Betting thread

[JimGunn]

Fired a 1u play on Indongo over Burns at this price as I was impressed by the hard hitting southpaw and his fast KO of Troyanovsky. Not sure if that price will go up or not:

Julius Indongo (+175) vs Ricky Burns $100.00 for $175.00

[freddydoesdallas]

Bet365 offer back for the athletico Leicester match on weds

[Deno1986]

Bet365 offer back for the athletico Leicester match on weds

[ShadrachSimmo]

What are people thinking about Burns v Indongo? Bookies have Burns a touch under evens for points win. Burns to be knocked down and win @ 9/2 and both fighters to be knocked down @ 9/1 seem decent.

[littlepug]

Joshua rounds 1-3, spence rounds 1-6 and horn rounds 7-12 pays 780-1, so with a bit of luck kilt falls apart early, brooks eye injury resurfaces and pac pulls out injured late on !

[JimGunn]

I'm on Indongo at +175, Indongo Points Victory or Technical Decision at +520 and a little stab at both fighters to be knocked down at +900.

[boxingknockout]

Ok taking a leaf outta JimGunn's book and laying it down in detail. Remember - the key to me is value, not what you think will happen (famous last words :-))

So some underdog betting for weekend. I have looked at records, ages, experience and these are the bets I feel have some value:

Carlos Soto over Malik Hawkins - 13.0. Soto is a tough Mexican.Hawkins somewhat untested. Think odds should be 6.0 or 5.0 not this high.

Clarkson over Bivol - 9.0. Expect Bivol to win but clarkson will provide tough opposition. I think this fight should be priced at 5.0

Zakaria Attou over Beausiere - 5.0. Attou very tough and experienced, Beausiere toughest fight. Neither punchers. I think Attou should be 2.75 underdog not this long.

Paul Parker over Sullivan Barrera - 15.0. Long shot but whilst both had opposite results against Shabbrinsky, Parker floored him twice and is dangerous.... again, 15.0 is too long - I reckon true odds should be 7.5 or 8.0.

Butcher over Edwards - caught this at 11.0, great value **no longer available**. Price is now 4.0. Thanks to the board for this tip, stay away at these odds.

Ps I put fiver on each result, except tenner on Attou....

Pps I'm more scared of Letting people down than losing the money, wish me luck! One win brings a profit even if small (I think)

[littlepug]

Ok taking a leaf outta JimGunn's book and laying it down in detail. Remember - the key to me is value, not what you think will happen (famous last words :-))

So some underdog betting for weekend. I have looked at records, ages, experience and these are the bets I feel have some value:

Carlos Soto over Malik Hawkins - 13.0. Soto is a tough Mexican.Hawkins somewhat untested. Think odds should be 6.0 or 5.0 not this high.

Clarkson over Bivol - 9.0. Expect Bivol to win but clarkson will provide tough opposition. I think this fight should be priced at 5.0

Zakaria Attou over Beausiere - 5.0. Attou very tough and experienced, Beausiere toughest fight. Neither punchers. I think Attou should be 2.75 underdog not this long.

Paul Parker over Sullivan Barrera - 15.0. Long shot but whilst both had opposite results against Shabbrinsky, Parker floored him twice and is dangerous.... again, 15.0 is too long - I reckon true odds should be 7.5 or 8.0.

Butcher over Edwards - caught this at 11.0, great value **no longer available**. Price is now 4.0. Thanks to the board for this tip, stay away at these odds.

Ps I put fiver on each result, except tenner on Attou....

Pps I'm more scared of Letting people down than losing the money, wish me luck! One win brings a profit even if small (I think)

Good luck keep us posted

[boxingknockout]

Ok taking a leaf outta JimGunn's book and laying it down in detail. Remember - the key to me is value, not what you think will happen (famous last words :-))

So some underdog betting for weekend. I have looked at records, ages, experience and these are the bets I feel have some value:

Carlos Soto over Malik Hawkins - 13.0. Soto is a tough Mexican.Hawkins somewhat untested. Think odds should be 6.0 or 5.0 not this high.

