JimGunn wrote:I bought out of the under in the GGG/Jacobs bout, as I think GGG will take Jacobs seriously and it will last a while like the Lemieux bout. Hoping for the upset at big odds, but a late stoppage by GGG is my hedge now. On several underdogs in the other bouts Friday and Saturday.
Al Rivera (+1050) vs Aik Shakhnazaryan ~$25.00 for ~$262.50
Alan Higgins/Craig Richards fight goes the distance (+125) ~$50.00 for ~$62.50
Amir Mansour (-115) vs Travis Kauffman $115.00 for $100.00
David Grayton (+326) vs Kermit Cintron ~$62.50 for ~$203.75
Wisaksil Wangek (+1400) vs Roman Gonzalez $25.00 for $350.00
Daniel Jacobs (+660) vs Gennady Golovkin $50.00 for $330.00
Daniel Jacobs (+550) vs Gennady Golovkin $50.00 for $275.00
Daniel Jacobs wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+1169) $25.00 for $292.25
Daniel Jacobs wins by 12 round decision (+2650) $50.00 for $1,325.00
Daniel Jacobs/Gennady Golovkin Over 7½ (+135) $50.00 for $67.50
Gennady Golovkin wins in round 7-9 (+319) $25.00 for $79.75
Gennady Golovkin wins in round 7-12 (+250) ~$26.25 for ~$65.63
Can I ask why you are betting on GGG at all? You're $225 deep on DJ and your GGG bets don't anywhere near cover that.
I have $175 specifically on Jacobs, not $225. If GGG stops him late rather than early I could actually still make money or lose only a small amount depending on what round it ends after the middle of the 8th. Remember my bets always state the profit not the return. Of course if GGG stops him early I will lose it all. Essentially I'm betting on the underdog at huge odds and also partially insuring myself against what I consider to be the most likely way the dog loses to limit my potential losses. Not unlike when I bet Bellew's moneyline as big dog recently where almost no one gave him a chance and in that case I hedged with what I considered his most likely way to lose to Haye in rounds 1, 2 & 3 which had nice + numbers attached to them.
With gambling we're working with percentage chances of things happening. Just because I bet a dog doesn't mean I think he's the better fighter or actually more likely to win. I'm backing a number not just a side. I totally appreciate that some people have a different style and would rather just throw a few bucks strictly on one side or only make some small multi-leg parlays. I usually only pick one side but I've found this works for me with boxing and MMA wagering on certain fights anyway.
I'm very familiar with Hedging and covering bets etc but
You have a very narrow corridor of probability in rounds 7-9 to make profit on the more likely GGG win. The Jacobs points is a crazy price so adversely you could put a tiny bit on that and lump on a combo/perm of a GGG win. It's all subjective and I we all have our little methods so good luck regardless.
I like the under 7.5 in the Roman/Wangek fight. Roman is due for a big KO and Wangek's resume is pretty weak, aside his record. His record shows he has power and probably thinks his only hope is to catch Roman. So my thinking is either way he'll be there to hit or be hit. Somebody "should" get a stoppage before the middle of the 8th, is my guess.....hopefully!
armageto wrote:I like the under 7.5 in the Roman/Wangek fight. Roman is due for a big KO and Wangek's resume is pretty weak, aside his record. His record shows he has power and probably thinks his only hope is to catch Roman. So my thinking is either way he'll be there to hit or be hit. Somebody "should" get a stoppage before the middle of the 8th, is my guess.....hopefully!
A part of me feels as though Roman might be ever so slightly on the slide, maybe it's just the extra weight, but I think his KO ratio will slow down in the next couple of years. I'm with William Hill and they're not offering a price on the fight to go 12 but others have it at 2/1. I'd be tempted by that but I hope you're right and Chocolatito gets another KO to add to his legendary career.
armageto wrote:I like the under 7.5 in the Roman/Wangek fight. Roman is due for a big KO and Wangek's resume is pretty weak, aside his record. His record shows he has power and probably thinks his only hope is to catch Roman. So my thinking is either way he'll be there to hit or be hit. Somebody "should" get a stoppage before the middle of the 8th, is my guess.....hopefully!
