AJ vs Whyte-Have the bookies got this one wrong?

[Nightmare Roy]

After the presser yesterday I had a nosey on odds checker. Lots of money seems to have been laid on Whyte but they are still offering great prices on him but AJ is unbettable.

AJ 1/16
Whyte 9/1

Does anyone think they have this one wrong?

[Sklar]

They work the calculators, mate. Expect the odds on Dillian to push further and further out due to people thinking AJ is a sure thing and still lumping money on. The odds ARE wrong in true probability terms but they are right (or very close to it) in bookies' terms.

[MightyWarrior]

Yes there's not many who are going to fancy Whyte's chances with any confidence, as he's pretty much an unknown quantity & beaten no one as a pro, and it would be a massive shock if he upset the AJ bandwagon - so odds reflecting that I guess.

[freddydoesdallas]

If these 2 weren't British then i think we would see the prices a lot closer together so yes, i would say they are wrong.

However, like they always did with Khan, they know that people will just bet on AJ no matter what as they don't understand the sport. Put AJ in against Wladimir tomorrow and the bookies would probably have him as slight favourite as they want to ensure they make a profit rather than recognising who is more likely to win.

edit. Simply, for every one boxing fan who considers the outcome of a match like this and correctly bets, there are 10 blind punters out there who will go with the hype and back him at 1/16. They'll happily take the blind money and the fan and bookie both go home with a tidy profit if it comes in. If the favourite wins, the bookie still wins

[GlobalBox]

Although I think AJ is the real deal and would like him to win I would think that the price of Whyte will drop as the fight nears or certainly on the day itself as many watching the fight will fancy those sort of odds for fivers and tenners and very quickly they will add up. I don't think the bookies are necessarily wrong but this may be one favourite they end up wanting to win.

[bripez]

Yes there's not many who are going to fancy Whyte's chances with any confidence, as he's pretty much an unknown quantity & beaten no one as a pro, and it would be a massive shock if he upset the AJ bandwagon - so odds reflecting that I guess.

This.

The odds don't reflect who the bookie thinks will win, they are largely driven by what money has been placed and they need to balance their exposure.

[CMDY]

Best you can get Joshua is 1.12 on Betfair (that's a bit under 1/8 fractional odds and then minus 5% commission), this has a betting over-round and accordingly implied probability of 89%.
The question is whether AJ's chance of success is 89%? The differences of opinions is what fuels all of the betting industry, as well as most other things in life!

[johnswan1]

Yes there's not many who are going to fancy Whyte's chances with any confidence, as he's pretty much an unknown quantity & beaten no one as a pro, and it would be a massive shock if he upset the AJ bandwagon - so odds reflecting that I guess.

This.

The odds don't reflect who the bookie thinks will win, they are largely driven by what money has been placed and they need to balance their exposure.

Wrong. They won't have balanced books here. They won't be taking bets on AJ as his odds are too short for the man on the street to have a bet and any big players with a bit of cash would be limited to bets of £10,000 or less. They will end up with hardly any money on Joshua and a few small bets on Whyte. The outcome will not matter to them either way as AJ is such an overwhelming favourite that it's not even really considered a betting event, but bookmakers still need to publish prices in order to show they are covering all markets.

[Sklar]

The differences of opinions is what fuels all of the betting industry, as well as most other things in life!

Greed and addiction plays its part too.

[Sklar]

Yes there's not many who are going to fancy Whyte's chances with any confidence, as he's pretty much an unknown quantity & beaten no one as a pro, and it would be a massive shock if he upset the AJ bandwagon - so odds reflecting that I guess.

This.

The odds don't reflect who the bookie thinks will win, they are largely driven by what money has been placed and they need to balance their exposure.

Wrong. They won't have balanced books here. They won't be taking bets on AJ as his odds are too short for the man on the street to have a bet and any big players with a bit of cash would be limited to bets of £10,000 or less. They will end up with hardly any money on Joshua and a few small bets on Whyte. The outcome will not matter to them either way as AJ is such an overwhelming favourite that it's not even really considered a betting event, but bookmakers still need to publish prices in order to show they are covering all markets.

That makes sense. I think you're right and I'm wrong.

[Nightmare Roy]

Yeah you can see charts which are showing betting patterns, no one is backing AJ, as it isn't worth it, I guess they will get some correct round bets but that's about it.

