defensively irresponsible against both Murray and Monroe - although he clearly had no respect for their power. He was defensively irresponsible in patches against Stevens too. The fights where I was most impressed with GGG were vs Proksa, Ishida and Macklin, which were all a while ago. I'd really like to see him work on and use his boxing skills more - he certainly didn't get a 345-5 amateur record on his punching power.

[ikorolev]

This is an excellent video on the technical skills of the two fighters, I highly recommend checking it out:

http://www.badlefthook.com/2015/10/15/9 ... ado-boxing

I think he's on the money about Golovkin's skills regressing. He looked very scrappy in the first round against Rubio and was defensively irresponsible against both Murray and Monroe - although he clearly had no respect for their power. He was defensively irresponsible in patches against Stevens too. The fights where I was most impressed with GGG were vs Proksa, Ishida and Macklin, which were all a while ago. I'd really like to see him work on and use his boxing skills more - he certainly didn't get a 345-5 amateur record on his punching power.

Interesting video. About defensive skills, Golovkin definitely didn't respect Monroe and Murray, but what good would it do to him if he disposed of them in 1-2 rounds ? Would Lemieux have taken his fight then ? Would fans appreciate that or there would be even more talk that he is fighting bums ?

Tonight, it should become clear if his defensive skills are still there. Let's just wait and see.

P.S. I disagree that he looked very scrappy in the first round against Rubio. He was just establishing who the boss is in the MEXICAN WAY. Don't forget that the sales pitch for that fight was "Mexican style". I am sure that Rubio was impressed. He was just not talking after the fight, because he was ashamed of his quitting.

[Tony1244]

Very good and true post. I thought Lemieux had no chance until I watched Lemieux-Rosado and GGG-Monroe.

Both Lemieux and GGG are huge punchers who do get hit, so anything can happen. Sure, GGG is, and should be the favorite, but I agree, David is a live dawg.

[Counter-puncher]

Its an interesting comparison between GGG and Gonzalez. Gonzalez has definitely refined his game as a champion where GGG seemingly has regressed.

[Ilya Muromets]

Good thread by John, and good linked video by Jezz.

[Tanzio]

I also agree with the original post.

As a result of a combination of his lack of competition and his desire to be fan friendly, 3G appears to have allowed his skills to degrade.

One more factor could be age. 3G is 33. That is not especially old in boxing these days. However, many boxers, especially big punchers, begin to degrade naturally around 3G's age. Even if / when 3G wins tonight, he is on the clock. His management needs to accelerate his career, NOW.

I wouldn't mind seeing Lemieux pull this off. I agree that he has a better chance than most give him. That said, I see a lesser level Hitman v Hagler scenario with 3G playing the Hagler role and stopping Lemieux in the third in an all action affair.

[crusader]

I believe that GGG will win by stoppage because he's a more complete fighter, but Lemieux has the tools to make it very tough for him.

I've said it repeatedly and several others have noted it too, but despite his reputation as a destroyer GGG has shown the most vulnerability when opponents get in close and take the fight to him. He is someone who excels when intimidated opponents back off and are in 3/4 range where he can throw his signature looping punches, but he's ineffective when pushed back himself and doesn't seem to generate nearly the same power when he's head to head with an opponent and must tighten his shots up. Lemieux, on the other hand, excels from a very close distance and does the most damage with very short hooks, more than GGG does with the same shots in my opinion. GGG has also looked poor defensively for a few fights, and while he obviously has a good chin I'm not sure he can blithely take flush power punches from Lemieux in the way that he did against people like Murray and Monroe. Also, while Lemieux is unable to cut off the ring like GGG and often missed wildly against N'dam because he couldn't trap him, he's highly unlikely to face that issue against a come-forward fighter like Golovkin, and he should be able to set himself to throw.

For me a big question is if Lemieux will be characteristically aggressive and look to fight inside or adopt a more cautious game-plan that focuses on boxing and moving. I think the former may be more risky in that it increases his chances of being stopped quickly, but I also believe that it offers him a much better chance of success and perhaps even winning. To me a box and move plan is essentially just a slower death, so I hope Lemieux and his team aren't of the same mind as the people who have recommended this approach because they are unable to grasp that the best way to fight a power-puncher isn't always to back off.

[crow]

Good post.
I believe the reason the odds are so stacked against Lemieux is Golovkin's combination of great chin + ring generalship, which allows him to pace himself nicely while forcing his opponent to expend twice the energy by keeping away.

Macklin alluded to that.

Lemieux does tire after 6, and so, i expect a GGG 8th rd stoppage if Lemieux is clever enough not to go balls out right from the start and get knocked out in 3 rds.

[Boxerbeetle]

Good points raised on this thread. I suspect GGG will box a lot more in this fight, he will know that Lemieux has great power. I believe GGG has been so defensively slack recently partly because of the standard of opposition, but partly because he wanted to become known in the US as an exciting ko artist in order to secure fights like this one. Now he's achieved that, he can afford to box a bit cleverer and pick Lemieux apart steadily.

