Betting thread

[ShadrachSimmo]

Firstly - I was clearly joshing, to get so upset at a forum post from a stranger also shows that BobbyGunn doesn't have the temperament for betting - you need a cool head, not be an angry hot head who throws their ticket on the floor.

Secondly - 1 or 2 good tips out of ten are no use to anyone. You need consistency and to make profit over the year. I lose more bets than I win in terms of raw number of bets, but I largely Make a profit over the year, because I bet on longer as value odds and accumulators (parlays for you Mr Gunn.) I am prepared to bet that if I put together all BobbyGunn's bets to date, the balance would be significantly negative. In other words poor choices.

Thirdly - the cardinal rule for betting is: bet on the value odds, not what you think will happen. Bookies generally have a 13-15% spread between 2 probabilities. This is the house advantage and why all bookies seem to stay in business. So if we bet intelligently, we bet on outcomes where we feel a bookie has mispriced an outcome. So eg while Kit lost his bet due to his man getting chinned, it was a great bet to take as 5-1 provided value in what ended up being a 6-4 price before the fight. His man got chinned and that's boxing. But it was a decent bet and if he cashed before the first out he would've made money.

Any questions?

What would win a fight between a polar bear and a saltwater crocodile?

Please reread my post... it all depends on the odds. What prices you giving me? PS where does the fight take place? Who has home advantage?

The fight takes place on Marshland. I'm edging towards the polar bear slightly odds on.

[boxingknockout]

What would win a fight between a polar bear and a saltwater crocodile?

Please reread my post... it all depends on the odds. What prices you giving me? PS where does the fight take place? Who has home advantage?

The fight takes place on Marshland. I'm edging towards the polar bear slightly odds on.

Hmmm not sure. Marshland is the croc's territory. His low centre of gravity coupled with the polar bear''s lack of grip, loss of home advantage and the croc's bigger mouth make me lean the latter's way.

But it all depends on the value of the odds

What does JimGunn have it? +210 to the polar bear???

[bruthead]

Firstly - I was clearly joshing, to get so upset at a forum post from a stranger also shows that BobbyGunn doesn't have the temperament for betting - you need a cool head, not be an angry hot head who throws their ticket on the floor.

Well, it wasn't clear joshing given multiple people didn't think it was. And I'm not sure if it is even possible to josh with 'a stranger' who you haven't interacted with and only know via the internet.

This is a really good betting thread with a strong level of discussion and tips and I can't remember it ever being unfriendly until your post so well done.

[ShadrachSimmo]

Please reread my post... it all depends on the odds. What prices you giving me? PS where does the fight take place? Who has home advantage?

The fight takes place on Marshland. I'm edging towards the polar bear slightly odds on.

Hmmm not sure. Marshland is the croc's territory. His low centre of gravity coupled with the polar bear''s lack of grip, loss of home advantage and the croc's bigger mouth make me lean the latter's way.

But it all depends on the value of the odds

What does JimGunn have it? +210 to the polar bear???

The polar bears a maritime animal though he's just as at home in the water. I figure marshland was relatively neutral but maybe not so much now I think about it? Maybe go 10/11 polar bear 1/1 croc

[Andrew]

anyway....

Paddy power got 5 fights up from three cards in japan on NYE. anyone having a nibble? theres no method of victory up yet though

Moises Fuentes v Kosei Tanaka
Jonathan Guzman v Yukinori Nguni
Kazoo Ioka v Yutthana Kaensa
Jezreel Corrales v Takashi Uchiyama
Ryoichi Taguchi v Carlos Canizales

I don't bet but I like checking odds out of interest.

Corrales is 11/8 v Uchiyama you've simply got to put money on that IMO.

[littlepug]

The fight takes place on Marshland. I'm edging towards the polar bear slightly odds on.

Hmmm not sure. Marshland is the croc's territory. His low centre of gravity coupled with the polar bear''s lack of grip, loss of home advantage and the croc's bigger mouth make me lean the latter's way.

But it all depends on the value of the odds

What does JimGunn have it? +210 to the polar bear???

