IF Klitschko Wins...

[HomicideHenry]

Only going to take one left hook to see what AJ is made. I want to see AJ take these shots. I don't want to see a blowout as I suspect he'll go for. I can't see him winning a jabathon

The way I see it is this.... Whyte almost took Joshua out of there.... Not knocking the guy in any way, but if Whyte could almost do it, I'm pretty damn certain Klitschko will do it... Whether anyone likes Wladimir or not, the man has been the hardest hitting heavyweight we've had since Lennox Lewis.... I've interviewed many heavyweights who have either sparred him or fought him, and they always remarked that even his jabs felt like getting thrown head first into a wall....

Joshua, in my estimation, hasn't really improved since his pro debut. He still fights the same as he always did. The only difference between then and now is that he had a helluva matchmaker and promoter, who managed to get him in that fight with Charles Martin for the IBF championship: a circumstance that should have never occured in the first place (politics be damned) he relies too much on his power, and little else. He fights in a straight line, with no real head movement. Sure he has fast hands for a man of his size, but then again so does Klitschko.

People tend to say Klitschko is old, slowing down, etc. but at the same time it took one of the fastest, most unorthodox heavyweights (Fury) to make him look that way. I think had he fought anyone else on that night in Hamburg, we'd be still seeing Klitschko on top of the world and probably making a title defense or two in the interim. That's how huge the disparity is between him and everyone else. I'm not knocking Joshua, I just think he's two-three years "off" the mark. He's been forced into glory way too soon. Had he lived in the 1980's he'd probably of been most comparable to Tyrell Biggs in the sense he was a talented amateur, who had some decent wins, and got a shot too soon.

I expect him to come out blasting, but I also suspect the moment Joshua tastes the "steel hammer", he may grow cautious. Alot of brave and willing men tried to stand toe to toe with Klitschko, only to get scared once they got hit. Joshua's style is such that it's not like he's going to be able to outbox Wladimir. He doesnt have the speed or ring generalship to do so. He's a stalker, facing another stalker-sort of man in that ring. And Klitschko has certainly fought men who hit just as hard as Joshua in the past (Samuel Peter for example) and he managed to win decisions over them, despite being dropped. Joshua has never been really in the fire to be hardened yet. I'll give him props if he can go longer than I suspect, or even be competitive. But I suspect the "old man" will look like his old self come the night.

[SaadOffTheDeck]

If Wlad wins he will finally have a signature win and I'd be forced to reevaluate him historically. Probably put him all time top 20 for me. And yes, even though the Fury fight was the worst fight I've ever seen, it would validate Tyson's win even further. It's already a good one, sloppy, crap fight aside.

[SAPFO]

Great post Henry. I see it similar to yourself, an early blowout for AJ, or Wlad wins it. That left-hook Wlad landed on Peter in the 12th that had him dancing would destroy AJ based on what we've seen so far. Can anybody argue with that?

[Rob3_142]

I'm sorry, but 'hasn't really improved since his pro debut'?

I urge you to watch his first pro fight, than watch the fight vs. Breazeale.

[Asterix]

I think Joshua has very good power, and is aggressive, but his skills aren't that great. He's got decent offensive variety, but is predictable and has poor footwork. Fortunately for him, there's not much to beat.

Yeah, he looks ponderous. Very little head movement, too. But it's all about levels. He hasn't needed to be better against his previous opponents. Against Whyte he had some trouble, adapted, and no longer had any trouble. It's often the ability to adapt that sets the top level boxers apart, imo.

[HomicideHenry]

I'm sorry, but 'hasn't really improved since his pro debut'?

I urge you to watch his first pro fight, than watch the fight vs. Breazeale.

I'm sorry.... I just don't... the only difference between that debut and now, in my view, is that the kid is more bold and more confident in the ring.... He's taking more risks, throwing more bombs.... Which is great for the fans, but I have to question just how wise that is especially when he's going up against more or less the real Ivan Drago.... ONE MISTAKE is all it takes when you have 245+ pound athletes whose boxed all their lives, and its over.

[TheLeprechaun]

Klitschko is going to be terrified of Joshua in there. The fight will be over before the first bell. Once he takes a right hand he will panic and do a Price. He's never had the heart but his natural size and being well skilled fundamentally, have made him never had to show heart to win. The times he had to show heart he looked dreadful. Unless he's overmatching his opponent, he won't win the fight. All Joshua has to do is come in game and let his hands go. Klitschko will fold, he's exactly the same as Price when the going gets tough. He's obviously several levels above price in every other department.

[nitro5912]

Lets get this right. Whyte didnt almost get hin out of there. He caught him clean, joshuas legs wobbled. He saw the round out and gained his composure and came back to put whyte to sleep on the ropes.

Saying whyte almost got him out of there is like saying cunnigham almost KOd fury.

