Betting advice for AJ vs Klitschko

[samdance]

Both will be cautious early on, will explode in round 4 or 5 and both will become even more cautious after feeling each others power, rounds will be nip and tuck with Joshua winning by a couple of rounds and some folks calling it a robbery.

Joshua Decision

[boxingknockout]

Wlad by Eastern European gorilla gang rape

[afcpaul]

Boxing isn't a great sport to bet on being a 2 horse race, the bookies are the best tipster, as in they get it right with the favourite, a lot.

I don't mean to be disrespectful, but you have no idea what you're talking about. Boxing is a great sport to bet on as it is, in your words, a two horse race. Yes there are many factors involved, but we're dealing with two men. Football eg is about 22 men not including substitutes....

As to the bookies 'mostly getting it right' - if that were the case you could bet on the favourite every time and be in profit. Sports bet making is about probability and though the sports bettor is essentially betting against a 13-15% or more handicap; if he has experience, knowledge and nous, can spot a value or 'wrong' price... that's when you bet.

Check out the betting thread here and you will see loads of underdogs winning and prices changing.

Don't believe the hype. When I used to keep a spreadsheet, I used to win plus 30-40% of my investment; which means if you include the handicap, is between plus 43% and 55% advantage over the bookie price..,,

Hi boxingknockout - just a few comments....
Factors involved - yes, but the outcomes are the same its a win, loss or draw.
Probability, value, I agree, its all about looking for what you see as value, then adjusting your stake accordingly, and having the sense not to bet if you don't find any value.
I bet low value working mans football and horse racing bets each Saturday. I'm looking to be a dit more disciplined and record these bets going forward, but, still consider this as a hobby, and not a means to make a living.
Just out of interest, what's you most profitable boxing bets ?. Is it one boxer to win ?. Or a certain round ?. Generally, where do you find the best bets ?. Big televised cards ?. Or small hall or foreign cards ect ?.

[KiwiRider]

I agree that Wlad is experienced enough to avoid trouble for the first 3-4 rounds, so I would be careful about betting an early AJ finish.
Betting on boxing is not too bad, betting on heavyweights and cruisers is probably the riskiest though.

[kbackup408]

I agree that Wlad is experienced enough to avoid trouble for the first 3-4 rounds, so I would be careful about betting an early AJ finish.
Betting on boxing is not too bad, betting on heavyweights and cruisers is probably the riskiest though.

Wlad stoppage rounds 9-12 sound good pal ?

[KiwiRider]

3 months ago I would have said AJ after 6. Now I have no idea, I haven't seen Wlad this focused in years.

[Oiky]

3 months ago I would have said AJ after 6. Now I have no idea, I haven't seen Wlad this focused in years.

I'm hoping wlads focus pays off in a big way

A man that has got something to prove can be a very dangerous man

[SteveDow]

Had to have a nibble on Wlad at 9/4 and an even smaller nibble on him by stoppage at 7/2. AJ may well just blow him out early on but I genuinely can't make him favourite for this.

Clearly the bookies have priced the fight based on Wlad's poor showing against Fury but Fury is a very awkward customer who is much bigger and more mobile than AJ. He also has the ability to switch to southpaw which is something that genuinely befuddled Wlad.

AJ is, in many ways, the perfect opponent for Wlad, upright stance, fights in straight lines, not exceptional in terms of footspeed and I'd also argue that his power is slightly overrated. He's certainly not a one punch destroyer. That's without even talking about his lack of experience having only had 18 fights, has never gone beyond 8 rounds and has fought no-one remotely in Klitschko's league.

I think if Wlad is still 80% of what he was a couple of years ago then as long as he weathers the early storm then he should win this pretty easily. He seems really focused and definitely has the better skill set.

[littlekinny]

9/1 FOR VLAD TO STOP HIM IN 7-12. THATS WHERE I SEE BEST VALUE.

[Srebmun]

Evening lads, just wanted some advice on the betting for the bout next week I personally feel like it's an even bout but wanted to know what you think ?