Clarkson over Bivol - 9.0. Expect Bivol to win but clarkson will provide tough opposition. I think this fight should be priced at 5.0

Zakaria Attou over Beausiere - 5.0. Attou very tough and experienced, Beausiere toughest fight. Neither punchers. I think Attou should be 2.75 underdog not this long.

Paul Parker over Sullivan Barrera - 15.0. Long shot but whilst both had opposite results against Shabbrinsky, Parker floored him twice and is dangerous.... again, 15.0 is too long - I reckon true odds should be 7.5 or 8.0.

Butcher over Edwards - caught this at 11.0, great value **no longer available**. Price is now 4.0. Thanks to the board for this tip, stay away at these odds.

Ps I put fiver on each result, except tenner on Attou....

Pps I'm more scared of Letting people down than losing the money, wish me luck! One win brings a profit even if small (I think)

Good luck keep us posted

Cheers will do

[JimGunn]

Sounds like boxingknockout got bitten by the underdog bug, he he. It's addictive, I tell you! Based strictly on BoxRec capping, I see undefeated Hawkins has less experience than the never beaten Soto and only faced one opponent with a winning record, so stabbing at the value play there. It's kind of odd to me at least that in the ShowBox main event Friday night two relatively little known boxers in Clarkson vs Bivol are competing for a WBA world LHW belt, even an interim one. Bigger weight class fighters have more punching power so more chance for puncher's chance upsets imho. And speaking of power, I recall watching Parker dropped LHW contender Shabranskyy twice in round one in a TKO loss and dropped his last opponent en route to a decision win, so I like the value on the dog Saturday evening on HBO Latino here in the U.S.. I personally put small bets on these dogs so far:

Clarkson over Bivol at +1161
Soto over Hawkins at +1250
Parker over Sullivan at +2000.

I'm sure I'll have a couple more plays for the weekend, so I'll post my bets in detail like usual by tomorrow afternoon.

[crusader]

Anyone seen Khurtsidze-Langford odds?

[ardybo]

There appears to be money going on Ryan Collins to beat Charlie Flynn. I would have thought Flynn would be a handy favorite in this one. Does anyone have any other insight into this contest that I am missing.

[ChessBoxer]

There appears to be money going on Ryan Collins to beat Charlie Flynn. I would have thought Flynn would be a handy favorite in this one. Does anyone have any other insight into this contest that I am missing.

Collins has been overlooked the odds speak for themselves moved from 11/4 yesterday to 7/4 today.

[The Insider]

Sounds like boxingknockout got bitten by the underdog bug, he he. It's addictive, I tell you! Based strictly on BoxRec capping, I see undefeated Hawkins has less experience than the never beaten Soto and only faced one opponent with a winning record, so stabbing at the value play there. It's kind of odd to me at least that in the ShowBox main event Friday night two relatively little known boxers in Clarkson vs Bivol are competing for a WBA world LHW belt, even an interim one. Bigger weight class fighters have more punching power so more chance for puncher's chance upsets imho. And speaking of power, I recall watching Parker dropped LHW contender Shabranskyy twice in round one in a TKO loss and dropped his last opponent en route to a decision win, so I like the value on the dog Saturday evening on HBO Latino here in the U.S.. I personally put small bets on these dogs so far:

Clarkson over Bivol at +1161
Soto over Hawkins at +1250
Parker over Sullivan at +2000.

I'm sure I'll have a couple more plays for the weekend, so I'll post my bets in detail like usual by tomorrow afternoon.

I know you like the dogs so im surprised you haven't spotted Robbie Barrett @ 6/1 vs Cardle. He's in with a real shout. Odds of 6/1 in what I think is a 60/40 in favour of Cardle are way off in my book. Definitely worth a nibble.