[HomicideHenry]

Lets get this right. Whyte didnt almost get hin out of there. He caught him clean, joshuas legs wobbled. He saw the round out and gained his composure and came back to put whyte to sleep on the ropes.

Saying whyte almost got him out of there is like saying cunnigham almost KOd fury.

Tyson Fury got STRAIGHT UP after being dropped and was more surprised to be on his back than anything else.
Joshua looked ill at ease. That's the difference.

[Ossyrules]

To answer the original question:

If Wlad beats AJ then I think it has to add substance to Furys win. There is a contingent that believe Fury won as Wlad was finished and old. Well if he beats AJ it shows he still has a helluva lot in the tank. AJ is just about as big a test Wlad has had in years.

There's a few things getting mentioned in this thread that don't hold much weight though that need clearing up.

Fury has the quickest hands in the heavyweight division - not true. AJ puts combinations together much quicker to name 1. Fury has good speed for a man his size. He also doesn't really load up or sit down on his punches, which elevates speed in a way.

AJ has not improved since his debut - BS. Extremely naive comment. Sure he has no real test but as someone whose watched every fight he's had, as they've happened, the improvements are clear. More patient, more relaxed, more spiteful. He's come through the Whyte drama and learned how to come out the other side.

AJ has poor footwork - untrue. Apart from for a couple of rounds vs Whyte where he got heavy legged when Whyte put it on him. His game plan is clear he wants to set himself and land combinations of hard punches. His footwork puts him where he wants to be

How I think the fight will go:

I'd be amazed if Wlad got AJ out of there in anything less than 10 rounds. Wlad during his peak generally only puts it on an opponent when he's absolutely well and truly in control and there is little to no risk opening up. Manny Steward in one fight was screaming for Wlad to put it on his opponent but his response was to tell Manny to relax he's in control. Wlad is not a killer he's a methodical systematical boxer. The variable is, apart from AJ getting sucked into a grudge match vs Whyte where he made mistakes, getting to emotionally involved imo, he's done nothing wrong but he's had little come back at him. So it's hard to say. If Wlads still got it he could frustrate AJ, keep ramming that jab out and AJ could get made to become frustrated and show his inexperience vs a top opponent. What I think will happen is that AJ at some point within rounds 5-8 will have closed the gap to let hard punches go, and Wlad will get beat in a "fight". He's a great boxer but he's not robust in that sense, and AJ will out fight him imo

[dirk2686]

Lets get this right. Whyte didnt almost get hin out of there. He caught him clean, joshuas legs wobbled. He saw the round out and gained his composure and came back to put whyte to sleep on the ropes.

Saying whyte almost got him out of there is like saying cunnigham almost KOd fury.

Agree with this.

Whyte landed a decent shot, Joshua was hurt but only briefly, and was looking composed very soon afterwards. Jim Watt screaming about crisis mode made me think more that Sky were very keen, (almost desperate) on the fight not turning into a total mismatch as it was Joshua's first PPV headliner and him waltzing in and massacring Whyte would have looked bad.

People have made far more of that punch that it warranted, purely because Joshua gets hit very rarely.

To answer the question, a Wlad win would elevate Fury's win; of that there seems little doubt, unless it's some sort of once in a blue moon twisted ankle or something. I do think however that if Joshua goes out and destroys him not only will we have the line about Wlad being old, which is fair, but also that Fury 'ruined him.' I'd suggest the latter is a little far-fetched.

[SaadOffTheDeck]

Lets get this right. Whyte didnt almost get hin out of there. He caught him clean, joshuas legs wobbled. He saw the round out and gained his composure and came back to put whyte to sleep on the ropes.

Saying whyte almost got him out of there is like saying cunnigham almost KOd fury.

Tyson Fury got STRAIGHT UP after being dropped and was more surprised to be on his back than anything else.
Joshua looked ill at ease. That's the difference.

[Rob3_142]

Lets get this right. Whyte didnt almost get hin out of there. He caught him clean, joshuas legs wobbled. He saw the round out and gained his composure and came back to put whyte to sleep on the ropes.

Saying whyte almost got him out of there is like saying cunnigham almost KOd fury.

Tyson Fury got STRAIGHT UP after being dropped and was more surprised to be on his back than anything else.
Joshua looked ill at ease. That's the difference.

Hold up, surely being put on the deck is much worse than being wobbled, but staying on your feet?

[Rob3_142]

To answer the original question:

If Wlad beats AJ then I think it has to add substance to Furys win. There is a contingent that believe Fury won as Wlad was finished and old. Well if he beats AJ it shows he still has a helluva lot in the tank. AJ is just about as big a test Wlad has had in years.

There's a few things getting mentioned in this thread that don't hold much weight though that need clearing up.

