Sergey Kovalev vs Andre Ward

[Boxerbeetle]

Can't fvcking wait for this now. I'll be buying Now TV for the first time ever, just for this fight

[magwitch]

Anybody know when this fight will take place, roughly?

I got a surprise seeing that Groves is fighting today - a Friday rather than a Sat.

[afcmarshall]

Anybody know when this fight will take place, roughly?

I got a surprise seeing that Groves is fighting today - a Friday rather than a Sat.

My guess would be about 4ish

[samwbr]

Wards strength is going to surprise Kovalev. He won't be able to push him about and I think he comes off second best in the clinch. Might get through on the inside at times but Ward definitely will.
It's a brilliant match up and thank fornicate it's happened.

[magwitch]

Ward looked a absolutely huge at the press conference the last hour. Still think he takes Kovalev to school.

Size won't help him running backwards around the ring all night.

Yeah, why would all that muscle help a fighter who is known to clinch and wrestle lots?

[magwitch]

Yeah I agree with handsofstone, ward will spoil a lot and turn it into a messy fight, but he'll do the sharper cleaner work along the way and win a unanimous decision, leaving kovalev very frustrated.

Pretty much how I've seen it since day one, mate.

Ward just too quick and clever.

Hope I'm wrong though.

I’m no expert but I don’t think Krusher is without speed himself. Wouldn’t have got this far...

[stujones]

I don't like Ward at Light Heavy, I don't see him as a big Super Middle. I actually expect a pretty dominant victory by one of them.

Either - Ward can outbox Kovalev decisively and win a wide UD or Kovalev is just too big and strong for Ward and his power will control the fight (ala Hopkins) and win via wide UD.

At the moment, I am tentatively going for the first option.

[Taansend]

Yeah I agree with handsofstone, ward will spoil a lot and turn it into a messy fight, but he'll do the sharper cleaner work along the way and win a unanimous decision, leaving kovalev very frustrated.

Pretty much how I've seen it since day one, mate.

Ward just too quick and clever.

Hope I'm wrong though.

I’m no expert but I don’t think Krusher is without speed himself. Wouldn’t have got this far...

Is he as fast as Ward?

[Bard of Boxrec]

Ward looked a absolutely huge at the press conference the last hour. Still think he takes Kovalev to school.

Size won't help him running backwards around the ring all night.

Yeah, why would all that muscle help a fighter who is known to clinch and wrestle lots?

I don't think Kovalev is going to let him do his 'work' inside. Kovalev will know what's going on. Ward's plan is obvious, don't stay in front of Kovalev at mid-range, either be on your bike or up close. I don't know how that plan can work for him, but that's his plan. So Sergey is going to use his exquisite timing to catch Ward coming in for the hug. He might not catch him clean in those instances but he's going to make Ward think twice about trying to rough him up on the inside. Just another plan gone down the toilet for Ward, and a waste of muscles I guess.

I was just watching Ward/Brand again, and Max Kellerman talking about how Ward 'needs a Kovalev' to look good, making the Hopkins/Trinidad comparison. I'm tellin ya. A lot of folks are gonna be disappointed if they expect the classic matador scenario. Sergey knows all this, he's a humble guy anyway but I get this feeling he's making sure he comes across extra nice and reserved to stop people trying this 'brash bully vs humble master boxer' angle that everyone loves so much.

When I think about the skillsets of each of these guys I would say Kovalev has more in his arsenal than Ward. Watch the quick right hook on the retreat that he shortens in the blink of an eye to drop Hopkins, the almost imperceptible feint just beforehand, the ramrod, quick jab to body and head, the sledgehammer right, the volume, the way he rips in the quick left hooks up close, the always being in the right position to punch. The savage finishing instincts.