[boxingknockout]

Sounds like boxingknockout got bitten by the underdog bug, he he. It's addictive, I tell you! Based strictly on BoxRec capping, I see undefeated Hawkins has less experience than the never beaten Soto and only faced one opponent with a winning record, so stabbing at the value play there. It's kind of odd to me at least that in the ShowBox main event Friday night two relatively little known boxers in Clarkson vs Bivol are competing for a WBA world LHW belt, even an interim one. Bigger weight class fighters have more punching power so more chance for puncher's chance upsets imho. And speaking of power, I recall watching Parker dropped LHW contender Shabranskyy twice in round one in a TKO loss and dropped his last opponent en route to a decision win, so I like the value on the dog Saturday evening on HBO Latino here in the U.S.. I personally put small bets on these dogs so far:

Clarkson over Bivol at +1161
Soto over Hawkins at +1250
Parker over Sullivan at +2000.

I'm sure I'll have a couple more plays for the weekend, so I'll post my bets in detail like usual by tomorrow afternoon.

Well, there's nothing more satisfying than beating the odds with a big underdog....

But my golden rule is value, not prediction on result. I used to keep a spreadsheet and probably only one one bet in 3 or 4 (including long odds accumulators) but would always make profit on the year, usually +30% of money staked. I bet less often and for smaller amounts since I lost my income though so haven't been keeping a list of all bets.

The Haye loss really ballsed up a lot of my accumulators, where all my other bets had come in and this was the bet I was most certain of.

Anyway I researched all these dogs and inbrlive there is value there and it seems you concur, so let it roll!

[boxingknockout]

I know you like the dogs so im surprised you haven't spotted Robbie Barrett @ 6/1 vs Cardle. He's in with a real shout. Odds of 6/1 in what I think is a 60/40 in favour of Cardle are way off in my book. Definitely worth a nibble.

I looked at that, and haven't seen Barrett but I just don't see anything in his record to suggest he can spring an upset. He has some ugly early results too.

Have you seen him fight?

[The Insider]

I know you like the dogs so im surprised you haven't spotted Robbie Barrett @ 6/1 vs Cardle. He's in with a real shout. Odds of 6/1 in what I think is a 60/40 in favour of Cardle are way off in my book. Definitely worth a nibble.

I looked at that, and haven't seen Barrett but I just don't see anything in his record to suggest he can spring an upset. He has some ugly early results too.

Have you seen him fight?

Yeah saw him live a few times. His last 3 contests have been his best stopping Adam Kettleborough, virtually shutting out the dangerous banger Marcus Ffrench and winning convincingly over ten against Kev Hooper. Admittedly Cardle did a number on Hooper stopping him Barrett has the tools to make it a hard night for him. Steffy Bull is quietly confident too. Cardle is rightfully the favorite and he should win but 6/1 is wide.

[boxingknockout]

I know you like the dogs so im surprised you haven't spotted Robbie Barrett @ 6/1 vs Cardle. He's in with a real shout. Odds of 6/1 in what I think is a 60/40 in favour of Cardle are way off in my book. Definitely worth a nibble.

I looked at that, and haven't seen Barrett but I just don't see anything in his record to suggest he can spring an upset. He has some ugly early results too.

Have you seen him fight?

Yeah saw him live a few times. His last 3 contests have been his best stopping Adam Kettleborough, virtually shutting out the dangerous banger Marcus Ffrench and winning convincingly over ten against Kev Hooper. Admittedly Cardle did a number on Hooper stopping him Barrett has the tools to make it a hard night for him. Steffy Bull is quietly confident too. Cardle is rightfully the favorite and he should win but 6/1 is wide.

Thanks - I'm keeping away though (again famous last words!)

[world ranked]

Took Indongo (+175), Burns just seem like the type that can lose to anyone at anytime. I heard guys talk about "value". I bet big favorites sometimes. I say a winning bet has no bad value but to each its own. But a question is it possible to have "value" on a 1/6 favorite when maybe he should be 1/20.
I mean that's value too, but does anyone seeing a big favorite still having value?