[crusader]

That's another thing I'm interested in. There has been talk for a while about whether GGG's defensive laxness is best explained by a lack of defensive ability or whether it's mainly due to him not respecting his opponents' power and a consequent willingness to take shots to give his own. While I believe that he is probably better defensively than he showed against Monroe and Murray, I'm not convinced that it's by a large margin. Unless he has an unreal chin and realizes that he can just walk through Lemieux's shots I think we'll see whether he can be much better defensively when needed.

[littlepug]

Although I believe GGG will win I don't think we should forget that some fighters do actually learn and improve after losses and I think Lemieux could be one of those fighters, I bet no one thought Benn could hang at world level after being schooled by Watson.

[Datsue]

That's another thing I'm interested in. There has been talk for a while about whether GGG's defensive laxness is best explained by a lack of defensive ability or whether it's mainly due to him not respecting his opponents' power and a consequent willingness to take shots to give his own. While I believe that he is probably better defensively than he showed against Monroe and Murray, I'm not convinced that it's by a large margin. Unless he has an unreal chin and realizes that he can just walk through Lemieux's shots I think we'll see whether he can be much better defensively when needed.

Awesome post.

Also agree with your earlier points RE: GGG's favourite range to fight in & why it's probably best to get right in his face.

Great thread all round. I concur with the general consensus: GGG's a rightful favourite but Lemieux is a live 'dog for a shitload of reasons... & who can truly resist the allure of two genuine punchers, both aggressive come-forward fighters, going at it for the middleweight title at Madison Square Garden?

My current man-crush, Roman Gonzalez, graces the undercard. I worry about him versus Viloria: I just can't stop watching highlights of the Filipino/Hawaiian/whatever the fvck else he is turning dudes' lights out mid combo; & going back over his fights he seems a lot less left-hook happy than I remember, more potent with the right hand.

Probably staying up for this one.

[davie]

This is an excellent video on the technical skills of the two fighters, I highly recommend checking it out:

http://www.badlefthook.com/2015/10/15/9 ... ado-boxing

I think he's on the money about Golovkin's skills regressing. He looked very scrappy in the first round against Rubio and was defensively irresponsible against both Murray and Monroe - although he clearly had no respect for their power. He was defensively irresponsible in patches against Stevens too. The fights where I was most impressed with GGG were vs Proksa, Ishida and Macklin, which were all a while ago. I'd really like to see him work on and use his boxing skills more - he certainly didn't get a 345-5 amateur record on his punching power.

I often wonder if Golovkin is choosing to be defensively lax because he can.
I suspect Golovkin has no shortage of skills and will see that tonight, he'll be more respectful of Lemieux than previous opponents.

I think he has too much for Lemieux. And Lemieux has a very good punchers chance but not a lot more for me.

[punchoutsb]

Yes, I'm amazed at how many people think this will be a walkover. Lemieux has improved considerably since Rubio.

David is going to shake GGG up. I think GGG will outlast and stop him late, but mark my words Lemieux is a very live dog!

[Badhusker]

People dumb enough to bet on Lemieuxis why it there get rich.

[punchoutsb]

People dumb enough to bet on Lemieuxis why it there get rich.

Bit ironic

[davie]

That said, I see a lesser level Hitman v Hagler scenario with 3G playing the Hagler role and stopping Lemieux in the third in an all action affair.

You don't ask for much, do you?

[davie]

People dumb enough to bet on Lemieuxis why it there get rich.

Bit ironic

First rule of the internet - As soon as you call people stupid, do a spell check.

[Bobbyptsd]

I'll state here again that I think Golovkin will absolutely destroy Lemiuex. I think he's made for him.

I know GGG can only fight who is in front of him, but I don't think this is his best opponent. More importantly though, it's just a style thing. He'll (Lemieux) get brutally stopped, I believe.

I'm not averse to being wrong, as my Atlas-like record at predicting fights shows, and I would be perfectly happy if Lemiuex proved me wrong. I just think he'll come in, try to trade, and get starched when we all realize at about the same time that Lemiuex's power is not the same as Golovkin's power.

[ikorolev]

Lemieux power is about the same as Golovkin's but he telegraphs his punches. He can still land something good behind a jab.

[jezzamundo]

I think their power is quite similar, but GGG has the better chin. That said, I don't think either could take many flush body shots from the other - even light punching Murray made GGG look uncomfotable with body shots.

[Impractical Poster]

I feel Lemueux's power can be overrated. He definitely has pop, but it's his non-stop assault, speed and power that gets people outta there. As for one punch power, I'd say he has no more or less than G. In order to beat G, he will have to be able to bully him. I just don't see it.

G's defense is severely underrated. And I can understand why. Early in his fights with Macklin and Monroe, he displayed sound all around skills. It's after he is comfortable taking what his opponent can give that he slacks on the defense and goes for the kill. He just seems to figure it out quite quickly. Should be a pretty easy night for Golovkin.

[Badhusker]

People dumb enough to bet on Lemieuxis why it there get rich.

Man I hate the auto correct function, and being in a hurry. Did sound dumb, I admit.

GGG will get an easy KO.