Fury has the quickest hands in the heavyweight division - not true. AJ puts combinations together much quicker to name 1. Fury has good speed for a man his size. He also doesn't really load up or sit down on his punches, which elevates speed in a way.

AJ has not improved since his debut - BS. Extremely naive comment. Sure he has no real test but as someone whose watched every fight he's had, as they've happened, the improvements are clear. More patient, more relaxed, more spiteful. He's come through the Whyte drama and learned how to come out the other side.

AJ has poor footwork - untrue. Apart from for a couple of rounds vs Whyte where he got heavy legged when Whyte put it on him. His game plan is clear he wants to set himself and land combinations of hard punches. His footwork puts him where he wants to be

How I think the fight will go:

I'd be amazed if Wlad got AJ out of there in anything less than 10 rounds. Wlad during his peak generally only puts it on an opponent when he's absolutely well and truly in control and there is little to no risk opening up. Manny Steward in one fight was screaming for Wlad to put it on his opponent but his response was to tell Manny to relax he's in control. Wlad is not a killer he's a methodical systematical boxer. The variable is, apart from AJ getting sucked into a grudge match vs Whyte where he made mistakes, getting to emotionally involved imo, he's done nothing wrong but he's had little come back at him. So it's hard to say. If Wlads still got it he could frustrate AJ, keep ramming that jab out and AJ could get made to become frustrated and show his inexperience vs a top opponent. What I think will happen is that AJ at some point within rounds 5-8 will have closed the gap to let hard punches go, and Wlad will get beat in a "fight". He's a great boxer but he's not robust in that sense, and AJ will out fight him imo

This.

[JimJim2009]

Klitschko is going to be terrified of Joshua in there. The fight will be over before the first bell. Once he takes a right hand he will panic and do a Price. He's never had the heart but his natural size and being well skilled fundamentally, have made him never had to show heart to win. The times he had to show heart he looked dreadful. Unless he's overmatching his opponent, he won't win the fight. All Joshua has to do is come in game and let his hands go. Klitschko will fold, he's exactly the same as Price when the going gets tough. He's obviously several levels above price in every other department.

spot on

[Rob3_142]

I'm sorry, but 'hasn't really improved since his pro debut'?

I urge you to watch his first pro fight, than watch the fight vs. Breazeale.

I'm sorry.... I just don't... the only difference between that debut and now, in my view, is that the kid is more bold and more confident in the ring.... He's taking more risks, throwing more bombs.... Which is great for the fans, but I have to question just how wise that is especially when he's going up against more or less the real Ivan Drago.... ONE MISTAKE is all it takes when you have 245+ pound athletes whose boxed all their lives, and its over.

Joshua has definitely gained in confidence, and the risks will always increase as you step up the level of opposition, but suggest that's where the improvements start and end since his pro debut, are far short.

On his debut he was uncoordinated, off balance, unsure of when to engage and his defence was ropey at best. 18 fights on, his centre of gravity is a lot more stabilised, he now commands the centre of the ring, his defence is one of the best I have seen out there, and he demonstrates good footwork to get in and out of range effectively. He throws impressive accurate combinations now, which are much more complex and diverse than before, and more importantly, he is a lot more patient. Especially in the last few fights, he learned not to try blow people out, but to soften them up, work them, which I think will be important against Klitschko.

[Coco]

I think even with a faded Klit all the questions good or bad will be answered about Joshua.

[rossij8]

If you try and walk through Wlad you will be countered and bombed out - Fury knew this and was awkward, and boxed perfectly for 12 rounds with his size advantage (scarily well for a big lump)

No one has walked through Wlad in years

If AJ does this, I will be very impressed, but I don't think he has the boxing skills of Fury

Wlad may be rusty but he will be prepared for this one

[Ossyrules]

If you try and walk through Wlad you will be countered and bombed out - Fury knew this and was awkward, and boxed perfectly for 12 rounds with his size advantage (scarily well for a big lump)

No one has walked through Wlad in years

If AJ does this, I will be very impressed, but I don't think he has the boxing skills of Fury

Wlad may be rusty but he will be prepared for this one

I know it was years ago and Wlad reinvented himself under steward, but until fury the only evidence of being able to beat Wlad was to walk through him and put it on him.

Wlads change of style just made it more difficult to get in a position to do that but he hasn't sudden become Big George and you go near him and he'll bomb you all over the ring. That is the last thing Wlad wants to do.

Anything can happen in heavyweight boxing, but there's little evidence that if AJ goes in too hard Wlad will be all over him to the point of no return.i said above, Wlad will just look to control things, and if he does get AJ out of there it'll be late

[SaadOffTheDeck]

If you try and walk through Wlad you will be countered and bombed out - Fury knew this and was awkward, and boxed perfectly for 12 rounds with his size advantage (scarily well for a big lump)

No one has walked through Wlad in years

If AJ does this, I will be very impressed, but I don't think he has the boxing skills of Fury

Wlad may be rusty but he will be prepared for this one

I know it was years ago and Wlad reinvented himself under steward, but until fury the only evidence of being able to beat Wlad was to walk through him and put it on him.