I actually think at 3.25 decision for Gonzalez is the best bet. My reasons for this is:
Gonzalez's power didn't seem to cause Caudras problems. Rungvisai is very aggressive and had Caudras moving more than Gonzalez did until the clash of head caused a cut which stopped the fight.
armageto wrote:I like the under 7.5 in the Roman/Wangek fight. Roman is due for a big KO and Wangek's resume is pretty weak, aside his record. His record shows he has power and probably thinks his only hope is to catch Roman. So my thinking is either way he'll be there to hit or be hit. Somebody "should" get a stoppage before the middle of the 8th, is my guess.....hopefully!
A part of me feels as though Roman might be ever so slightly on the slide, maybe it's just the extra weight, but I think his KO ratio will slow down in the next couple of years. I'm with William Hill and they're not offering a price on the fight to go 12 but others have it at 2/1. I'd be tempted by that but I hope you're right and Chocolatito gets another KO to add to his legendary career.
I don't know much about Wangek, aside his record analysis. I do agree with you on Roman, since moving up in weight his power isn't the same, plus ring age is slowly creeping in. Wangek is coming off two pro debut fighters in a row. I know that isn't totally unfamiliar on that side of the world, however, he has really just one solid win against Salgado. I just think the difference of class will be a lot. Even if he springs an upset, if the power on his record actually shows in the ring, I'd suspect it to be early.
Chocolatito apparently struggling with his weight cut for Saturday's bout, it looks like. Jamie Conlan is a boxer himself and the brother of Michael Conlan, the Irish boxer who got robbed by the judges at the most recent Olympics and who is presently in NYC preparing to make his pro debut at The Theater at MSG tomorrow night, one day ahead of Chocolatito's bout on PPV. I added a little on the Thai's decision line at big odds:
Wisaksil Wangek Points Victory or Technical Decision (+2500) vs Roman Gonzalez ~$25.00 for ~$625.00
Interesting one, previously mentioned Alan Higgins was 1/5 to beat Craig Richards. Higgins now a 6/5 underdog with Richards the favourite. Unless it's a typo that is a huge swing in the betting.
I've not seen much of Richards, Higgins has certainly had the better tests, Alistair Warren is no mug nor is Cello Renda. I'll have a points double for Higgins and Bellotti wins.
armageto wrote:I like the under 7.5 in the Roman/Wangek fight. Roman is due for a big KO and Wangek's resume is pretty weak, aside his record. His record shows he has power and probably thinks his only hope is to catch Roman. So my thinking is either way he'll be there to hit or be hit. Somebody "should" get a stoppage before the middle of the 8th, is my guess.....hopefully!
I actually think at 3.25 decision for Gonzalez is the best bet. My reasons for this is:
Gonzalez's power didn't seem to cause Caudras problems. Rungvisai is very aggressive and had Caudras moving more than Gonzalez did until the clash of head caused a cut which stopped the fight.
I actually don't know much about Wangek, aside from his record. Looking at his record, and as you stated, Wangek seems to be a pressure type guy. Thus my thinking was he will be there to hit....and to hit. Opponent wise, outside of one win, his resume looks extremely weak. As long as somebody, preferably Wangek, gets stopped before the middle of the 8th, I'll be happy.
If you bet Roman via decision, good luck to you. Hopefully somebody wins........
armageto wrote:I like the under 7.5 in the Roman/Wangek fight. Roman is due for a big KO and Wangek's resume is pretty weak, aside his record. His record shows he has power and probably thinks his only hope is to catch Roman. So my thinking is either way he'll be there to hit or be hit. Somebody "should" get a stoppage before the middle of the 8th, is my guess.....hopefully!
I actually think at 3.25 decision for Gonzalez is the best bet. My reasons for this is:
Gonzalez's power didn't seem to cause Caudras problems. Rungvisai is very aggressive and had Caudras moving more than Gonzalez did until the clash of head caused a cut which stopped the fight.
I actually don't know much about Wangek, aside from his record. Looking at his record, and as you stated, Wangek seems to be a pressure type guy. Thus my thinking was he will be there to hit....and to be hit. Opponent wise, outside of one win, his resume looks extremely weak. As long as somebody, preferably Wangek, gets stopped before the middle of the 8th, I'll be happy.