[boxingknockout]

Took Indongo (+175), Burns just seem like the type that can lose to anyone at anytime. I heard guys talk about "value". I bet big favorites sometimes. I say a winning bet has no bad value but to each its own. But a question is it possible to have "value" on a 1/6 favorite when maybe he should be 1/20.
I mean that's value too, but does anyone seeing a big favorite still having value?

I bet £25 on Indongo weeks ago. We'll see.

As to your other query - great question. In theory yes that would offer very good value. However - would I be willing to bet on it? Probably not - to make it worthwhile you would have to bet a considerable stake and there can always be freak results - injuries, cuts, DQs. I wouldn't want to risk such a large amount for little return.

However - I WOULD definitely stick it in an accumulator to push up the odds. Off the top of my head I can't think of the figures, but in an accumulator a 1/6 favourite adds a bit more value as you adding a multiplier. (Please don't quote me on this - I need to do the maths, but am inebriated and on my phone

A great example of this is Mayweather - Macgregor. You can still get 1.1 or 10-1 on for Mayweather. I even managed to catch a price of 1.12. Those were I think the odds for Berto. A former world champion and veteran of 10s of fights.

Magregor has absolutely no chance in this fight. Never had a pro fight. Had a short undistinguished amateur career. Great UFC fighter and would destroying Floyd in the cage. But boxing? Against one of the best fighters, multiple world champion, distinguished amateur, veteran of 49 pro fights, 90 amateur losing only 6....

Mayweather would win with one arm and one leg'in boxing. This fight is the single BIGGEST fraud ever perpetrated on the paying public. Peter Buckley could be dragged out of the pub and have a better chance. At least he's boxed pro. the fight is realistically 500-1 on minimum. The only chance macgregor has is DQ or Floyd breaking his leg or both arms dislocating.

ADD HIM TO EVERY ACCUMULATOR YOU EVER PLACE. Even if the fight doesn't come off, it'll just become irrelevant to the accumulator.

Happy Easter everybody!

[GlobalBox]

11/10 Khurtsidze against Langford, with Paddy Power, I'm on but not sure how long it will be there

[The Insider]

11/10 Khurtsidze against Langford, with Paddy Power, I'm on but not sure how long it will be there

On it.

[GlobalBox]

11/10 Khurtsidze against Langford, with Paddy Power, I'm on but not sure how long it will be there

On it.

Had to be done, it's the wrong price, it's not impossible for Langford to be better than I think in this fight but the Georgian looks all wrong for him to me and I fully expected Khurtsidze to be a decent fav to be honest.

[JimGunn]

boxingknockout, come on, you posted about your lock in David Haye losing after you added him to your parlays and busting them all and then in the next post you're advising people to stuff Floyd in all their parlays in a bout that may never even happen! I think the Floyd vs McGregor lines are silly- Conor should be more like +1500 and as a big MMA fan I'd probably throw a flyer on him if he was. But I wouldn't touch the heavily juiced Floyd side of this weird matchup either, in a parlay or otherwise!

For you guys on Khurtsidze, he's a skilled fighter and the odds are good at slight + money, but are you not worried about a diminutive 5'4" middleweight against a 6' 0" middleweight?

[GlobalBox]

For you guys on Khurtsidze, he's a skilled fighter and the odds are good at slight + money, but are you not worried about a diminutive 5'4" middleweight against a 6' 0" middleweight?

Tbh Jim not really although it's obviously a way for Langford to win the fight but Douglas was same dimensions as Langford I believe and I believe higher ranked and a better fighter and Khurtsidze did a number on him, it's all about value really as someone said earlier, my take on the value angle is that I always have my prices done and ready and if I see something very different then for me that's where the value comes in and then I back accordingly, obviously does not always work but have never finished a year out of profit in the last 10 years so something goes right most of the time.

I will be very surprised if these prices have not changed quite a bit by fight time and possibly a while before that