Compare to Ward. Sure, Ward occasionally shows those quick single shots and his defence is rock solid with great feints, head and foot and upper body movement. But his output is really quite poor. I'm watching it now, the working his way in, the working his way in...and his hands just don't go. And if that's all the volume he can manage against Brand, what's he going to do when faced with the power of Kovalev? Where does that volume come from? I do expect a better version of Ward to turn up tomorrow night, but in his last fight there was enough to see evident decline, the feet slightly heavier, the combinations still not there, the overall show just a little less convincing. And then there's the lack of power, which means he has to compensate everywhere else, a nightmare when facing Kovalev.

I wasn't impressed with Ward against Brand the first time, and watching it again I'm less so. The thing is, Brand wasn't even as negative as people made out. He was there to be hit for someone with the supposed talents of Ward, but Ward just wasn't hitting him that much. Doing enough to cruise through the rounds, but you were waiting for him to step it up. He never did.

[TheLeprechaun]

Questions in this fight for me are

1. Who wins rounds if they both fight from the outside.
- For me, Ward has much more variety in terms of pot shots, switching etc. Head movement big for Ward. Kovalev isn't hard to hit. If Kovalev comes on the front foot jabbing like he was vs Hopkins, will Ward elect to meet him in the centre and counter and try to work his way inside or will he be content to fight off the backfoot a la Chilemba but be more elusive and aggressive than Chilemba, who was in survival mode all night. Another problem for Kovalev is that we know he is going to do exactly what he did vs Hopkins. He fights the same way every time. It's much more difficult to predict how Ward will fight and it also gives Ward a lot to work on in camp. He'll be coming in with traps.


2. Can Ward take the fight to the inside?
I haven't seen Kovalev ever clinch or hold until the ref breaks them up. If Ward can manouver his way inside, and we know he's got every trick in the book to do this, he will maul Kovalev like he has done to so many opponents. He looks physically bigger than Kovalev and is used to those mauling fights. That inside strength game is something he has been doing for a couple of decades. He will maul Kovalev if he can take the fight inside. How will Kovalev react to being bullied and mauled? Froch and Kessler said that it was extremely frustrating.


3. Can Ward take Kovalevs punches?
Kovalev can take clean shots from Ward, up to a certain point of course - nobody can take clean punches to the face all night. How will Ward react WHEN Kovalev lands because we have to expect Kovalev to land something at some point. If Ward gets hurt at any point, he is in extreme trouble to say the least.

[Bard of Boxrec]

Questions in this fight for me are
Can Ward take Kovalevs punches?
Kovalev can take clean shots from Ward, up to a certain point of course - nobody can take clean punches to the face all night. How will Ward react WHEN Kovalev lands because we have to expect Kovalev to land something at some point

If you go in with kovalev you get hurt. And there's enough to suggest ward can't deal with it. Ok, his fights with Kenny kost and Boone were a long time ago. But they, and the many times ward has done that 'Obama not bad' face when hit, suggest he can easily be made uncomfortable by punches. I also think back to how he looked in the 11th and 12th vs Froch when he was getting a little roughed up and looking at the clock constantly.

Furthermore he got marked up a fair bit vs Froch too, which isn't insignificant. If kov can cut ward or cause a swelling that's just something else for Andre to worry about.

Now I'm watching ward/froch again. That ward is absolute night and day from this one, and I'm stunned that some people can't see it. He looked so much sharper back then.

Is he as fast as Ward?

If you measured the speed at which a variety of punches found their target from each of them, I would be pretty confident that there isn't much in it. Speed will not be a factor in this fight.

[mickey1975]

Questions in this fight for me are
Can Ward take Kovalevs punches?
Kovalev can take clean shots from Ward, up to a certain point of course - nobody can take clean punches to the face all night. How will Ward react WHEN Kovalev lands because we have to expect Kovalev to land something at some point

If you go in with kovalev you get hurt. And there's enough to suggest ward can't deal with it. Ok, his fights with Kenny kost and Boone were a long time ago. But they, and the many times ward has done that 'Obama not bad' face when hit, suggest he can easily be made uncomfortable by punches. I also think back to how he looked in the 11th and 12th vs Froch when he was getting a little roughed up and looking at the clock constantly.