[asdfjkl]

I think it's fair, I would still put my money on AJ.

I think the chances Povetkin loses tonight is bigger as the chance Aj loses that night and you get even less money for Povetkin winning actually ( 1.09) .

[palooka]

There have been 2 big upsets in Russia earlier, with big hitters anything can happen.

[Coco]

No

[Lion-Heart]

Because we haven't seen much of both fighters there's still a lot of questions to be asked, AJ looks quick and Powerful while Whyte looks slower but seems to be more powerful so at them odds I'll definitely being having a nibble.If Whyte can land a flush combo on AJ I think his going to get dropped. There's always an outside chance when a boxer is a big hitter

[moogie101]

After all the hype behind him we saw what happened when David Price finally took a heavy shot to the chin & sadly he still doesn't appear to have recovered from it.

There's no valid argument either way yet as to how AJ will react to a similar shot & I'd argue Whyte is as good any opponent as AJ has faced & in particular the first guy I see going into the ring actually expecting to win. Bookies might have screwed up here, BUT going by what I've seen so far I'd be backing him as well.

[The Insider]

All things considered the bookies are way out IMO. I took Whytr at 10/1 when the market opened. AJ is, and should be a large favorite but the bookies are placing a lot of faith in that largely untested chin and engine. That said I expect Joshua to win but 10/1 odds on Whyte to do the business means it's very little outlay for a potential large reward. I usually have to study and work my tail of to work out multiples for these kind of odds.

[Stuarty]

Even if you don't fancy Whyte it's still worth chucking ten/twenty quid on him if you have some spare cash. Good odds. He's AJs best opponent so far and poses a legitimate threat IMO.

[Nightmare Roy]

All things considered the bookies are way out IMO. I took Whytr at 10/1 when the market opened. AJ is, and should be a large favorite but the bookies are placing a lot of faith in that largely untested chin and engine. That said I expect Joshua to win but 10/1 odds on Whyte to do the business means it's very little outlay for a potential large reward. I usually have to study and work my tail of to work out multiples for these kind of odds.

I'm with you, if they fought 10 fights would AJ win them all? If not there is good value in it.

[Tarkus]

Some of the best betting opportunities in boxing are the moments of truth for young hyped fighters when they get exposed. I was waiting for that to happen to Kudriashov for some time but still missed the chance yesterday.

Joshua train is on its way to be derailed and this might be the moment. Whyte at 9/1 is a great value for what is essentially a 50/50 fight. Hungry, uncompromising, technical, big puncher, Whyte has it and with Jonathan Banks in his corner he should exhibit controlled, intelligent performance.

Don't miss it.

[dominik]

IMO whyte looked pretty ordinary in the fights I have seen. big guy but quite slow and easy to hit. he has some power but I'm not sure his power is elite.

AJ does not have a great defense and can be hit but I think whyte is too sluggish to capitalize.

[Batley18]

These aren't wrong at all, if anything I would say that Whyte's mouth has brought it closer than it should have been, much in the same way that Audley did against Haye. Whyte would have to be 50/1 before I even considered putting a pound on him.

[Batley18]

Some of the best betting opportunities in boxing are the moments of truth for young hyped fighters when they get exposed. I was waiting for that to happen to Kudriashov for some time but still missed the chance yesterday.

Joshua train is on its way to be derailed and this might be the moment. Whyte at 9/1 is a great value for what is essentially a 50/50 fight. Hungry, uncompromising, technical, big puncher, Whyte has it and with Jonathan Banks in his corner he should exhibit controlled, intelligent performance.

Don't miss it.

50/50 fight??? Behave.

[johnswan1]

Whyte at 9/1 is a great value for what is essentially a 50/50 fight.

Even Whyte said himself in the IFL interview that he wasn't stupid and recognised that he is the underdog. He's confident of his ability but he knows he's up against it.

[big lennox]

The bookies have got this spot on. Whyte is a big puncher and would trouble anyone with his power. However, punching power is academic ifd you can't land it. Joshua's jab, balance and timing is such that I don't think Whyte will get close and will likely be stopped.

I've watched their amateur fight and Joshua was very inexperienced then and boxing with his chin sky high. He is a different beast now. I think it is a good fight, because Whyte is a good fighter, but Joshua to me, looks like an exceptional talent.