Stuffs wrote:I think Santa Cruz gets a home decision against Frampton. I scored the first one a draw. Can smell home cooking with Badou Jack too, though it depends which Degale turns up. If he takes his customary three to four rounds off I think he could get caught and make it straight forward.
My losing acca will be @ a snip over 20/1 on PP (might be better elsewhere)
Vargas, LSC, Badou, Arnfield, Pedraza all to win.
There wont be any "home cooking" with Degale. Actually Degale will have the judges in that fight. Al Haymon will see to that. Floyd Mayweather doesn't hold a candle to Haymon in that regard.
I think it'll be a close fight, but the score cards will be wide for a Degale win something like 116-112 in Degales Favor.
James DeGale by Decision or Technical Decision @ 8/11 for me. Although the odds are terrible so I probably will just be watching instead.
Jack by decision at 4/1 is a great value bet. It's a close fight but I don't think Jack has any chance of stopping DeGale, so you're essentially getting odds of 4/1 for Jack to win a fight in which I'd make him a 40/60 underdog.
ElJefe wrote:Jack by decision at 4/1 is a great value bet. It's a close fight but I don't think Jack has any chance of stopping DeGale, so you're essentially getting odds of 4/1 for Jack to win a fight in which I'd make him a 40/60 underdog.
You're right it is a 60/40 but I think Degale might be juicing for this fight, he seems to have refused Vada testing and is looking to be in the best shape I've seen of him that could be the reason for the skewed odds. Factoring this in putting your money on Degale seems to be the best bet you could make even with these odds.
Stuffs wrote:I think Santa Cruz gets a home decision against Frampton. I scored the first one a draw. Can smell home cooking with Badou Jack too, though it depends which Degale turns up. If he takes his customary three to four rounds off I think he could get caught and make it straight forward.
My losing acca will be @ a snip over 20/1 on PP (might be better elsewhere)
Vargas, LSC, Badou, Arnfield, Pedraza all to win.
There wont be any "home cooking" with Degale. Actually Degale will have the judges in that fight. Al Haymon will see to that. Floyd Mayweather doesn't hold a candle to Haymon in that regard.
I think it'll be a close fight, but the score cards will be wide for a Degale win something like 116-112 in Degales Favor.
James DeGale by Decision or Technical Decision @ 8/11 for me. Although the odds are terrible so I probably will just be watching instead.
Both are Haymon fighters mate, Mayweather promotions is just one of the fronts Haymon uses to promote his events.
ElJefe wrote:Jack by decision at 4/1 is a great value bet. It's a close fight but I don't think Jack has any chance of stopping DeGale, so you're essentially getting odds of 4/1 for Jack to win a fight in which I'd make him a 40/60 underdog.
You're right it is a 60/40 but I think Degale might be juicing for this fight, he seems to have refused Vada testing and is looking to be in the best shape I've seen of him that could be the reason for the skewed odds. Factoring this in putting your money on Degale seems to be the best bet you could make even with these odds.
Wasn't aware of the VADA stuff. He'll be getting randomly tested throughout training while he's at home though I'd assume.
After looking into Yuri Foreman's recent weak opposition and reading Erislandy Lara's prediction for a fast KO to try to get bigger fights soon, plus recalling Lara stopping Jan Zaveck in three rounds last time he fought in Hialeah, I'm playing an under prop at plus money on this showcase fight on Spike TV this Friday night.
JimGunn wrote:After looking into Yuri Foreman's recent weak opposition and reading Erislandy Lara's prediction for a fast KO to try to get bigger fights soon, plus recalling Lara stopping Jan Zaveck in three rounds last time he fought in Hialeah, I'm playing an under prop at plus money on this showcase fight on Spike TV this Friday night.
JimGunn wrote:After looking into Yuri Foreman's recent weak opposition and reading Erislandy Lara's prediction for a fast KO to try to get bigger fights soon, plus recalling Lara stopping Jan Zaveck in three rounds last time he fought in Hialeah, I'm playing an under prop at plus money on this showcase fight on Spike TV this Friday night.
Lara is a dangerous guy to play the under with he is so cautious which makes hard to predict. I think dirrell vs nesampati is better for the under.