Furthermore he got marked up a fair bit vs Froch too, which isn't insignificant. If kov can cut ward or cause a swelling that's just something else for Andre to worry about.
Now I'm watching ward/froch again. That ward is absolute night and day from this one, and I'm stunned that some people can't see it. He looked so much sharper back then.

Is he as fast as Ward?

If you measured the speed at which a variety of punches found their target from each of them, I would be pretty confident that there isn't much in it. Speed will not be a factor in this fight.

No excuses if Kov loses, whatever happens?

[Bard of Boxrec]

No excuses if Kov loses, whatever happens?

Of course not.

[lefty]

Size won't help him running backwards around the ring all night.

Yeah, why would all that muscle help a fighter who is known to clinch and wrestle lots?

I don't think Kovalev is going to let him do his 'work' inside. Kovalev will know what's going on. Ward's plan is obvious, don't stay in front of Kovalev at mid-range, either be on your bike or up close. I don't know how that plan can work for him, but that's his plan. So Sergey is going to use his exquisite timing to catch Ward coming in for the hug. He might not catch him clean in those instances but he's going to make Ward think twice about trying to rough him up on the inside. Just another plan gone down the toilet for Ward, and a waste of muscles I guess.

I was just watching Ward/Brand again, and Max Kellerman talking about how Ward 'needs a Kovalev' to look good, making the Hopkins/Trinidad comparison. I'm tellin ya. A lot of folks are gonna be disappointed if they expect the classic matador scenario. Sergey knows all this, he's a humble guy anyway but I get this feeling he's making sure he comes across extra nice and reserved to stop people trying this 'brash bully vs humble master boxer' angle that everyone loves so much.

When I think about the skillsets of each of these guys I would say Kovalev has more in his arsenal than Ward. Watch the quick right hook on the retreat that he shortens in the blink of an eye to drop Hopkins, the almost imperceptible feint just beforehand, the ramrod, quick jab to body and head, the sledgehammer right, the volume, the way he rips in the quick left hooks up close, the always being in the right position to punch. The savage finishing instincts.

Compare to Ward. Sure, Ward occasionally shows those quick single shots and his defence is rock solid with great feints, head and foot and upper body movement. But his output is really quite poor. I'm watching it now, the working his way in, the working his way in...and his hands just don't go. And if that's all the volume he can manage against Brand, what's he going to do when faced with the power of Kovalev? Where does that volume come from? I do expect a better version of Ward to turn up tomorrow night, but in his last fight there was enough to see evident decline, the feet slightly heavier, the combinations still not there, the overall show just a little less convincing. And then there's the lack of power, which means he has to compensate everywhere else, a nightmare when facing Kovalev.

I wasn't impressed with Ward against Brand the first time, and watching it again I'm less so. The thing is, Brand wasn't even as negative as people made out. He was there to be hit for someone with the supposed talents of Ward, but Ward just wasn't hitting him that much. Doing enough to cruise through the rounds, but you were waiting for him to step it up. He never did.

Just because he'll be aware what's going on; it doesn't mean he'll be able to stop it.

[Bard of Boxrec]

I see Johnny Nelson has written the classic cookie-cutter article talking about 'supreme skills vs brute force' and Kovalev 'rushing in and walking onto one'. Like Sergey has EVER shown signs he is about to do that at any point in his career.

[lefty]

I'm pretty confident what I predicted earlier in this thread (along with a few others) is going to occur. Ward will move a lot causing Kovalev to hit air frequently and in turn be constantly trying to reset and then Ward will get off with single shots whether they're jabs to the body of lead right hands like CP mentioned. He'll then immediately clinch- leaving Kovalev unable to get off with any counters. He'll then get off with a few shots on the inside before Kovalev can respond and then get the fornicate out of range. Rinse and repeat.