The polar bears a maritime animal though he's just as at home in the water. I figure marshland was relatively neutral but maybe not so much now I think about it? Maybe go 10/11 polar bear 1/1 croc

fights off !! polar bear came in overweight and the croc failed the drug test !!!

[ShadrachSimmo]

Hmmm not sure. Marshland is the croc's territory. His low centre of gravity coupled with the polar bear''s lack of grip, loss of home advantage and the croc's bigger mouth make me lean the latter's way.

But it all depends on the value of the odds

What does JimGunn have it? +210 to the polar bear???

The polar bears a maritime animal though he's just as at home in the water. I figure marshland was relatively neutral but maybe not so much now I think about it? Maybe go 10/11 polar bear 1/1 croc

fights off !! polar bear came in overweight and the croc failed the drug test !!!

Bloody Russian crocs they fcuk things up for everyone.

[boxingknockout]

Hmmm not sure. Marshland is the croc's territory. His low centre of gravity coupled with the polar bear''s lack of grip, loss of home advantage and the croc's bigger mouth make me lean the latter's way.

But it all depends on the value of the odds

What does JimGunn have it? +210 to the polar bear???

The polar bears a maritime animal though he's just as at home in the water. I figure marshland was relatively neutral but maybe not so much now I think about it? Maybe go 10/11 polar bear 1/1 croc

fights off !! polar bear came in overweight and the croc failed the drug test !!!

[Bennyblanco]

anyway....

Paddy power got 5 fights up from three cards in japan on NYE. anyone having a nibble? theres no method of victory up yet though

Moises Fuentes v Kosei Tanaka
Jonathan Guzman v Yukinori Nguni
Kazoo Ioka v Yutthana Kaensa
Jezreel Corrales v Takashi Uchiyama
Ryoichi Taguchi v Carlos Canizales

I don't bet but I like checking odds out of interest.

Corrales is 11/8 v Uchiyama you've simply got to put money on that IMO.

yeah he's already beaten him once hasn't he?

[Andrew]

anyway....

Paddy power got 5 fights up from three cards in japan on NYE. anyone having a nibble? theres no method of victory up yet though

Moises Fuentes v Kosei Tanaka
Jonathan Guzman v Yukinori Nguni
Kazoo Ioka v Yutthana Kaensa
Jezreel Corrales v Takashi Uchiyama
Ryoichi Taguchi v Carlos Canizales

I don't bet but I like checking odds out of interest.

Corrales is 11/8 v Uchiyama you've simply got to put money on that IMO.

yeah he's already beaten him once hasn't he?

Yeah Corrales stopped him in two rounds. Uchiyama is 36 and has had an easy run recently as well.

That last fight is all I have seen of Corrales but he doesn't look like a flash in the pan. I think he is the real deal and reckon he will stop him again.

[The Insider]

Haye stoppage rounds 1-6 at 5/6 at PP seems a crazy price to me. Can't see it staying at that for much longer.

[littlepug]

Haye stoppage rounds 1-6 at 5/6 at PP seems a crazy price to me. Can't see it staying at that for much longer.

5-2 for rounds 1-3 is very tempting

[SteveDow]

Haye stoppage rounds 1-6 at 5/6 at PP seems a crazy price to me. Can't see it staying at that for much longer.

That is massive. Haye is certain to want to make a statement here. He doesn't play around in fights like this and that looks utterly huge to me.

[freddydoesdallas]

Haye stoppage rounds 1-6 at 5/6 at PP seems a crazy price to me. Can't see it staying at that for much longer.

That is massive. Haye is certain to want to make a statement here. He doesn't play around in fights like this and that looks utterly huge to me.

I've been piling into the 11/4 & 5/2 on rounds 1-3 and i'm thinking of now piling into this bet as well as a safety net too

[SteveDow]

Haye stoppage rounds 1-6 at 5/6 at PP seems a crazy price to me. Can't see it staying at that for much longer.

That is massive. Haye is certain to want to make a statement here. He doesn't play around in fights like this and that looks utterly huge to me.

I've been piling into the 11/4 & 5/2 on rounds 1-3 and i'm thinking of now piling into this bet as well as a safety net too

I think I'll be having a big amount on 1-6 and a smaller amount on 1-3.