Most of my betting friends like decision plays, understandably so in boxing where a lot of bouts, even 10 or 12 round bouts, go to the cards. But I've done well with under plays at good odds in bouts where both fighters are not elite competition, selectively of course. The two tv bouts Friday night I consider squash matches, or showcase fights if you want to use a nicer term. I do like the under in the Dirrell/Nemesapati bout too. I'm taking Lara at his word that he wants to finish the fight spectacularly in this case, plus the other factors that I mentioned earlier. Foreman took two years off to study to become a rabbi and he struggled with opponents with near 50/50 records in his recent fights. I get the impression he's showing up for a paycheck in this one. http://www.BS.com/erislandy-la ... ly--112443
I think the Jack/DeGale fight is no more than 60/40 either way, so I like the value on Jack at this price. I believe it also has the potential to be close on the judges' scorecards, possibly ending in a split or majority decision. So I bet those props and a few bucks on draws as well. My full action for this coming weekend, every play at + money.
Anthony Dirrell/Norbert Nemesapati doesn't start round 6 (+120) ~$45.40 for ~$54.48
Gervonta Davis (+130) vs Jose Pedraza $100.00 for $130.00
Gervonta Davis will win by KO (+254) vs Jose Pedraza ~$26.33 for ~$66.88
Badou Jack (+235) vs James DeGale $125.00 for $293.75
Badou Jack wins by majority decision (+1450) $8.00 for $116.00
Badou Jack wins by split decision (+825) $12.00 for $99.00
James DeGale wins by split decision (+750) $12.00 for $90.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale majority decision draw (+6000) $8.00 for $480.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale split decision draw (+2600) $2.00 for $52.00
JimGunn wrote:I think the Jack/DeGale fight is no more than 60/40 either way, so I like the value on Jack at this price. I believe it also has the potential to be close on the judges' scorecards, possibly ending in a split or majority decision. So I bet those props and a few bucks on draws as well. My full action for this coming weekend, every play at + money.
Anthony Dirrell/Norbert Nemesapati doesn't start round 6 (+120) ~$45.40 for ~$54.48
Gervonta Davis (+130) vs Jose Pedraza $100.00 for $130.00
Gervonta Davis will win by KO (+254) vs Jose Pedraza ~$26.33 for ~$66.88
Badou Jack (+235) vs James DeGale $125.00 for $293.75
Badou Jack wins by majority decision (+1450) $8.00 for $116.00
Badou Jack wins by split decision (+825) $12.00 for $99.00
James DeGale wins by split decision (+750) $12.00 for $90.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale majority decision draw (+6000) $8.00 for $480.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale split decision draw (+2600) $2.00 for $52.00
Sounds like a good play if the two underdog pull through which they have do have a shot of doing.
Odds on pedraza drifting steadily, lot of people tipping Davis. He looks great on his highlight reel but he's fought no one, best win is Sanchez who beat beltran who lost close 2 roman Martinez earlier in his career. Pedraza looked good against smith.. Am I missing something.. Pedraza looks value to me.?
Limmo wrote:Odds on pedraza drifting steadily, lot of people tipping Davis. He looks great on his highlight reel but he's fought no one, best win is Sanchez who beat beltran who lost close 2 roman Martinez earlier in his career. Pedraza looked good against smith.. Am I missing something.. Pedraza looks value to me.?
Imo people are buying into the hype. I'm glad the odds are shortening but worried because does it mean the fix is in? I got pedraza every day of the week, Davis has fought no one, his got poor fundementals and relies only on his physical talents and at the top level you need more. I agree he is quick, powerful and flashy but I think pedraza will take him to deep waters and he will gas.
Stuffs wrote:I think Santa Cruz gets a home decision against Frampton. I scored the first one a draw. Can smell home cooking with Badou Jack too, though it depends which Degale turns up. If he takes his customary three to four rounds off I think he could get caught and make it straight forward.
My losing acca will be @ a snip over 20/1 on PP (might be better elsewhere)
Vargas, LSC, Badou, Arnfield, Pedraza all to win.