If you bet Roman via decision, good luck to you. Hopefully somebody wins........
I looked up some Youtube video on David Grayton.....he is pretty horrible. Granted Cintron is past it, but I think Kermy knows he can get one more payday. His power should still be there and I can't see him losing to this chinless bastard.
Wichita State and R.I. look worth a play in the NCAA. So I'll make a play on each and on Cintron, who is at -170. Grayton just looks terrible. Cintron would have to be completely shot to shyt to lose to this guy.
armageto wrote:I looked up some Youtube video on David Grayton.....he is pretty horrible. Granted Cintron is past it, but I think Kermy knows he can get one more payday. His power should still be there and I can't see him losing to this chinless bastard.
Wichita State and R.I. look worth a play in the NCAA. So I'll make a play on each and on Cintron, who is at -170. Grayton just looks terrible. Cintron would have to be completely shot to shyt to lose to this guy.
Grayton is not great as I stated but I've gotta believe at 10/3 he is worth a play against Cintron. He throws alot and brings the pressure I dont think Cintron will like it, nevertheless maybe Cintron is a favourite for a reason.
Jmashyaka wrote:
I actually think at 3.25 decision for Gonzalez is the best bet. My reasons for this is:
Gonzalez's power didn't seem to cause Caudras problems. Rungvisai is very aggressive and had Caudras moving more than Gonzalez did until the clash of head caused a cut which stopped the fight.
I actually don't know much about Wangek, aside from his record. Looking at his record, and as you stated, Wangek seems to be a pressure type guy. Thus my thinking was he will be there to hit....and to be hit. Opponent wise, outside of one win, his resume looks extremely weak. As long as somebody, preferably Wangek, gets stopped before the middle of the 8th, I'll be happy.
If you bet Roman via decision, good luck to you. Hopefully somebody wins........
Your spot on mate a stoppage makes sense at because both are pressure fighters but we could see a Muira vs Vargas type war where the action gos back and forth, I didnt wanna go for the stoppage because the odds for decision are worth the play for me. I think taking the over is the best play to be fair but Paddy power wasnt offering it.
To all the people who bet on Rivera you were so unlucky the guy was robbed big time apparently. I wasn't able to stream the fight but alot of people are saying it was the worst decision this year.
armageto wrote:
I actually don't know much about Wangek, aside from his record. Looking at his record, and as you stated, Wangek seems to be a pressure type guy. Thus my thinking was he will be there to hit....and to be hit. Opponent wise, outside of one win, his resume looks extremely weak. As long as somebody, preferably Wangek, gets stopped before the middle of the 8th, I'll be happy.
If you bet Roman via decision, good luck to you. Hopefully somebody wins........
Your spot on mate a stoppage makes sense at because both are pressure fighters but we could see a Muira vs Vargas type war where the action gos back and forth, I didnt wanna go for the stoppage because the odds for decision are worth the play for me. I think taking the over is the best play to be fair but Paddy power wasnt offering it.
Good luck with your stoppage bet mate.
Thanks man, same to you if you bet the over. Let somebody win is all I ask....
Jmashyaka wrote:To all the people who bet on Rivera you were so unlucky the guy was robbed big time apparently. I wasn't able to stream the fight but alot of people are saying it was the worst decision this year.
Jmashyaka wrote:To all the people who bet on Rivera you were so unlucky the guy was robbed big time apparently. I wasn't able to stream the fight but alot of people are saying it was the worst decision this year.
Genuinely crap decision. At worst Rivera won 8 rounds, a good value bet, and an unlucky one.
Jmashyaka wrote:To all the people who bet on Rivera you were so unlucky the guy was robbed big time apparently. I wasn't able to stream the fight but alot of people are saying it was the worst decision this year.
I couldn't find a stream either, but I was following the RBR on another forum and they all said the same thing, Rivera got robbed by the judges in Russia. Don't regret my small bet at +1050.
I know they have the one referee scoring in four rounders in England, but in a ten round fight too? Pretty lame. Even Eddie Hearn disagreed with that one, lol. Threw away my fight goes distance winnings there.