[GlobalBox]

On there own prices its around an 8/15 shot but some firms work out around a 2/7 shot for the first six rounds so it is clearly value, I have stuck it in several trebles and doubles and things to bump those bets up, it looks a no brainer really although I sitll have in my mind Tony saying he would stand and trade with Adonis a few years back and then when he felt the power calling that one off. He could try and stay away I guess but at those prices I'm willing to take the shot

[freddydoesdallas]

On there own prices its around an 8/15 shot but some firms work out around a 2/7 shot for the first six rounds so it is clearly value, I have stuck it in several trebles and doubles and things to bump those bets up, it looks a no brainer really although I sitll have in my mind Tony saying he would stand and trade with Adonis a few years back and then when he felt the power calling that one off. He could try and stay away I guess but at those prices I'm willing to take the shot

He's not going to be as mobile at this weight if he comes in around 210. I just don't particularly think he's got the tools to cope with Haye. If Haye could blast out Chisora in 5 and really hurt him then even below his best, Haye will demoslish a blown up Bellew

[Bennyblanco]

I don't bet but I like checking odds out of interest.

Corrales is 11/8 v Uchiyama you've simply got to put money on that IMO.

yeah he's already beaten him once hasn't he?

Yeah Corrales stopped him in two rounds. Uchiyama is 36 and has had an easy run recently as well.

That last fight is all I have seen of Corrales but he doesn't look like a flash in the pan. I think he is the real deal and reckon he will stop him again.

Gone to evens now

[JimGunn]

Thanks to the people that said positive and supportive things recently. This is a great forum, and there really aren't many places online to talk boxing wagering specifically.

Small play on the under in this LHW contest in Montreal this Friday. The heavy handed Beterbiev is fighting in his adopted hometown while his Paraguayan opponent, also a knockout artist, is traveling a long way for this contest. Prieto has never been stopped as a pro, but Beterbiev has finished nine out of ten of fights before the middle of the seventh round except for one that went over by only eight seconds. Beterbiev's promoter is looking to get him into a title eliminator in 2017, so an impressive stoppage would help his case.

Artur Beterbiev/Isidro Ranoni Prieto Under 6½ (-125) $50.00 for $40.00

[The Insider]

Haye stoppage rounds 1-6 at 5/6 at PP seems a crazy price to me. Can't see it staying at that for much longer.

As predicted now 4/6.

[boxingknockout]

Haye stoppage rounds 1-6 at 5/6 at PP seems a crazy price to me. Can't see it staying at that for much longer.

As predicted now 4/6.

You can still get 1.8 at skybet

[ThereByTheGrace]

Haye stoppage rounds 1-6 at 5/6 at PP seems a crazy price to me. Can't see it staying at that for much longer.

As predicted now 4/6.

You can still get 1.8 at skybet

Still have my doubts the fight will be in the ring ! Typical haye!

[boxingknockout]

As predicted now 4/6.

You can still get 1.8 at skybet

Still have my doubts the fight will be in the ring ! Typical haye!

Good point but then you get te money back. And I can't believe Haye would pull out against a guy like Bellew who he'll bang out

[Bennyblanco]

Thanks to the people that said positive and supportive things recently. This is a great forum, and there really aren't many places online to talk boxing wagering specifically.

Small play on the under in this LHW contest in Montreal this Friday. The heavy handed Beterbiev is fighting in his adopted hometown while his Paraguayan opponent, also a knockout artist, is traveling a long way for this contest. Prieto has never been stopped as a pro, but Beterbiev has finished nine out of ten of fights before the middle of the seventh round except for one that went over by only eight seconds. Beterbiev's promoter is looking to get him into a title eliminator in 2017, so an impressive stoppage would help his case.

Artur Beterbiev/Isidro Ranoni Prieto Under 6½ (-125) $50.00 for $40.00

Paddy power offering 5/1 for a beterbiev decision. Considering prieto hasn't been stopped before I don't think that's bad

[crusader]

Never stopped, although only fought one notable opponent, and Alvarez chose to box and didn't really go for the kill. Prieto seems like a straight ahead slugging type who is going to be there for Beterbiev to hit, and it's going to be a tough, tough task for him to last the distance IMO.