Kovalev will get more and more frustrated as the fight goes on which will lead to him getting dirty either by sticking his forearm in Ward's face or hitting him around the back of the head leading to the ref either issuing warnings or deducting points. The fight will follow a pattern like this. Kovalev might even hurt Ward at some point in the fight but Ward will tie up and recover. This will go on for the duration of the 12 rounds leading to a very frustrated and angry Kovalev and Ward winning an ugly, visually unappealing unanimous decision.

[crusader]

When did you become so confident? I thought you recently posted that you were going back and forth.....

[lefty]

I was but then I watched more fights and weighed it up more.

[Bard of Boxrec]

Questions in this fight for me are

1. Who wins rounds if they both fight from the outside.
- For me, Ward has much more variety in terms of pot shots, switching etc. Head movement big for Ward. Kovalev isn't hard to hit. If Kovalev comes on the front foot jabbing like he was vs Hopkins, will Ward elect to meet him in the centre and counter and try to work his way inside or will he be content to fight off the backfoot a la Chilemba but be more elusive and aggressive than Chilemba, who was in survival mode all night. Another problem for Kovalev is that we know he is going to do exactly what he did vs Hopkins. He fights the same way every time. It's much more difficult to predict how Ward will fight and it also gives Ward a lot to work on in camp. He'll be coming in with traps.

The problem with Ward's outside fight is he is only going to be throwing single shots. He didn't throw combinations against Brand so how is he going to do it vs Kovalev? While we know that, however much Kovalev's volume will be reduced by Ward's tricks, he will still be throwing more, and his accuracy is so good to boot. Hitting arms, shoulders, whatever, Ward will feel all of it. Ward can wait and wait for Kovalev to 'get frustrated and walk onto one', like Hopkins was hoping for, but it won't happen.

[lefty]

I don't even think the Hopkins fight is a good gauge of how this fight will play out. One because Hopkins output was incredibly low; partly because of his age and inability to throw an excessive amount of punches at the age he's at now and secondly- Hopkins didn't tie up a whole lot in that fight except for when he was in dire trouble and absolutely had to.

[lefty]

I don't think Ward is going to win as such but rather not lose if that makes sense. It's not going to be a win where you think what a masterful boxing display but rather he just neutralises Kovalev's own game and basically pot shots his way to victory.

A lot of people will be complaining about the nature of the win I imagine. It might even be a case of Kovalev deserves the victory based on him being the one constantly looking to engage versus Ward stinking the joint out.

[lefty]

Ward needs to be careful when he throws that jab to the body that he likes to throw however. When he throws that he tends to dip low. If Kovalev throws a jab to the body at the same time he could dip into Kovalev's jab and it's a heavy jab as we all know.

[Counter-puncher]

When did you become so confident? I thought you recently posted that you were going back and forth.....

I'm still flipflopping if it makes you feel any better

[Counter-puncher]

Ward needs to be careful when he throws that jab to the body that he likes to throw however. When he throws that he tends to dip low. If Kovalev throws a jab to the body at the same time he could dip into Kovalev's jab and it's a heavy jab as we all know.

like that good video analysis shows, though, he's very smart at positioning his head before throwing it, and moving his feet and body to exit from it.

[lefty]

Ward needs to be careful when he throws that jab to the body that he likes to throw however. When he throws that he tends to dip low. If Kovalev throws a jab to the body at the same time he could dip into Kovalev's jab and it's a heavy jab as we all know.

like that good video analysis shows, though, he's very smart at positioning his head before throwing it, and moving his feet and body to exit from it.

True! Kovalev is very accurate though when he throws it; which makes me wonder if he could dip into the punch and take it on the chin. It's going to be interesting how Ward copes with Kovalev's power none the less!

I can't remember where I saw it now but somebody said they could possibly see the fight playing out like Crawford-Postol which I can kind of see what they're getting at. That said- I think Kovalev cuts the rings off a lot better than Postol. Postol isn't really a fighter that is the aggressor most of the time unlike Kovalev.

I'm confident in my pick and how the fight will likely play out but I wouldn't be hugely shocked if Kovalev won either. So there's still that element of doubt somewhat which is what makes fights worth watching.