I had a dream Klit licked AJ in the first I need to bet on it now! In my dream I was watching it in my livingroom like I will be doing next week and it was one of them vivid ones. They were fighting in a leisure complex that was the only thing.......... And Jimmy Savile was the ref but still.....

That last bit was a joke 20 quid on Wlad in the first. I hope I'm wrong because I want AJ to win and fancy him to do so but I need to bet only because of this faaackin dream!!

I had a dream that Bellew would win v Haye in the 10th.
Didn't think for 1 minute it would happen but put a tenner on it at 100/1 anyway as it was so vivid, so nearly got a grand.

Am waiting for the dream this week for this fight.

[Stuarty]

Evening lads, just wanted some advice on the betting for the bout next week I personally feel like it's an even bout but wanted to know what you think ?

I had a dream Klit licked AJ in the first I need to bet on it now! In my dream I was watching it in my livingroom like I will be doing next week and it was one of them vivid ones. They were fighting in a leisure complex that was the only thing.......... And Jimmy Savile was the ref but still.....

That last bit was a joke 20 quid on Wlad in the first. I hope I'm wrong because I want AJ to win and fancy him to do so but I need to bet only because of this faaackin dream!!

I had a dream that Bellew would win v Haye in the 10th.
Didn't think for 1 minute it would happen but put a tenner on it at 100/1 anyway as it was so vivid, so nearly got a grand.

Am waiting for the dream this week for this fight.

So close! Let us know if you have any premonitions this week

[Srebmun]

I had a dream Klit licked AJ in the first I need to bet on it now! In my dream I was watching it in my livingroom like I will be doing next week and it was one of them vivid ones. They were fighting in a leisure complex that was the only thing.......... And Jimmy Savile was the ref but still.....

That last bit was a joke 20 quid on Wlad in the first. I hope I'm wrong because I want AJ to win and fancy him to do so but I need to bet only because of this faaackin dream!!

I had a dream that Bellew would win v Haye in the 10th.
Didn't think for 1 minute it would happen but put a tenner on it at 100/1 anyway as it was so vivid, so nearly got a grand.

Am waiting for the dream this week for this fight.

So close! Let us know if you have any premonitions this week

On the day I showed my missus the bet and she said to me, 'Nah.. Bellew in the 11th'
She has said Klit in 11 for this one, currently 50/1 with Billy Hill.

[Finn]

Boxing isn't a great sport to bet on being a 2 horse race, the bookies are the best tipster, as in they get it right with the favourite, a lot.

I haven't seen odds yet, but my instinct at the moment is that Joshua will win, between 5-8. But whether I place that bet will depend on the return

It's either Joshua 5-8 or klitschko 8-12 or PTS it's a hard fight to call.

[Ricky_]

Bookies have got the odds on this way wrong. Wlad should be significant favourite here, 1/2 at least.

AJ has only ever fought 1 live opponent in Dylan Whyte and he was Bambi dancing.

This fight is made for Klitchko. Joshua isn't experienced enough to stick with a gameplan, infact, he's never had to adapt in a fight ever. He just plants his feet and bangs away.

He's entirely capable of knocking Klitchko out, maybe he'll get punches home and take Wlad out, but it's more likely he's going to fall into a straight right and he simply doesn't have the experience to deal with getting hurt.

Klitchko KO is about 4/1, that's insane odds imo.

[dams]

Betfred had Klitschko to win inside the distance at 3-1. That's where my money is going, some of which came from backing Bellew stopping Haye.
Jamesmcdonnell commented that I was trying to be smart when the Sunday before the Haye/Bellew I said Haye was a 'shot' fighter and Bellew would stop him. He'll know for sure whether I'm smart or not next Sunday!

We can't say here in comparison of the couple haye/bellew. Haye is not an Olympic champion like Wlad or aj. Wlad is 41, that is the main advantage for aj. But Wlad accurate boxer, he will clinch in any danger, stepping back and running around him. He has dynamic. So I think points Joshua will be fine.