I don't know how anyone can give santa Cruz any of the first 5 rounds and I'd say anyone giving him any of those rounds should reconsider how to judge a fight. Therefore you'd have to be scoring 6 of the last 7 to Santa Cruz to make it a draw.
Limmo wrote:Odds on pedraza drifting steadily, lot of people tipping Davis. He looks great on his highlight reel but he's fought no one, best win is Sanchez who beat beltran who lost close 2 roman Martinez earlier in his career. Pedraza looked good against smith.. Am I missing something.. Pedraza looks value to me.?
Steven "the second coming of John Ruiz" Smith isn't exactly a top level yardstick.
There's a little gem in the beginning of Feb, Sammy Vasquez vs Collazo, Vasquez is a good fighther well rounded his only loss coming recently to Felix Diaz whose career Is on a resurgence. Collazo has been out the ring for two years so not only has he aged but he's been inactive.
At 4/11 and Spilka at 8/11 those are some good odds.
Stuffs wrote:I think Santa Cruz gets a home decision against Frampton. I scored the first one a draw. Can smell home cooking with Badou Jack too, though it depends which Degale turns up. If he takes his customary three to four rounds off I think he could get caught and make it straight forward.
My losing acca will be @ a snip over 20/1 on PP (might be better elsewhere)
Vargas, LSC, Badou, Arnfield, Pedraza all to win.
I don't know how anyone can give santa Cruz any of the first 5 rounds and I'd say anyone giving him any of those rounds should reconsider how to judge a fight. Therefore you'd have to be scoring 6 of the last 7 to Santa Cruz to make it a draw.
I can't recall what my round by round was and haven't watched it since it happened,
JimGunn wrote:I think the Jack/DeGale fight is no more than 60/40 either way, so I like the value on Jack at this price. I believe it also has the potential to be close on the judges' scorecards, possibly ending in a split or majority decision. So I bet those props and a few bucks on draws as well. My full action for this coming weekend, every play at + money.
Anthony Dirrell/Norbert Nemesapati doesn't start round 6 (+120) ~$45.40 for ~$54.48
Gervonta Davis (+130) vs Jose Pedraza $100.00 for $130.00
Gervonta Davis will win by KO (+254) vs Jose Pedraza ~$26.33 for ~$66.88
Badou Jack (+235) vs James DeGale $125.00 for $293.75
Badou Jack wins by majority decision (+1450) $8.00 for $116.00
Badou Jack wins by split decision (+825) $12.00 for $99.00
James DeGale wins by split decision (+750) $12.00 for $90.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale majority decision draw (+6000) $8.00 for $480.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale split decision draw (+2600) $2.00 for $52.00
JimGunn wrote:I think the Jack/DeGale fight is no more than 60/40 either way, so I like the value on Jack at this price. I believe it also has the potential to be close on the judges' scorecards, possibly ending in a split or majority decision. So I bet those props and a few bucks on draws as well. My full action for this coming weekend, every play at + money.
Anthony Dirrell/Norbert Nemesapati doesn't start round 6 (+120) ~$45.40 for ~$54.48
Gervonta Davis (+130) vs Jose Pedraza $100.00 for $130.00
Gervonta Davis will win by KO (+254) vs Jose Pedraza ~$26.33 for ~$66.88
Badou Jack (+235) vs James DeGale $125.00 for $293.75
Badou Jack wins by majority decision (+1450) $8.00 for $116.00
Badou Jack wins by split decision (+825) $12.00 for $99.00
James DeGale wins by split decision (+750) $12.00 for $90.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale majority decision draw (+6000) $8.00 for $480.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale split decision draw (+2600) $2.00 for $52.00
Sorry, is there any result you're not betting on?
I passed on "boxingknucklehead stops trolling and adds a substantive post to the discussion or posts bets of his own" with the line at +5000. Just didn't see value in such an unlikely outcome even at that price.
Taken 5s for Degale inside the distance. Just feel that is a little big, I think he wins the fight and he does look in great shape and hopefully the engine is a bit better, Jack's stoppage against Edwards may well have been a fluke but as 5s it seems a bit of value to see if Degale can replicate that.