Wlads change of style just made it more difficult to get in a position to do that but he hasn't sudden become Big George and you go near him and he'll bomb you all over the ring. That is the last thing Wlad wants to do.

Anything can happen in heavyweight boxing, but there's little evidence that if AJ goes in too hard Wlad will be all over him to the point of no return.i said above, Wlad will just look to control things, and if he does get AJ out of there it'll be late

wlad would try and hold someone coming at him aggressively far more comfortably than engage them. I think he was better before the change personally.

[rossij8]

If you try and walk through Wlad you will be countered and bombed out - Fury knew this and was awkward, and boxed perfectly for 12 rounds with his size advantage (scarily well for a big lump)

No one has walked through Wlad in years

If AJ does this, I will be very impressed, but I don't think he has the boxing skills of Fury

Wlad may be rusty but he will be prepared for this one

I know it was years ago and Wlad reinvented himself under steward, but until fury the only evidence of being able to beat Wlad was to walk through him and put it on him.

Wlads change of style just made it more difficult to get in a position to do that but he hasn't sudden become Big George and you go near him and he'll bomb you all over the ring. That is the last thing Wlad wants to do.

Anything can happen in heavyweight boxing, but there's little evidence that if AJ goes in too hard Wlad will be all over him to the point of no return.i said above, Wlad will just look to control things, and if he does get AJ out of there it'll be late

Nice reply, and I agree - I'm just wondering if AJ has a chin similar to Wlad - we don't know yet

[Ossyrules]

If you try and walk through Wlad you will be countered and bombed out - Fury knew this and was awkward, and boxed perfectly for 12 rounds with his size advantage (scarily well for a big lump)

No one has walked through Wlad in years

If AJ does this, I will be very impressed, but I don't think he has the boxing skills of Fury

Wlad may be rusty but he will be prepared for this one

I know it was years ago and Wlad reinvented himself under steward, but until fury the only evidence of being able to beat Wlad was to walk through him and put it on him.

Wlads change of style just made it more difficult to get in a position to do that but he hasn't sudden become Big George and you go near him and he'll bomb you all over the ring. That is the last thing Wlad wants to do.

Anything can happen in heavyweight boxing, but there's little evidence that if AJ goes in too hard Wlad will be all over him to the point of no return.i said above, Wlad will just look to control things, and if he does get AJ out of there it'll be late

Nice reply, and I agree - I'm just wondering if AJ has a chin similar to Wlad - we don't know yet

True, most these top guys are so big that if they commit to there punch, and the opponent isn't ready to roll with it or block it, whoever you are you're going over. I think a few people get glass jaw repuatations unfairly and then it sticks.

Example Lennox, got put down by a couple big punches vs McCall and Rahman. Neither were top class but both could punch. Certainly McCall. Lennox always carried the chinny repuatation after that. But really it's an exaggeration. He took big punches from Vitali, Shannon Briggs, Ray Mercer and came thru them all. His chin isn't as bad as what people say. That's just one example I could list loads.

I feel an AJ win is better for boxing as the up and comer, but I hope he doesn't get tagged and then have to change his style, as Wlad used to be excited before he fought so defensively

[Asterix]

Lets get this right. Whyte didnt almost get hin out of there. He caught him clean, joshuas legs wobbled. He saw the round out and gained his composure and came back to put whyte to sleep on the ropes.

Saying whyte almost got him out of there is like saying cunnigham almost KOd fury.

Tyson Fury got STRAIGHT UP after being dropped and was more surprised to be on his back than anything else.
Joshua looked ill at ease. That's the difference.

You need to re-watch the fight. Joshua was fine.

[Counter-puncher]

Lets get this right. Whyte didnt almost get hin out of there. He caught him clean, joshuas legs wobbled. He saw the round out and gained his composure and came back to put whyte to sleep on the ropes.

Saying whyte almost got him out of there is like saying cunnigham almost KOd fury.

Tyson Fury got STRAIGHT UP after being dropped and was more surprised to be on his back than anything else.
Joshua looked ill at ease. That's the difference.

Wait is rufus trying to sell a knockdown as not being as bad as getting briefly wobbled?

[Loynesy]

Perhaps I'm being overly simplistic, but I think AJ is going to walk through wlad in a round or two. When Wlad was younger, he was undone by lateral movement and a bang (i.e. Corey Saunders).

Joshua has little or no sideways movement,but he is fighting a 41 year old static target - and he can definitely bang.